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What could affect the price of TAO?

Bittensor is navigating a volatile AI-driven market with several important events coming up.

  1. Halving (Dec 12, 2025) – The daily supply of TAO coins will be cut in half, reducing the number of new coins entering the market.
  2. Institutional Interest – Public companies currently hold over 54,000 TAO, showing confidence in the long-term potential.
  3. Technical Patterns – A specific chart pattern suggests the price might break out soon.

Deep Dive

1. Halving Dynamics (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening:
On December 12, 2025, Bittensor will undergo its first “halving,” meaning the daily amount of new TAO coins created will drop from 7,200 to 3,600. This is similar to Bitcoin’s halving events, which have historically made the coin scarcer and often led to price increases.

Why it matters:
With fewer new coins available, TAO could become more valuable if demand stays strong, especially as AI technology adoption grows. However, miners might sell more coins before the halving to make up for lower future rewards, which could cause short-term price swings (KoinSaati).

2. Institutional Demand vs. Market Sentiment (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening:
Companies like xTAO and TAO Synergies hold more than 54,000 TAO (worth about $16 million), and Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust has raised $10.8 million. Despite this, the overall crypto market is experiencing “extreme fear” (Fear & Greed Index at 16/100), and Bitcoin’s dominance at nearly 59% is limiting interest in alternative coins like TAO.

Why it matters:
Institutional buying helps support the price, but broader market caution and TAO’s recent 41% monthly drop show skepticism. If the market shifts toward “altcoin season” or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, demand for TAO could pick up again (xTAO).

3. Technical & On-Chain Signals (Short-Term Neutral to Bearish)

What’s happening:
TAO is currently trading below important moving averages (like the 200-day EMA at $365), but a falling wedge chart pattern suggests a possible breakout toward $440. Momentum indicators like RSI (33) and MACD (-0.33) show weak buying strength, and recent data shows $178,000 in liquidations over 24 hours.

Why it matters:
The price is likely to stay between $280 and $320 until a strong positive signal appears. If TAO closes above $366 (the 30-day EMA), it could signal a trend reversal. But if it falls below $255, a 30% price drop might follow (Coinglass).

Conclusion

TAO’s future depends on how the halving’s reduced supply and institutional support balance against broader market challenges. Keep an eye on the $366 resistance level and the December 12 halving event to see if Bittensor’s AI-driven story can overcome the current cautious mood in crypto.


What are people saying about TAO?

Bittensor’s TAO token is generating buzz with its upcoming halving event, growing interest from big investors, and a mix of technical challenges and excitement about AI. Here’s the quick summary:

  1. Halving Hype – The first TAO halving on December 12 is creating talk about scarcity.
  2. Institutional Interest – Groups like xTAO, DCG, and Grayscale are investing heavily, calling TAO "AI’s Bitcoin."
  3. ETF Boost – Europe’s first staked TAO exchange-traded product (ETP) sparked a 20% price jump.
  4. Price Debate – Traders are split between a $400 resistance level and a potential breakout above $500.

In-Depth Look

1. @getmasafi: Halving Sparks Bullish Sentiment

“Scarcity will kick in. Value appreciation will likely follow.”
– @getmasafi (221K followers · 6299 likes · July 31, 2025)
View original post
What this means: The halving on December 12 will cut daily TAO emissions in half (from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO), similar to Bitcoin’s approach to creating scarcity and boosting value. Additional liquidity from Solana bridges and institutional validators like Yuma Group supports this positive outlook.

2. @hayekai: Strong Fundamentals and Price Targets

“Bittensor fundamentally has never been stronger… $600–$1,150 this year.”
– @hayekai (30K followers · 33.6K likes · October 9, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Optimism is based on TAO’s leadership in AI infrastructure and overall market liquidity. Some critics worry about inflation in subnet tokens, but TAO’s price has lagged behind strong gains in related tokens like Sundae, which rose 900% in October.

