Why did the price of TIA fall?
Celestia (TIA) dropped 6.63% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.12%. Here’s why:
- Global trade tensions – President Trump’s escalation of trade disputes caused investors to pull back from riskier assets like crypto.
- Technical weakness – TIA fell below a key support level at $1.08, signaling more selling pressure.
- Token supply increase – Recent token unlocks and strategic sales are weighing on investor confidence.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Rising Geopolitical Risks (Negative Impact)
Summary:
Markets reacted strongly after President Trump threatened on October 14 to stop importing Chinese cooking oil, seen as a sign of worsening trade tensions. This led to $715 million in crypto liquidations within 24 hours (CoinJournal). Celestia (TIA) fell alongside Bitcoin (-2.4%) and Ethereum (-3.3%).
What this means:
Even though Celestia promotes a modular blockchain approach, it’s not immune to big economic shocks. Trading volume for TIA dropped 45.75% to $94.5 million, showing less buying interest as investors avoid risk.
What to watch:
Keep an eye on November 1, when Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on China could take effect (currently about a 10% chance according to Polymarket).
2. Technical Indicators Point Down (Negative Impact)
Summary:
TIA’s price fell below its 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.08 and is trading below key moving averages (7-day average: $1.17; 30-day average: $1.45). The MACD indicator (-0.028) shows increasing downward momentum.
What this means:
The price chart favors sellers until TIA can climb back above $1.20 (the 23.6% Fibonacci level). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.37 suggests there’s still room for the price to fall before it becomes oversold.
Key level:
If TIA closes below $1.00, it could revisit its October 10 low of $0.27.
3. Token Unlocks Add Selling Pressure (Negative Impact)
Summary:
On October 5, Celestia unlocked 9.62 million TIA tokens (worth about $10.5 million) as part of a larger $1 billion+ token release scheduled for October and November (Cointribune). This follows Polychain’s exit in July, when it sold its $62.5 million stake back to the Celestia Foundation.
What this means:
Tokens released to investors and the team may be sold in a weak market, increasing supply and putting downward pressure on price. The circulating supply has grown 38% this year to 816 million TIA, which dilutes the value of each token.
Conclusion
Celestia’s recent price drop is due to a combination of global economic uncertainty, technical selling signals, and increased token supply. While adoption of modular blockchain technology continues (for example, through Hyperlane integration), short-term price movement will likely depend on Bitcoin holding above $110,000.
Key event to watch: Will TIA maintain the important $1.00 level during the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 16?
What could affect the price of TIA?
TIA is facing a mix of changes from protocol upgrades and broader economic risks that could cause price swings.
- Matcha Upgrade – Boosts scalability and cuts inflation to 2.5%, which may reduce token supply
- Token Unlocks – 9.62 million TIA tokens will become available in October, possibly increasing selling pressure
- Macro Risks – Ongoing US-China trade tensions could impact overall crypto market liquidity
Deep Dive
1. Matcha Upgrade Impact (Positive Outlook)
Overview:
Celestia’s upcoming v6 “Matcha” upgrade will soon launch on the mainnet. It increases block sizes to 128MB, which is 16 times larger than before, allowing more data to be processed. It also cuts the annual inflation rate in half to 2.5%. Additionally, it removes restrictions on cross-chain token transfers, making TIA a key player in routing data across different blockchains.
What this means:
Lower inflation means fewer new tokens are created, making existing tokens more scarce. The improved ability to transfer tokens across chains could increase demand for the network’s data storage space, known as blobspace. Similar changes in other projects, like Ethereum’s EIP-1559 upgrade, have historically led to higher asset values when adoption grows.
2. Token Unlocks & Staking Changes (Potential Downside)
Overview:
In October 2025, 9.62 million TIA tokens (worth about $10.5 million at $1.09 per token) will be unlocked. This is part of a larger wave of crypto token unlocks exceeding $1 billion. In July, the Lotus upgrade introduced changes that lock staking rewards according to vesting schedules to discourage quick selling.
What this means:
The large token unlock could temporarily push prices down if there isn’t enough demand to absorb the new supply. However, the staking changes may help reduce selling pressure over time. For example, when Polychain redistributed $62.5 million worth of TIA (The Block), the market reacted with a 5.2% price drop after the announcement.
3. Macro Liquidity Risks (Mixed Signals)
Overview:
The total value of the global crypto market dropped by 9.48% last week amid renewed trade tensions between the US and China. TIA’s price fell sharply from its 2024 high of $20.86 to $1.09, partly due to forced liquidations in the market.
What this means:
As a mid-sized token, TIA is sensitive to broader economic shocks. The Fear & Greed Index at 37/100 shows cautious investor sentiment, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) between 39-41 suggests the token might be oversold. If Bitcoin (BTC) recovers above $117,000, it could help lift prices of alternative coins like TIA.
