Why did the price of VIRTUAL fall?

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) dropped 4.82% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.19%. The main reasons for this decline are a sharp drop in user activity, weakness across AI-related tokens, and negative technical indicators.

1. User Drop-Off – Active wallets have fallen 90% since Q3 2025, from 10,000 to about 1,500, reducing the platform’s usefulness.
2. AI Token Weakness – After NVIDIA’s recent rally, investors took profits, causing AI tokens to lose value; the crypto AI sector’s market cap fell 3% this week.
3. Technical Signals – The price fell below a key support level ($0.91), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the token is oversold.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Sharp Decline in User Engagement (Negative Impact)

Summary: Virtuals Protocol’s daily active users have dropped sharply to between 1,000 and 1,500 wallets, down from 10,000 in Q3 2025 (Cointribune). This trend matches a broader 22.4% decline in users of SocialFi and gaming decentralized apps.

What this means: Fewer active users suggest less demand for VIRTUAL’s AI agent services. When user activity drops, token utility usually decreases, leading to more selling by holders who are no longer engaged. The platform’s shift toward institutional DeFi services, like stablecoin infrastructure, hasn’t made up for the loss of retail users.

What to watch: Look for Q4 user data expected in late October. If low activity continues, it could lead to further selling and risk reduction.

2. Profit-Taking in AI Tokens (Mixed Impact)

Summary: The crypto AI sector’s market value fell 3% this week after NVIDIA’s stock cooled off following its October 2 rally. VIRTUAL’s price has dropped 59% over the past 90 days, a steeper decline than peers like FET (-34%) and RENDER (-41%).

What this means: AI tokens are very sensitive to NVIDIA’s stock performance. VIRTUAL rose 7.2% on October 2 alongside NVIDIA but failed to maintain momentum, indicating traders are moving to safer investments amid broader market uncertainty (Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 31/100).

What to watch: NVIDIA’s Q3 earnings report on October 29. Strong results could boost AI tokens, including VIRTUAL.

3. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Summary: VIRTUAL’s price fell below the important 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.913 and is trading below key moving averages (7-day SMA at $0.99 and 200-day EMA at $1.37). The RSI over 7 days is at 19.5, signaling the token is heavily oversold.

What this means: Traders likely increased selling after the price broke below $0.91 support. Although the oversold RSI suggests a possible short-term bounce, the MACD indicator (-0.033) shows that downward momentum remains strong.

Key levels to watch: Closing above $0.797 (61.8% Fibonacci level) could help stabilize the price. If it fails, the price might fall further to $0.633 (78.6% Fibonacci level).

Conclusion

VIRTUAL’s recent price drop is due to a combination of platform-specific challenges (declining user engagement), broader sector issues (AI token volatility), and negative technical trends. While the oversold condition might lead to a short-term rebound, a sustained recovery will likely depend on either a renewed AI rally driven by NVIDIA or clear signs of user growth.

Key point: Can VIRTUAL hold the $0.70 support level—a key psychological barrier—before NVIDIA’s earnings report?

What could affect the price of VIRTUAL?

VIRTUAL’s price is caught between excitement about AI innovation and concerns over declining user activity.

1. AI DApp Launch (Positive) – The first AI app launching in two weeks could renew developer interest.
2. User Drop (Negative) – A 90% drop in users on SocialFi and agent platforms threatens demand for VIRTUAL.
3. NVIDIA Link (Mixed) – VIRTUAL’s price moves with NVIDIA’s stock, but this connection can lead to big swings both up and down.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Project Highlights (Positive Factors)

Virtuals Protocol is launching its first AI decentralized app (DApp) on October 26, 2025. This launch will test if its technology for coordinating AI agents can attract real users. The project has $16 million in its treasury to support development, and recent governance decisions have approved strategies to generate yields and fund contributors (Wave-1).

If the DApp gains traction, it could prove VIRTUAL’s value in monetizing AI agents, similar to how NVIDIA’s stock rally on October 2 boosted AI-related tokens by 7.2% (Coinspeaker). However, a recent 36% drop in VIRTUAL’s price over one week shows some investors remain cautious about how quickly this will happen.

