Why did the price of S go up?

Sonic (S) increased by 1.37% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its downward trend over the past week (-10.43%) and month (-36.48%). Here are the main factors behind this movement:

1. Ecosystem Criticism Sparks Interest – Public criticism of Ethereum’s support for developers has shifted attention toward Sonic’s ecosystem, which offers incentives for builders.
2. Technical Signs of a Rebound – Indicators like an oversold RSI and a double-bottom price pattern suggest a possible price recovery.
3. Overall Market Improvement – The total cryptocurrency market cap grew by 2.14%, helping boost short-term momentum.

Deep Dive

1. Ecosystem Sentiment Shift (Positive Influence)

Overview:
On October 21, Andre Cronje, founder of Fantom and Sonic, along with Polygon’s Sandeep Nailwal, publicly criticized the Ethereum Foundation for not providing enough support to developers. They contrasted this with Sonic’s approach, which includes funding, security audits, and marketing help for developers (Yahoo Finance).

What this means:
This public discussion painted Sonic as a more developer-friendly platform compared to Ethereum, especially amid Ethereum’s current governance challenges. While this didn’t directly cause the price increase, it likely encouraged speculative buying.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on developer migration trends and Sonic’s grant distributions planned for the fourth quarter.

2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Sonic’s price formed a double-bottom pattern at $0.16 (confirmed on October 20), but it faces resistance near the 50-day moving average, around $0.169. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 27.9, indicating the coin was oversold, and the MACD indicator showed that bearish momentum was slowing down.

What this means:
Traders saw $0.16 as a potential price floor, leading to some short-term buying. However, trading volume over 24 hours dropped 35% to $43 million, suggesting that buying interest is not very strong yet. For a clear bullish trend, Sonic needs to close above $0.169 on a daily basis.

3. Broader Market Context (Neutral Influence)

The overall cryptocurrency market cap increased by 2.14%, but Bitcoin’s dominance reached 59.29%, the highest since June 2025. Sonic’s performance lagged behind the market, reflecting ongoing cautiousness toward altcoins.

Conclusion

Sonic’s recent 24-hour price gain seems driven by technical factors indicating oversold conditions and a shift in narrative favoring its ecosystem. However, weak trading volume and Bitcoin’s strong market dominance limit further upside potential. Key point to watch: Will Sonic maintain a price above the 50-day moving average ($0.169) with stronger volume, or will resistance push it back down toward $0.16?

What could affect the price of S?

Sonic’s price is caught between strong growth drivers within its ecosystem and broader market challenges.

1. Ecosystem incentives ramp up – FeeM and airdrops boost developer and user engagement
2. U.S. market expansion risks – ETF plans add credibility but could dilute token value
3. Technical signals mixed – Oversold conditions clash with a bearish market trend

In-Depth Analysis

1. Fee Monetization & Airdrops (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Sonic’s FeeM system allocates 90% of network fees to app developers (June ’25 Newsletter). Additionally, ongoing airdrops totaling 190.5 million S tokens are being distributed to U.S. users to encourage adoption. Recent partnerships with Trust Wallet and Ledger Live make it easier for users to access Sonic.

What this means:
These incentives are likely to increase transaction activity and encourage more users to stake or use Sonic in decentralized finance (DeFi), which historically supports price growth for Layer 1 tokens. However, since only 25% of airdropped tokens are unlocked immediately, the remaining tokens unlocking over time could lead to gradual selling pressure.

2. U.S. Institutional Expansion (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
New proposals have been approved to issue 633.9 million additional S tokens (worth about $104 million) to support a NASDAQ PIPE vehicle and an exchange-traded fund (ETF) (Sept ’25 News). This move follows the appointment of CEO Mitchell Demeter, who is focused on building institutional partnerships.

What this means:
While launching an ETF could attract significant new investment, the increase in token supply by 14% risks diluting existing holders. The success of this strategy depends on whether demand for regulated investment products will outpace the inflation caused by new token issuance—similar to how Bitcoin ETFs have balanced miner sales.

3. Technical Outlook: Short-Term Bounce vs. Market Pressure (Neutral)

Overview:
Sonic is trading at $0.164, below major moving averages like the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.359. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 27.9, indicating the token is oversold—a condition that has previously led to 15-25% price rebounds in June and July.

What this means:
There is potential for a short-term price bounce, but broader market indicators like the crypto Fear Index (28/100) and Bitcoin dominance at 59.3% suggest altcoins like Sonic may continue to face downward pressure. Watch the $0.173 Fibonacci retracement level closely—breaking above it could trigger stop-loss orders and a sharper rally.

Conclusion

Sonic’s developer rewards and U.S. market strategy provide solid fundamental reasons for growth, but macroeconomic caution and upcoming token unlocks (47.63 million S in July ’25) limit upside momentum. For traders, the key question is: Can FeeM-driven growth in total value locked (TVL) outpace token inflation by the first quarter of 2026? Keep an eye on weekly token burns versus new issuance at the Sonic Dashboard.

