Why did the price of TAO fall?

Bittensor (TAO) dropped 8.27% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 3.18%. This decline is part of a broader selloff in AI-related tokens and reflects technical weaknesses in the market.

1. SoftBank’s Sale of NVIDIA Shares Triggers AI Token Selloff – Investors are less willing to take risks on AI-linked assets.
2. Technical Breakdown – TAO’s price fell below important moving averages, indicating downward momentum.
3. Market Uncertainty – The Crypto Fear Index is low (26/100), and investors are shifting away from altcoins, reducing speculative buying.

Deep Dive

1. AI Sector Selloff (Negative Impact)

Overview: On November 11, SoftBank sold its $5.83 billion stake in NVIDIA to fund investments in OpenAI. This move caused Bittensor (TAO) to drop 3.79%, along with other AI tokens like Internet Computer, which fell 8.69% (source).

What this means: This sale increased doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure projects, especially decentralized ones like Bittensor competing against large centralized companies. TAO’s trading volume also dropped 9% to $236.5 million, showing less buying interest.

What to watch: Whether OpenAI’s $40 billion fundraising effort will pull more investment away from crypto-based AI projects.

2. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview: TAO’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $382 and 30-day SMA of $413. The MACD indicator shows accelerating bearish momentum, and the RSI at 43 indicates no immediate sign of being oversold.

What this means: Traders are selling after TAO lost support at $375, which is now acting as resistance. If selling continues, the price could test the $345–$350 range based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

What to watch: A price recovery above $375 could stabilize TAO, while a drop below $345 might lead to further sell-offs.

Conclusion

Bittensor’s recent price drop is driven by challenges specific to the AI sector and technical weakness. However, the upcoming halving event in December, which will reduce supply by 50%, could provide positive momentum. Key points to monitor: Can TAO maintain support around $350 despite declining AI enthusiasm? Will the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $374 help the price rebound? Keep an eye on subnet adoption rates and institutional buying for signs of renewed interest.

What could affect the price of TAO?

Bittensor’s price is caught between growing interest in AI and the usual ups and downs of the crypto market.

1. Halving in 70 Days (Positive Sign)
   The daily supply of new TAO coins will be cut in half, reducing selling pressure.
2. Institutional Holdings (Mixed Impact)
   Public companies own over $26 million in TAO, but their large stakes could cause price swings.
3. Growing Subnet Use (Positive Sign)
   Leading subnets generate over $20 million a year, increasing demand for TAO.

In-Depth Look

1. Halving Explained (Why It’s Good News)

What’s Happening:
On December 12, 2025, Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO coins created daily from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, which create scarcity by limiting supply. However, unlike Bitcoin, miners on Bittensor compete based on the quality of their AI models, not just computing power.

Why It Matters:
With fewer new coins entering the market, miners will sell less — currently, they sell about $2.6 million worth of TAO each month. If demand from big investors stays strong, this could push prices higher. Bitcoin’s past halvings have led to price increases of 50-120%. Since TAO has a smaller market cap ($3.7 billion), its price might be more volatile.

2. Institutional Holdings (A Double-Edged Sword)

What’s Happening:
Companies listed on Nasdaq, like TAO Synergies and xTAO, hold about 71,437 TAO tokens, worth roughly $25.8 million, according to The Defiant. These holders control 82% of the staking rewards, giving them significant influence over network decisions.

Why It Matters:
While their buying supports the price in the short term, their large stakes could lead to big sell-offs that cause price drops. For example, if they sold just 10% of their holdings, it would create $37 million in trading volume — about 15% of TAO’s daily trading.

3. Subnet Growth (Driving Real Demand)

What’s Happening:
Active subnets like Targon Compute, which brings in $10.4 million annually, and Ridges, known for 73% AI accuracy, show that Bittensor’s decentralized AI is gaining traction. Fees from registering these subnets also burn TAO tokens, helping reduce supply.

Why It Matters:
This real-world use of TAO could increase demand beyond just speculation. If subnet revenues double by 2026, TAO’s $3.7 billion market cap would be valued at 18 times sales — cheaper than Nvidia’s 25 times sales ratio.

Conclusion

The upcoming halving and growing subnet activity suggest strong potential for TAO’s price to rise. However, Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market (59.4%) and the concentration of validator power could cause price swings. Watch the $370 support level closely — if it breaks, the price might move up to $488 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level). The big question remains: Can Bittensor outperform AI giants by monetizing open-source AI models?

