Why did the price of TIA go up?

Celestia (TIA) increased by 5.22% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which gained 0.63%. This rise is driven by positive technical signals, important updates to its network, and changes in market sentiment.

1. Technical Rebound: Indicators suggest TIA is recovering after a long period of decline.
2. Fibre Upgrade: The January 13 launch of a faster data protocol improves the network’s potential for adoption.
3. Staking Adjustment: On January 15, validator fees increased, helping stabilize the network’s economics.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound (Positive Signal)

Overview: TIA has moved back above its 7-day average price ($0.565) and shows a bullish MACD crossover, which means momentum is picking up after a 44% drop over 90 days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, indicating there’s still room for the price to rise without being overbought.
What this means: Buying activity was triggered near the $0.53 support level, helped by traders covering short positions. This pattern matches past recoveries when the RSI moves up from oversold conditions.
What to watch: If TIA can stay above $0.59, it could confirm a breakout. If not, the price might test the $0.53 support again.

2. Fibre Upgrade Boosts Adoption (Positive Signal)

Overview: Celestia launched its Fibre upgrade on January 13, enabling data speeds of 1 terabit per second—881 times faster than Ethereum’s current data commitments. This opens the door for high-demand applications like real-time advertising auctions.
What this means: TIA is positioning itself as a key platform for data-heavy decentralized apps (dApps), which could increase demand for its data storage space (“blobspace”) and make the token more useful. Developers see Fibre’s scalability as a strong base for new digital economies.
What to watch: Performance data from the Arabica testnet and the timeline for full mainnet rollout.

3. Staking Incentives Updated (Positive Signal)

Overview: Validator commissions increased from 10% to 20% on January 15 to cover higher operational costs, aiming for a staking annual percentage yield (APY) of 8-10%.
What this means: Higher rewards may encourage long-term holding of TIA tokens, reducing the number of tokens available for trading. This change helps secure the network by lowering selling pressure from recently unlocked tokens.

Conclusion

TIA’s recent price increase is supported by both technical recovery signs and fundamental improvements like the Fibre upgrade and better staking rewards. Although the token is still 44% below its 90-day high, watching how quickly Fibre is adopted and whether TIA maintains support around $0.58 will be important for sustained growth.
Key points to monitor: Growth in blobspace usage and validator participation following the commission increase.

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What could affect the price of TIA?

Celestia (TIA) faces a mix of challenges and opportunities. In the short term, there’s some pressure on the token, but there could be strong growth potential down the road.

1. Matcha Upgrade – Improvements in scalability and token economics might increase demand.
2. Tokenomics Changes – Daily token releases and lower inflation affect supply and price.
3. Market Conditions – Weak altcoin market and competition create obstacles.

In-Depth Look

1. Matcha Upgrade (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening:
The Matcha upgrade is currently live on the test network, with mainnet launch coming soon. It increases block size to 128MB, allowing more data to be processed at once. Inflation is cut from 5% to 2.5% annually, and the upgrade enables easier transfer of assets across different blockchains. This positions Celestia as a neutral data layer that supports other blockchain applications called rollups.

Why It Matters:
Lower inflation means fewer new tokens are created, making existing TIA tokens more scarce and potentially more valuable. Better cross-chain compatibility could increase demand for TIA, as users pay fees in TIA to use Celestia’s data space. If more projects adopt Celestia, this could create natural buying pressure on the token.

2. Tokenomics & Unlocks (Negative Outlook)

What’s Happening:
About 995,000 TIA tokens are unlocked daily (worth roughly $582,000 at current prices), though this will decrease to 344,000 tokens per day by March 2026. Early investors, like Polychain, have sold off large amounts, contributing to a price drop of over 90% since mid-2024 (source).

Why It Matters:
Continuous token unlocking and investor selling put downward pressure on the price. While the Celestia foundation has over $100 million in reserves to support development, this doesn’t directly reduce the number of tokens flooding the market. Keeping an eye on daily unlock amounts and how many tokens enter exchanges is important to understand future price moves.

3. Competition & Market Sentiment (Mixed Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Celestia competes with Ethereum’s upcoming Danksharding upgrade and Solana’s all-in-one blockchain model. Although over 50 projects currently use Celestia’s data layer, total value locked (TVL) has dropped 95% to just $2.3 million (source). Overall, altcoin market sentiment is weak, with Bitcoin dominating 58.9% of the market.

Why It Matters:
If Celestia can attract more valuable rollups and projects, it could prove its usefulness and boost TIA’s value. However, if it fails to do so, negative sentiment may continue. The token’s price is currently below all major moving averages, signaling skepticism about how soon adoption will pick up.

Conclusion

TIA’s future depends largely on the success of the Matcha upgrade and reducing the pressure from token unlocks. However, broader market challenges and ongoing token releases pose risks in the near term. Holding support around $0.55 could lead to a potential price increase toward $0.80. The key question remains: can Celestia onboard enough rollups to balance inflation before 2027?

