Why did the price of TIA go up?

Celestia (TIA) saw a modest 0.9% increase in the last 24 hours, marking a small bounce back after several weeks of decline. This uptick matches positive technical signals and renewed interest in its modular blockchain infrastructure, which some see as undervalued.

1. Technical Rebound (Positive Sign) – Indicators like RSI and MACD suggest short-term momentum is building.
2. Modular Blockchain Interest (Mixed Outlook) – Recent discussions highlight TIA’s long-term potential despite current weak usage.
3. New Staking ETP Launch (Neutral Effect) – Bitwise’s Celestia Staking ETP on the Paris Exchange could attract more institutional investors.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Technical Rebound (Positive Sign)

Overview:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TIA moved out of oversold territory, and the MACD indicator turned positive for the first time since mid-October. These are common signs that the price might be reversing upward. Additionally, TIA’s price stayed above a key support level at $1.09, based on Fibonacci retracement analysis.

What this means:
After dropping 24% over the past month, the selling pressure may be easing, prompting automated trading systems to buy. However, resistance near $1.22 and relatively low trading volume suggest some investors remain cautious about a sustained rally.

What to watch:
If TIA’s price breaks and holds above $1.10, it could indicate a stronger recovery is underway.

2. Modular Blockchain Interest (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
A popular thread on X (formerly Twitter) highlighted Celestia’s deflationary token model, where inflation is dropping from 8% to 1.5% annually, and its potential role as a data layer for Ethereum.

What this means:
Although daily transactions are still low (around 35,300), traders are betting on TIA’s future utility as Ethereum faces congestion issues. The ongoing debate between modular blockchains like Celestia and traditional monolithic blockchains gained attention after Ethereum’s Q3 report showed Layer 2 solutions cut Ethereum fee burns by 87%.

What to watch:
Updates to Ethereum’s Q4 roadmap, especially around data availability outsourcing, could benefit Celestia.

3. New Staking ETP Launch (Neutral Effect)

Overview:
On October 16, Bitwise launched a Celestia Staking Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) on the Paris Exchange, giving European investors easier access to staked TIA tokens.

What this means:
While this product hasn’t yet attracted large investments, it makes TIA more accessible to institutional investors. The staking yield of 8.25% after fees (via platforms like Bunq and Kraken) remains an attractive feature in Celestia’s tokenomics.

Conclusion

Celestia’s recent price rebound is driven by technical factors and cautious optimism about its modular blockchain approach. However, weak on-chain activity and a large token redistribution by Polychain ($62.5 million completed October 20) limit the upside potential.

Key to watch: Can TIA maintain support around $1.05 if Bitcoin’s market dominance (currently 59.13%) continues to rise? Also, keep an eye on Ethereum’s data availability strategy for clues on Celestia’s future direction.

What could affect the price of TIA?

Celestia’s price is caught between optimism about its new technology and challenges from its token supply.

1. Lotus Upgrade Impact – Lower inflation and new cross-chain features could increase demand (positive).
2. Rollup Adoption Risk – Slow adoption in data availability projects; TIA price down 44% in the past month (negative).
3. Token Unlock Pressure – A large $62.5 million sale by Polychain adds selling pressure (negative).

Deep Dive

1. Lotus Upgrade & Tokenomics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Lotus upgrade, launched in June 2025, reduced Celestia’s token inflation from 5% to just 0.25% per year. It also tied staking rewards to a vesting schedule, meaning rewards are released gradually. Additionally, it introduced Hyperlane, a feature that allows Celestia’s token (TIA) to work across other blockchains like Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum.

What this means: Lower inflation means fewer new tokens flooding the market over time, which is good for price stability. However, about 409 million tokens are still scheduled to be unlocked by 2027, which could increase selling pressure in the short term. The new cross-chain feature (Hyperlane) might increase demand by enabling more use cases and fees.

2. Data Availability Competition (Bearish)

Overview: Ethereum’s third-quarter report showed that Layer 2 solutions (L2s) are paying 40% less to Layer 1 (L1) for data storage, encouraging projects to look for cheaper data availability (DA) options like Celestia. Despite this, the DA token sector has dropped 42% in the last month, with TIA underperforming its competitors.

What this means: Although Celestia’s technology addresses Ethereum’s scaling challenges, the overall market for DA tokens is weak, and adoption of rollups (a type of scaling solution) remains limited. For TIA to recover, it needs a breakthrough moment—similar to how ChatGPT boosted interest in AI—that would drive wider adoption of modular blockchains.

3. Vesting & VC Exits (Bearish)

Overview: In July 2025, Polychain sold its remaining $62.5 million stake in TIA, adding to the supply available on the market. Early investors continue to unlock tokens, and the Genesis Drop airdrop from 2023 still contributes to daily token releases, averaging about 995,000 TIA per day until late 2025.

