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What could affect the price of TIA?

Celestia is navigating a mix of technical improvements and supply challenges in a cautious market environment.

  1. Lower Inflation & Governance Updates – The v6 upgrade cut inflation to 2.5%, targeting 1.5% long-term, which is a positive sign.
  2. Token Unlocks & Selling Pressure – About 344,000 TIA tokens unlock daily until 2027, creating potential downward pressure on price.
  3. Competition in Data Availability (DA) – Celestia competes with Ethereum’s upgrades for demand, leading to mixed outcomes.

In-Depth Look

1. Inflation Changes & Upgrades (Positive Outlook)

Celestia’s v6 Matcha upgrade, released in November 2025, reduced the annual inflation rate from 5% to 2.5%, moving toward a long-term goal of 1.5%. Future updates may include token-burning mechanisms through Proof-of-Governance, which would further reduce supply.

Why this matters:
Lower inflation means fewer new tokens entering the market, making existing tokens more scarce. This scarcity can increase the value of TIA, especially since the token is used to pay for data availability (DA) services on the network. For example, after a previous upgrade in July 2025 that lowered inflation from 7.2% to 5%, TIA’s price jumped 14%. (Celestia Blog)

2. Token Unlock Schedule & Early Investor Sales (Negative Outlook)

Early investors from Seed and Series A/B rounds still hold over half (53.21%) of all TIA tokens. These tokens are gradually unlocking at a rate of 344,000 TIA per day and will continue to do so until 2027. For instance, Polychain sold $62.5 million worth of TIA in July 2025, showing ongoing selling pressure.

Why this matters:
The daily increase in available tokens can outpace demand, leading to downward pressure on the price. Despite a 25% increase in circulating supply year-over-year, TIA’s price has dropped by 91.5%. Until the revenue from DA fees grows enough to absorb this new supply, token dilution remains a challenge. (Token Unlock Report)

3. Competition in Data Availability: Modular vs. Monolithic (Mixed Outlook)

Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, launched in December 2025, allows for larger 128MB blocks, which competes directly with Celestia’s data availability services. However, over 30 blockchain projects already use Celestia’s “blobspace” for data storage.

Why this matters:
Celestia needs to grow its adoption to keep pace. Currently, Celestia processes about 1,600 data blobs daily, while Ethereum handles around 41,000. If Celestia can capture more than 25% of Ethereum’s data availability demand, TIA’s value could increase significantly based on fees collected. (The Defiant)

Conclusion

The future of TIA depends on whether data availability demand grows faster than inflation and token unlocks increase supply. Keep an eye on the blobspace utilization rate—if Celestia processes over 5,000 daily blobs (about 2.5 times the current rate) while inflation continues to decline, the balance between supply and demand could shift positively. Until then, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.36 remains a key resistance level.

The big question: Can Celestia’s technology upgrades overcome the selling pressure from early token unlocks?


What are people saying about TIA?

Celestia’s unique modular approach is stirring up discussion as its token, TIA, hovers around $0.45. Here’s what’s trending:

  1. Breakout potential – Traders are watching for a move up to $0.65 if key support holds steady.
  2. Undervalued outlook – Long-term supporters highlight TIA’s deflationary token design as a positive.
  3. Upgrade watch – The upcoming Matcha governance update could significantly impact TIA’s value.
  4. Insider activity – Polychain’s $62.5 million sell-off raises concerns about centralization risks.

Deep Dive

1. @VipRoseTr: Is a breakout above $0.61 coming? 🐂

“$TIA is breaking through resistance at $0.61 with strong volume – targets $0.65 to $0.70 if it holds.”
– @VipRoseTr (63.5K followers · 44.3K impressions · 2025-09-10 15:19 UTC)
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What this means: If TIA stays above $0.61, short-term traders expect upward momentum. Technical indicators like RSI suggest a possible trend reversal to the upside.

2. @MrMinNin: Why TIA could be a modular dark horse ⚙️

“At $0.45, the market overlooks TIA’s rollup fee model and a modest 1.5% inflation rate by 2027. It’s either headed to zero or into the top 20 coins.”
– @MrMinNin (3.5K followers · 5.4K impressions · 2025-10-22 19:21 UTC)
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What this means: Supporters believe TIA’s role as a data layer in modular blockchain systems could increase demand if adoption grows. However, there’s still significant risk in execution and market acceptance.

3. @airdropNFT009: Matcha upgrade – a turning point? 🍵

“November’s Matcha upgrade introduces Proof-of-Governance, which might reduce supply through staking burns. Could short-term challenges lead to long-term benefits?”
– @airdropNFT009 (1K followers · 5.6K impressions · 2025-11-27 04:47 UTC)
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What this means: This update could ease selling pressure on TIA, but success depends on coordination among developers and validators. The outlook is cautiously optimistic.

