Why did the price of TIA go up?
Celestia (TIA) increased by 0.93% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 1.03%. This small gain matches some technical signals that suggested the coin was oversold, along with a few minor updates in its ecosystem. However, the overall market mood remains cautious and negative.
- Oversold Bounce (Mixed Impact)
- Ecosystem Growth (Positive Impact)
- Ongoing Market Challenges (Negative Impact)
Deep Dive
1. Oversold Bounce (Mixed Impact)
Overview: On December 25, TIA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 30.46, indicating it was nearly oversold. At the same time, a technical indicator called the MACD histogram showed signs of a potential upward move. This led to a small rebound in price, even though trading volume was low.
What this means: Short-term traders likely took advantage of the oversold condition to buy, but important resistance levels at about $0.46 (7-day average) and $0.55 (30-day average) still stand in the way. Without stronger buying momentum, this bounce might not last.
2. Ecosystem Growth (Positive Impact)
Overview: Celestia has recently made progress by integrating with Hyperlane, a tool that helps different blockchains work together (October 2025). It has also partnered with projects like Monad for better data indexing (Dexu AI). These developments have gradually improved confidence in the project.
What this means: Although adoption is slow, Celestia’s unique modular design is gaining interest from rollup projects like Eclipse and Movement Labs. As these rollups use Celestia and pay fees in TIA tokens, demand for TIA could increase over time.
3. Ongoing Market Challenges (Negative Impact)
Overview: TIA’s price is still down about 95% from its peak earlier in 2024. Additionally, nearly 995,000 new tokens are added to circulation daily due to token unlocks. The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a “Fear” index at 27 and Bitcoin dominating 59.4% of the market, which limits gains for alternative coins like TIA.
What this means: High inflation of the token supply (currently 858 million TIA) and low demand for modular blockchain solutions in a risk-averse market make it difficult for TIA to sustain upward momentum.
Conclusion
TIA’s recent small gain reflects a short-term technical rebound and some progress in its ecosystem, but broader market uncertainty and token supply issues continue to weigh on its price. Key point to watch: Can TIA stay above $0.45, a critical support level, to confirm short-term strength, or will selling pressure push it lower again?
What could affect the price of TIA?
Celestia’s price outlook depends on inflation cuts, token unlock schedules, and how well modular blockchains catch on.
- Inflation Cuts & Staking Rewards – Lower token issuance and changes in governance could reduce supply.
- Token Unlock Pressure – Over $62.5 million worth of tokens entering the market may lead to ongoing selling.
- Modular Blockchain Competition – Competing with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade for relevance in data handling.
Deep Dive
1. Inflation & Staking Rewards (Positive Outlook)
Overview:
Celestia’s upcoming v6 Matcha upgrade in November 2025 will cut annual inflation from 5% to 2.5%, with plans to lower it further to 1.5% over time. There’s also a proposal called Proof-of-Governance that could reduce new token issuance to just 0.25%, potentially making TIA tokens deflationary by burning fees. Additionally, staking rewards are now partially locked to match vesting schedules, which helps reduce the amount of tokens validators sell.
What this means:
Lower inflation means fewer new tokens entering the market, making TIA more scarce—especially if modular blockchain use grows. However, the minimum validator commission has increased from 5% to 10%, which might discourage smaller token holders from staking, limiting participation.
2. Token Unlocks & Early Investor Sales (Negative Outlook)
Overview:
Polychain Capital sold its remaining 43.45 million TIA tokens (worth about $62.5 million) in July 2025. Meanwhile, 75% of tokens allocated for research, development, and ecosystem growth (about 26.79% of total supply) will unlock gradually through 2029. Early investors from Seed and Series A/B rounds still hold roughly 35.6% of the supply, with their tokens unlocking until 2027.
What this means:
Ongoing token unlocks could flood the market, especially when trading volumes are low. TIA’s price already dropped 92% from its 2024 peak, partly due to similar sell-offs, so this remains a risk to watch.
3. Competition from Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade (Mixed Outlook)
Overview:
Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade in December 2025 introduced PeerDAS, increasing data blob capacity to 128 per block—comparable to Celestia’s 128MB blocks. Ethereum now supports over 55 rollups with more than $40 billion in total value locked (TVL), challenging Celestia’s position in data availability services.
What this means:
Celestia’s success depends on attracting developers away from Ethereum’s well-established ecosystem. Recent partnerships with projects like Hyperlane and dYdX show progress, but Ethereum’s dominance remains a significant hurdle.
Conclusion
TIA’s future will balance deflationary tokenomics against selling pressure from token unlocks and competition from Ethereum’s scalability improvements. In the short term, watch the $0.488–$0.533 Fibonacci resistance levels (23.6–38.2% retracement). Long term, the adoption of modular blockchains will determine whether TIA becomes a foundational infrastructure token or remains a niche experiment.
Will Ethereum’s data availability upgrades outpace Celestia’s developer growth?
What are people saying about TIA?
