Why did the price of TAO fall?

Bittensor (TAO) dropped 2.57% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which gained 1.02%. The main reasons include:

1. Technical Setback – TAO couldn’t break above the $400 resistance level, showing signs of downward momentum.
2. Market Shift Away from Altcoins – As Bitcoin gains dominance, investors are less interested in altcoins like TAO.
3. Profit-Taking Before Halving – Traders are selling some TAO ahead of the supply cut expected in December.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Technical Resistance Holds Strong (Bearish Signal)

Summary: TAO tried but failed to stay above $400, a key price point that many traders watch. Earlier this week, it broke a downward trendline but couldn’t maintain the momentum. The 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is struggling to rise above the 21-day EMA, which usually means buyers are weak (CryptoFrontNews).

What this means: The price range between $350 and $460 is now very important. If TAO closes below $360, it could fall further toward $332, which is a significant support level based on Fibonacci retracement—a tool traders use to predict price moves. Indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 45.97 and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) at -10.75 suggest selling pressure is still strong.

What to watch: If TAO can climb back above $400, it would challenge the current bearish trend.

2. Altcoins Lose Favor as Bitcoin Dominates (Mixed Impact)

Summary: The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, indicating “Extreme Fear” among investors. At the same time, Bitcoin’s market share (dominance) has risen to 59.3%. This means money is moving away from riskier altcoins like TAO and into Bitcoin and stablecoins.

What this means: TAO’s 23% drop over the past week matches a broader trend where many altcoins are falling (for example, SPX6900 down 25%, Virtuals Protocol down 20%). Investors are playing it safe amid uncertainty around U.S. government financial policies.

What to watch: Look for signs that Bitcoin’s dominance might decrease or that the Altcoin Season Index (currently 30 out of 100) improves, which could signal renewed interest in altcoins.

3. Profit-Taking Ahead of Halving Event (Neutral to Bearish)

Summary: TAO’s first halving event is scheduled for December 2025. This event will cut daily token emissions by half, which usually creates scarcity and can boost prices. However, some miners and network participants are selling now to lock in profits, adding selling pressure.

What this means: While the halving could be positive in the long run, short-term uncertainty remains. Large investors like Grayscale’s TAO Trust and Nasdaq-listed companies such as TAO Synergies have been buying tokens worth over $10 million, but this hasn’t fully balanced out retail investors selling.

What to watch: Monitor on-chain data showing miner activity and subnet performance after the halving.

Conclusion

TAO’s recent price drop is due to a combination of technical challenges, a general slowdown in altcoin interest, and traders preparing for the upcoming halving. Although the long-term outlook is supported by growing AI use cases and institutional buying, short-term risks are causing caution.

Key level to watch: Can TAO hold the $350 support? Falling below this could speed up losses, while moving back above $400 might spark renewed buying ahead of the halving-driven supply reduction.

What could affect the price of TAO?

Bittensor's price depends on how widely AI is adopted, changes in its token system, and overall market trends.

1. Halving (Dec 2025) – Cutting supply by half could create scarcity and boost prices
2. Subnet Growth – Over 128 AI subnets now generate more than $20 million in yearly revenue
3. Institutional Interest – Grayscale filing for a TAO Trust and a $16 million public ETP launch
4. Crypto Sentiment – Fear index at 29 could reduce liquidity for altcoins

In-Depth Look

1. Halving & Tokenomics Changes (Positive for Price)

What’s Happening:
On December 10-11, 2025, Bittensor (TAO) will undergo its first halving, cutting daily token emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO. This is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to creating scarcity. At the same time, a new upgrade (dTAO) will link 30% of token emissions to the performance of AI subnets, encouraging real-world use rather than speculation.

Why It Matters:
Bitcoin halvings have historically led to 6-18 month price rallies. TAO’s circulating supply is currently 10.3 million tokens (about 49% of the total possible supply). With inflation dropping from 3.6% to 1.8% annually, prices could rise if demand for AI products grows. However, miners might sell tokens before the halving to secure profits, which could cause short-term price swings (CryptoFrontNews).