2. Market Challenges (Negative Factors)

User activity on Virtuals Protocol has dropped sharply—from 10,000 daily active users to about 1,000-1,500 in the third quarter of 2025 (Cointribune). This decline reflects broader fatigue in SocialFi platforms. Competitors like Fetch.ai, with a $1.59 billion market cap, show the AI token space is crowded.

While Metaverse and gaming DApps make up 25% of crypto activity, much of this engagement is seen as “artificial” or not generating real revenue. For VIRTUAL to succeed, its AI agents need to prove they can create actual income beyond just speculative trading. Currently, VIRTUAL’s price at $0.71 is 48% below its 30-day average price of $1.13, highlighting the challenge.

3. Broader AI Market Sentiment (Mixed Factors)

VIRTUAL’s price tends to move with NVIDIA’s stock (with a beta of 1.2), but the overall market shows low risk appetite, as indicated by a Fear & Greed Index score of 31. Additionally, a September 2025 SEC roundtable on AI and crypto has introduced some regulatory uncertainty around tokens like VIRTUAL.

On the positive side, there is a strong market expectation (97.8% probability) of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which could boost crypto prices overall. VIRTUAL’s technical indicators, like a 60-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 28.49, suggest it is oversold and might bounce back if it can reclaim the $1.17 price level.

Conclusion

VIRTUAL’s upcoming AI DApp launch is a critical moment. It needs to show that its AI agents can generate real value beyond hype. Traders should watch if the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.93 holds as support after the launch. If it fails, the price could retest a low near $0.423.

Will the excitement around AI be enough to overcome falling user numbers, or is this a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario?

What are people saying about VIRTUAL?

The Virtuals Protocol community is feeling a mix of excitement about new AI agent features and concern over the token’s price swings. Here’s the latest:

1. Governance is live – veVIRTUAL token holders now have a say in how the protocol is run.
2. Expanding to Ethereum – AI agents are now integrated directly with Ethereum and Coinbase.
3. Technical issues fixed quickly – Early bugs were resolved fast, building trust in the development team.
4. Price volatility – The token dropped 36% in a week, with bears aiming for a $1.20 price point.

Deep Dive

1. @virtuals_io: Onchain Governance Activated 🗳️

"Wave-1 proposals passed, funding defense strategies and grants."
– @virtuals_io (132K followers · 15.2K impressions · 2025-07-07 10:53 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive step toward decentralization. By letting the community decide how funds are used, the protocol relies less on a central team and encourages long-term growth aligned with user interests.

2. @virtuals_io: Ethereum & Coinbase Integrations 🤖

"Agents on Base now surface in Coinbase Retail DEX."
– @virtuals_io (132K followers · 8.9K impressions · 2025-08-08 21:58 UTC)
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What this means: This integration opens Virtuals Protocol to over 110 million Coinbase users, potentially boosting the use of AI agents and increasing demand for $VIRTUAL tokens.

3. @virtuals_io: PokPok Agent Crisis Averted 🛠️

"$CTDA LP pool mismatch resolved in 60 minutes."
– @virtuals_io (132K followers · 6.1K impressions · 2025-08-20 15:49 UTC)
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What this means: The team responded quickly to a technical issue, showing the protocol can handle problems efficiently. However, repeated bugs could make users nervous about new AI agent launches.

4. @johnmorganFL: Bears Maul VIRTUAL 📉

"VIRTUAL Token Crashes 13% as Bears Take Control."
– @johnmorganFL (89K followers · 42K impressions · 2025-08-15 08:49 UTC)
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What this means: The token is facing downward pressure. If it falls below $0.68, more selling could follow, increasing the risk of a bigger price drop.

