What could affect the price of S?

Sonic’s price is caught between excitement over its U.S. expansion and concerns about increased token supply.

1. U.S. Traditional Finance (TradFi) Bridge – $200 million expansion approved, focusing on ETFs and Nasdaq involvement (positive for price)
2. Token Unlocks – 150 million Sonic (S) tokens ($45 million) unlocked on September 9, which could increase selling pressure (negative for price)
3. Fee Monetization – Developers receive 90% of network fees, encouraging ecosystem growth (positive for price)

Deep Dive

1. U.S. Expansion & Institutional Adoption (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Sonic Labs received nearly unanimous community approval for a $200 million expansion into the U.S. market. This includes a $50 million plan for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a $100 million reserve for Nasdaq PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity), and 150 million S tokens dedicated to Sonic USA operations. This move aims to increase Sonic’s exposure to institutional investors and gain regulatory approval.

What this means:
Historically, ETF approvals—like those seen with Bitcoin—have led to sustained price increases over several months. Integration with Nasdaq could bring in traditional investors, although regulatory processes might slow progress. This expansion also addresses previous liquidity issues, with GSR now acting as a market maker to support trading (MEXC News).

2. Token Unlocks & Inflation Risks (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On September 9, 150 million S tokens (about 5% of the total supply) were unlocked. This is part of ongoing vesting from a larger 190.5 million S airdrop. Additionally, 47.6 million new tokens are minted annually until 2031. However, new token burn mechanisms aim to reduce inflation.

What this means:
The sudden increase in available tokens can lead to price drops in the short term, as seen in July 2025 when Sonic’s price fell 22% after a previous airdrop. On the upside, the updated burn system destroys 50% of transaction fees (excluding Fee Monetization fees), which could offset 60-80% of new token supply if network activity picks up.

3. Developer Incentives & Ecosystem Growth (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Sonic’s Fee Monetization (FeeM) program allows developers to earn 90% of the fees generated by their decentralized applications (dApps). Users also earn points that can be redeemed for airdrops. Currently, over $328 million in Real-World Assets (RWAs) are tokenized on the Sonic blockchain.

What this means:
This approach is similar to successful Web2 platforms like YouTube, where creators share in advertising revenue, creating a positive feedback loop. Since launching FeeM, Sonic’s Total Value Locked (TVL) increased by 40% to $650 million as of July 2025. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.29 indicates that momentum needs to pick up again.

Conclusion

Sonic’s price will depend on how well it balances the positive effects of institutional adoption with the negative impact of increased token supply. Watch how the market handles the September 9 token unlock and progress on ETF approvals. Also, see if developer activity driven by Fee Monetization can counteract dilution. Keep an eye on daily active addresses (which rose 89% in July) and the token burn rate after recent upgrades for further insights.

What are people saying about S?

The Sonic (S) community swings between strong optimism and some nervous doubts, with most conversations focused on upcoming airdrops and new infrastructure developments. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Memes about $100 price targets clash with bearish market signals
2. A $200 million U.S. expansion token plan is generating excitement among institutions
3. Integration with Covalent boosts claims of 400,000 transactions per second (TPS)
4. A 40% jump in Total Value Locked (TVL) in 24 hours points to growing DeFi interest

Deep Dive

1. @SpacePoernchen: "$100 Sonic moon bid" 🚀

"To all my Sonic $S holders – just a few more years and you can sell at $100"
– @SpacePoernchen (September 16, 2025, 9:20 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a cautious-to-negative outlook for Sonic. The $100 price target represents a 100x increase from the current $0.295 price, which lacks solid backing from fundamentals. This could lead to disappointment for everyday investors, especially since the price has dropped about 20% over the past 60 days.

