Why did the price of TIA go up?

Celestia (TIA) increased by 3.72% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its downward trend over the past 30 days (-23%) and 90 days (-66%). This rise is driven by technical signals suggesting a rebound and growing interest in its modular blockchain technology.

1. Technical Rebound: Price bounced back from oversold levels and tested key support zones.
2. Matcha Upgrade Buzz: Anticipation of changes that could reduce token supply and increase value.
3. Strategic Buying: Large investors are accumulating near historic low prices.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Summary: After two months of declining prices, TIA’s price found support at $0.432, a key technical level. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved out of oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed signs of positive momentum for the first time since late 2025.

What this means: Short-term traders see $0.48 as a potential entry point with limited risk, helped by low price volatility. However, the longer-term resistance at around $1.33 remains far away, so some caution is warranted.

What to watch: If the price closes above $0.533, it could gain momentum toward $0.595.

2. Matcha Upgrade Speculation (Bullish Impact)

Summary: The upcoming Matcha upgrade, expected in early 2026, plans to introduce Proof-of-Governance (PoG). This could cut TIA’s yearly inflation rate from 5% to 2.5% and add a mechanism to burn transaction fees, reducing overall supply.

What this means: The success of this upgrade is important for Celestia’s modular blockchain technology, which depends on efficient data handling. If it works, TIA could shift from being mainly speculative to a token with real utility. Developer activity has increased recently, supporting this positive outlook.

3. Strategic Accumulation (Mixed Impact)

Summary: Data shows that large holders, or “whales,” bought about 24 million TIA tokens (worth roughly $11.5 million) in the past week, during a period when the token’s price dropped 90% from its all-time high.

What this means: This buying suggests confidence in Celestia’s long-term potential. However, daily token unlocks (995,000 TIA per day until August 2026) could limit price gains. Also, low trading volume means the token can be more volatile.

Conclusion

TIA’s recent price increase is mainly driven by short-term trading and excitement around the upcoming upgrade, rather than a fundamental turnaround. Interest in modular blockchains is growing again, but broader market challenges—like Bitcoin’s dominance at nearly 59% and a 59% drop in altcoin liquidity month-over-month—may restrict how much TIA can rise.

Key point to watch: Will TIA stay above $0.488 (its 20-day moving average) to confirm a short-term trend reversal?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}

What could affect the price of TIA?

The price of Celestia (TIA) depends on how widely its network is adopted, changes in its token economics, and overall market trends.

1. Modular Adoption Wave – Growing demand for data availability services
2. Inflation Cuts & Staking – Slower token supply growth balanced with rewards for validators
3. Unlock Overhangs – Selling pressure from early investors through 2026

Deep Dive

1. Modular Blockchain Adoption (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Celestia’s value comes from rollups—layer 2 solutions—that use its data availability layer to operate efficiently. The upcoming v6 Matcha upgrade in November 2025 will increase block size to 128MB and enable cross-chain asset transfers through Hyperlane. This has helped daily transactions reach 35,300 in October 2025 (Artemis). However, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade now offers similar data availability capacity, which challenges Celestia’s unique advantage.

What this means:
If Celestia captures more than half of the alternative data availability market (currently about $67 million in daily fees), it’s a positive sign. But if Ethereum and its layer 2 solutions dominate, TIA’s price could suffer—as seen with a 44% drop after the Fusaka upgrade (Bitget).

2. Tokenomics & Governance (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
TIA’s inflation rate has been reduced from 8% to 2.5% thanks to CIP-41, with plans to lower it further to 1.5% by 2030. Staking rewards are now locked in proportion to how many tokens are unlocked, which helps reduce selling pressure. A proposed Proof-of-Governance system could improve incentives by burning fees collected on the network.

What this means:
These deflationary measures (2.5% new tokens issued annually compared to the usual 5-10% for similar proof-of-stake chains) could help balance out token unlocks. However, a minimum 10% commission for validators might push smaller validators out, risking centralization.

3. Unlock Schedule & Early Investors (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
About 55.6 million TIA tokens (roughly 6.5% of total supply) will unlock between December 2025 and 2026 for early investors like Seed and Series A participants. Polychain’s $62.5 million exit in July 2025 set a precedent, with 43.45 million tokens sold in phases afterward.

What this means:
Past token unlocks have been linked to price drops of around 23% (for example, a 26% drop in October 2025). However, the Foundation’s controlled redistribution of tokens from August to November 2025 might reduce volatility compared to open-market sales.

Conclusion

TIA’s future depends on proving its modular blockchain approach is better than Ethereum’s scaling solutions and managing over $150 million in token unlocks without losing the $0.45 price support level. Keep an eye on the blobspace utilization rate—if it stays above 60%, that would indicate strong product-market fit. The big question: Can Celestia become the “AWS of data availability” before its inflation cuts lose their impact?

What are people saying about TIA?