Conclusion

The outlook for $VIRTUAL is mixed. The ecosystem is growing with new governance and Ethereum integration, which is promising. But the token price has dropped about 60% from its 2025 highs, raising concerns. Keep an eye on the $1.20 support level—if it breaks, panic selling might happen; if it holds, it could mean investors still believe in the AI-driven future of Virtuals Protocol. The big question: can Virtuals’ AI agents gain enough traction to overcome the broader crypto market’s ups and downs?

What is the latest news about VIRTUAL?

Virtuals Protocol is facing challenges with fewer users but is also benefiting from growth in the AI sector. Here’s a quick update:

1. SocialFi User Drop (October 10, 2025) – Daily active users fell by 90%, reflecting wider issues in decentralized apps (dApps).
2. NVIDIA Stock Boost (October 2, 2025) – A surge in AI-related tokens, including VIRTUAL, lifted its price by 7.2% in one day.
3. Launchpad Criticism (September 28, 2025) – The platform is criticized for focusing on launching many tokens rather than supporting strong, sustainable projects.

In-Depth Look

1. SocialFi User Drop (October 10, 2025)

What happened?
Virtuals Protocol saw its daily active wallets drop sharply from about 10,000 to between 1,000 and 1,500 in the third quarter of 2025, according to data from DappRadar. This decline matches a 22.4% drop in users across decentralized apps, especially in SocialFi and gaming platforms, which are struggling to keep users engaged.

Why it matters
This drop is a negative sign for VIRTUAL, showing that consumer interest is weakening despite the platform’s advanced AI features. However, Virtuals is shifting focus toward institutional decentralized finance (DeFi), where platforms like the Plasma blockchain hold $8 billion in stablecoins. This shift could attract more institutional investors interested in steady returns. (Source: Cointribune)

2. NVIDIA Stock Boost (October 2, 2025)

What happened?
VIRTUAL’s price jumped 7.2% to $1.17 after NVIDIA’s stock climbed above $190, sparking a rally in AI-related cryptocurrencies. The token’s market value reached $763 million, helped by $2.6 billion moving into riskier investments ahead of expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Why it matters
This shows how VIRTUAL’s price is influenced by the broader AI sector and shifts in investor sentiment. Although the price boost was temporary (the current price is $0.71), it highlights how technology trends and big-money moves can cause price swings. (Source: Coinspeaker)

3. Launchpad Criticism (September 28, 2025)

What happened?
Virtuals Protocol has helped launch over 17,000 AI agent tokens but faces criticism for supporting too many low-quality projects. The CEO of OpenServ suggests the platform should shift from just distributing tokens to providing full development support for projects.

Why it matters
This feedback is mixed for the future. While launching many tokens quickly can dilute value, Virtuals’ strong technical foundation—like its ERC-8004 agent identity standard—gives it a chance to lead if it improves quality control. (Source: Cointelegraph)

Conclusion

Virtuals Protocol is at a crossroads. While it’s losing retail users, it’s gaining traction with institutional DeFi and benefiting from AI sector growth. Recent price swings reflect broader economic uncertainty, but ongoing upgrades to its technology, including Ethereum integration and the ERC-8004 standard, suggest it has long-term potential. The key question is whether Virtuals can successfully shift toward high-value AI applications to overcome its challenges with everyday users.

What is expected in the development of VIRTUAL?

Virtuals Protocol is moving forward with key developments:

1. AI DAPP Launch (October 24, 2025) – The first decentralized AI app goes live, adding new ways to use the platform.
2. Global Builder Workshops (2025–2026) – Expanding developer training and support, especially in Asia and Europe.
3. Agent Commerce Protocol Upgrade (Q1 2026) – Improving how AI agents earn money and work across different blockchains.

In-Depth Look

1. AI DAPP Launch (October 24, 2025)

What’s happening:
Virtuals Protocol will release its first AI decentralized app (DAPP). This app lets users create AI agents that can perform tasks like real-time security checks and predicting trends. It’s built on Ethereum’s Layer 2 network called Base, which helps keep things fast and affordable while using Virtuals’ existing system for managing these AI agents (source).

Why it matters:
This launch is a positive step for VIRTUAL because it opens up new ways to use the token, such as staking, voting on decisions, and paying fees to run AI agents. However, if the app is hard to use, it might slow down how quickly people start using it.

