Why did the price of TIA fall?
Celestia (TIA) dropped 3.15% in the last 24 hours to $0.58, underperforming the mostly steady crypto market, which rose 0.79%. This decline comes after a strong 17.28% rally over the past month, combined with doubts about its new Fibre upgrade and technical resistance at key price points.
- Profit-Taking After Rally – Investors cashed in gains following TIA’s recent surge.
- Fibre Upgrade Skepticism – The new 1 Tb/s data protocol didn’t spark immediate buying interest.
- Technical Resistance – Price hit a ceiling at $0.62, adding downward pressure.
Deep Dive
1. Profit-Taking After Rally (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
TIA climbed 17.28% over 30 days, peaking at $0.62 on January 14, 2026, before pulling back. This rally likely led short-term traders to sell and lock in profits. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance dipped slightly (-0.35% in 24 hours), indicating a shift toward less risk.
What this means:
Altcoins like TIA often face selling pressure when Bitcoin dominance steadies after a rally. The 24-hour trading volume ratio (10.1%) shows moderate market activity, which can increase price swings when investors exit positions.
Key metric to watch:
The contrast between the 30-day gain (+17.28%) and the recent 24-hour drop (-3.15%) suggests the market is taking a breather.
2. Fibre Upgrade Reaction (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
On January 14, Celestia launched Fibre, a new data protocol designed to handle 1 terabit per second of throughput. Despite its technical promise, investors remain cautious about how quickly it will be adopted.
What this means:
Fibre could support fast, on-chain activities like real-time auctions, but its success depends on developers building on the platform. Without immediate practical uses, the market reacted by selling after the news.
What to look out for:
Watch for updates on Fibre’s mainnet rollout and how many rollups (layer-2 solutions) start using Celestia’s network, measured by metrics like blobs per day.
3. Technical Resistance & Market Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
TIA’s price was pushed back at $0.62, which aligns with a common technical resistance level known as the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement ($0.577). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) cooled down from overbought levels to 58.66, and the MACD indicator turned negative.
What this means:
The price remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.23, signaling a longer-term downtrend. If selling continues, traders will watch the next support level at $0.53.
Key metric to watch:
A close above the 7-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.56 could indicate a rebound. If it fails, the price might test the 90-day low near $0.48.
Conclusion
TIA’s recent decline reflects investors taking profits after a strong month, cautious sentiment about the Fibre upgrade’s near-term impact, and technical hurdles. While the idea of modular blockchains like Celestia remains promising, TIA needs clear adoption milestones to reverse its steep 87.65% drop over the past year.
Key watch: Will Fibre’s testnet, Arabica, generate meaningful on-chain activity this quarter?
What could affect the price of TIA?
Celestia’s price is balancing between hopes for wider adoption of its modular technology and pressures from token supply.
- Fibre Upgrade Impact – The upcoming upgrade could provide 1 terabit per second of blockspace, potentially boosting demand if adoption grows (Positive)
- Inflation & Token Unlocks – Inflation has dropped to 2.5% (down 6.7% yearly), but ongoing token unlocks may increase supply (Negative)
- Modular Blockchain Momentum – Positioned as a leading data layer in a growing sector, but with mixed signals (Neutral)
Deep Dive
1. Fibre Upgrade & Ecosystem Growth (Positive)
What’s happening: Celestia plans to launch the Fibre upgrade on January 14, 2026. This upgrade will allow the network to handle 1 terabit per second of blockspace, which is a huge increase in capacity. This could support high-demand applications like real-time auctions and micropayments. Early tests showed 498 nodes successfully managing this speed. The key to success is attracting “rollups” — secondary layers that bundle transactions — which need scalable data availability (DA).
Why it matters: If Fibre leads to more rollups using Celestia and paying fees in TIA tokens, it could create steady demand and push prices up. However, Celestia faces competition from other projects like Ethereum’s Danksharding and Avail, which offer similar solutions.
2. Tokenomics: Inflation Cuts vs. Unlock Overhang (Negative)
What’s happening: The inflation rate for TIA tokens has dropped significantly—from 8% in 2023 to 2.5% after the version 6 upgrade in November 2025. Inflation is expected to keep decreasing by 6.7% annually until it reaches 1.5%. Despite this, about 25% of tokens allocated for research and development and early investors (Seed and Series A rounds) are still being unlocked throughout 2026.
Why it matters: Lower inflation means fewer new tokens entering the market, which can help reduce selling pressure over time. But the ongoing daily unlocks (around 995,000 TIA tokens per day as of July 2025) increase supply and can dilute value. For example, a large sale of $62.5 million worth of TIA by Polychain in July 2025 contributed to a 95% drop from the all-time high price.