2. @blockzhub_cn: "$200M U.S. token offering" 📈

"Sonic Labs is issuing $200 million worth of $S tokens to support blockchain growth in U.S. capital markets"
– @blockzhub_cn (September 1, 2025, 6:28 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive long-term development if Sonic can successfully execute the plan. The $200 million could help build important partnerships and expand the network. However, there is a risk that issuing more tokens could dilute the value of existing ones, especially since 2.88 billion tokens are already circulating.

3. @XenaNFTs: "Covalent turbocharges 400K TPS chain" ⚡

"Sonic’s partnership with Covalent allows for near-instant data streaming, benefiting high-frequency trading bots and AI systems"
– @XenaNFTs (September 10, 2025, 8:35 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a technically positive sign. The improved infrastructure could attract sophisticated traders and institutions. However, with a 24-hour trading volume of $69.8 million, Sonic is still in the early stages of adoption.

4. CoinMarketCap Post: "$650M TVL pumps DeFi rotation" 🔥

"Sonic’s Total Value Locked jumped 40% to $650 million in 24 hours, surpassing some competitors like SEI"
– Community post (July 31, 2025, 10:33 AM UTC)
What this means: This is a mixed signal. The increase in TVL shows more capital is flowing into Sonic’s DeFi ecosystem, but a turnover ratio of 0.0821 suggests liquidity is still relatively low compared to its $849 million market cap.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for Sonic is cautiously optimistic. Infrastructure improvements and U.S. expansion plans provide reasons for hope, but the token faces immediate resistance around $0.40—a key price level that was once support but now acts as resistance. Keep an eye on whether the recent 13.21% gain over 90 days can overcome the larger 63.46% drop over the past year, especially as the broader altcoin market continues to fluctuate.

What is the latest news about S?

Sonic is balancing risks of token dilution with its plans to grow in traditional finance as the altcoin market heats up. Here are the key updates:

1. $200M U.S. Expansion Approved (September 1, 2025) – Nearly all voters supported Sonic’s plans for Nasdaq listing and an ETF.
2. 150M Token Unlock (September 9, 2025) – 5% of Sonic’s tokens were released, valued at $45 million at the time.
3. Real-World Asset (RWA) Oracles Activated (September 6, 2025) – DIA integrated over 1,000 real-world assets onto Sonic’s platform.

In-Depth Look

1. $200M U.S. Expansion Approved (September 1, 2025)

Summary:
Sonic Labs received overwhelming community approval to allocate $200 million worth of tokens for expanding in the U.S. This includes a $100 million PIPE fund linked to Nasdaq, a $50 million ETF held by BitGo, and a New York-based subsidiary funded with 150 million Sonic tokens.

What this means:
This move is positive for attracting institutional investors but comes with the risk of diluting existing token holders. It addresses Sonic’s past limits on treasury size (which was less than 3% of total tokens) and fits with new tokenomics that burn 50% of transaction fees not related to builders. However, regulatory approval for the ETF and Nasdaq listing is still uncertain. (MEXC)

2. 150M Token Unlock (September 9, 2025)

Summary:
On September 9, 5.02% of Sonic’s circulating tokens (150 million tokens worth about $45 million) were unlocked. This followed a 13.21% price increase over 90 days but came before a 20% price drop over the next 60 days.

What this means:
The token unlock could lead to short-term selling pressure, especially since Sonic’s daily trading volume dropped 17% week-over-week to $69.8 million. However, the updated fee-burning mechanism—burning up to 50% of transaction fees—may help reduce dilution if network activity picks up. It’s important to watch for increased token movement on exchanges after the unlock. (Weex)

3. Real-World Asset Oracles Activated (September 6, 2025)

Summary:
DIA launched verifiable oracles that bring data for over 1,000 real-world assets onto Sonic’s blockchain. This allows decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to tokenize assets like commodities, bonds, and stocks.