What this means: Even though the Celestia Foundation has a plan to redistribute tokens gradually, the market’s low trading volume ($65 million in 24 hours) makes it vulnerable to price drops from large token sales. With a fully diluted market value of $1.15 billion, TIA could face further price declines if token unlocks outpace demand.

Conclusion

The future of TIA depends on balancing growing adoption of its modular blockchain technology with ongoing token unlocks that increase supply. Keep an eye on the blobspace utilization rate—if cross-chain activity through Hyperlane can offset selling pressure from unlocked tokens, TIA could rebound toward $2.20 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). Until then, the 200-day moving average at $1.91 remains a strong resistance level. The key question is whether Celestia’s “lazy bridging” technology can attract enough rollups to justify its current $884 million market cap.

What are people saying about TIA?

Celestia’s modular blockchain approach faces challenges from weak price trends and fading excitement. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Hope for a price breakout vs. ongoing downward trend
2. Upcoming upgrades vs. low network activity
3. Polychain’s $62.5 million sale raises concerns about token supply

Deep Dive

1. @VipRoseTr: Possible Breakout from Downward Trend

"Breaking upper resistance at $6.20 🚀 Targets: $2.20 → $4.20"
– @VipRoseTr (12.3K followers · 18K impressions · 2025-09-10 15:19 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Celestia (TIA). If the price moves above $2.20, it could end a 9-month downward trend. However, the current price is $1.07, which is still 48% below that key level.

2. @checkmatexxxxxx: Roadmap Could Reduce Token Supply

"Proof of Governance → lower node costs + burn pressure → deflationary $TIA"
– @checkmatexxxxxx (89K followers · 224K impressions · 2025-10-19 13:32 UTC)
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What this means: This is neutral for TIA right now. The planned upgrades from 2025 to 2030 aim to lower costs for network participants and increase token burning, which could reduce supply. But since daily network fees are about $200 (CoinMarketCap), the immediate impact on reducing tokens is limited.

3. CoinMarketCap News: Polychain’s Sale Adds Selling Pressure

"Polychain sells remaining $62.5M TIA stake to Celestia Foundation ahead of staking changes"
– CoinMarketCap (30M+ followers · 2025-07-24 18:51 UTC)
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What this means: This is a negative signal for TIA. Polychain’s sale increases the number of tokens available on the market just as the daily token unlock rate is set to drop from 995,000 to 344,000 tokens in November 2025, which could affect price stability.

Conclusion

Opinions on Celestia are mixed. Developers highlight its modular design as a strong future feature, while traders remain cautious due to weak price support. Keep an eye on the upcoming Lotus upgrade (currently on testnet, expected on mainnet in Q4 2025), which will change staking rules and could lower annual inflation from 8% to 0.25%. Until then, the $1.00 price level is a key support to watch to avoid further declines.

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is working through a tough market by making key upgrades and growing its ecosystem, even as bearish trends continue. Here’s the latest news:

1. Roadmap 2025–2030 (October 19, 2025) – Plans to increase data capacity and introduce a deflationary token model.
2. Bunq EU Staking Launch (October 21, 2025) – TIA can now be staked through a popular European neobank app.
3. Ethena DEX Integration (October 22, 2025) – A new decentralized exchange uses Celestia for cross-chain data handling.

Deep Dive

1. Roadmap 2025–2030 (October 19, 2025)

Overview:
Celestia revealed a plan focused on three main goals by 2030: expanding its data capacity to handle more demand, enabling easier movement of assets across different blockchain layers through “lazy bridging,” and shifting to a deflationary token model by reducing TIA’s new supply from 5% to 0.25%, plus burning fees collected.

What this means:
This is positive news for TIA holders in the long run. Lowering the supply and increasing demand through transaction fees could help reduce inflation concerns. However, successfully implementing these changes in modular blockchain technology is still challenging. (@checkmatexxxxxx)

2. Bunq EU Staking Launch (October 21, 2025)

Overview:
Dutch neobank Bunq added TIA to its staking options, letting its 20 million users earn up to 8.25% annual returns. TIA joins other popular cryptocurrencies like ETH, SOL, and ATOM, with no lock-up period required.

What this means:
This move makes staking more accessible to everyday users, which is generally good for TIA. However, Bunq charges a 25% fee on rewards—higher than average—and only half of the staked funds are actively used to maintain liquidity. (Cointribune)

3. Ethena DEX Integration (October 22, 2025)

Overview:
Ethereal, a new decentralized exchange powered by Ethena, launched on a Celestia-backed appchain. It uses Celestia’s data layer to settle margin trades, with TIA used to pay fees.