What are people saying about TAO?

The Bittensor (TAO) community is divided between optimism and caution. Big investors are buying more TAO, while traders watch important price levels closely. Here’s what’s happening now:

1. Experts promote TAO’s potential to disrupt a $500 trillion market 🚀
2. Price struggles to break $380 resistance amid downward pressure 🐻
3. Institutions quietly accumulating TAO ahead of the upcoming halving 🏦

In-Depth Look

1. @hayekfritzl: “Bittensor’s trillion-dollar potential” — Positive outlook

“Bittensor is shaking up a $500 trillion market… its fundamentals are far ahead of its price.”
– @hayekfritzl (30.3K followers · Oct 6, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This optimistic view is based on Bittensor’s decentralized AI technology potentially growing faster than traditional tech companies. The “$500 trillion market” likely refers to AI’s expected economic impact by 2030, according to PwC. If Bittensor gains adoption, TAO could see significant price growth.

2. @johnmorganFL: “TAO stuck below 20-day SMA” — Cautious outlook

“Until TAO breaks above $380 clearly, expect sideways or downward price movement.”
– @johnmorganFL (35.1K followers · Jul 9, 2025)
View original post
What this means: TAO’s price is about 8% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $351. The $380 price level has acted as a strong barrier, rejecting price increases three times since July. This suggests selling pressure remains until more buying interest returns.

3. xTAO: Institutional buying reaches $16 million — Positive sign

A public company named xTAO has purchased 41,538 TAO tokens (worth $16 million) by July 2025. They are staking these tokens to earn about 10% annual returns while helping secure the network.
What this means: This shows strong confidence from institutional investors, especially with Bittensor’s first halving (which cuts the supply in half) scheduled for December 2025. Staking reduces the number of tokens available for sale, which could help support the price.

Conclusion

Opinions on Bittensor are mixed. On one hand, developers and experts highlight its potential to revolutionize AI markets. On the other, traders point to weak price momentum below $380. Keep an eye on the BTC/TAO ratio, currently around 0.32, which is near recent lows. This ratio can indicate whether TAO is starting to move independently from Bitcoin. The key question: will institutional buying outweigh retail selling before the halving event?

What is the latest news about TAO?

Bittensor is navigating challenges in the AI sector and price swings as its halving event approaches. Here’s a quick update:

1. SoftBank’s AI Strategy Change (Nov 11, 2025) – TAO dropped 3.8% after SoftBank sold its NVIDIA shares to invest $40 billion in OpenAI.
2. Price Fluctuations (Nov 11, 2025) – TAO is experiencing renewed selling pressure amid overall market uncertainty.
3. Halving Event Momentum (Nov 9, 2025) – Bittensor’s first halving in December could reduce supply, but market sentiment remains mixed.

In-Depth Look

1. SoftBank’s AI Strategy Change (Nov 11, 2025)

What happened:
SoftBank sold its entire $5.83 billion stake in NVIDIA to focus on investing in OpenAI. This move caused a drop in AI-related tokens like TAO, which fell nearly 3.8%. The shift shows Wall Street’s doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure and a preference for centralized AI companies.

What this means for TAO:
In the short term, this is a negative sign as money moves away from AI infrastructure projects, putting pressure on TAO’s price. However, Bittensor’s decentralized approach could become more attractive over time if OpenAI’s closed-source model faces criticism. (Yahoo Finance)

2. Price Fluctuations (Nov 11, 2025)

What happened:
TAO struggled to stay above $400, dropping nearly 8% over the week to $363. Analysts see resistance between $375 and $410, with technical indicators showing weakening momentum. About $178,000 in liquidations suggest traders are uncertain.

What this means for TAO:
Without strong buying support, TAO may hover between $350 and $375. If it falls below $350, it could revisit lows near $309 from October. On the other hand, breaking above $410 might spark renewed interest ahead of the halving.

3. Halving Event Momentum (Dec 12, 2025)

What’s happening:
Bittensor’s first halving will cut daily TAO rewards from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. This event has attracted attention from institutional players, with Grayscale filing for a TAO Trust and Deutsche Digital Assets launching an exchange-traded product (ETP).

What this means:
This is generally positive over the long term because reducing supply can increase scarcity. However, selling pressure from miners and concerns about network sustainability remain risks. Past halvings in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin show that price gains after such events depend heavily on overall market conditions.