What this means:
This development strengthens Sonic’s role in institutional DeFi by expanding its use cases. Sonic’s network can handle 10,000 transactions per second, and with $328 million worth of real-world assets already on-chain, demand for Sonic tokens as transaction fees (“gas”) could increase. However, the actual impact depends on how well partner projects adopt these oracles. (X)

Conclusion

Sonic’s focus on U.S. expansion and integrating real-world assets shows strong potential for long-term growth. However, upcoming token unlocks and regulatory challenges may test investor confidence. The key question is whether fee-burning and progress on the ETF will offset concerns about dilution as the altcoin market rallies.

What is expected in the development of S?

Sonic’s roadmap is centered on bringing in institutional investors and growing its ecosystem:

1. Sonic Summit 2025 (September 29–30) – A key event in Singapore to showcase progress before TOKEN2049.
2. Mainnet Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Adding Pectra compatibility and EIP-7702 for easier and safer transactions.
3. Traditional Finance Expansion (2025–2026) – Launching a $50 million ETF, raising $100 million through NASDAQ PIPE, and setting up Sonic USA.

In-Depth Look

1. Sonic Summit 2025 (September 29–30)

What’s Happening: Sonic Summit 2025 will take place in Singapore just before TOKEN2049. It will highlight Sonic’s latest technical improvements, developer tools, and new partnerships. The event is aimed at institutional investors and developers, featuring talks on Sonic’s fast Ethereum-compatible blockchain and real-world asset (RWA) integrations, like the recent deployment of the DIA oracle supporting over 1,000 assets (DIA).

Why It Matters: This event could boost adoption by attracting developers and investors. However, unless major partnerships are announced, it’s unlikely to cause a big price jump.

2. Mainnet Client Upgrade (Q4 2025)

What’s Happening: After testing in August, Sonic plans a mainnet upgrade that includes Ethereum’s Pectra improvements and EIP-7702. These changes allow more flexible and secure transactions, such as gasless interactions, improving the user experience and wallet safety (Sonic Labs).

Why It Matters: This upgrade is expected to make Sonic more attractive to developers. However, since Ethereum is adopting similar features, Sonic’s unique advantage may be lessened.

3. Traditional Finance Expansion (2025–2026)

What’s Happening: Following a governance vote in September, Sonic will:

• Invest $50 million in a regulated ETF that tracks $S token performance.
• Allocate $100 million for a NASDAQ PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) to bring in institutional funds.
• Establish Sonic USA LLC in New York, backed by 150 million $S tokens valued at about $44.7 million (MEXC News).

Why It Matters: These moves could improve liquidity and credibility for Sonic in the long run. However, issuing new tokens might dilute existing holders, and regulatory approvals—especially from the SEC—are uncertain and could delay progress.

Conclusion

Sonic is shifting focus toward institutional adoption while enhancing its technology for developers. The upcoming Summit and mainnet upgrade may help stabilize market sentiment in the short term. However, the traditional finance initiatives have a longer timeline and come with execution risks. The key question is whether Sonic’s speed and regulatory focus will help it outpace competitors in the race to offer regulated digital assets.

What updates are there in the S code base?

Sonic's latest updates focus on improving scalability and real-world use.

1. Ethereum Pectra Compatibility (August 12, 2025) – Testnet 2.1 gets ready to work smoothly with Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade.
2. Covalent Data Integration (September 10, 2025) – Enables lightning-fast data streaming for advanced trading and AI applications.
3. Trustless RWA Oracles (September 6, 2025) – DIA’s system brings over 1,000 real-world assets onto Sonic’s blockchain.

Deep Dive

1. Ethereum Pectra Compatibility (August 12, 2025)

Overview: Testnet 2.1 now supports Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, which improves how the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) handles transactions and scales.

Sonic has integrated 11 new Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), including better gas efficiency and account abstraction, through its own SonicVM. This means developers can now build smart contracts compatible with Ethereum’s latest standards, with a full mainnet rollout coming soon.

