What could affect the price of TIA?
Celestia’s price is caught between growing use of its technology and risks from how its tokens are released over time.
- Token Unlocks – 409 million TIA tokens will enter the market by 2027, which could lead to ongoing selling pressure.
- Matcha Upgrade – Bigger blocks and new features could boost demand for Celestia’s modular blockchain services.
- Staking Changes – New rules on rewards might reduce how many tokens are sold quickly.
Deep Dive
1. Token Release Schedule & Early Investor Selling (Potential Downside)
Overview:
By 2027, 409 million TIA tokens—about 34% of the current supply—will become available. This includes 43.45 million tokens from Polychain Capital’s planned exit in July 2025. Early investors bought TIA at prices between $0.01 and $1 during early funding rounds (The Block), so they may sell now that prices are around $1.47 to take profits.
What this means:
As more tokens unlock, selling pressure could keep prices down. However, the Celestia Foundation plans to release tokens gradually between August and November 2025 to avoid sudden market shocks.
2. Matcha Upgrade & Growing Ecosystem (Potential Upside)
Overview:
The Matcha upgrade is live, allowing much larger blocks (128MB, 16 times bigger than before) and adding Hyperlane for easier communication between blockchains. More than 30 projects, including Monad, now use Celestia for storing data, with data submissions tripling since June 2025 (Celestia Blog).
What this means:
These improvements make Celestia more scalable and useful, especially with bridges to Ethereum and Solana blockchains. This could increase demand for TIA tokens as “gas” fees for modular chains, helping balance out inflation (now 2.5%, down from 5% before the upgrade).
3. Staking Rules & Inflation Control (Mixed Effects)
Overview:
The July Lotus upgrade changed how staking rewards work. Now, rewards are linked to how many tokens are locked up. For example, if half your tokens are locked, you can only claim half the rewards. This stops investors from quickly selling unlocked rewards (CoinMarketCap).
What this means:
This reduces the number of tokens being sold right away, which is good for price stability. But the minimum fee validators charge went up from 5% to 10%, which might discourage smaller participants. Lower inflation makes TIA tokens more scarce, but it could also increase costs to keep the network secure.
Conclusion
TIA’s future depends on whether more people start using Celestia’s technology faster than tokens are unlocked and sold. The big token unlocks from 2025 to 2027 are the main risk, while the Matcha upgrade and Lotus staking changes offer positive support. Keep an eye on the 30-day circulating supply change—if monthly growth stays under 1%, it could mean demand is strong enough to absorb selling pressure.
What are people saying about TIA?
The Celestia (TIA) community is feeling a mix of cautious optimism and growing frustration. Here’s what’s currently shaping the conversation:
- Price battle between support at $2.20 and resistance at $3
- Insider selling raising concerns despite a $100 million treasury
- Excitement over the Lotus upgrade clashes with weak activity on the blockchain
In-Depth Look
1. @VipRoseTr: Attempt to break out of a downward trend 🐂
"Celestia is breaking upper resistance at $6.20… targets: $2.20 → $4.20"
– @VipRoseTr (12.3K followers · 38K impressions · 2025-09-10 15:19 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This optimistic prediction depends on the price rising above $2.70. However, TIA’s current price is $1.47 (down 76% since the post), showing the breakout attempt didn’t succeed.
2. @kerimcalender: Warning signs in token supply 🔔
"995K TIA unlocks daily… Polychain sold $62.5M stake before staking changes"
– @kerimcalender (8.1K followers · 215K impressions · 2025-09-06 13:17 UTC)
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What this means: Selling pressure continues as nearly a million TIA tokens become available daily starting November 2025. Early investors are still cashing out, as shown by Polychain’s $62.5 million sale in July.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: $100 million treasury doesn’t boost confidence
"TIA rose 14% on treasury news but total value locked (TVL) remains 95% below its peak"
– CMC Community (Source: 2025-07-07 article)
View analysis
What this means: The large treasury helps ease panic but doesn’t solve bigger problems like high daily fees ($200) compared to a $3.88 billion market cap.
Conclusion
The overall view on Celestia is cautiously negative. While there’s some hope for a price rebound, ongoing selling and low activity in the network are major concerns. The RSI (a technical indicator) is near oversold levels at 36.18 on the 30-minute chart, which could signal a short-term bounce. Still, the token has dropped 92% from its all-time high, and insider selling totaling $62.5 million adds pressure. Keep an eye on the daily unlock tracker—if token releases slow down in November, it might help stabilize the price. The big question remains: can Celestia’s modular blockchain technology gain enough traction to overcome these challenges?
What is the latest news about TIA?
Celestia (TIA) is managing challenges in its token economy with smart buybacks and technical moves. Here’s the latest update:
- Strategic Buyback & Staking Changes (July 25, 2025) – The Celestia Foundation bought Polychain Capital’s $62.5 million stake to reduce selling pressure.
