Why did the price of TIA fall?

Celestia (TIA) dropped 0.68% in the last 24 hours, trading at $1.01. This small decline fits with overall market uncertainty and technical challenges. Key points to know:

1. Global Trade Issues – Ongoing US-China trade tensions are making investors cautious.
2. Technical Resistance – TIA is facing selling pressure near $1.08, a key technical level.
3. New Investment Product – Bitwise’s Celestia Staking ETP hasn’t yet boosted buying interest.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Global Trade Concerns Affecting Market (Negative Impact)

Summary:
The crypto market remains sensitive after former President Trump’s October 14 announcement about stopping Chinese cooking oil imports, which raised fears of a renewed trade war. Bitcoin fell 2.4% on this news, pulling other cryptocurrencies, including TIA, down. TIA tested support at $0.90 before bouncing back.

What this means:
TIA’s price tends to move closely with Bitcoin (correlation of 0.87 over 30 days), so when big events shake Bitcoin, TIA feels the impact too. Even though TIA has bounced 15% from its low on October 10 ($0.27), ongoing geopolitical risks are holding back stronger gains.

What to watch:

• Updates on US-China trade negotiations, with the next talks expected around October 20.
• Whether Bitcoin can maintain support around $110,000.

2. Technical Resistance at Key Price Points (Mixed Impact)

Summary:
TIA is encountering resistance near $1.08, which is a significant technical level based on its recent price drop. It’s also near its 7-day moving average at $1.06. Technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 34.18 suggest neutral momentum, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows ongoing bearish signals.

What this means:
Investors are likely taking profits near these resistance levels after TIA’s recent weekly gain of 8.17%. If TIA can break above $1.20 (its 200-day moving average), it might signal a positive trend reversal. If not, the price could fall back to test support at $0.90.

Key level to watch:

• Support at $0.90, which is also a psychological price point for investors.

3. Bitwise’s Staking ETP Launch Has Limited Impact (Neutral)

Summary:
On October 16, Bitwise introduced a Celestia Staking ETP (TIAB), which lets institutional investors earn staking rewards on TIA. However, trading volume is low at $49 million over 24 hours, down 58% from the previous week.

What this means:
While the ETP makes it easier for institutions to invest in TIA staking, it hasn’t yet stopped selling pressure from individual investors or token holders unlocking their coins. Celestia’s 24-hour turnover ratio of 5.95% shows moderate trading activity but no big surge in demand.

Conclusion

The recent dip in TIA reflects a cautious crypto market and profit-taking near key technical resistance. Although the new ETP adds long-term value, short-term sentiment is dominated by global trade worries and upcoming token unlocks totaling $13 million in October.

Key question: Can TIA hold the $0.90 support level if Bitcoin falls below $110,000?

What could affect the price of TIA?

TIA’s price is caught between growing use of modular blockchains and risks from token supply.

1. Modular Rollup Growth – Over 30 blockchains use Celestia’s data layer, boosting demand for TIA (Positive)
2. Token Unlock Pressure – Daily token releases (344K TIA until Dec 2025) could lead to oversupply (Negative)
3. Staking Changes – The Lotus upgrade ties rewards to vesting schedules to reduce selling (Mixed)

In-Depth Analysis

1. Modular Rollup Adoption (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Celestia’s modular design supports more than 30 rollups (like Hyperliquid and Eclipse) that pay fees in TIA for data services. The recent launch of the Bitwise Celestia Staking ETP (Foresight News) and integration with Hyperlane for cross-chain communication could speed up developer interest and use.

What this means:
As more rollups launch, TIA’s role as the fee token grows. If monthly rollup launches increase by 15-20% (as seen in Q3 2025), demand for TIA could stay strong, supporting its recent weekly price gains of about 7.6%.

2. Token Unlocks & Investor Selling (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Polychain Capital sold its last $62.5 million worth of TIA in July 2025 (The Block), while daily token unlocks continue until early 2026. The current inflation rate is around 8% annually.

What this means:
Past data shows TIA’s price dropped 26% during heavy unlock periods (June-July 2025). With 344,000 tokens entering the market daily until December, the price may struggle to break above $1.20 unless demand grows faster than supply.

3. Staking Reward Changes (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Lotus upgrade (rolled out in late July 2025) changes staking rewards so they are locked in proportion to how many tokens are vested. For example, if a wallet has 50% of its tokens locked, it can only claim 50% of staking rewards immediately. This aims to reduce selling pressure from early investors cashing out rewards.

What this means:
This could help stabilize prices over time, but short-term uncertainty remains. Technical indicators like RSI (34.18) and MACD (-0.0244) still suggest bearish momentum, meaning traders are waiting for clearer signs that liquid supply is shrinking.

