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Why did the price of TIA go up?

Celestia (TIA) increased by 0.95% to $1.73 in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 0.36%. This price movement shows positive technical momentum and less selling pressure following important updates.

  1. Polychain exit completed – $62.5 million worth of TIA tokens bought back and gradually released
  2. Lotus upgrade effects – Changes to staking rewards reduce selling from speculators
  3. Technical bounce – Neutral RSI (49.5) and bullish MACD crossover suggest short-term upward momentum

Deep Dive

1. Polychain Exit & Tokenomics Reform (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
On July 24, 2025, the Celestia Foundation finished buying back $62.5 million worth of TIA tokens from Polychain, a major investor. These tokens will be released slowly through November 2025, following Polychain’s earlier sales totaling $242 million from staking rewards.

What this means:
At first, this was seen as negative because of the large insider selling. However, the gradual release schedule helps prevent flooding the market with tokens all at once. The Foundation now holds 43.4 million TIA tokens, about 5.5% of the total circulating supply, allowing it to manage token releases carefully.

What to watch:
If the token release speeds up, it could increase selling pressure again.

2. Lotus Upgrade Staking Mechanics (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Celestia’s version 4 "Lotus" upgrade, active since late July 2025, changed how staking rewards are paid out. Now, rewards are locked in proportion to how many tokens a wallet has locked. For example, if half the tokens are locked, only half the rewards can be claimed immediately.

What this means:
This change targets early investors who previously could sell large amounts of staking rewards, which contributed to TIA’s 90% price drop from its 2024 highs. By tying reward access to token lockups, it reduces daily selling pressure from these holders.

3. Technical Rebound (Neutral to Positive)

Overview:
TIA’s technical indicators show mixed signals:

What this means:
The price is testing the 30-day simple moving average at $1.71 with improving momentum. However, the 200-day moving average at $2.26 is still about 30% higher, showing that the long-term trend remains bearish.

Conclusion

TIA’s small price increase reflects a technical bounce and less selling pressure after Polychain’s exit, rather than strong fundamental growth. The Lotus upgrade helps fix past issues with staking rewards, but TIA is still down 92% from its 2024 peak, with $409 million worth of tokens scheduled to unlock through 2027.

Key point to watch: Can TIA stay above the 30-day moving average ($1.71) during the first big unlock on August 16? If not, the price could fall back to July’s low of $1.44.


What could affect the price of TIA?

Celestia’s price is currently influenced by two main forces: improvements to the network and ongoing concerns about token supply.

  1. Matcha Upgrade (Positive) – Cuts inflation in half, improves scalability, and increases cross-chain capabilities.
  2. Token Unlock Risks (Negative) – About 409 million TIA tokens will enter the market by 2027, which could lead to continued selling pressure.
  3. Modular Blockchain Competition (Mixed) – Growing demand for rollups balanced against competition from Ethereum and Avail.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Matcha Upgrade & Monetary Policy (Positive Impact)

What happened: Celestia’s Matcha upgrade, launched in July 2025, reduced the annual inflation rate from 5% to 2.5%. This means fewer new TIA tokens are created each year, making the token more scarce. The upgrade also increased block size from 8MB to 128MB, supporting faster data processing and helping Celestia reach its goal of handling 1GB per second.

Why it matters: Lower inflation means less new supply flooding the market, which can support the token’s value. Larger blocks improve Celestia’s role as a “data availability layer,” which is essential for blockchain projects that rely on it. For example, Ethena’s Layer 1 blockchain has confirmed integration with Celestia, potentially increasing network usage and fees.

2. Token Unlocks & Staking Changes (Negative Impact)

What happened: Early investor Polychain sold $62.5 million worth of TIA tokens in July 2025. The Celestia Foundation is gradually releasing more tokens into circulation through November. The upcoming Lotus upgrade (August 2025) will tie staking rewards to vesting schedules, meaning rewards will be locked up proportionally.

Why it matters: Although the gradual release of tokens helps avoid sudden market dumps, about 344,000 TIA tokens will still unlock daily until 2027 (source). This steady increase in supply could keep selling pressure on the token. The staking changes may reduce how quickly tokens are sold but won’t stop the overall dilution caused by new tokens entering the market.

3. Competition in Modular Blockchains (Mixed Impact)

What happened: Celestia currently holds about 50% of the data availability market with over 30 rollup projects using its network. However, Ethereum’s upcoming danksharding upgrade (testnet expected in Q4 2025) and Polygon’s Avail project are strong competitors.