The conversation around Celestia (TIA) is split between those who believe in its modular blockchain approach and those who are cautious based on price charts. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Will it break out or fall back? Traders are debating whether $0.60 will hold as support or if $0.65 will act as resistance.
2. Matcha upgrade excitement – The upcoming Proof of Governance (PoG) update might make TIA deflationary by late November.
3. “SOL 2021 vibes” – Some see TIA as an undervalued opportunity like Solana was in 2021, while others think it’s risky venture capital speculation.

Deep Dive

1. @airdropNFT009: Matcha Upgrade’s Make-or-Break Moment

"If $0.611 holds and Matcha rolls out cleanly, $TIA could reclaim $0.65+ as sentiment shifts back to accumulation."
– @airdropNFT009 (1K followers · 5.8M impressions · 2025-11-27 04:47 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is positive for TIA if the upgrade successfully links governance participation to reducing token supply. If the rollout fails, it could increase doubts about the value of modular blockchain tokens.

2. @MrHodlerian: The SOL 2021 Parallel

"$tia @celestia the $SOL 2021 trade"
– @MrHodlerian (1.7K followers · 3.8M impressions · 2025-12-27 21:47 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a neutral to slightly positive view, suggesting that TIA’s 95% drop from its all-time high is similar to Solana’s situation before its big breakout. However, Solana had more retail investor interest at similar market cap levels.

3. @Cito_Zone: Namespace Activity Spike

"Celestia Namespace activity is reaching ATH 👀 $TIA "
– @Cito_Zone (8.5K followers · 7.8M impressions · 2025-12-26 17:00 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for Celestia’s network use. The increase in data-layer activity (over 4.3 million daily transactions) supports the idea that TIA’s token could gain value through “data gas” fees, although the price hasn’t yet reflected this increased usage.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook on TIA is cautiously optimistic. Investors are weighing the potential of modular blockchain technology against recent weak price performance. Technical analysis points to a key price range between $0.60 and $0.65. The Matcha upgrade, currently live on testnet, could change the token’s economics by the end of the year. Keep an eye on the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.545 — if the price stays above this, it may indicate accumulation, but falling below could lead to testing the November low of $0.52. For stronger confidence, watch if the growth in namespace activity leads to more fee burns after the Matcha upgrade.

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is navigating a mixed market environment. Here’s a quick summary of what’s happening:

1. Modular Demand Tested (Dec 22, 2025) – Selling pressure continues as excitement around modular blockchains cools, but the network’s core activity remains steady.
2. Portfolio Inclusion Spotlight (Dec 20, 2025) – An AI model from ChatGPT includes $100 worth of TIA in a 2026 model portfolio, highlighting its potential.
3. Namespace Activity Peaks (Dec 26, 2025) – On-chain data usage hits record highs, even though TIA’s price struggles.

Deep Dive

1. Modular Demand Tested (December 22, 2025)

Overview:
Celestia is experiencing selling pressure as interest in modular blockchains slows down amid a broader crypto market downturn. Futures open interest dropped by 24% in December, showing less leveraged trading. Despite this, the number of validators (over 1,450) and daily transactions (around 35,000) remain stable, indicating the network is still functioning well.

What this means:
This is a neutral sign for TIA. While the price reflects less hype, the steady network activity shows that the underlying technology is still in use. The long-term success of modular blockchains like Celestia depends on the growth of rollups, which are layers that bundle transactions for efficiency. (Cryptonewsland)

2. Portfolio Inclusion Spotlight (December 20, 2025)

Overview:
A ChatGPT model, commissioned by Finbold, included $100 worth of TIA in a hypothetical 2026 crypto portfolio. The AI highlighted Celestia’s unique role in separating data availability from transaction execution, which could be important if modular blockchain designs become standard.

What this means:
This is cautiously optimistic. Recognition from AI-driven investment models could bring new interest and capital to Celestia. However, actual adoption and real-world use remain key, especially since TIA’s price has dropped 95% from its 2024 peak. (Finbold)

3. Namespace Activity Peaks (December 26, 2025)

Overview:
Celestia’s Namespace usage, which tracks data storage for rollups, hit an all-time high this week with over 42,000 data blobs processed daily. This growth happened even though TIA’s price is around $0.48, down 66% over the past three months.

What this means:
This is a positive long-term indicator. Increased data usage shows real demand for Celestia’s services, but the price drop suggests the market is skeptical about how this usage translates into value for TIA holders. The key will be turning this activity into demand for TIA tokens through fee structures. (Cito Zone)

Conclusion

Celestia’s situation is a mix of strong technical use and tough market conditions. While AI models and on-chain data point to potential, TIA needs clear adoption milestones to recover its value. The big question for 2026 is whether modular blockchains like Celestia will move from a promising idea to essential infrastructure.