The Celestia (TIA) community is divided between hopeful optimism and skepticism as different views on its modular blockchain technology clash with negative price trends. Here’s what’s currently shaping the conversation:
- Supporters of the modular blockchain concept believe TIA is undervalued infrastructure.
- Technical analysts are debating whether TIA will break out of a downward price channel or fall below key support at $0.45.
- Insider selling by Polychain Capital is causing distrust, despite the project having $100 million in foundation reserves.
Deep Dive
1. @MrMinNin: Modular Data Layer’s Quiet Comeback 🐂
"At around $0.45, the market is overlooking TIA – but the next wave of data-layer technology could change that."
– @MrMinNin (2,939 followers · 434 likes · Oct 22, 2025)
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What this means: This is a positive outlook for TIA, highlighting its role as a key but underappreciated piece of blockchain infrastructure focused on data availability. The idea is that as rollups (a type of blockchain scaling solution) become more popular, demand for TIA will grow — though current network activity is still low.
2. @VipRoseTr: Price Breakout Could Push TIA to $0.70 🎯
"Breaking out of the downward channel with strong volume means a rally is ready. Price targets: from $0.45 up to $0.70."
– @VipRoseTr (63,533 followers · 44,316 likes · Sep 10, 2025)
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What this means: This is a cautiously optimistic technical view. However, the price has dropped 67.4% over the past 90 days, which challenges this bullish setup. Traders should watch if TIA can stay above its 20-day moving average ($0.48) to confirm upward momentum.
3. @MrHodlerian: Bearish View: “TIA Went to Zero” 🐻
"Crypto since 2024 can be summed up with this chart – $TIA basically went to zero."
– @MrHodlerian (1,736 followers · 3,832 likes · Dec 19, 2025)
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What this means: This reflects a negative sentiment driven by TIA’s 90.68% loss over the past year. Many retail investors are frustrated by ongoing token unlocks and the lack of any strong price recovery.
Conclusion
The overall view on Celestia is mixed. On one hand, its modular blockchain design shows long-term promise. On the other, the token’s price has suffered significantly, and insider selling has hurt confidence. The upcoming Matcha upgrade aims to reduce inflation to 0.25% and introduce token burns, which could reduce supply. However, daily token unlocks of about 995,000 TIA continue to put downward pressure on the price.
Keep an eye on the blobspace utilization rate — if demand for data availability grows faster than tokens being sold from vesting schedules, TIA’s price could stabilize. For now, the $0.40 to $0.50 price range remains a key area to watch for market sentiment.
What is the latest news about TIA?
Celestia (TIA) is navigating current market challenges with a careful and strategic approach. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:
- Capitulation Phase Analysis (December 22, 2025) – TIA is experiencing ongoing selling pressure as interest in modular blockchains cools down.
- ChatGPT’s 2026 Portfolio Pick (December 20, 2025) – TIA was selected by ChatGPT as a promising modular blockchain infrastructure investment.
- Token Unlock Dynamics (December 18, 2025) – Attention shifts to how demand for Celestia’s data availability services will balance out the increase in token supply.
Deep Dive
1. Capitulation Phase Analysis (December 22, 2025)
Overview:
Celestia has faced steady selling as excitement around modular blockchains has slowed during a broader market downturn. The number of open futures contracts has dropped significantly, showing less speculative trading. However, key network indicators like validator activity and transaction processing remain steady.
What this means:
This situation is neutral for TIA. While the price reflects reduced enthusiasm, the core technology and network health remain solid. The market correction may clear out speculative excess, but recovery will depend on better liquidity and wider adoption of modular blockchain designs.
(Cryptonewsland)
2. ChatGPT’s 2026 Portfolio Pick (December 20, 2025)
Overview:
ChatGPT included TIA in a hypothetical $1,000 crypto portfolio for 2026, investing $100 in Celestia. The AI highlighted TIA’s role in modular blockchain architecture, which helps reduce costs for developers by separating data availability from transaction execution.
What this means:
This is a positive sign for TIA. Being recognized as a key infrastructure project could attract long-term investors. However, the success of this modular blockchain approach depends on real-world adoption and use cases.
(Finbold)
3. Token Unlock Dynamics (December 18, 2025)
Overview:
Celestia is about to unlock a significant amount of tokens, which some see as a test of demand for its data availability services. Unlike previous unlock events, analysts are now focusing more on actual network usage rather than just the increase in token supply.
What this means:
This is somewhat neutral to bearish in the short term. Token unlocks could put downward pressure on price, but the growing use of Celestia’s services (such as rollups using its data layer) points to stronger fundamentals. The key question is whether increased adoption can offset the impact of new tokens entering the market.
(Cryptonewsland)
Conclusion
Celestia’s path forward involves balancing short-term challenges like token unlocks and shifting market sentiment with its long-term potential as a blockchain infrastructure provider. While the network shows technical strength and gains strategic support, widespread adoption of modular blockchain technology is still unproven. The big question remains: Can TIA evolve from being driven by hype to becoming a widely used utility as the modular blockchain ecosystem grows?