3. xTAO: Institutional Investment Brings Mixed Signals

“xTAO holds 41,538 TAO ($16M)… building Bittensor validators.”
– xTAO press release (July 30, 2025)
Read more
What this means: Institutional backing from firms like DCG and Grayscale adds credibility to TAO. However, large concentrated holdings could lead to centralization, which goes against Bittensor’s goal of a decentralized network.

4. CoinMarketCap: Technical Analysis Points to Short-Term Challenges

“Rejected at $434… risks drop to $309 if $376 support breaks.”
– CoinMarketCap Analysis (June 4, 2025)
View analysis
What this means: In the short term, TAO faces selling pressure around key moving averages, and momentum indicators suggest weakening strength. Still, long-term investors see price dips as buying opportunities ahead of the halving.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for TAO is positive but volatile. The upcoming halving, innovation in subnet tokens, and new TradFi products like Europe’s STAO ETP help balance out technical resistance and selling pressure. Keep an eye on the December 12 halving and adoption of subnet tokens like Sportstensor and Sundae. TAO’s move above $500 depends on Bitcoin’s stability and success in AI applications.

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What is the latest news about TAO?

Bittensor faces a mix of regulatory changes and technical challenges as its halving event approaches.

  1. SEC Rule Updates (December 2, 2025) – New rules may make it easier for crypto companies like Bittensor to go public, which could be good for TAO.
  2. Market Pressure Before Halving (December 1, 2025) – Despite being a top AI token, TAO’s market value dropped, and investors are cautious ahead of the halving that will cut token rewards in half.
  3. Signs of Technical Recovery (November 28, 2025) – Chart patterns suggest TAO might bounce back if it breaks above $330.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Rule Updates (December 2, 2025)

What’s happening: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to update rules for initial public offerings (IPOs). They’re introducing an “innovation exemption” aimed at helping crypto companies like Bittensor list on public markets more easily starting in January 2026.

Why it matters: This change could attract more institutional investors to TAO by reducing regulatory hurdles. However, details are still unclear, so it’s uncertain how quickly or smoothly these changes will take effect. (BlockBeats)

2. Market Pressure Before Halving (December 1, 2025)

What’s happening: Bittensor’s AI token TAO lost about $1.5 billion in market value (a 7.3% drop) during a broader crypto market downturn. Even though TAO is a leading AI token, investors have been hesitant to buy ahead of the halving on December 12, which will reduce daily token emissions by 50%, from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO.

Why it matters: The halving is designed to reduce supply, which could help stabilize or increase prices over time. But in the short term, investors remain cautious. Smaller AI tokens have done better recently, indicating some money is moving away from bigger players like TAO. (Yahoo Finance)

3. Signs of Technical Recovery (November 28, 2025)

What’s happening: TAO’s price dropped 47% over the past 30 days, forming a “falling wedge” pattern on the charts—a technical sign that a price rebound might be coming. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks buying and selling pressure, shows accumulation between $280 and $300. Analysts predict a possible 36% price increase to $410 if TAO can break above the $330 resistance level.

Why it matters: This pattern suggests a chance for TAO to recover. But if the price falls below $280, it could drop further to around $200. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, meaning the token isn’t oversold yet, so some price swings are expected. (CCN)

Conclusion

Bittensor is at a crossroads, balancing hopeful regulatory changes with market uncertainty ahead of its halving event. The SEC’s new rules and the upcoming emissions cut could attract more serious investors, but recent price drops show skepticism remains. The big question is whether the December halving will help TAO become a valuable “digital AI commodity” or if low trading volume will increase the risk of further price declines.


What is expected in the development of TAO?

Bittensor’s roadmap highlights key upgrades to its protocol, growth of its ecosystem, and important upcoming network events.