2. Subnet Adoption vs. Competition (Mixed Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Bittensor supports 128+ AI subnets that perform tasks like fraud detection (MIID) and code generation (Ridges). It leads the decentralized AI space with a $4.5 billion market cap. Still, competitors like ICP (which rose 200% in October 2025) and Render are challenging its position.

Why It Matters:
These subnets generate over $20 million in revenue annually (Yahoo Finance), showing there’s demand. But if Bittensor can’t expand beyond niche AI developers, bigger centralized players like OpenAI or faster-moving Web3 projects might take market share.

3. Institutional Moves & Liquidity (Positive for Stability)

What’s Happening:
Grayscale filed with the SEC to create a TAO Trust in October 2025, and Europe launched its first staked TAO Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) (Coinspeaker). Public companies like xTAO hold 41,538 TAO tokens, worth about $16 million.

Why It Matters:
These regulated products help reduce price swings caused by retail traders and attract long-term investors. However, TAO’s current price of $374 is still 70% below its all-time high of $1,248. Early investors might sell near resistance levels around $540.

Conclusion

Bittensor’s outlook for 2026 depends on AI adoption and market cycles. The halving and growing subnet revenue could push prices toward $500-$720 if the network maintains over 20% annual revenue growth. Keep an eye on December’s emission changes and the Yuma Subnet Composite Fund’s activity as key indicators.

Will TAO’s AI growth overcome Bitcoin-driven market swings after the halving?

What are people saying about TAO?

Bittensor’s TAO token is gaining attention as it rides the wave of excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) and prepares for its first halving event. Here’s what’s happening right now:

1. Big investors are buying TAO – Companies like Grayscale, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and other public firms are accumulating tokens.
2. Halving event builds excitement – Scheduled for December, this supply cut is driving optimistic bets.
3. Price action shows a tug-of-war – Traders are watching closely, with a potential rise to $720 if the $375 support level holds.
4. Strong community opinions – Supporters push back against skeptics, emphasizing long-term belief in the project.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Buying Signals Confidence

@hayekfritzl says, “Bittensor is web 4.0... Silicon Valley’s circling”
– 30.3K followers · 197K impressions · Oct 3, 2025
What this means: Digital Currency Group invested $10 million, and Grayscale’s TAO Trust manages $10.8 million in assets. Public companies like TAO Synergies hold over 54,000 TAO tokens (worth about $16 million), showing growing interest from serious investors, similar to how MicroStrategy invested heavily in Bitcoin.

2. Mixed Feelings About the Halving

@getmasafi notes, “Scarcity will kick in... but first halving unknowns remain”
– 221K followers · 612K impressions · July 31, 2025
What this means: On December 12, 2025, the daily supply of TAO will be cut in half—from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. This is expected to create scarcity, similar to Bitcoin’s halving events. However, developer Arrash Yasavolian cautions that the exact impact is uncertain (Yahoo Finance).

3. Watching for a Technical Breakout

@CryptoPatel says, “$720 target if $375 becomes support”
– 459K followers · 2.1M impressions · Nov 9, 2025
What this means: TAO recently broke through a resistance level it hadn’t surpassed in two years, at $375. Technical indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) suggest bullish momentum. But if the price falls below $360, it could drop as much as 30% to $284 (CryptoFrontNews).

4. Community Stands Firm

@hayekfritzl declares, “Your weak hands stink... $500T market can absorb $32M/month emissions”
– 30.3K followers · 284K impressions · Oct 1, 2025
What this means: Despite debates about the sustainability of Bittensor’s subnet (a smaller network within the blockchain), dedicated supporters believe its decentralized AI technology could challenge major tech companies. Critics point out the token has dropped 45% since its peak in April 2024.

Conclusion

The overall outlook on TAO is optimistic but cautious. Institutional investments and the upcoming halving event are positive signs, but risks remain from technical challenges and broader market conditions. Keep an eye on the $375 support level and how the halving plays out on December 12. As one trader put it: “TAO either eats the AI world or becomes its appetizer.”

What is the latest news about TAO?