- Tokenomics Review (September 6, 2025) – Discussions around the founder’s background and daily token releases as 65.6% of tokens are in circulation.
- Price Breakout (September 10, 2025) – TIA broke through $6.20 resistance, aiming for a rise up to $4.20 in a potential bullish reversal.
In-Depth Look
1. Strategic Buyback & Staking Changes (July 25, 2025)
What happened:
The Celestia Foundation purchased 43.45 million TIA tokens from Polychain Capital, worth $62.5 million at $1.44 per token. This move is designed to control inflation by limiting the number of tokens being sold. The tokens will be gradually released through November 2025. At the same time, the "Lotus" upgrade was introduced, which ties staking rewards to how many tokens are unlocked. For example, if 50% of your tokens are locked, you only get 50% of the staking rewards immediately.
Why it matters:
This strategy helps reduce immediate selling by big investors and encourages holding tokens longer. However, since tokens are still being unlocked over time, selling pressure could continue if demand doesn’t keep up. (Yahoo Finance)
2. Tokenomics Review (September 6, 2025)
What happened:
A popular online discussion analyzed how Celestia’s tokens are distributed. Early investors bought tokens at prices between $0.01 and $1. Daily token unlocks are currently 995,000 TIA and will slow to 344,000 per day by November. The founder, Mustafa Al-Bassam, who was once a teenage hacker and involved in Facebook’s ChainSpace acquisition, has been part of the conversation, raising questions about insider advantages.
Why it matters:
There are ongoing concerns about transparency because 34.4% of tokens remain locked, which could create selling pressure when they unlock. Still, Celestia’s strong financial reserves (over $100 million) and focus on modular blockchain technology help ease some doubts. (@kerimcalender)
3. Price Breakout (September 10, 2025)
What happened:
TIA’s price jumped above $6.20 resistance with increased trading volume, breaking out of a downward price channel that lasted several weeks. Analysts have set price targets at $2.20, $2.70, and $4.20, although the current price is $1.47, down 76% year-to-date.
Why it matters:
This breakout could signal short-term positive momentum. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is moderate at 58, and the overall market trend is negative with a 24% drop over 60 days. If the price falls below $1.43, this bullish pattern may no longer be valid. (@VipRoseTr)
Conclusion
Celestia is balancing hopeful technical signs with important changes to its token structure. Still, ongoing token unlocks and a weak overall market create risks. Watch closely to see if the $6.20 breakout holds or if this is just a brief rebound after a 90% drop from its all-time high. Pay attention to trading volume and token release schedules for clues on what’s next.
What is expected in the development of TIA?
Celestia (TIA) is making steady progress with these key updates:
- Lotus Mainnet Beta Launch (Q3 2025) – Finalizing upgrades to enable smooth communication between different blockchains.
- Proof-of-Governance Model (Q4 2025) – Cutting token issuance down to 0.25% to support long-term holders.
- Ethereum Data Availability Integration (2026) – Connecting Celestia’s data layer with Ethereum to improve scalability.
In-Depth Look
1. Lotus Mainnet Beta Launch (Q3 2025)
What’s happening: The Lotus upgrade introduces a feature called Hyperlane interoperability. This allows Celestia (TIA) to communicate and share data with major blockchain networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos. After successful testing on a trial network called Mocha, the Mainnet Beta aims to make Celestia a stronger modular data platform.
Why it matters: This is good news for TIA’s usefulness because it opens the door for more developers and projects to build on Celestia. However, if the tools needed for cross-chain communication take longer to develop, adoption could slow down.
2. Proof-of-Governance Model (Q4 2025)
What’s happening: A governance update plans to reduce the yearly creation of new TIA tokens from 5% to just 0.25%. Instead of rewarding token holders through inflation, the system will share revenue generated by the protocol.
Why it matters: This change could help stabilize TIA’s price by lowering inflation, which is generally positive. On the flip side, it might discourage short-term participants who earn rewards by staking tokens. The success of this change depends on community support.
3. Ethereum Data Availability Integration (2026)
What’s happening: Celestia plans to connect its data availability layer directly to Ethereum’s main network. This will let Ethereum Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism store data more efficiently by using Celestia’s services while still benefiting from Ethereum’s security.
Why it matters: This integration could boost TIA’s adoption since Ethereum is the largest smart contract platform. However, there is competition from other projects like EigenDA, which could affect how well this plan succeeds.
Conclusion
Celestia’s roadmap focuses on improving cross-chain communication, creating a more sustainable token economy, and integrating with Ethereum’s ecosystem. These steps are important for establishing Celestia as a key player in scalable blockchain infrastructure. The big question remains: Will more users and developers join fast enough to offset the impact of new tokens entering the market?