What are people saying about TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is facing mixed reactions, swinging between hopeful optimism and cautious concern. Here’s the latest:

1. Price is testing key support around $0.55–$0.61
2. Supporters highlight its real infrastructure potential, while others remember the sharp 95% drop from its all-time high
3. Token unlocks continue daily, prompting close attention to supply and demand
4. A $100 million reserve fund fuels long-term confidence
5. Excitement around the upcoming Fibre upgrade meets broader weakness in alternative cryptocurrencies

In-Depth Analysis

1. Technical Trends vs. Upgrade Potential – Mixed Signals

@N_fozz notes:
"Price is testing support near $0.55–$0.61 after a spike in volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50 and climbing, showing early signs of exhaustion but no clear reversal yet. The upcoming Fibre launch in January 2026 promises a data throughput of 1 terabit per second."
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What this means: The technical indicators show uncertainty, balancing between a possible rebound and ongoing weakness. The Fibre upgrade could significantly improve network performance, but the overall market for alternative cryptocurrencies remains weak.

2. Undervalued Infrastructure Opportunity – Bullish Outlook

@Artualist shares:
"While many focus on hype, Celestia quietly builds real, scalable infrastructure. Its market cap doesn’t yet reflect this vision."
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What this means: For investors who believe in Celestia’s modular blockchain approach, this could be a promising long-term opportunity. However, patience is needed since the current price of $0.584 is down 95% from its peak.

3. Rollup Fee Model – A Long-Term Bet

@MrMinNin explains:
"Every rollup using Celestia must buy $TIA tokens to pay fees, similar to how Ethereum uses gas fees for data availability. At around $1, the market seems to be overlooking this potential."
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What this means: This fee model could make $TIA a crucial part of crypto’s data infrastructure in the future. However, this depends on wider adoption of modular blockchains, which is still in early stages.

4. Token Unlock Schedule – Neutral Impact

@kerimcalender reports:
"About 995,000 $TIA tokens unlock daily, decreasing to 344,000 in 55 days. Currently, 65.6% of tokens are already in circulation."
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What this means: The daily unlocks could add selling pressure, but this is expected to ease soon. The market’s daily trading volume of $445 million should be able to handle the current supply.

5. Profit-Taking vs. Derivatives Momentum – Mixed Signals

AMBCrypto notes:
"TIA’s price jumped 16% despite $2.97 million in spot selling. Meanwhile, derivatives traders remain optimistic, supported by a positive funding rate of 0.0057%."
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What this means: There’s a tug-of-war between traders cashing in profits and others betting on continued gains, leading to price swings.

Conclusion

The outlook for Celestia (TIA) is mixed. Its innovative modular blockchain design and upcoming Fibre upgrade offer real promise, supported by a strong $100 million treasury. However, the market remains cautious due to a steep 95% drop from its all-time high. Watch the $0.65 price level closely—a sustained move above this could signal a potential recovery after the lows seen earlier this year.

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia is making big technical strides and adapting to market changes with its new Fibre upgrade, which aims to improve scalability. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:

1. Fibre Launch (January 14, 2026) – Celestia introduced Fibre, a data availability protocol that can handle 1 terabit per second (Tb/s), designed for high-speed applications.
2. Smart Capital Spotlight (January 15, 2026) – Experts point out early distribution issues with TIA but recognize its importance in modular blockchain technology.
3. Technical Breakout Setup (January 14, 2026) – Traders see a potential bullish pattern that could lead to price gains.

In-Depth Look

1. Fibre Launch (January 14, 2026)

What happened:
Celestia rolled out Fibre Blockspace, a new system that allows data to be shared at incredibly fast speeds—up to 1 terabit per second. This is meant to support demanding applications like real-time ad auctions and on-chain trading. Fibre uses a technology called Zero-Knowledge Optimized Data Availability (ZODA), which is about 881 times faster than Ethereum’s current method. Tests on nearly 500 Google Cloud servers showed it can scale effectively.

Why it matters:
This upgrade is a positive sign for TIA because it broadens what Celestia can do beyond just early-stage rollups (a type of blockchain scaling solution). However, the real impact depends on how many developers start using Fibre, and it’s still unclear how this will affect demand for the TIA token. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Smart Capital Spotlight (January 15, 2026)

What happened:
A CoinMarketCap report compared Celestia’s rapid price increase in 2023–2024 to newer projects like ZKP that focus on fair token distribution. While TIA’s ecosystem growth is important, the report notes that early concentration of tokens limited profits for later investors.

Why it matters:
This is a neutral point for TIA. The modular blockchain approach could add value, but past token distribution issues might limit enthusiasm from everyday investors unless the network sees more activity. (CoinMarketCap)

3. Technical Breakout Setup (January 14, 2026)

What happened:
On the daily price chart, TIA formed a “cup-and-handle” pattern, which often signals a potential price increase. Analysts suggest there could be a 38% rise, pushing the price to about $0.82 if buying momentum continues. The Money Flow Index (MFI), an indicator of buying pressure, has also improved.

Why it matters:
This is cautiously optimistic. If TIA’s price breaks above $0.65, it could confirm the bullish pattern. But if it falls below $0.53, the price might drop to $0.48. Overall weakness in the altcoin market adds some risk. (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Celestia’s Fibre upgrade puts it at the forefront of blockchain scalability. Still, the future price of TIA depends on how well it balances this technical progress with ongoing concerns about token distribution. The big question is whether Fibre’s ability to handle terabit-scale data will attract enough projects to overcome broader market challenges.