  1. Halving Event (December 12, 2025) – The daily issuance of TAO tokens will be cut in half, dropping from 7,200 to 3,600.
  2. Subnet SDK Expansion (2026) – Improved tools will make it easier for developers to create AI services.
  3. EVM Compatibility Rollout (Ongoing) – Bittensor is working to make its network compatible with Ethereum, allowing AI models to work across different blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. Halving Event (December 12, 2025)

What is it?
Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO tokens created each day by 50%. This is similar to Bitcoin’s approach to limiting supply and happens every four years as part of the protocol’s design.

Why it matters:

2. Subnet SDK Expansion (2026)

What is it?
The Subnet Software Development Kit (SDK) helps developers build specialized AI networks within Bittensor. The upcoming upgrades will make it easier to create AI applications, such as sports predictions or generating synthetic data.

Why it matters:

3. EVM Compatibility Rollout (Ongoing)

What is it?
Bittensor is making its network compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), the technology behind Ethereum’s smart contracts. This means AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) can work across both Bittensor and Ethereum blockchains.

Why it matters:

Conclusion

Bittensor’s near future depends on the impact of the halving event reducing token supply and the growth of AI subnets driving demand. Over the longer term, making the network compatible with Ethereum and improving developer tools aim to establish TAO as a key player in decentralized AI. With institutional participants like xTAO accumulating tokens, the question remains: will Bittensor live up to its reputation as the “Bitcoin of AI” through 2026?


What updates are there in the TAO code base?

Bittensor’s latest updates focus on improving scalability, enabling cross-chain compatibility, and changing how rewards are given to encourage better network performance.

  1. First Halving Scheduled (December 12, 2025) – Daily TAO rewards will be cut in half, dropping from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO.
  2. EVM Compatibility Launch (2025) – Bittensor will support Ethereum-based smart contracts, allowing AI models to work across multiple blockchains.
  3. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025) – Rewards will now depend on how well each subnet performs, based on community voting.

Deep Dive

1. First Halving Scheduled (December 12, 2025)

What’s happening: Bittensor will reduce the number of new TAO tokens created each day by 50%, similar to Bitcoin’s halving events. This happens every four years and is designed to make TAO more scarce over time.

Node operators (those who help run the network) need to update their software to keep things running smoothly.

Why it matters: With fewer new tokens entering the market, the value of TAO could increase if demand stays strong. This also encourages miners and validators to focus on running higher-quality parts of the network to earn rewards.
(KoinSaati)

2. EVM Compatibility Launch (2025)

What’s happening: Bittensor will become compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), the technology behind Ethereum smart contracts. This means AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) can work seamlessly across Ethereum, Polygon, and Bittensor.

Developers have adapted Bittensor’s system to support Solidity, the programming language used for Ethereum smart contracts.

Why it matters: This opens up Bittensor to a larger community of developers and users, making it easier to connect with other blockchain projects and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Users will benefit from AI tools that work across different blockchains.
(KoinSaati)

3. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025)

What’s happening: Instead of fixed rewards, TAO payouts will now depend on how well each subnet performs. This is measured by factors like uptime, computing power, and agreement among validators, with the community voting on the results.

Staking (locking up tokens to support the network) will now require choosing specific subnets to support.

Why it matters: This change encourages subnet operators to improve their performance but adds some complexity, especially for smaller participants. Over time, it could lead to more specialized AI services, like language models or image generation, becoming more prominent.
(KoinSaati)

Conclusion

Bittensor is focusing on steady growth by making TAO more scarce, enabling cross-chain compatibility, and rewarding quality work on the network. With the halving coming soon, it will be interesting to see how miners adjust to earning fewer tokens while keeping the network strong.


When is TAO halving?

Bittensor (TAO) is set to undergo a halving event on December 10, 2025 (UTC), according to an event calendar announcement about TAO’s halving on that date (event calendar).

  1. Recent updates mention the halving is less than two weeks away (CMC post).
  2. The halving will cut new TAO issuance by 50%, affecting miner rewards and the amount of TAO available in circulation.
  3. For more information, check out Bittensor on CoinMarketCap (Bittensor page).