What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s roadmap is focused on improving its blockchain infrastructure to handle more data and work better with other blockchains:

1. Scaling to 1GB Blocks (2025–2026) – Increasing the amount of data the network can process to support high-demand apps.
2. Verifiable Light Nodes (2026) – Allowing users to verify data on any device without trusting a central source.
3. Lazy Bridging & Blobstream (2026–2027) – Making it easier to move assets and data between different blockchains.

In-Depth Look

1. Scaling to 1GB Blocks (2025–2026)

What it is: Celestia plans to handle blocks of data up to 1 gigabyte by improving how it processes and shares data. This upgrade aims to support very fast transaction speeds, similar to Visa’s network (~24,000 transactions per second), which is great for applications like online games and payment systems that need to process lots of data quickly. Some of the technical improvements include advanced error correction and processing multiple parts of a block at the same time (Celestia Roadmap).

Why it matters:

• Positive: More capacity means developers can build bigger and more complex apps, increasing demand for Celestia’s token, TIA, used to pay for data storage.
• Potential downside: Running a node might require more powerful hardware, which could lead to fewer people running nodes and more centralization.

2. Verifiable Light Nodes (2026)

What it is: Light nodes are simplified versions of blockchain nodes that can run in web browsers. They let users check that data on Celestia is correct without needing to trust a central service. Early versions are already working (Celestia Roadmap).

Why it matters:

• Positive: This improves security and decentralization, making it safer and easier for people to use Celestia-based apps.
• Neutral: The benefits depend on how many developers and users adopt this technology.

3. Lazy Bridging & Blobstream (2026–2027)

What it is:

• Lazy Bridging: Helps move assets between different rollup blockchains more smoothly by using atomic swaps, which are secure and automatic exchanges.
• Blobstream: Sends Celestia’s data proofs to other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, enabling secure and trustless connections between chains (Hyperlane Integration).

Why it matters:

• Positive: These features expand Celestia’s usefulness beyond its own network and create new ways to earn fees.
• Potential downside: Other similar technologies, like EigenDA, might compete and limit how widely these features are adopted.

Conclusion

Celestia is working to become a key player in modular blockchain technology by focusing on scalability, security, and interoperability. While there are challenges ahead, successfully delivering these upgrades could make TIA an essential token for rollup-based blockchain ecosystems. The big question remains: will modular blockchains like Celestia grow faster than traditional, all-in-one blockchains?

What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia (TIA) recently rolled out two major upgrades to improve its blockchain network: Matcha for better scaling and Lotus for easier cross-chain transfers.

1. Matcha Upgrade (October 2025) – Increases block size to 128MB, cuts inflation in half, and removes restrictions on token transfers.
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Adds Hyperlane integration for direct TIA transfers across different blockchains and lowers token issuance by 33%.
3. Core Protocol Updates (December 2025) – Improves validator functions and reduces storage needs for network nodes.

Deep Dive

1. Matcha Upgrade (October 2025)

What it is: The Matcha upgrade boosts Celestia’s block size from 8MB to 128MB, allowing the network to handle much more data at once. It also cuts the yearly inflation rate from 5% to 2.5%, meaning fewer new tokens are created each year.

Technical highlights:

• Uses a new method to spread blocks faster without copying everything fully
• Removes token filters, so any asset can be bridged using IBC or Hyperlane
• Extends validator capabilities to support off-chain protocols like Vacuum!
• Reduces storage needs for light nodes by about 77% by pruning data older than 7 days

Why it matters: Larger blocks mean Celestia can support more data-heavy applications, especially rollups (layer 2 solutions that bundle transactions). Lower inflation helps make TIA tokens more scarce and valuable. Developers can now bridge a wider variety of tokens natively.
(Source)

2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

What it is: The Lotus upgrade integrates Hyperlane directly into Celestia, allowing TIA tokens to move seamlessly between Celestia and other blockchains like Ethereum and Arbitrum.

Key features:

• Added new modules (x/core and x/warp) to handle cross-chain token transfers
• Reduced annual inflation from 7.2% to about 5% through CIP-29
• Locked staking rewards to align with token vesting schedules (CIP-31)

Why it matters: While this upgrade might not immediately affect TIA’s price, it strengthens the network’s long-term potential by lowering token supply growth and making TIA a hub for cross-chain activity. It also improves how locked tokens are managed for stakers.
(Source)

3. Validator & Node Optimizations (December 2025)

What it is: Recent updates improve how validators sign messages and optimize node storage.

Details:

• Validators can now sign off-chain messages, like pre-block commitments
• Light nodes prune old block headers (older than 7 days), cutting storage needs to about 10GB
• Fixed peer connection logic to reduce errors in transaction ordering

Why it matters: These technical improvements help nodes run more efficiently and reliably, supporting the overall health and growth of the Celestia network.

Conclusion

Celestia’s latest upgrades focus on making the network more scalable, improving cross-chain functionality, and creating a more sustainable token economy. As Matcha’s larger blocks come online, watch for increased usage and TIA liquidity driven by Hyperlane. The key question remains: will the reduced token issuance help balance out any price pressures from the broader crypto market?