What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability, making cross-chain interactions easier, and refining its token economics from 2025 to 2030.

1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2030) – Increase data capacity to support more rollups
2. Lazy Bridging (2025–2030) – Allow quick and easy transfers between rollups
3. Proof of Governance (2025–2030) – Cut token issuance and introduce token burns to reduce supply

Deep Dive

1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2030)

Overview: Celestia plans to expand its “blobspace,” which is the data storage area that rollups use to publish their information. By increasing this capacity and improving how data is checked for availability, Celestia aims to handle more transactions and rollups efficiently. This helps solve current limits on how much data the network can process as more projects use it. Developers are working on features like dynamic block sizes to adjust capacity as needed (@checkmatexxxxxx).

What this means: This is good news for Celestia’s token, TIA, because supporting more rollups means more demand for data services, which can increase token use and value. However, if these upgrades take too long, competitors like Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade could attract users away.

2. Lazy Bridging (2025–2030)

Overview: Lazy Bridging is a new technology using zero-knowledge proofs to enable instant transfers of assets between different Celestia-based rollups. A demo in 2023 showed TIA tokens moving between chains in less than one second. After testing, this feature will launch on the main network, making it easier for users to move assets and liquidity across rollups without delays (Celestia Blog).

What this means: This is positive for TIA because smoother and faster cross-rollup transfers can increase user activity and liquidity, boosting the network’s overall value. On the downside, there are risks if the zero-knowledge proof technology has security flaws or if rollups are slow to adopt this feature.

3. Proof of Governance (2025–2030)

Overview: Proposed in mid-2025, Proof of Governance (PoG) would significantly reduce TIA’s yearly token issuance from 5% down to 0.25%, while also introducing token burns through transaction fees. This approach aims to reduce inflation and make TIA more scarce. The change depends on approval from the Celestia community through governance voting (CoinMarketCap).

What this means: This could be good for TIA’s value by limiting new token supply. However, if staking rewards become too low due to token burns, validators might be less motivated to secure the network, which could affect network health.

Conclusion

Celestia’s roadmap is centered on expanding its infrastructure, making cross-rollup interactions seamless, and creating a sustainable token economy. These are important steps for maintaining its role in the growing modular blockchain space. The success of these plans and how quickly they are adopted will shape TIA’s future utility and value. One key question remains: how will Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade affect Celestia’s position as a leader in data availability?

What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s software is evolving to make the network more efficient and improve economic rewards for participants.

1. Validator Commission Increase (Jan 15, 2026) – Raised the maximum commission validators can charge from 10% to 20% to help keep staking rewards stable.
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Added Hyperlane for easier transfers between blockchains and cut inflation by about one-third.
3. Matcha Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Increased block size to 128MB, cut inflation in half to 2.5%, and removed limits on moving tokens between chains.

Deep Dive

1. Validator Commission Increase (Jan 15, 2026)

What happened: Celestia raised the cap on how much commission validators can charge from 10% to 20%. Validators are the network participants who help secure the blockchain by processing transactions and maintaining the system.

Why it matters: This change helps validators cover rising costs and keeps staking rewards competitive, aiming for an annual return of 8–10%. While higher commissions might mean slightly lower rewards for individual stakers, it encourages more validators to join, which strengthens the network’s security.

Bottom line: This update is neutral for Celestia’s token, TIA. It balances incentives for validators and users but is worth watching to see how staking rewards evolve. (Source)

2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

What happened: Celestia integrated Hyperlane, a tool that allows tokens to move easily between different blockchains like Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. It also reduced the yearly inflation rate from 7.2% to about 5% and locked staking rewards for certain accounts to prevent quick sell-offs.

Why it matters: Cross-chain transfers expand how TIA can be used, making it more versatile. Lower inflation means fewer new tokens are created, which can increase scarcity and potentially value. Locking rewards encourages long-term holding, reducing pressure to sell.

Bottom line: This upgrade is positive for TIA, improving its utility and making the token more attractive for holders. (Source)

3. Matcha Upgrade (Q4 2025)

What happened: Celestia increased the block size to 128MB, allowing more data to be processed at once. It also cut inflation further to 2.5% and removed restrictions on bridging non-TIA tokens, making it easier to move various assets across blockchains.

Why it matters: Larger blocks support more activity and growth in Celestia’s modular blockchain ecosystem. Lower inflation improves token scarcity, which can be good for value. Removing bridging limits enhances liquidity and asset movement across chains.

Bottom line: This upgrade strengthens Celestia’s position in the growing decentralized finance (DeFi) space by supporting more transactions and cross-chain activity. (Source)

Conclusion

Celestia’s recent updates focus on making the network scalable, interoperable, and economically sustainable—key factors for long-term success. The validator commission increase balances rewards for operators and users, while the Lotus and Matcha upgrades build a foundation for Celestia to lead in modular blockchain technology. As adoption grows, how will these improvements shape TIA’s role in cross-chain DeFi?