What could affect the price of TIA?

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What are people saying about TIA?

Celestia’s community is divided between hopes for a price breakout and concerns about token unlocks causing selloffs. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Breakout hopes – A technical pattern suggests a possible rise to $4.20.
2. Big investor selloff – Polychain sold $62.5 million worth of TIA tokens, raising fears of more selling.
3. Price battle – The price is struggling around $1.64, a key technical level.

Deep Dive

1. @VipRoseTr: Descending Channel Breakout – Bullish Signal

“Celestia is breaking upper channel resistance at $6.20… Price targets: $2.20 → $4.20🎯”
– @VipRoseTr (12K followers · 8.3K impressions · 2025-09-10 15:19 UTC)
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What this means: Traders see this breakout as a sign of growing momentum, which is positive for Celestia (TIA). However, the current price of $1.67 is still far below the $6.20 resistance level mentioned, meaning the price would need to increase by about 270% to reach those targets.

2. CMC Community: Polychain’s Token Sale – Bearish Signal

“Polychain sold remaining $62.5M TIA stake to Celestia Foundation ahead of staking changes.”
– @CMC Post (5.2M followers · 18K impressions · 2025-07-24 18:51 UTC)
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What this means: This is a negative sign because early investors who bought TIA tokens at much lower prices are selling their holdings. This adds selling pressure to the market. The Celestia Foundation plans to gradually redistribute these tokens through November 2025, which could keep the price under pressure for some time.

3. CMC Analyst: SMA (Simple Moving Average) Battle – Neutral Signal

“TIA’s ability to stay above the 20-day SMA ($1.64) will determine short-term momentum.”
– @CMC Post (5.2M followers · 22K impressions · 2025-07-09 15:27 UTC)
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What this means: The price hovering around the 20-day SMA of $1.64 is a key technical point. If TIA closes above this level, it could trigger a 15% price increase toward $1.88. If it fails, the price might drop back to around $1.50, a 9% decline.

Conclusion

The outlook for Celestia (TIA) is mixed. Technical traders are watching for a breakout, while larger holders are cautious due to upcoming token unlocks that could cause price swings. Keep an eye on the 20-day SMA at $1.64 for clues on price direction, and watch how the Foundation manages token redistribution between August 16 and November 14. Remember, TIA has dropped 92% from its all-time high, showing that even foundational blockchain projects can face big challenges.

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia is managing important buybacks and technical challenges as its token, TIA, tries to gain momentum. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:

1. Polychain Exit & Buyback (July 24, 2025) – The Celestia Foundation bought back $62.5 million worth of TIA tokens from early investor Polychain Capital and plans to redistribute these tokens to new investors.
2. Upbit Suspension (August 1, 2025) – South Korea’s Upbit exchange temporarily stopped TIA deposits and withdrawals due to technical issues, affecting short-term liquidity.
3. Descending Channel Breakout (September 10, 2025) – TIA’s price broke through a key resistance level at $6.20, suggesting a possible positive trend reversal.

Deep Dive

1. Polychain Exit & Buyback (July 24, 2025)

What happened: Celestia repurchased 43.45 million TIA tokens (worth $62.5 million) from Polychain Capital at $1.44 per token. Polychain ended its staking involvement, and the tokens will be gradually unlocked and redistributed between August 16 and November 14, 2025. This move comes after criticism of Polychain selling $242 million in TIA through staking rewards.
Why it matters: This buyback helps spread out token ownership, reducing the risk of too much control by one party. However, new investors receiving these tokens might sell them, creating short-term selling pressure. This is part of Celestia’s effort to manage token supply after TIA’s price dropped 90% from its peak in 2024. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Upbit Suspension (August 1, 2025)

What happened: Upbit paused TIA deposits and withdrawals because of problems syncing blockchain nodes, though trading on the platform continued. About $25 million worth of TIA was temporarily locked on the exchange, increasing price volatility.
Why it matters: This incident highlighted TIA’s dependence on centralized exchanges for liquidity. The issue was resolved within 48 hours, which helped maintain user trust. However, repeated technical problems could discourage larger investors from participating. (CoinMarketCap)