Conclusion

TIA’s future depends on whether growing adoption of modular blockchains can outweigh ongoing selling pressure. The $100 million ecosystem fund and new ETP listing are positive factors, but the token is still down 83% from its 2024 peak.

Key factor to watch: The rate at which TIA is burned (removed from circulation) after the Lotus upgrade. A steady monthly reduction of 5% or more in circulating supply could signal a price recovery.

What are people saying about TIA?

The Celestia (TIA) community is divided between those hopeful for a technical rebound and others skeptical due to recent insider activity. Here’s what’s currently happening:

1. Polychain’s $62.5 million exit raises concerns about centralization
2. Price is struggling between $1.50 support and $1.64 resistance
3. Network upgrades aim to reduce inflation, but overall fundamentals remain weak

In-Depth Look

1. Insider Selloff Shakes Confidence

Polychain, a major investor, sold its remaining $62.5 million stake in Celestia Foundation just before changes to staking rules took effect.
(Source: CoinMarketCap, July 24, 2025)
What this means: This is generally seen as a negative sign for TIA. Large investors selling off can increase selling pressure and raise concerns about how tokens are distributed and unlocked over time.

2. Technical Analysis: Conflicting Signals

Some traders are excited about a potential breakout above $6.20, targeting prices between $2.20 and $4.20.
(Source: Twitter, September 10, 2025)
What this means: These price targets don’t match TIA’s current price around $1.01, suggesting the chart might be outdated or inaccurate. So, while the technical setup looks positive, it may not reflect reality.

3. Fundamentals vs. Speculation

The community sentiment is low, but recent upgrades like the Lotus update aim to reduce inflation to 0.25% and introduce token burning.
(Source: Twitter, July 6, 2025)
What this means: This is a neutral signal. The upgrades are designed to reduce selling pressure by linking staking rewards to token unlock status. However, daily network fees remain low (around $200), indicating limited real-world use despite some growth in data activity.

Conclusion

The outlook for Celestia (TIA) is mixed. Technical traders are watching the $1.50 support level closely, while network upgrades are trying to improve fundamentals amid concerns about venture capital exits. Keep an eye on the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.64 this week. A sustained move above this could bring relief, but failure to hold it might lead to testing the $1.30 low seen earlier in 2025. With staking mechanics revamped in August, the question remains: Is this the moment the “modular blockchain” concept finally takes off?

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is navigating a bumpy market with growing interest from big investors and some sharp price swings. Here’s the latest:

1. Bitwise Launches TIA Staking ETP (October 16, 2025) – A new investment product listed in Paris makes it easier for institutions to invest in TIA and earn rewards.
2. TIA Price Recovers to $1 After Big Drop (October 14, 2025) – After falling 73%, TIA bounced back, but risks from global economic tensions remain.
3. Polychain Sells $62.5 Million in TIA Tokens (July 24, 2025) – The Celestia Foundation bought these tokens to prevent market disruption and plans to release them slowly.

In-Depth Look

1. Bitwise Launches TIA Staking ETP (October 16, 2025)

What happened: Bitwise Europe introduced the Celestia Staking ETP (TIAB) on the Paris Pan-European Exchange. This product lets investors gain exposure to TIA while earning staking rewards, which are automatically added to their holdings daily. This makes it easier for large investors to get involved.

Why it matters: This is a positive sign for TIA, showing growing confidence from institutional investors. It could bring more money into the project. However, the overall success depends on the general mood in the crypto market, which is still uncertain (Foresight News).

2. TIA Price Recovers to $1 After Big Drop (October 14, 2025)

What happened: TIA’s price dropped sharply to $0.27 on October 10 during a market-wide sell-off but then climbed back up to $1 by October 14. Technical signals suggest the selling pressure is easing, though there is resistance around $1.20.

Why it matters: The rebound shows some short-term optimism among traders. To keep this momentum, TIA needs to stay above the $1 level. However, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China could cause more price swings (CoinJournal).

3. Polychain Sells $62.5 Million in TIA Tokens (July 24, 2025)

What happened: Polychain Capital sold its remaining TIA tokens to the Celestia Foundation for $62.5 million. The Foundation plans to release these tokens gradually from August to November 2025 to avoid flooding the market.

Why it matters: This move helps prevent a sudden drop in TIA’s price caused by a large token sale. It also aims to spread out token ownership more evenly. Still, some investors are cautious about the impact of these upcoming token releases (The Block).

Conclusion

Celestia’s future depends on balancing growing interest from big investors with challenges from the broader economy and token supply management. The Bitwise ETP launch is a sign of progress, but TIA’s ongoing recovery will rely on stable market conditions and careful handling of token releases. The big question remains: Can TIA keep its momentum if Bitcoin faces new geopolitical challenges?