3. Modular vs. Monolithic Blockchains (Neutral)
What’s happening: Celestia uses a modular design focused solely on data availability, unlike monolithic blockchains like Solana that handle all functions themselves. Over 30 rollups currently use Celestia, but the total value locked (TVL) on the platform is $2.31 million, far below its $64 million peak.
Why it matters: The future depends on whether developers prefer specialized data availability layers like Celestia or all-in-one blockchains. The Matcha upgrade in November 2025 added cross-chain interoperability, which could help, but the ecosystem still needs to grow.
Conclusion
The future of TIA depends on whether the Fibre upgrade can drive adoption enough to offset the impact of token unlocks and prove the value of modular blockchains. Key things to watch are the blobspace utilization rate after Fibre launches and upcoming token unlocks (especially Seed and Series A tokens in Q1 2026). If the price breaks above $0.65, it could signal growing momentum; if not, it might retest support around $0.48.
Will modular blockchains have their “ChatGPT moment” before inflation dynamics improve?
What are people saying about TIA?
The Celestia (TIA) community is balancing short-term concerns with hopes for long-term improvements. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Technical analysts see positive signs despite price ups and downs
- Developers are looking forward to the Matcha upgrade, which may reduce token supply
- Traders are focused on the $0.60 to $0.65 price range as a key support area
- Network activity is reaching new highs even though market sentiment is cautious
Deep Dive
1. Bullish Volume Signals
@TradiSigCrypto reports:
"🟢 Bullish Divergence: $TIA • Price: +1.0% (24h) • Volume: +22% (6h)"
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What this means: When trading volume rises significantly but price doesn’t move much, it often means investors are quietly buying up tokens. This can be a positive sign that prices may rise soon.
2. Matcha Upgrade Expectations
@airdropNFT009 notes:
"🟣 $TIA cools off as market waits for Matcha upgrade – could turn $TIA deflationary"
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What this means: The upcoming Matcha upgrade might reduce the total number of tokens in circulation, which could increase value over time. However, some traders are selling now to lock in profits before the upgrade, causing short-term price pressure.
3. Key Price Support Zone
@Finora_EN highlights:
"Support: $0.611 critical level bulls must defend • Resistance: $0.650 breakout zone"
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What this means: The $0.60 to $0.65 price range is a crucial battleground. If prices fall below $0.611, it could trigger more selling. But if prices hold and break above $0.65, it might start a positive trend.
4. Network Activity Hits New Highs
@Cito_Zone reports:
"Celestia Namespace activity reaching ATH 👀 $TIA"
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What this means: Despite some bearish market feelings, the Celestia network is seeing record levels of use. This suggests growing interest and adoption, which could support future price gains.
Conclusion
The outlook for Celestia (TIA) is mixed. Technical traders see signs of accumulation, while investors are watching the Matcha upgrade’s impact on token supply. Keep an eye on the $0.611 support level—if prices drop below this, it could lead to more selling. But if prices bounce back, it would support the idea that a positive price move is coming.
What is the latest news about TIA?
Celestia (TIA) is making big moves with new technology but faces some market uncertainty. Here’s what’s driving TIA right now:
- Fibre Launch (January 14, 2026) – Offers super-fast blockspace at 1 terabit per second for next-generation blockchain apps.
- Staking Upgrade (January 7, 2026) – Validator fees doubled to help keep staking rewards steady.
- Technical Momentum (January 14, 2026) – A chart pattern suggests TIA could rise about 38%.
Deep Dive
1. Fibre Launch: 1 Tb/s Blockspace (January 14, 2026)
What’s happening?
Celestia rolled out Fibre, a new system that can handle data at 1 terabit per second — that’s roughly 1.25 billion transactions every second. This lets high-demand uses like real-time ad auctions and tiny payments run smoothly, while the main Celestia blockchain stays focused on supporting early-stage rollups (smaller blockchains built on top).
Why it matters
This upgrade could open the door to new kinds of blockchain applications that weren’t possible before. But its success depends on how many developers start building on it. The test version will be available soon (CoinMarketCap).
2. Validator Commission Hike (January 7, 2026)
What’s happening?
Celestia raised the maximum fees that validators (the network’s transaction verifiers) can charge from 10% to 20%. This helps cover higher costs and aims to keep staking rewards steady at about 8-10% annually.
Why it matters
In the short term, this might be a downside for people staking their coins because they’ll get less reward. But it could attract more professional validators, which would make the network more secure (source).
3. Technical Breakout Setup (January 14, 2026)
What’s happening?
The price of TIA is showing a “cup-and-handle” pattern around $0.60, which often signals a potential price increase. Analysts think TIA could jump about 38% to $0.82 if Bitcoin keeps rising. The Money Flow Index, a tool that measures buying and selling pressure, is also showing signs of renewed interest.