3. Descending Channel Breakout (September 10, 2025)

What happened: TIA’s price broke out of a downward trend that had lasted several months, with increased trading volume. The breakout coincided with the Mamo-1 testnet upgrade, which improved network performance by supporting larger block sizes and faster data throughput.
Why it matters: Traders see this breakout as a positive sign that the price could rise further, targeting between $2.20 and $4.20. However, the overall ecosystem shows weakness, with decentralized finance (DeFi) activity down 95% since March 2024. Investors should watch if TIA can stay above $1.64, which is the 20-day moving average, to confirm the trend. (X (VipRoseTr))

Conclusion

Celestia is working to improve its token distribution and technical performance, but challenges remain with adoption and upcoming token unlocks. The Polychain buyback and recent price movements offer some optimism, but TIA’s future depends on delivering practical uses for its modular blockchain technology. The upcoming Lotus upgrade, which aims to enable better cross-chain compatibility, could be key to attracting more developers and users.

What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is making key updates to improve its network:

1. Proof-of-Governance Model (Q4 2025) – Cutting token issuance from 5% to 0.25% to reduce inflation.
2. Token Unlock Reduction (Late October 2025) – Daily token releases drop from 995,000 to 344,000 TIA, easing selling pressure.
3. Mainnet Beta Upgrades (2026) – Removing old data and adding fraud protection to make running nodes more efficient.

Deep Dive

1. Proof-of-Governance Model (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
Celestia plans to lower the yearly creation of new TIA tokens from 5% to just 0.25%. This change is designed to better match rewards with what the network actually needs (Celestia Blog). It also simplifies the system by moving away from complicated liquid staking derivatives (LSTs), focusing on increasing value for token holders.

Why it matters:
This is good news for TIA holders because fewer new tokens mean less inflation, which can make each token more valuable. On the downside, staking rewards might drop, which could temporarily discourage some validators from participating.

2. Token Unlock Reduction (Late October 2025)

What’s happening:
Starting in late October 2025, the number of TIA tokens released daily into the market will fall by about 65%, from 995,000 to 344,000 tokens (X post).

Why it matters:
This reduction should help stabilize TIA’s price by lowering the amount of tokens being sold. However, since daily transaction fees on the network are still low (around $200), this might limit how much the price can rise.

3. Mainnet Beta Upgrades (2026)

What’s happening:
After the mainnet launches, Celestia will improve its system by pruning old data to reduce storage needs and adding fraud-proof mechanisms to help lightweight nodes operate securely (Celestia Blog).

Why it matters:
These upgrades are positive for the long term because they make the network more efficient and attractive for developers building on Celestia. However, there’s a risk that adoption might not keep pace with these technical improvements.

Conclusion

Celestia’s upcoming changes aim to tighten its token supply while enhancing the network’s technology. Reducing token issuance and daily unlocks should ease market pressure, but the project’s success depends on growing its user base and activity. The big question remains: will lower inflation be enough to offset currently low network usage?

What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s technology has been significantly upgraded to improve its ability to grow, work with other blockchains, and manage its token economy.

1. Matcha Upgrade (July 2025) – Increased block size to 128MB and lowered inflation to 2.5%.
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Added Hyperlane for cross-chain connections and cut TIA inflation by 33%.
3. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 2025) – Suggested changes to staking to boost decentralized finance (DeFi) use.

Deep Dive

1. Matcha Upgrade (July 2025)

Overview:
The Matcha upgrade boosted Celestia’s block size to 128MB, allowing faster data processing up to 1 GB per second. It also cut the yearly increase of TIA tokens in circulation (inflation) in half, down to 2.5%, to make TIA more valuable for DeFi applications.

Details:

• Scalability: Improved how blocks are shared across the network, increasing the max block size from 8MB to 128MB.
• Monetary Policy: Inflation dropped from 5% to 2.5% following CIP-41, aiming for long-term value growth.
• Interoperability: Removed restrictions on token transfers between blockchains using IBC and Hyperlane protocols.

What this means:
This is positive for TIA because bigger blocks support more decentralized apps and rollups, while lower inflation helps keep the token’s value stable. However, smaller token holders might feel the impact of lower staking rewards due to higher fees for validators.