What is expected in the development of TIA?
Celestia’s roadmap focuses on expanding its modular blockchain infrastructure, improving cross-chain liquidity, and implementing deflationary tokenomics to support the TIA token.
- Scaling Blobspace (2025–2030) – Increase data availability capacity to handle growing demand.
- Lazy Bridging (2026) – Introduce a low-cost way for different blockchains to communicate and transfer assets.
- Proof of Governance (Q1 2026) – Lower node operation costs and burn transaction fees to reduce TIA supply over time.
Deep Dive
1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2030)
Overview: Celestia plans to grow its data availability layer—a key part of its modular blockchain design—to keep up with increasing usage. This is expected to support a surge in demand similar to a “ChatGPT moment” in crypto, where many applications rely on Celestia’s data services. The focus will be on making nodes more efficient and increasing the amount of data they can process (checkmatexxxxxx).
What this means: This is positive for TIA adoption since more blockchain rollups will depend on Celestia’s data layer. However, there is a risk if demand doesn’t grow as fast as the technology improves.
2. Lazy Bridging (2026)
Overview: Lazy Bridging is a new solution to connect different blockchain rollups more cheaply and efficiently. Unlike traditional atomic swaps, it uses an optimistic verification method to reduce costs when transferring assets between chains.
What this means: This could increase TIA’s usefulness as a settlement token, but its success depends on whether major Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum or zkSync adopt it.
3. Proof of Governance (Q1 2026)
Overview: Celestia proposes a major change to its tokenomics by cutting annual TIA issuance from 8% down to 0.25% and burning fees collected from blobspace usage (CoinMarketCap News).
What this means: This is a positive long-term move, combining staking rewards with deflationary pressure to potentially increase TIA’s value. However, expect some price volatility during the governance voting period.
Conclusion
Celestia is focusing on strengthening its position as a modular blockchain platform while tightening the supply of TIA tokens. Its success depends on whether its data availability layer can outpace competitors like Ethereum’s upcoming Danksharding upgrade. The big question remains: will modular blockchains lead the next wave of innovation, or will traditional monolithic blockchains adapt and stay dominant?
For a closer look, keep an eye on TIA’s blobspace usage and how actively the community participates in governance proposals.
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What updates are there in the TIA code base?
Celestia’s software is getting important upgrades focused on making the network faster, more connected, and improving its token economics.
- Matcha Upgrade (November 2025) – Increases block size to 128MB, lowers inflation to 2.5%, and removes limits on token bridging.
- Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Adds Hyperlane for cross-chain communication and cuts TIA inflation by 33%.
- Core Protocol Improvements (Ongoing) – Enhances data availability and reduces storage needs for nodes.
Deep Dive
1. Matcha Upgrade (November 2025)
What it does: This upgrade doubles the size of data blocks to 128MB, allowing the network to handle more transactions and apps at once. It also cuts the yearly inflation rate of TIA tokens from 5% to 2.5%, making the token more scarce and potentially more valuable.
The update introduces a better way to spread large blocks across the network efficiently. It also removes restrictions on which tokens can be bridged to Celestia, making it easier to transfer assets from other blockchains. Plus, the storage needed for light nodes drops significantly to about 10GB thanks to pruning old data headers.
Why it matters: Bigger blocks mean Celestia can support more decentralized apps and rollups, which are layers built on top of the blockchain to increase speed and reduce costs. Lower inflation means TIA tokens become rarer over time, which can be good for holders. Easier asset transfers across chains could lead to more people using the network.
(Source)
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)
What it does: This upgrade adds Hyperlane, a tool that lets Celestia communicate smoothly with other popular blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos. It also reduces TIA’s inflation rate from 7.2% to about 5%, balancing rewards for people who stake their tokens to help secure the network.
Additionally, staking rewards for certain accounts are locked for a period to prevent early selling, which helps stabilize the token’s value.
Why it matters: In the short term, this is neutral for TIA’s price because while the network becomes more useful by connecting to other blockchains, locked rewards might limit how many tokens are available to trade. Over time, these changes improve network security and usability.
(Source)
3. Protocol Optimizations (Ongoing)
What it does: The team is improving how data is stored and verified. Light nodes now delete headers older than 7 days, cutting storage needs by about 77%. They also changed how data is hashed in block headers to cover entire data sets instead of individual transactions, which strengthens data availability guarantees.
Why it matters: These improvements make the network more efficient and reliable, which is great for TIA holders. Lower storage costs can encourage more people to run nodes, helping decentralize and secure the network.
(Source)
Conclusion
Celestia is steadily rolling out upgrades that boost scalability, reduce inflation, and improve cross-chain connectivity. With ongoing improvements to infrastructure, it’s positioning itself as a streamlined, modular platform for Web3 applications. The big questions are whether lower inflation and broader use cases will help TIA recover and grow despite the current bear market in 2024-2025.