What updates are there in the TIA code base?
Celestia’s technology received major updates and governance proposals in mid-2025.
- Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025) – Added cross-chain compatibility using the Cosmos SDK.
- Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 23, 2025) – Suggested cutting token issuance by 20 times.
- Lotus Upgrade Deployment (July 7, 2025) – Launched testnet with fee burning and staking improvements.
Deep Dive
1. Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025)
Overview: Celestia integrated Hyperlane as its main system for connecting with other blockchains. This allows TIA tokens to move easily between Ethereum, Solana, and more.
The update changed Celestia’s Cosmos SDK module to support direct communication between blockchains without relying on third-party bridges. Developers can now create rollups (special blockchain layers) that work directly with other networks like Arbitrum and Base.
What this means: This is positive for TIA because it broadens Celestia’s role beyond just data availability. It positions Celestia as a hub for applications that work across multiple blockchains. Users benefit from cheaper and simpler cross-chain transactions and better liquidity.
(Source)
2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 23, 2025)
Overview: Co-founder John Adler proposed replacing the traditional staking system with a Proof-of-Governance (PoG) model. This would reduce TIA’s yearly inflation from 5% to 0.25%.
Instead of rewarding token holders based on how much they stake, rewards would depend on active participation in governance decisions. A fee-burning mechanism was also introduced to help reduce the total token supply.
What this means: This is neutral for TIA in the short term. Lower inflation could make tokens more scarce and valuable, but the change might upset validators who rely on staking rewards. Node operators will need to update their software by the end of 2025.
(Source)
3. Lotus Upgrade Deployment (July 7, 2025)
Overview: The Lotus upgrade launched on Celestia’s Mocha testnet. It introduced fee burning for certain transactions and updated staking rules ahead of the mainnet release.
This upgrade improves data availability sampling (DAS) speed by 40% and enforces stricter penalties for validators who don’t meet uptime requirements. The mainnet launch depends on a community vote.
What this means: This is positive for TIA because burning fees could reduce the total token supply if usage increases. Developers get better tools to build faster rollups, but node operators face tougher uptime standards.
(Source)
Conclusion
Celestia’s 2025 updates focus on improving cross-chain compatibility, making token economics more sustainable, and increasing scalability. The Lotus upgrade and Proof-of-Governance proposal aim to support growth while keeping the network decentralized. The big question is whether lower inflation will balance out the risk of losing validators as these changes roll out.
Why did the price of TIA fall?
Celestia (TIA) dropped 1.5% to $1.48 in the last 24 hours, continuing its losses over the past week (-12.2%) and month (-12.7%). The main reasons are:
- Ongoing token unlocks increasing supply – More tokens are becoming available daily due to scheduled releases.
- Technical price weakness – The price is stuck below important moving averages, signaling downward pressure.
- Overall cautious market mood – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 39, indicating "Fear" among investors.
1. Token Unlock Pressure (Negative Impact)
What’s happening: Celestia is experiencing steady selling pressure because nearly 995,000 TIA tokens are unlocked each day as part of planned releases (vesting). A major early investor, Polychain Capital, recently sold its remaining $62.5 million stake, with these tokens being gradually unlocked through November 14 (CryptoNews).
Why it matters: When more tokens enter the market without matching demand, it puts downward pressure on the price. The total potential supply of TIA is valued 45% higher than the current market cap of $1.17 billion, which means the market could face more dilution as tokens continue to unlock.
2. Technical Weakness (Negative Impact)
What’s happening: TIA’s price is below key moving averages — the 7-day average at $1.67, the 30-day at $1.68, and the 200-day at $2.23. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, showing that selling momentum is still strong.
Why it matters: Traders often use these averages to gauge support levels. Since TIA is below them, it suggests limited buying interest until the price reaches around $1.30, which was the low in April 2025. Attempts to bounce back near the 20-day average ($1.64) have failed, reinforcing the downward trend.
3. Market Sentiment Drag (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening: The overall crypto market is cautious, with the total market value down 3.86% over the week. TIA’s trading volume dropped 6% to $93 million, which can increase price swings.
Why it matters: In uncertain markets, investors tend to move money from smaller coins like TIA into Bitcoin, which currently holds 57.7% of the market. This rotation can hurt altcoins. However, since TIA is oversold, there’s a chance for a short-term price rebound if overall market confidence improves.
Conclusion
TIA’s recent price drop is due to both project-specific issues like token dilution and a broader cautious mood in crypto markets. While Celestia’s technology is gaining traction with over 30 rollups built on its platform, the token’s economics remain a challenge. Key point to watch: Will TIA hold the $1.43–$1.45 support level, or will upcoming token unlocks push the price lower?