Why it matters: In the short term, Celestia benefits from growing adoption, such as Monad’s use of the Celenium explorer (source). But if Celestia can’t keep its technical edge over Ethereum and others, its growth potential may be limited.

Conclusion

The future of TIA depends on whether the network’s growth—driven by the Matcha upgrade and increased scalability—can outpace the negative effects of token unlocks. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.64 is a key price level to watch; staying above this could indicate strong buying interest.

Key question: Can the rising daily activity on the network (blob posts have tripled since May) balance out the roughly $14 million per month in selling pressure from token unlocks?


What are people saying about TIA?

The Celestia (TIA) community is actively discussing key topics like technical price movements, large investor actions, and token supply issues. Here’s a quick summary:

  1. Optimism about a price breakout is met with cautious technical signals.
  2. A $62.5 million sell-off by Polychain raises concerns about increased token supply.
  3. Ongoing token unlocks are fueling worries about inflation.
  4. The founder’s $100 million reserve fund helps ease some fears.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Outlook: Bullish Breakout Possible

@VipRoseTr points out a potential breakout from a descending price channel, with a key resistance level at $6.20. If this breakout happens, the price could rise between $2.20 and $4.20, representing a possible 144% gain from current levels ($1.72).
View original post
What this means: While the current price is below the breakout point, if historical trends repeat, there could be significant upside. However, this is not guaranteed and depends on market conditions.

2. Large Investor Exit Raises Supply Concerns

According to CoinMarketCap, Polychain sold its 43.4 million TIA tokens for $62.5 million before changes to staking rules took effect. Additionally, about 995,000 tokens are unlocked daily until 2027.
What this means: When big holders sell large amounts, it can put downward pressure on prices in the short term. However, since the Celestia Foundation bought these tokens, they might manage the supply carefully to avoid market shocks. (source)

3. Tokenomics: Inflation and Supply Dynamics

@kerimcalender highlights that daily token unlocks equal roughly $1.7 million in potential selling pressure. The team still holds enough tokens to operate for six years. There is a proposal to reduce new token issuance from 5% to 0.25% annually, pending an August governance vote.
View original post
What this means: While inflation from new tokens entering the market is a concern, the proposed reduction could significantly lower this pressure if approved.

4. Founder’s Reserve Fund Supports Confidence

CoinMarketCap reports that Mustafa Al-Bassam, Celestia’s founder, has confirmed a $100 million reserve fund. This counters rumors that insiders dumped tokens as the price dropped 92% from its all-time high. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.33 suggest the market is neither oversold nor overbought.
What this means: The strong financial backing contrasts with the weak price performance, indicating the market could either see further selling or start accumulating tokens.

Conclusion

The outlook for Celestia is mixed. The project has solid fundamentals, but token supply and inflation concerns weigh on sentiment. Traders are watching for technical signs of a price reversal, while the community focuses on the upcoming August 15 governance vote that could reduce token issuance and ease selling pressure by over $15 million annually at current prices. This vote will be a key event to monitor for Celestia’s future direction.


What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is navigating some ups and downs with key moves and technical signals. Here’s the quick summary:

  1. Technical Breakout (September 10, 2025) – TIA jumped 17% following positive chart patterns.
  2. Tokenomics Crisis (August 5, 2025) – TIA dropped 90% after a large number of tokens were unlocked and sold.
  3. Strategic Buyback & Upgrades (July 30, 2025) – Celestia bought back $62.5 million worth of tokens and made changes to staking rewards.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakout (September 10, 2025)

What happened:
TIA’s price broke above a downward trend line at $1.72 and surged 17% during the day, with more people trading it. Experts say the price could reach $2.20 if this momentum continues, but some indicators suggest the price might pause or pull back soon.

What it means:
This is a somewhat positive sign for TIA, showing short-term interest from traders. However, trading volume dropped by 41% after the surge, and there’s resistance around $1.80 that could slow further gains. (VipRoseTr)

2. Tokenomics Crisis (August 5, 2025)

What happened:
TIA’s price crashed 90% from its peak in 2024 after Polychain Capital sold 43 million tokens (worth $62.5 million), and a large number of tokens (176 million) were unlocked, increasing the supply dramatically. To ease selling pressure, the Celestia Foundation spread out token releases over time.