Bittensor is showing signs of a technical breakout and preparing for its upcoming halving event, all while the market shows mixed signals. Here’s what you need to know:

1. Price Breaks Above $400 (November 10, 2025) – TAO pushed past the $400 resistance level, suggesting positive momentum ahead of the December halving.
2. Halving Countdown Starts (November 9, 2025) – The first halving in December will cut daily TAO emissions by half, testing the network’s long-term strength.
3. Institutional Investors Step In (November 10, 2025) – Nasdaq-listed TAO Synergies and Grayscale’s AI Index Fund have taken significant positions in TAO.

Deep Dive

1. Price Breaks Above $400 (November 10, 2025)

What happened:
TAO recently broke out from a downward trend and reclaimed the $400 level, bouncing back from $350—a key support level since August. Although some technical indicators still suggest caution, the short-term moving averages are close to signaling a positive trend. Experts believe if this breakout holds, TAO could reach $460 (a 16% increase) or even $540 (a 37% increase). However, the market remains volatile, with $360 as an important support level.

Why it matters:
This price movement shows growing optimism among traders, likely due to the expected reduction in TAO supply after the halving and increased interest from big investors. But if TAO falls below $400 again, the price could drop further. (Crypto.news)

2. Halving Countdown Starts (November 9, 2025)

What happened:
On December 12, Bittensor will experience its first halving event, cutting daily TAO emissions from 7,200 to 3,600. This change introduces a deflationary aspect to the network, meaning fewer new coins will be created daily. Similar halving events in other cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, have often led to price increases. However, Bittensor needs to balance this with keeping validators motivated and supporting growth in its network subnets.

Why it matters:
The halving could increase demand by making TAO scarcer, but there are risks. Miners might sell their coins if rewards drop, and the network needs to grow its subnets to keep the system healthy. Key indicators to watch include how many users stake their TAO and how much revenue subnets generate. (Cryptofrontnews)

3. Institutional Investors Step In (November 10, 2025)

What happened:
TAO Synergies, a company listed on Nasdaq, holds over 42,000 TAO tokens (worth about $15 million), and Grayscale’s Decentralized AI Fund has allocated 41% of its portfolio to TAO. These moves show growing confidence from large investors in Bittensor’s decentralized AI technology, similar to how MicroStrategy invested heavily in Bitcoin.

Why it matters:
Big investors buying TAO can improve liquidity and influence how the network is governed. However, it also means a large portion of TAO is held by a few players, which could affect price stability. Individual investors should watch whether these institutions keep buying after the halving or start selling to take profits. (KoinSaati)

Conclusion

Bittensor’s future price depends on maintaining positive technical momentum, managing the effects of the halving, and keeping institutional investors interested. While factors like reduced supply and AI adoption are positive signs, price swings near key resistance levels and miner behavior after the halving will likely shape short-term trends.

Will TAO’s halving spark a rally like Bitcoin’s past events, or will the growth of its network subnets drive the next phase?

What is expected in the development of TAO?

Bittensor’s roadmap highlights key developments in token supply, network expansion, and growing institutional interest.

1. First Halving (December 12, 2025) – Daily TAO token issuance will be cut in half, dropping from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens.
2. Subnet SDK Upgrades (Q1 2026) – Improved tools for building and managing AI-focused sub-networks.
3. EVM Compatibility Improvements (2026) – Making Bittensor compatible with Ethereum-based blockchains for easier integration.
4. Institutional Products Expansion (Ongoing) – Launching investment products like exchange-traded products (ETPs), trusts, and treasury management strategies.

In-Depth Look

1. First Halving (December 12, 2025)

What’s Happening?
Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO tokens created each day by 50%, from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, designed to slow down token supply growth as the total supply approaches 10.5 million TAO, which is half of the maximum 21 million tokens.

Why It Matters

• Positive Impact: With fewer new tokens entering the market, if demand stays steady or grows, this could support higher token prices over time. Bitcoin’s history shows that halving events often lead to price increases.
• Potential Challenges: Miners who validate transactions might earn less, which could reduce their motivation to participate if token prices don’t rise enough to compensate.

2. Subnet SDK Upgrades (Q1 2026)

What’s Happening?
The Subnet Software Development Kit (SDK), first released in 2025, will get new features to make it easier for developers to create and manage specialized AI sub-networks. These tools will support custom incentives and governance, helping target specific AI applications like financial forecasting or image recognition.