4. CoinMarketCap Community: Whale sell-off continues 🐋

“Polychain has sold $62.5 million worth of TIA back to the Foundation, raising concerns about large over-the-counter sales.”
– 2025-07-24 18:51 UTC · 3K+ views
View original post
What this means: This is a bearish sign. Despite TIA’s significant drop from its all-time high, major investors are still offloading, indicating weak confidence from institutions.

Conclusion

The outlook for TIA is mixed. Technical traders see potential for a rebound from oversold levels, while fundamental analysts debate its future role in the modular blockchain space. The upcoming Matcha upgrade’s staking features (expected between Nov 27 and Dec 1) will be key to watch, especially for changes in inflation and governance participation. Until then, expect the $0.45 to $0.65 price range to be a battleground between bullish and bearish forces as Celestia’s long-term prospects unfold.


What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia is navigating a challenging market with important updates and strategic changes. Here’s a quick summary:

  1. Steady Network Despite Price Drops (Dec 22, 2025) – Even though TIA’s price has fallen sharply, the network remains stable.
  2. ChatGPT Includes TIA in 2026 Portfolio (Dec 20, 2025) – A hypothetical $100 investment in TIA highlights its potential in modular blockchain technology.
  3. Proposal to Cut Inflation (Dec 20, 2025) – Plans to reduce TIA’s inflation rate aim to strengthen its token value.

In-Depth Look

1. Steady Network Despite Price Drops (Dec 22, 2025)

What’s happening:
Celestia’s TIA token has dropped about 91.5% from its peak in 2024, reflecting a cooling interest in modular blockchains. However, the network itself is holding strong. Validators (those who help secure the network) are still active, and transaction processing remains steady. Futures market data shows traders are pulling back, indicating less speculative activity.

Why it matters:
This suggests the price drop is more about market conditions than problems with Celestia’s technology. The network’s health points to a possible reset in value rather than failure. Modular blockchains like Celestia could still grow over time as the technology matures. (CryptoNewsLand)

2. ChatGPT Includes TIA in 2026 Portfolio (Dec 20, 2025)

What’s happening:
In a hypothetical $1,000 crypto portfolio for 2026, ChatGPT allocated $100 to TIA. The AI highlighted Celestia’s unique approach to modular blockchains, which separates data handling from transaction execution to improve scalability.

Why it matters:
This recognition is positive for TIA, showing growing interest in its technology. However, the real test will be how many developers and projects actually use Celestia’s platform in the future. (Finbold)

3. Proposal to Cut Inflation (Dec 20, 2025)

What’s happening:
A governance proposal aims to reduce TIA’s annual inflation rate from 5% to 0.25%. This means fewer new tokens will be created each year, potentially increasing the value of existing tokens. The move follows a large sale of TIA tokens by Polychain Capital to the Celestia Foundation earlier in 2025.

Why it matters:
Lower inflation can be good for token holders in the long run by limiting supply growth. However, there may be short-term uncertainty as the market adjusts to these changes. (Andrew B. | A Cryptonaut)

Conclusion

Celestia is balancing tough market conditions with important upgrades and growing institutional interest. While technical indicators show caution, the network’s stability and plans to improve token economics provide reasons for optimism. The upcoming Matcha upgrade and inflation reduction could help stabilize TIA’s position in the modular blockchain space, but broader market challenges may continue to affect its price for now.


What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s roadmap through 2026 focuses on improving scalability, enabling easier cross-chain transactions, and upgrading governance to strengthen the network.

  1. Blobspace Scaling (Q1 2026) – Increase data capacity to support more rollups.
  2. Lazy Bridging (Mid-2026) – Introduce low-cost, trust-minimized cross-rollup transfers.
  3. Proof of Governance (2026) – Revamp staking to reduce token inflation.

Deep Dive

1. Blobspace Scaling (Q1 2026)

Overview:
Celestia plans to boost its blobspace throughput by 3 to 5 times. This means it can handle much more data from Ethereum rollups and new appchains, keeping up with growing demand (checkmatexxxxxx). Improvements include upgrading node software to process larger blocks and making data verification more efficient.

What this means:
This is positive for Celestia’s native token, TIA, because more data availability means higher fees paid in TIA. However, if major Layer 2 solutions like Solaxy (SOLAXYTOKEN) delay adopting Celestia, the impact could be limited.

2. Lazy Bridging (Mid-2026)

Overview:
Celestia is developing a new bridging protocol that allows assets to move between different rollups without relying on centralized intermediaries. It uses zero-knowledge proofs (ZK proofs) to securely verify transfers between Celestia-based chains.

What this means:
This feature improves interoperability and could encourage ecosystem growth, making it a neutral-to-positive development. Early tests on the Mocha testnet show fast transaction finality (about 2 seconds), but the full launch on the main network might take longer (CoinMarketCap).

3. Proof of Governance (2026)

Overview:
Celestia proposes to reduce token issuance from 5% to 0.25% annually and introduce fee burning through CIP-009, a governance improvement proposal (John Adler).

What this means:
This change could be very positive for TIA holders by lowering the daily token supply released (from 995,000 to 344,000 TIA), potentially creating deflationary pressure. However, this depends on validator approval, with voting expected in the first half of 2026.