What this means:
This expands TIA’s use cases into derivatives trading, which is a positive development. Still, since Ethereal is in an early testing phase, its immediate impact is limited. Plus, it faces strong competition from Ethereum’s established rollups. (The Defiant)

Conclusion

Celestia is making important infrastructure improvements and real-world partnerships like staking and DEX integration to recover from a 95% drop from its all-time high. While these efforts help increase TIA’s usefulness, the token remains vulnerable to overall altcoin market weakness and low retail interest. The big question is whether modular blockchain adoption can outpace selling pressure from token unlocks.

What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s plan focuses on building a stronger, more connected blockchain system by improving its technology, making it easier to work with other blockchains, and adjusting its token economics to support long-term growth.

1. Lotus Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Enables Celestia to communicate smoothly with other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana through Hyperlane integration.
2. 1 GB Block Scaling (2025–2030) – Technical improvements aimed at handling transaction volumes similar to Visa’s network.
3. Proof of Governance (2026) – Changes to how rewards are given, lowering inflation and introducing token burning to support the value of $TIA.

Deep Dive

1. Lotus Upgrade (Q4 2025)

Overview:
The Lotus upgrade will add Hyperlane’s technology to Celestia’s platform, allowing $TIA to interact easily with other major blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana. This feature is already being tested and is expected to launch on the main network by late 2025 (Celestia Blog).

What this means:
This is good news for $TIA’s usefulness as it opens up more opportunities for trading and liquidity across different blockchains. However, if other competing technologies like Cosmos IBC or Polkadot’s XCM gain more traction, adoption might slow down.

2. Scaling to 1 GB Blocks (2025–2030)

Overview:
Celestia plans to increase its block size to 1 gigabyte by using advanced technologies such as Data Availability Sampling (DAS), Namespaced Merkle Trees (NMT), and a new way to produce blocks. This upgrade aims to support around 24,000 transactions per second, making it suitable for high-demand applications like gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi) (Roadmap Blog).

What this means:
This upgrade could attract more developers and projects that need fast and scalable blockchain solutions. However, there are risks of delays and competition from other data availability solutions like EigenDA.

3. Proof of Governance (2026)

Overview:
Celestia is considering moving from a traditional Proof of Stake system to a hybrid model called Proof of Governance. This means that rewards for staking $TIA will depend on participating in governance decisions. The plan includes reducing the annual token issuance from 8% to 0.25% and introducing token burning from fees to reduce supply (CoinMarketCap News).

What this means:
In the long run, this could increase the value of $TIA by making it scarcer. However, it might discourage some short-term stakers if their rewards decrease significantly.

Conclusion

Celestia’s roadmap aims to improve its technology to handle more transactions, expand its network connections, and create a sustainable economic model for $TIA. The success of these plans depends on how well Celestia can deliver these upgrades while competing with other modular blockchain projects and keeping developers interested.

Will Celestia’s “neutral blobspace” approach attract enough projects to meet its ambitious growth goals?

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What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s development focuses on improving scalability, interoperability, and token economics.

1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2030 Roadmap) – Increasing data capacity to meet growing demand from rollups.
2. Lazy Bridging (2025–2030 Roadmap) – Making it easier and cheaper to move assets between different rollup networks.
3. Proof of Governance (2025–2030 Roadmap) – Lowering costs for network participants and reducing the supply of $TIA tokens to support value.

Deep Dive

1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2030 Roadmap)

Overview: Celestia plans to expand its blobspace, which is the data storage area used by rollups—specialized blockchain layers that handle transactions off the main chain. This upgrade aims to support the expected surge in blockchain use, similar to how AI tools like ChatGPT became widely popular and required more powerful infrastructure.

What this means: This is positive for TIA because more blobspace means more rollups can use Celestia, increasing demand for TIA tokens since fees are paid in TIA. However, this depends on whether modular blockchains and rollups become widely adopted.
(Source)

2. Lazy Bridging (2025–2030 Roadmap)

Overview: Celestia aims to simplify how assets move between different rollup networks by enabling “lazy bridging.” This means users can transfer liquidity across ecosystems without relying on centralized bridges, which can be costly and risky.

What this means: This is somewhat positive for TIA because easier cross-network transfers can increase the usefulness of Celestia’s platform. However, other solutions like Ethereum’s built-in bridges may compete, so the real impact depends on how well this works in practice.
(Source)

3. Proof of Governance (2025–2030 Roadmap)

Overview: Celestia proposes a system where some of the $TIA tokens used for governance are burned (permanently removed from circulation). This combines rewards for participants with a mechanism to reduce the total token supply over time.

What this means: This is good news for TIA holders because reducing the supply can help increase the token’s value, especially since inflation is currently around 8% but expected to drop to 1.5% annually. However, the burning process needs to be carefully managed to avoid limiting liquidity too much.
(Source)

Conclusion

Celestia’s upcoming updates focus on making its infrastructure more scalable and improving its token economics. The goal is to become the go-to data layer for modular blockchains. While the technology is promising, the key question remains: will rollups choose Celestia’s blobspace as they grow?