Conclusion
TIA’s future price depends on how well its modular blockchain technology is adopted versus the impact of economic challenges and token unlocks. The Matcha upgrade and staking reforms provide solid support, but escalating trade tensions or slower adoption of rollup technologies could prolong price declines.
Key question: Will the October token unlock lead to a “sell the news” reaction, or will growth in modular blockchain technology balance out the increased supply?
What are people saying about TIA?
Celestia’s TIA token is showing mixed signals as traders watch important price levels. Here’s the latest:
- Polychain’s $62.5 million exit raises concerns about insider control
- The $1.50 to $1.64 price range is key in short-term trading
- Excitement around modular blockchains meets slow real-world usage
In-Depth Look
1. Strategic Buyback Raises Questions
John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) highlights that the Celestia Foundation recently bought back Polychain’s remaining $62.5 million stake in TIA ahead of planned changes to staking rules.
See original post
What this means: This move reduces the risk of a large sell-off from Polychain but also concentrates token control in the foundation’s hands. Some see this as a positive step for stability, while others worry about centralization.
2. Price Battle Around Key Moving Average
The CoinMarketCap community points out that TIA’s price is struggling around its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $1.64.
See analysis
What this means: After a 17% price jump midweek, TIA pulled back sharply. Traders are watching the $1.50 to $1.64 range closely. Holding above $1.50 is important to avoid falling back toward yearly lows.
3. Modular Blockchain Promise vs. Reality
Blockchain analyst Natalie (@natalieonchain) compares Celestia to “the AWS of modular blockchains,” praising its data availability layer that helps developers build cheaper Layer 2 and Layer 3 solutions.
[See original post](https://x.com/natalieonchain/status/1965840088006558163)
What this means: While the technology is promising, actual usage is still low, with total value locked (TVL) at just $2.3 million. This gap between hype and adoption is something to watch.
Summary
Overall, opinions on Celestia are mixed. The project’s vision for modular blockchains is exciting, but concerns remain about token distribution and insider moves. The foundation’s $100 million treasury adds some stability, but TIA needs to break above $1.64 to improve market confidence. Keep an eye on the upcoming Lotus upgrade (which changes staking rules) and whether daily transactions stay above 400,000 to see if real adoption is growing.
What is the latest news about TIA?
Celestia (TIA) is experiencing ups and downs due to big economic events and fragile recoveries. Here’s the latest update:
- Price Rebounds to $1 After Falling to $0.27 (October 14, 2025) – TIA bounced back from a major low, but ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions limited further gains.
- Polychain Sells $62.5M Stake to Celestia Foundation (July 24, 2025) – An early investor sold a large portion of their holdings, raising concerns about continued selling pressure.
- Lotus Upgrade Adds Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025) – This update improves TIA’s ability to work across different blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.
In-Depth Look
1. Price Rebounds to $1 After Falling to $0.27 (October 14, 2025)
What happened:
TIA’s price dropped sharply by 80% to $0.27 on October 10, following a broader market crash triggered by Bitcoin falling below $105,000. By October 14, the price recovered to $1.26 but then slipped back to $1.09 due to fears about the U.S.-China trade war, including tariff threats from former President Trump. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 suggests the coin was oversold and is seeing some relief, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative.
What this means for investors:
The rebound shows some short-term buying interest, but ongoing economic uncertainty and lower trading volume (down 30% to $112 million in 24 hours) limit further price increases. If TIA can’t hold above $1, it might drop again to around $0.90. (CoinJournal)
2. Polychain Sells $62.5M Stake to Celestia Foundation (July 24, 2025)
What happened:
Polychain Capital, an early investor, sold its remaining 43.45 million TIA tokens worth $62.5 million to the Celestia Foundation. This ended Polychain’s role as a major validator for the network. The tokens will be released gradually through November 2025 to avoid sudden market shocks.
What this means for investors:
Although the gradual release helps prevent a sudden price drop, it means selling pressure will continue for several months. Polychain had already earned over $80 million from staking rewards, highlighting the risks when early investors hold large stakes in Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks. (The Block)
3. Lotus Upgrade Adds Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025)
What happened:
Celestia’s version 4 “Lotus” upgrade integrated Hyperlane, a protocol that allows TIA to work directly on other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. The update also lowered staking inflation from 5% to 0.25%, meaning fewer new tokens are created as rewards.
What this means for investors:
This upgrade improves TIA’s usefulness as a token that can be used across multiple blockchains, which could attract developers building new blockchain projects. However, adoption is still low, with total value locked (TVL) at $2.3 million compared to a peak of $64 million in 2024. (CoinMarketCap)
Conclusion
TIA’s future depends on overall economic stability and how widely its technology is adopted. The Lotus upgrade improves its long-term potential, but ongoing token releases and geopolitical risks keep selling pressure high. The key question is whether Celestia’s modular blockchain system can gain enough traction before concerns about inflation and market uncertainty return.