Conclusion

Celestia is moving from building its infrastructure toward creating a sustainable economic model. The 2026 roadmap targets key areas: scaling to handle more users, bridging to connect different blockchains, and improving tokenomics to strengthen the network’s value. While Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade presents competition (Bitget), Celestia’s modular design and strong financial reserves ($100 million) give it room to adapt.

Key question: Will the growth in rollup activity outpace the reduction in token inflation? Keep an eye on monthly blob transactions and staking rates throughout 2026.


What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s latest software updates focus on improving scalability, cross-chain compatibility, and long-term economic health.

  1. Matcha Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Boosts block size to 128MB, cuts inflation in half to 2.5%, and removes limits on assets moving between blockchains.
  2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Adds Hyperlane for easier TIA transfers across chains and reduces inflation by 33%.
  3. Node Incentives & Devnet Upgrades (October 2025) – Improves error handling and supports Solana 3.x for smoother node operation.

Deep Dive

1. Matcha Upgrade (Q4 2025)

Overview: Matcha is Celestia’s biggest update so far, designed to handle more data and make the network more cost-effective. It introduces much larger blocks—128MB compared to the previous 8MB—and aims for very fast data speeds over time.

What this means: This upgrade is positive for TIA because it strengthens Celestia’s role as a modular data layer that can handle more traffic, while the lower inflation supports token scarcity. The improved cross-chain features make Celestia a more attractive hub for moving assets. (Source)

2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

Overview: Lotus focuses on making Celestia work better with other blockchains and improving staking rewards.

What this means: This update is somewhat positive for TIA. While better interoperability expands its use cases, locking rewards may reduce how quickly tokens can be sold, encouraging long-term holding. (Source)

3. Node Operator Upgrades (October 2025)

Overview: Third-party projects like Solaxy have updated their test networks (devnets) to prepare for Celestia’s mainnet launch.

What this means: This is neutral for TIA. While delays can be frustrating, the improvements help ensure a more stable network once fully launched. (Source)

Conclusion

Celestia is evolving to handle more data (128MB blocks), connect seamlessly with other blockchains (Hyperlane/IBC), and maintain a healthier token economy (inflation cuts). The Matcha and Lotus upgrades mark a move toward becoming a key modular blockchain platform. However, delays in node migration highlight some risks in execution. With TIA down 91% this year, these upgrades could be crucial to reigniting interest from developers and investors alike.


Why did the price of TIA fall?

Celestia (TIA) dropped 1.7% in the last 24 hours, adding to a 31.4% loss over the past month amid a wider sell-off in the crypto market. The main reasons include:

  1. Less excitement around modular blockchains – Investors are less willing to take risks on blockchain infrastructure projects.
  2. Token unlocks increasing supply – Scheduled releases of new tokens are putting downward pressure on the price.
  3. Technical signs of weakness – Price struggles at key levels and momentum indicators show bearish trends.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Cooling Interest in Modular Blockchains (Negative Impact)

Celestia (TIA) is designed to serve as a data availability layer for rollups, a type of modular blockchain technology. However, as overall crypto market liquidity shrinks, interest in these infrastructure projects has dropped. For example, futures market activity for TIA fell by 9.6% this week (source), indicating less speculative buying.

What this means: The success of TIA depends on the growth of modular blockchains, but right now, investors are focusing more on safer assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins during uncertain times. Daily trading volume for TIA also dropped nearly 20% to $31.2 million, showing less market activity and making price declines more likely.

2. Token Unlocks Adding Selling Pressure (Negative Impact)

Nearly 1 million TIA tokens, worth about $445,000, are being released into the market daily as part of planned unlock schedules for early investors (data as of December 16, 2025). Although this is only about 0.12% of the total circulating supply, it still adds consistent selling pressure, especially in a market with low liquidity.

What this means: The daily release of new tokens exceeds the natural demand from buyers, creating a supply surplus that pushes prices down. The 50-day moving average price of $0.5663 is currently acting as a resistance level, about 27% above where TIA is trading now, showing how these unlocks are keeping prices suppressed.

3. Technical Indicators Show Weakness (Negative Impact)

On December 23, TIA’s price fell below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.47012, a key short-term support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31.56, close to oversold territory but without signs of a rebound. Additionally, the MACD indicator turned negative, confirming downward momentum.

What to watch: If TIA’s price falls below $0.43667, a recent low point, it could trigger automated selling by trading algorithms. On the other hand, if the price climbs back above $0.49239, it might signal a short-term bounce.

Conclusion

The recent drop in Celestia (TIA) reflects a combination of fading interest in modular blockchain projects, ongoing token unlocks increasing supply, and weak technical signals. These are typical signs of a “narrative decay” phase, where investor enthusiasm fades.

Key point to watch: The upcoming Matcha upgrade, which aims to reduce TIA token issuance to 0.25% by 2026, could help ease selling pressure if it happens sooner than expected.