Deep Dive

1. Date Confirmation

The halving is confirmed for December 10, 2025 (UTC), based on the event calendar update and recent commentary placing the emissions cut within two weeks (event calendar; CMC post).

What this means: If you’re planning to adjust your exposure based on changes in TAO issuance, the timing is coming up soon. Keep an eye on announcements from the network or miners, as well as any shifts in liquidity around this date.

2. How Halving Works and Its Effects

A “halving” means the rate at which new TAO coins are created is cut roughly in half. This slows down the supply growth of TAO. While this can reduce the number of new coins entering the market (potentially making TAO scarcer), it also lowers the rewards miners receive, which can affect their incentives and how much they sell.

What this means: Watch for signs of demand like network usage, transaction fees, and trading volumes, along with how miners act. If demand stays strong despite fewer new coins, scarcity could boost TAO’s value. If not, market liquidity and selling pressure might dominate in the short term.

3. About Bittensor (TAO)

Bittensor (TAO) is a decentralized marketplace for artificial intelligence where miners contribute AI models, computing power, and intelligence in exchange for on-chain rewards (Bittensor page). Recent reports have noted TAO’s importance among AI-related tokens, even during a turbulent market (market update).

What this means: The halving is just one factor influencing TAO’s future. More important are fundamentals like how widely the network is used and real-world adoption, which will likely have a bigger impact after the halving than the issuance change alone.

Conclusion

TAO’s halving on December 10, 2025 (UTC) will reduce new coin issuance and could tighten supply. The overall effect depends on demand and miner behavior around that time. A practical strategy is to monitor network activity, liquidity on major exchanges, and any updates from miners or the Bittensor foundation as the date approaches.


Why did the price of TAO go up?

Bittensor (TAO) increased by 3.9% in the last 24 hours, bouncing back from a 43% drop over the past 30 days. This rise was driven by technical signals showing the coin was oversold, positive regulatory developments for AI and cryptocurrency, and targeted demand for certain altcoins.

  1. Technical bounce from oversold levels: Indicators suggested TAO was undervalued, prompting buying.
  2. SEC’s crypto-friendly approach: New rules aim to encourage innovation in the crypto space.
  3. Shift in AI sector interest: Investors are moving into select altcoins like TAO.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: TAO’s 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 25.28, indicating it was heavily oversold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed signs of stabilizing. Prices bounced from a support level of $255 up to about $278 but remain below a key resistance point at $311 (based on Fibonacci retracement levels).

What this means: Short-term traders likely took advantage of the oversold condition to buy TAO. However, the coin is still in a longer-term downward trend, with the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $340 acting as a significant barrier.

What to watch: If TAO can consistently close above $280, it might indicate a shift in momentum.

2. Regulatory Catalyst (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On December 2, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced plans to update IPO regulations and introduce an “innovation exemption” for cryptocurrency companies, effective January 2026 (BlockBeats).

What this means: As a decentralized AI protocol, Bittensor could benefit from these regulatory changes, which aim to reduce obstacles for crypto innovation. This aligns with recent institutional interest, such as xTAO’s $16 million TAO treasury purchase in July 2025.

3. AI Sector Sentiment Shift (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Although the AI-focused crypto sector dropped 7.3% last week, TAO performed better due to its strong market position and an upcoming halving event in December.

What this means: Investors may be shifting funds into TAO as a reliable “blue-chip” AI token ahead of the halving, which will cut daily token issuance from 7,200 TAO to 3,600. However, overall market fear remains high (Crypto Market Fear & Greed Index at 16/100), limiting potential gains.

Conclusion

TAO’s recent 24-hour gain reflects a combination of technical recovery and cautious optimism about AI and regulatory developments. Still, broader market challenges like Bitcoin’s dominance at 59% and outflows from altcoins continue to weigh on performance.

Key point to watch: Will TAO maintain support above $280 as it approaches its halving around December 12?