Why It Matters

• Positive Impact: Easier subnet creation can lead to more diverse AI services on Bittensor, attracting developers and expanding use cases.
• Potential Challenges: If too many low-quality subnets appear, it could weaken the overall value of TAO tokens by diluting network quality.

3. EVM Compatibility Improvements (2026)

What’s Happening?
Bittensor plans to enhance compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which means AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) on Bittensor can work seamlessly with Ethereum and other EVM-based blockchains like Polygon.

Why It Matters

• Positive Impact: This cross-chain compatibility could bring in decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and more developers, expanding Bittensor’s ecosystem.
• Neutral Considerations: The success depends on how well Ethereum and other chains handle scalability and transaction fees.

4. Institutional Products Expansion (Ongoing)

What’s Happening?
Following the launch of exchange-traded products (ETPs) like Safello’s TAO ETP in Europe, Bittensor is working on more regulated investment options. Institutional interest is growing, as seen with Grayscale’s TAO Trust managing $10.8 million and corporate treasuries holding significant TAO assets.

Why It Matters

• Positive Impact: Institutional investments can reduce price volatility and improve liquidity for TAO tokens.
• Potential Challenges: Regulatory hurdles around AI-related tokens could slow down product approvals.

Conclusion

Bittensor’s roadmap carefully balances reducing token supply growth with expanding its AI network and attracting institutional investors. The upcoming halving is a key event that will influence miner incentives and the health of AI subnets, shaping the future of TAO.

The big question remains: Can Bittensor’s approach to limiting supply and fostering AI innovation overcome regulatory and competitive challenges in the decentralized AI space?

What updates are there in the TAO code base?

Bittensor’s software has been upgraded to improve decentralization, AI integration, and network security.

1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (Feb 2025) – Changed rewards to be based on performance and subnet-specific staking.
2. Subnet SDK Launch (2025) – Made building AI subnets faster and easier with modular development tools.
3. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025) – Allowed AI apps to work across multiple blockchain platforms like Ethereum.

Deep Dive

1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (Feb 2025)

Overview:
The Dynamic TAO (dTAO) update replaced fixed token emissions with rewards based on how well each subnet performs. Staking now focuses on supporting specific subnets rather than the network as a whole.

Technical Details:
This update uses adaptive algorithms to distribute TAO tokens based on subnet metrics such as computing power and accuracy of AI models. Validators stake tokens on subnets they believe add the most value, creating a competitive environment for AI services.

What this means:
This is positive for TAO holders because it encourages the development of higher-quality AI models, which could lead to wider adoption. Stakers can now choose to support specialized subnets like natural language processing or image recognition. (Source)

2. Subnet SDK Launch (2025)

Overview:
A new software development kit (SDK) helps developers build AI subnets more quickly, cutting deployment time from weeks to days.

Technical Details:
The SDK includes ready-made modules for training AI models, validating results, and distributing rewards. It connects seamlessly with Bittensor’s main network to automatically calculate token emissions and supports custom reward systems.

What this means:
This lowers the barrier for AI developers, speeding up growth in the Bittensor ecosystem. Successful projects like Sportstensor (focused on sports predictions) and Targon Compute (generating $10.4 million annually) have used this toolkit. (Source)

3. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025)

Overview:
Bittensor now fully supports the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing AI models to run on popular blockchain platforms like Ethereum and Polygon.

Technical Details:
Smart contracts on these blockchains can directly interact with Bittensor subnets, enabling hybrid decentralized apps (dApps). For example, a decentralized finance (DeFi) app on Ethereum can use Bittensor’s AI subnet for fraud detection.

What this means:
This update broadens TAO’s use cases beyond its own blockchain, which is generally positive. However, it also means some reliance on external blockchain ecosystems. Liquidity has improved thanks to integration with Uniswap V3. (Source)

Conclusion

Bittensor’s ongoing software improvements focus on scaling decentralized AI through specialized subnets that add real value to the network. The upcoming halving in December 2025, which will reduce daily TAO emissions to 3,600, will test how well these upgrades perform when rewards become scarcer. The key question is how subnet diversity will help balance TAO’s deflationary supply with sustainable growth.