What is expected in the development of TIA?
Celestia (TIA) is making steady progress with key updates planned:
- Lotus Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025) – Finalizing cross-chain connections and updating staking rules.
- Mamo-1 Testnet Expansion (2026) – Increasing block size to 128 MB to support more activity.
- Proof-of-Governance Update (Q1 2026) – Cutting token issuance and boosting revenue from data availability fees.
In-Depth Look
1. Lotus Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025)
What’s Happening:
The Lotus upgrade, already live on the Mocha testnet since July 2025, aims to reduce the inflation of TIA tokens by about one-third. It will also stop automatic claiming of staking rewards and connect Celestia with other major blockchain networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos through Hyperlane technology.
Why It Matters:
This upgrade should make TIA more useful by improving how it works with other blockchains and reducing the pressure to sell tokens from staking rewards. However, if the mainnet launch is delayed, it could keep the token’s price under pressure, especially since TIA has dropped significantly from its 2024 high.
2. Mamo-1 Testnet Expansion (2026)
What’s Happening:
The Mamo-1 testnet is increasing its block size from 8 MB to 128 MB, allowing it to process data faster—up to 21.33 MB per second. This helps support more frequent transactions and improves how quickly blocks are shared across the network.
Why It Matters:
Bigger blocks can attract more developers and users, which is good for growth. But there’s a risk that running larger blocks could limit who can operate nodes, potentially centralizing the network. If successful, Celestia could become a key platform for Ethereum Layer 2 solutions like Eclipse and Noble.
3. Proof-of-Governance Update (Q1 2026)
What’s Happening:
Celestia co-founder John Adler has proposed a new Proof-of-Governance system that would cut token issuance from 5% to just 0.25%. This change would tie staking rewards more closely to active participation in governance rather than just holding tokens.
Why It Matters:
In the short term, this might upset validators who earn less from staking. But in the long run, it encourages earning rewards from network usage fees instead of inflation, which could strengthen TIA’s value and sustainability.
Summary
Celestia’s roadmap combines technical improvements with economic changes to shift from a speculative token to a foundational modular blockchain platform. With over $100 million in reserves and growing use of its data availability services, the big question is whether TIA’s practical benefits can overcome the selling pressure from token unlocks.
What updates are there in the TIA code base?
Celestia’s latest updates focus on improving how its network connects with others, adjusting token economics, and changing staking rules to support long-term growth.
- Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025) – Makes transferring Celestia’s token, TIA, easier across different blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.
- Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 23, 2025) – Suggests cutting new token creation by 95% to control inflation.
- Staking Reward Locking (July 25, 2025) – Introduces new rules that link staking rewards to how many tokens are unlocked and available to users.
Deep Dive
1. Hyperlane Integration (May 24, 2025)
What happened: Celestia’s Lotus upgrade added Hyperlane, a tool that helps different blockchains talk to each other. This allows TIA tokens to move smoothly between Celestia and other networks like Ethereum and Solana.
By using Hyperlane’s technology built on the Cosmos SDK, developers can now create applications (called rollups) that work across multiple blockchains without needing extra bridges, which can be slow or risky.
Why it matters: This makes TIA more useful beyond just Celestia’s own network. As more blockchains connect with Celestia, demand for TIA could grow. (Source)
2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 23, 2025)
What happened: The team behind Celestia proposed switching from the usual staking system to a Proof-of-Governance (PoG) model. Instead of earning rewards just by holding and staking tokens, rewards would depend on active participation in network decisions.
This change aims to reduce the yearly creation of new TIA tokens from 5% down to 0.25%, helping to slow inflation while keeping the network secure.
Why it matters: In the short term, this might cause some uncertainty among token holders who stake their tokens. But in the long run, it could make TIA more valuable by controlling supply and encouraging community involvement. (Source)
3. Staking Reward Locking (July 25, 2025)
What happened: After the Lotus upgrade, staking rewards are now partially locked based on how many tokens a user has unlocked. For example, if a user has only half their TIA tokens unlocked, only half of their staking rewards will be immediately available.
This aims to reduce the chance that large token holders quickly sell their rewards, which can cause price drops.
Why it matters: This may limit how much liquid TIA is available in the short term, which could be seen as a downside. However, it supports price stability over time by discouraging quick sell-offs. (Source)
Conclusion
Celestia is working to make its network more connected and its token economy more sustainable. The big question is whether lowering inflation through Proof-of-Governance will balance out any negative effects from stricter staking rules that might push some validators away. Overall, these changes aim to create a healthier ecosystem for developers and investors alike.