(Source)

2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

Overview:
The Lotus upgrade added Hyperlane, a tool that allows Celestia to connect and transfer tokens directly with other blockchains like Ethereum, Base, and Solana. It also updated how staking rewards work.

Details:

• Hyperlane Integration: Enabled direct TIA transfers across multiple blockchains using Cosmos SDK modules.
• Tokenomics: Reduced annual inflation from 7.2% to about 5% via CIP-29.
• Staking Changes: Locked staking rewards for certain accounts and stopped automatic reward claims to give users more control over taxes.

What this means:
This is neutral for TIA’s value. Cross-chain features open up new uses, but locking rewards limits how quickly holders can access their tokens. The inflation cut balances keeping the network secure with maintaining token scarcity.

(Source)

3. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 2025)

Overview:
John Adler, Celestia’s co-founder, proposed lowering the issuance of new staking tokens from 5% to 0.25% to encourage more active participation in governance.

Details:

• Liquid Staking: Makes it easier to use staked tokens in DeFi applications.
• Revenue Focus: Shifts rewards from new token issuance to fees collected from network transactions.

What this means:
If adopted, this is good news for TIA because fewer new tokens reduce selling pressure. However, the network will need steady transaction activity to keep fee revenue strong.

(Source)

Conclusion

Celestia’s upgrades focus on growing its capacity (128MB blocks), improving connections with other blockchains (Hyperlane), and creating a more sustainable token economy (lower inflation). These changes position TIA as a key modular blockchain platform, but success depends on attracting developers and maintaining transaction fees after inflation decreases.

What to watch: Will lower validator rewards affect network security? And can Hyperlane drive significant cross-chain adoption?

Why did the price of TIA fall?

Celestia (TIA) dropped 2.22% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by about 0.4%. The main reasons include ongoing selling pressure from recently unlocked tokens, weak technical signals, and mixed feelings about upcoming network upgrades.

1. Token Unlock Pressure – Selling continues after recent token releases, including a $62.5 million sale by Polychain Capital.
2. Technical Weakness – The price is struggling to stay above important moving averages, indicating downward momentum.
3. Upgrade Uncertainty – Reactions to Celestia’s "Lotus" upgrade are mixed, despite changes to staking rewards.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Pressure (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Celestia is facing steady selling pressure because of tokens being unlocked and sold. For example, Polychain Capital sold $62.5 million worth of TIA tokens to the Celestia Foundation in July 2025. These tokens are being released gradually between August 16 and November 14, adding about 344,000 TIA tokens to the market every day.

What this means:
When tokens unlock, early investors and venture capitalists often sell them, increasing the supply available and putting downward pressure on the price. Since January 2025, the circulating supply of TIA has grown by 65%, which raises concerns about dilution.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on daily token unlock amounts and wallet activity, especially tokens moving into exchanges.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Signals)

Overview:
TIA is currently trading at around $1.70, which is below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.79 and its 30-day SMA of $1.71. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, showing neither strong buying nor selling momentum. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover but lacks strong follow-through, indicating uncertainty.

What this means:
If TIA falls below the $1.70 support level, it might test the June low of $1.52. The 200-day SMA at $2.31 is far above the current price, reflecting a longer-term bearish trend.

3. Network Upgrade Sentiment (Mixed Reactions)

Overview:
Celestia’s recent "Lotus" upgrade brought changes to staking rewards, such as locking rewards for vesting wallets, and cut inflation by 33%. Despite these improvements, skepticism remains because TIA has dropped 92% from its peak in 2024, and key metrics like DeFi total value locked (TVL) have fallen 95% since March 2024.

What this means:
While the upgrade aims to improve the token’s economic model, traders remain cautious due to low activity on the network and a high circulating supply.

Conclusion

TIA’s recent price drop is driven by a mix of increased token supply from unlocks, weak technical indicators, and cautious market sentiment about the project’s growth. The Lotus upgrade addresses some long-term issues, but short-term price movements will depend on overall market trends and how much new supply enters the market.

Key to watch: Will TIA hold the $1.60–$1.70 support range, or will ongoing token unlocks push it toward yearly lows? Watch daily exchange inflows and shifts in Bitcoin dominance for additional clues.