What it means:
This is a negative development because the increased supply and weak demand hurt the price. Still, the Foundation’s plan to release tokens gradually from August to November 2025 aims to stabilize the market. (Cryptonews)

3. Strategic Buyback & Upgrades (July 30, 2025)

What happened:
Celestia repurchased the remaining TIA tokens held by Polychain at $1.44 each and introduced the “Lotus” upgrade, which cut inflation by 33% and locked staking rewards for accounts with vesting tokens.

What it means:
This move is neutral to positive for the long term because it reduces selling pressure from early investors. However, TIA’s price fell to $1.77 after the announcement, showing some doubts about whether demand will pick up soon. (Cryptonews)

Conclusion

Celestia is caught between hopeful technical signs and challenges from token supply issues. While the recent breakout shows trader interest, controlling inflation and managing token releases are crucial to offset ongoing supply increases. The big question is whether the growing use of modular blockchains can overcome these hurdles in the last quarter of 2025.


What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s development is moving forward with these key updates:

  1. Lotus Upgrade (Q3 2025) – Improves how Celestia connects with other blockchains and updates staking rules.
  2. Mainnet Beta Enhancements (Q4 2025) – Increases block size and makes nodes run more efficiently.
  3. Proof-of-Governance Model (2026) – Cuts down token inflation and changes how staking rewards work.

Deep Dive

1. Lotus Upgrade (Q3 2025)

Overview: The Lotus upgrade, available on the Mocha testnet since July 2025, adds Hyperlane technology. This lets Celestia’s token, TIA, move easily between Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos blockchains. It also lowers token inflation by 33% and stops automatic claiming of staking rewards.
What this means: This is positive for TIA because better cross-chain use could increase demand for Celestia’s data services. However, if other projects are slow to adopt these features, it could limit growth.

2. Mainnet Beta Enhancements (Q4 2025)

Overview: After launching, Celestia plans to increase block size from 8 MB to 128 MB and improve node storage by removing old data. The Mamo-1 testnet already handles data at 21.33 MB per second, making Celestia a fast and efficient data availability layer.
What this means: This is somewhat positive—bigger blocks help the network handle more data, but there’s a risk that running a node could become too demanding, which might reduce decentralization.

3. Proof-of-Governance Model (2026)

Overview: Celestia is considering switching to a Proof-of-Governance (PoG) system, which would cut new token issuance from 5% to 0.25%. This change would link rewards more closely to how much users participate in the network, and would be decided through community votes called Celestia Improvement Proposals (CIPs) (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This is positive for the long term, as lowering inflation could help stabilize TIA’s value. In the short term, the impact depends on how many people vote and support the change.

Conclusion

Celestia’s roadmap focuses on both technical growth (like the Lotus upgrade and bigger blocks) and economic health (through the PoG model). Its success will depend on how well developers use its modular data availability layer and how the market handles token sales. The big question is whether TIA’s usefulness as a “modular AWS” for blockchains can overcome the challenges of inflation.


What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s recent software updates bring big improvements in how it connects with other blockchains, handles more transactions, and manages its token economy.

  1. Matcha Upgrade (July 2025) – Supports larger blocks (128MB) and easier asset transfers across different blockchains.
  2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Added Hyperlane technology for better TIA token movement between chains.
  3. Inflation & Staking Rewards (June 2025) – Reduced new TIA tokens created and introduced locked staking rewards.

Deep Dive

1. Matcha Upgrade (July 2025)

What it is: The Matcha upgrade increases Celestia’s block size to 128MB, lowers token inflation to 2.5%, and removes limits on moving assets between blockchains.

Key points:

Why it matters: Higher capacity means more apps and rollups can run smoothly, while lower inflation helps keep TIA’s value stable. The ability to move assets freely across chains could bring more liquidity to Celestia.
(Source)

2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

What it is: The Lotus upgrade introduced Hyperlane for better interoperability and changed how staking rewards work.

Key points:

Why it matters: This upgrade expands where TIA can be used but may discourage short-term staking since rewards are locked. Overall, it balances utility with token stability.
(Source)

3. Staking Reward Mechanics (June 2025)

What it is: New rules link staking rewards to lockup periods and require users to claim rewards manually.

Key points:

Why it matters: This reduces the chance of quick sell-offs from staking rewards, supporting long-term holders but limiting short-term liquidity.
(Source)

Conclusion

Celestia’s upgrades focus on improving scalability (Matcha), enhancing cross-chain capabilities (Lotus), and creating a more sustainable token economy (lower inflation and locked rewards). These changes strengthen TIA’s foundation, but the real impact depends on how many developers and users adopt Celestia’s modular blockchain ecosystem. The big question is whether the increased block size will lead to more apps and activity on the network.