Why it matters
This is a cautiously optimistic sign. If TIA’s price moves above $0.65, it could confirm the pattern and lead to gains. But if it falls below $0.53, it might drop further to $0.48 (Yahoo Finance).
Conclusion
Celestia’s Fibre upgrade sets it up as a key player for ultra-fast blockchain apps. Meanwhile, changes to staking and technical signals show TIA is balancing innovation with some market caution. The big question: Can TIA make the most of its unique approach before the next altcoin season slows down?
What is expected in the development of TIA?
Celestia’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability, security, and ecosystem connectivity. Key upcoming milestones include:
- Fibre Mainnet Launch (2026) – Scaling blockspace capacity to 1 terabit per second
- Light Node Integration (2026) – Enabling wallet-level data verification
- Lazy Bridging Launch (2026) – Simplifying asset transfers across rollups
Deep Dive
1. Fibre Mainnet Launch (2026)
What it is: Fibre is Celestia’s new data availability protocol designed to handle extremely high data throughput—up to 1 terabit per second. It uses advanced technology called Zero-Knowledge Optimized Data Availability (ZODA) to speed up data encoding by 881 times compared to previous methods. Fibre was first tested on the Arabica testnet in early 2026 and will be rolled out in phases to support applications like real-time advertising auctions and small automated payments.
Why it matters: This upgrade could increase demand for Celestia’s blockspace (the data storage capacity on the network) and generate more fee revenue, which is positive for the Celestia token (TIA). However, if adoption by developers and users is slow, the benefits may not be fully realized.
2. Light Node Integration (2026)
What it is: This feature allows users to run “light nodes” directly in their wallets. Light nodes are simplified versions of blockchain nodes that verify data without needing to download the entire blockchain. This is part of Celestia’s “Verifiable Blockspace” initiative, which aims to let users independently confirm the accuracy of data on Celestia without relying on third-party services.
Why it matters: By reducing dependence on centralized data providers (oracles), this improves security and trust, especially for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. It could increase the usefulness of TIA tokens. However, delays in implementation or competing technologies could limit its impact.
3. Lazy Bridging Launch (2026)
What it is: Lazy Bridging is a solution to make transferring assets between different Celestia-based rollups (layer-2 blockchains) easier and more efficient. It reduces the complexity users face when moving tokens across these networks by using shared security pools to ensure safe and smooth transactions.
Why it matters: This seamless interoperability could encourage more developers and users to adopt rollups built on Celestia, boosting demand for TIA through transaction fees. On the downside, technical challenges or limited liquidity sharing could slow down its success.
Conclusion
Celestia’s roadmap is centered on building a scalable, secure, and user-friendly infrastructure that supports the growing rollup ecosystem. The success of these technical upgrades will likely influence how the TIA token’s economics evolve to support network growth and adoption.
What updates are there in the TIA code base?
Celestia's latest software update, called the Matcha upgrade, improves scalability and fine-tunes its token economics.
- Matcha Upgrade (Expected Late 2025) – Increases block size to 128MB and lowers inflation to 2.5%.
- Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Enables cross-chain transfers and reduces token inflation.
Deep Dive
1. Matcha Upgrade (Expected Late 2025)
Overview: The Matcha upgrade raises Celestia’s maximum block size to 128MB, which is 16 times larger than before. This allows the network to handle more data, supporting rollups (a way to bundle transactions) and other data-heavy applications. It also cuts the annual inflation rate of TIA tokens from 5% to 2.5%, and removes limits on moving tokens across different blockchains using IBC and Hyperlane technologies.
What this means: This is positive news for TIA holders because bigger blocks mean Celestia can support more applications, potentially increasing demand for its data services. Lower inflation may reduce the number of tokens being sold over time, helping maintain value. Plus, the ability to move tokens freely across blockchains strengthens Celestia’s position as a hub for multiple networks.
(Source)
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)
Overview: The Lotus upgrade added Hyperlane, which allows smooth transfers of TIA tokens between Celestia and over 100 other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. It also cut TIA’s annual inflation by about one-third and changed staking rewards so that earnings are locked in line with token vesting schedules.
What this means: This upgrade is neutral for TIA’s price in the short term. Cross-chain transfers make the token more useful for developers, but locking staking rewards might limit how much large holders can trade for a while. The inflation reduction helps balance making tokens scarcer while still encouraging network security through staking.
(Source)
Conclusion
Together, the Matcha and Lotus upgrades improve Celestia’s ability to scale and connect with other blockchains. While lower inflation could impact token supply dynamics in the near term, these changes may speed up the adoption of rollups and modular blockchain ecosystems. How will these upgrades shape the future of cross-chain applications?