2. Global Builder Workshops (2025–2026)

What’s happening:
After successful workshops in Hangzhou and Shenzhen, Virtuals plans more events to help developers learn how to build AI agents that work with Ethereum and similar blockchains. These workshops will focus on regions like Southeast Asia and Europe (source).

Why it matters:
This effort is generally positive because growing the developer community is key to expanding the Virtuals ecosystem. More developers mean more types of AI agents and services. Still, competition from other AI blockchain projects could limit how much impact these workshops have.

3. Agent Commerce Protocol Upgrade (Q1 2026)

What’s happening:
Virtuals plans to upgrade its Agent Commerce Protocol to make it easier for AI agent creators and users to share revenue. New features will include flexible pricing and the ability to settle payments across different blockchains using ERC-8004 standards (source).

Why it matters:
If this upgrade goes smoothly, it could attract more developers by making it easier to earn money from their AI agents. On the downside, delays or technical problems with cross-chain payments could slow progress.

Conclusion

Virtuals Protocol’s roadmap balances launching new products like the AI DAPP with building a strong developer community and improving the platform’s technology. By focusing on Ethereum integration and practical AI tools, VIRTUAL is well-positioned to benefit from the growing interest in AI combined with blockchain technology. However, how the broader crypto market feels in late 2025 will play a big role in how many developers get involved.

What updates are there in the VIRTUAL code base?

Virtuals Protocol is making important improvements to its AI agent system with several key technical updates.

1. Unicorn Launch System (September 4, 2025) – Replaced the old Genesis model with a new system that ties agent launches to performance and token use.
2. PokPok Agent Fix (August 20, 2025) – Quickly fixed a problem with liquidity pools during a token launch in under an hour.
3. USDC Integration (August 12, 2025) – Added support for stablecoin payments, making transactions more stable and accessible.

Deep Dive

1. Unicorn Launch System (September 4, 2025)

What happened: Virtuals Protocol replaced its previous Genesis points system with the Unicorn Launch System, which is designed to be more performance-focused. Now, founders pay a 100 $VIRTUAL fee to launch AI agents, and token releases for teams depend on meeting specific performance goals.

This change moves away from speculative launches and encourages accountability. Additionally, 5% of new tokens are automatically given to $VIRTUAL stakers, rewarding those who hold tokens long-term.

Why it matters: This update is positive for $VIRTUAL because it aligns the success of developers with rewards for token holders. It helps reduce risky price swings and increases the value for those who stake their tokens. (Source)

2. PokPok Agent Fix (August 20, 2025)

What happened: During the launch of the $CTDA token, a technical issue stopped liquidity pool deposits. The Virtuals team responded quickly by replacing the faulty contract within an hour and compensating users affected by the problem.

They retired the problematic contract (0x6DD4E9E...) and moved users to a fixed version, preventing major disruptions in liquidity.

Why it matters: This is a neutral update for $VIRTUAL. It shows the team can respond quickly to problems, but repeated launch issues could affect user confidence in new AI agents. (Source)

3. USDC Integration (August 12, 2025)

What happened: Virtuals Protocol added native support for USDC, a stablecoin, allowing AI agents to handle payments without the price swings common in cryptocurrencies.

This means agents can now earn fees and complete transactions in USDC, which is attractive for businesses that want stable, predictable payments. The update involved upgrading smart contracts on the Base Layer 2 network to support cross-chain transactions.

Why it matters: This is a positive development for $VIRTUAL because it broadens real-world use cases and makes it easier for companies unfamiliar with crypto to use AI agents. (Source)

Conclusion

Virtuals Protocol is focusing on strengthening its infrastructure through performance-based launches, quick problem-solving, and expanded payment options. These updates improve the AI agent ecosystem, but the protocol faces challenges after a 59.9% price drop over the past 90 days. Watching agent deployment rates and fee revenue in the coming months will be key to understanding if Virtuals can keep developer interest and grow.