Summary

Bittensor faces short-term challenges from shifts in the AI industry and technical resistance levels. Still, upcoming events like the halving and growing institutional interest provide potential upside. The key question is whether the appeal of decentralized AI will outweigh profit-taking as the halving approaches.

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What is expected in the development of TAO?

Bittensor’s roadmap centers on upgrading its protocol and growing its ecosystem.

1. First Halving Event (December 12, 2025) – Daily TAO token issuance will be cut in half, dropping to 3,600 tokens.
2. Subnet Deregulation (Ongoing) – Simplifying subnet management to encourage innovation.
3. EVM Compatibility (2025) – Enabling AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) to work across multiple blockchain platforms.
4. Institutional Access Expansion (Q4 2025) – Increasing availability of investment products and custody services for institutions.

Deep Dive

1. First Halving Event (December 12, 2025)

Overview:
Bittensor will reduce the daily release of TAO tokens from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to limiting supply, triggered when total TAO supply reaches about 10.5 million tokens (half of the 21 million cap).

What this means:
This reduction in supply could push TAO’s price higher if demand stays steady, especially since institutions are accumulating tokens (for example, TAO Synergies held 42,111 TAO as of August 2025). However, miners who earn TAO might see lower profits, which could temporarily reduce their participation in the network (KoinSaati).

2. Subnet Deregulation (Ongoing)

Overview:
Bittensor is removing centralized control over subnets—specialized networks that handle AI tasks—and shifting governance to the community. New tools like the Subnet SDK make it easier to create these subnets.

What this means:
This change could help the number of subnets grow faster (there were 128 active as of September 2025), which is positive for TAO. But it also risks splitting the network into smaller groups, and validators might focus on the most profitable subnets, possibly leaving smaller projects behind.

3. EVM Compatibility (2025)

Overview:
Bittensor plans to support the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing AI models and dApps to run on multiple blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.

What this means:
This is good news for TAO because it could attract developers from bigger blockchain communities, increasing the network’s usefulness. Still, technical challenges like syncing subnets across chains might slow down this progress (Yahoo Finance).

4. Institutional Access Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Following the launch of exchange-traded products (ETPs) such as Safello’s staked TAO ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange, Bittensor is working to expand partnerships with institutions. This includes integrating custody services with companies like BitGo and Crypto.com.

What this means:
More regulated investment options can bring in a wider range of investors, which is positive for TAO. However, if institutions control too much of the staking rewards, it could lead to centralization concerns (Coinspeaker).

Conclusion

Bittensor’s roadmap carefully balances reducing token supply with growing its ecosystem through subnets and cross-chain compatibility. The upcoming halving and increased institutional involvement are key factors to watch. The big question is whether the growth in subnet diversity will outweigh any inflation concerns after the halving.

What updates are there in the TAO code base?

Bittensor’s recent software updates focus on improving security, managing subnet networks, and making the overall system more scalable.

1. Subnet Registration Overhaul (October 2025) – Simplified how new subnetworks join, rewarding those that perform well.
2. Dynamic TAO (dTAO) Upgrade (February 2025) – Changed how tokens are distributed to reward subnet productivity.
3. Uniswap V3 Integration (July 2025) – Improved staking liquidity using advanced pool technology.

Deep Dive

1. Subnet Registration Overhaul (October 2025)

Overview: Bittensor now limits the number of subnets to 128. Underperforming subnets are replaced by new ones after a 4-month grace period. Tokens (TAO) from removed subnets are given to active participants.
What this means: This is positive for TAO holders because it encourages high-quality subnetworks, reduces unnecessary network clutter, and aligns rewards with actual usefulness. (Source)

2. Dynamic TAO (dTAO) Upgrade (February 2025)

Overview: Instead of fixed token rewards, Bittensor now adjusts token distribution based on how well each subnet performs, changing staking weights dynamically.
What this means: This change is neutral for TAO in the short term but positive over time, as it links token rewards to real-world AI performance, similar to how Bitcoin’s limited supply creates value. (Source)

3. Uniswap V3 Integration (July 2025)

Overview: Bittensor integrated Uniswap V3’s concentrated liquidity pools to reduce trading slippage for TAO stakers and validators.
What this means: This is good news for TAO because it makes staking more efficient and attractive, especially for institutional investors looking for better returns. (Source)

Conclusion

Bittensor’s updates focus on improving the quality of decentralized AI networks and making token liquidity more efficient. Upcoming plans for EVM compatibility in 2026 could further boost cross-chain AI collaboration and expand the ecosystem’s potential.