Why it matters: This update strengthens Sonic’s infrastructure for the future, allowing it to work seamlessly with Ethereum’s growing ecosystem. Developers get access to the newest tools, which could attract more projects to Sonic.
(Source)

2. Covalent Data Integration (September 10, 2025)

Overview: Sonic now streams blockchain data to Covalent’s platform at speeds measured in milliseconds, supporting high-frequency trading and AI-powered strategies.

With Sonic’s ability to handle over 400,000 transactions per second (TPS), this integration allows real-time data to power applications like instant arbitrage bots and automated DeFi tools.

Why it matters: This opens the door for professional traders and developers to build sophisticated, automated trading systems on Sonic. Plus, builders keep 90% of the fees, encouraging more innovation and growth in the ecosystem.
(Source)

3. Trustless RWA Oracles (September 6, 2025)

Overview: DIA’s decentralized oracles now provide verified data for over 1,000 real-world assets (RWAs), such as commodities and bonds, on Sonic.

This allows these assets to be tokenized and traded on Sonic’s blockchain with transparent, auditable data secured by DIA’s network.

Why it matters: This bridges traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), making Sonic a strong platform for institutional asset tokenization. It could lead to better liquidity and lower trading costs on the network.
(Source)

Conclusion

Sonic is focusing on aligning with Ethereum’s upgrades, enhancing data infrastructure, and integrating real-world assets—key steps to attract developers and institutional users. With Testnet 2.1’s mainnet launch approaching, it will be interesting to see how these improvements position Sonic against competitors like Solana and Avalanche.

Why did the price of S fall?

Sonic (S) dropped 3.95% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.89%. The main reasons include worries about token dilution, technical price weaknesses, and negative momentum made worse by recent token unlocks.

1. A $45 million token unlock on September 9 increased selling pressure.
2. A bearish MACD crossover indicates weakening momentum.
3. Market doubts about Sonic’s $200 million traditional finance (TradFi) expansion plan.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Token Unlock Impact (Negative)

What happened:
On September 9, Sonic released 150 million S tokens, which is about 5% of the tokens currently circulating, worth $45 million (BlockBeats). While this event didn’t directly cause the recent price drop, many holders likely sold these newly unlocked tokens over time, adding selling pressure.

Why it matters:
When tokens unlock, holders often sell them to take profits, increasing supply on the market. Given Sonic’s daily trading volume is around $70 million, the $45 million unlocked tokens represent a significant amount of potential selling. Historically, Sonic’s price tends to underperform for about 7 to 10 days after such unlocks.

2. Technical Price Weakness (Negative)

What happened:
Sonic’s price fell below important support levels at $0.302 and the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.306. The MACD indicator, which helps track momentum, turned negative, confirming bearish trends.

Why it matters:
Technical traders often sell when key support levels break, which can accelerate price declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.28, suggesting there’s still room for the price to fall before it becomes oversold. The next major support level is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.407, but the current trend points toward testing the $0.28 Fibonacci retracement level.

What to watch:
If Sonic’s price closes above $0.307 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), it could indicate a short-term bounce or relief.

3. Expansion Plan Concerns (Mixed)

What happened:
Sonic Labs got approval to issue $200 million worth of new tokens to fund its expansion in the U.S. traditional finance sector (MEXC News). While this is a positive long-term move, the increase in token supply by 2.8% raised concerns about dilution.

Why it matters:
Investors are cautious about the risks involved in executing such a large plan. Only 14% of the new tokens will be removed from circulation through transaction fees, which may not be enough to offset dilution fears. Since Sonic’s price is already down over 63% compared to last year, some investors see this as “selling the news” — reacting negatively to ambitious plans that will take time to pay off.

Conclusion

Sonic is currently facing three main challenges: selling pressure after the token unlock, technical price breakdowns, and worries about dilution from its expansion plan. While the company’s move into traditional finance could add value over time, short-term market sentiment remains weak.

What to watch next:
Keep an eye on the September 18 snapshot for the Sonic token rewards campaign. Strong participation could boost confidence among builders and the community.