What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s roadmap is focused on three main areas: scaling the network, improving governance, and growing its ecosystem.

1. 1 GB Block Scaling (2026) – A major technical upgrade to handle much larger amounts of data, helping the network process transactions faster.
2. Proof-of-Governance Transition (Q4 2025) – Changing how staking rewards work to reduce token inflation and encourage community participation.
3. Ecosystem Expansion Grants (Ongoing) – Funding projects that build on Celestia, making it easier for developers to create new applications.

Deep Dive

1. 1 GB Block Scaling (2026)

Overview:
Celestia plans to increase the size of its data blocks to 1 gigabyte by improving how data is sampled and optimizing the network. This upgrade aims to support data throughput equivalent to over 1 million transactions per second, similar to the scale of payment networks like Visa (Celestia Blog).

What this means:
This is good news for the demand of Celestia’s token, TIA, because more data usage means more fees paid in TIA. However, there are risks such as potential delays in development and competition from other projects like Avail that offer similar solutions.

2. Proof-of-Governance Transition (Q4 2025)

Overview:
John Adler, one of Celestia’s co-founders, suggested replacing the current 5% annual token issuance with a new system called Proof-of-Governance. Instead of rewarding validators with new tokens, 0.25% annual inflation would be tied to active participation in governance decisions (Binance Square).

What this means:
In the short term, this might reduce the number of tokens validators sell, which could be neutral or slightly negative for price. But in the long run, it could strengthen the network by encouraging more community involvement, which is positive.

3. Ecosystem Expansion Grants (Ongoing)

Overview:
Celestia has set aside $100 million to support projects through community voting. These grants fund tools like:

• Software development kits (SDKs) for zero-knowledge rollups (a way to increase privacy and scalability)
• Settlement layers compatible with Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocols
• Data availability-powered decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN)

What this means:
These grants help developers build on Celestia more easily, which should increase adoption. The success of this depends on whether these projects attract significant value and users to the network.

Conclusion

Celestia is focusing on making its infrastructure more scalable with 1 GB blocks, improving token economics through Proof-of-Governance, and encouraging developer growth via grants through 2026. While there are technical challenges ahead, this roadmap aligns well with the increasing need for modular blockchain solutions. The key question remains: will TIA’s growing use as a currency for data space balance out the selling pressure from token unlocks?

What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s latest updates focus on improving scalability and managing its token economy effectively.

1. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Cut TIA’s inflation by 33% and added cross-chain compatibility.
2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 2025) – Reduced new token issuance to 0.25% to control inflation.
3. Hyperlane Integration (May 2025) – Enabled TIA transfers across Ethereum, Solana, and rollups.

Deep Dive

1. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

Overview: The version 4 upgrade lowered TIA’s yearly inflation from 7.2% to about 5%, helping balance rewards for staking with the network’s long-term security.

This upgrade also introduced Hyperlane as part of the Cosmos SDK, allowing TIA tokens to move smoothly between Celestia rollups and other blockchains like Ethereum and Arbitrum. Additionally, staking rewards for accounts with locked tokens are now released gradually, preventing large holders from bypassing lockup rules.

What this means: This is positive for TIA because lower inflation means less pressure to sell tokens, and cross-chain compatibility can increase TIA’s usefulness. These changes aim to create a more stable token economy as Celestia grows its modular platform.
(Source)

2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 2025)

Overview: Celestia co-founder John Adler proposed cutting TIA’s annual token issuance by 95%, from 5% down to 0.25%, through a governance vote.

This move is designed to reduce inflation without hurting network security. Instead of relying on complex financial tools like liquid staking derivatives, the protocol itself will adjust issuance rates. It also focuses on increasing transaction fee rewards for TIA holders.

What this means: This is somewhat positive—lower issuance could make TIA more scarce, potentially increasing its value. However, the impact depends on whether the community approves the proposal. Reduced inflation might attract investors looking for stable returns.
(Source)

3. Hyperlane Integration (May 2025)

Overview: Celestia integrated Hyperlane’s protocol, allowing TIA to be transferred across more than 100 blockchains through a Cosmos SDK module.

At first, these transfers are secured by multisignature wallets, but the plan is to switch to zero-knowledge proofs validated by Celestia’s network validators. This setup lets developers create applications that work across multiple blockchains using Celestia’s data availability services.

What this means: This is a strong positive for TIA, as better interoperability makes it a key asset in modular blockchain ecosystems. Easier cross-chain transfers could increase demand for Celestia’s data services.
(Source)

Conclusion

Celestia’s updates focus on sustainable token economics by lowering inflation and enhancing interoperability through Hyperlane. With TIA now operable across major blockchains, the question is whether developer interest in Celestia-powered rollups will grow, driving wider adoption.