What are people saying about S?

The Sonic (S) community is divided between hopeful price predictions and cautious views on its Layer 1 (L1) relaunch. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Tech improvements spark optimism – Faster Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) performance and lower fees
2. Airdrop excitement vs. selling pressure – $80 million worth of U.S. eligibility stirs debate
3. Total Value Locked (TVL) drop raises concerns – 67% decline since May

In-Depth Look

1. @sunthinh222: Sonic’s Relaunch Seen as Positive

“$S isn’t just a rebrand – it offers 10,000 transactions per second, almost zero fees, and cross-chain bridges. Bull case: $0.40 in 6–12 months if developers and TVL grow.”
– @sunthinh222 (3.2K followers · 12K impressions · 2025-10-11 04:45 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Optimism is based on Sonic’s technical upgrades, which aim to compete with platforms like Solana and Polygon. However, short-term risks remain from users converting Fantom (FTM) tokens to Sonic (S) and selling.

2. @SpacePoernchen: High Price Hopes vs. Reality

“Just a few more years and you can sell $S at $100 🤗”
– @SpacePoernchen (8.7K followers · 23K impressions · 2025-09-16 09:20 UTC)
View original post
What this means: These extreme price targets show community excitement but don’t align with current fundamentals. Sonic’s price has dropped 69% from its all-time high ($1.03 down to $0.164).

3. The Defiant: TVL Drop Signals Trouble

“TVL fell 67% after the Wintermute deal ended. Fee incentives are less valuable as $S price drops, causing users to leave.”
– The Defiant (2025-09-10)
What this means: Sonic relies heavily on short-term capital and token rewards to keep users engaged. As these fade, the network struggles to maintain organic growth.

Conclusion

The outlook for $S is mixed. Technical upgrades and U.S.-focused airdrops (like the planned 200 million $S distribution) are driving speculative interest. However, the sharp TVL decline and ongoing selling pressure from token unlocks (such as $78 million unlocked in July 2025) are significant challenges. Keep an eye on the $0.22–$0.30 price range—falling below this could undermine bullish expectations, while a TVL rebound above $500 million might indicate renewed institutional support.

What is the latest news about S?

Sonic is navigating challenges within its ecosystem and making technical adjustments while trying to gain market momentum. Here are the latest updates:

1. Polygon & Sonic Leaders Criticize Ethereum Foundation (Oct 21, 2025) – They pointed out a lack of support for Layer 2 (L2) developers by the Ethereum Foundation, highlighting Sonic’s stronger support programs.
2. Double-Bottom Pattern Indicates Possible Price Reversal (Oct 20, 2025) – A technical chart pattern suggests Sonic’s price could rise if it holds the $0.16 support level.
3. Bitvavo Completes FTM-to-S Token Swap (Oct 13, 2025) – The Dutch exchange finished migrating Fantom tokens to Sonic’s native token, making it easier for European traders to access Sonic.

Deep Dive

1. Polygon & Sonic Leaders Criticize Ethereum Foundation (October 21, 2025)

Overview:
Sandeep Nailwal from Polygon and Andre Cronje from Sonic Labs publicly criticized the Ethereum Foundation for not providing direct support to developers working on Layer 2 solutions. Cronje shared that he spent over 700 ETH (worth more than $4.1 million) deploying projects on Ethereum without receiving grants or recognition. In contrast, he praised Sonic for actively funding its ecosystem and conducting security audits.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for Sonic because it positions itself as a more developer-friendly platform compared to Ethereum. Cronje’s comments highlight Sonic’s commitment to supporting builders through grants and marketing help, which could attract developers who might otherwise work on Ethereum projects. However, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin acknowledged Polygon’s contributions in zero-knowledge (ZK) technology, suggesting there’s still room for collaboration between these projects. (Coinspeaker)

2. Double-Bottom Pattern Indicates Possible Price Reversal (October 20, 2025)

Overview:
Sonic’s price chart shows a “double-bottom” pattern around $0.16, which is often seen as a bullish sign that the price might start to rise. However, the price faces resistance near the 50-day moving average at $0.18, and trading volume is relatively low at $63 million over 24 hours, indicating cautious investor interest.

What this means:
If Sonic’s price can close above $0.18, it could potentially rise to $0.26, a 57% increase. But if it fails to break this resistance, the price might drop back to test the $0.16 support level again. The low trading volume suggests that buyers need to step up for this pattern to confirm. Traders will be watching for inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and incentives within Sonic’s ecosystem to help boost momentum. (Crypto.News)

3. Bitvavo Completes FTM-to-S Token Swap (October 13, 2025)

Overview:
Bitvavo, a popular Dutch cryptocurrency exchange, completed a 1:1 token swap from Fantom (FTM) to Sonic’s native token (S). This swap allows European Union users to trade Sonic tokens more easily. The change reflects Sonic’s rebranding from Fantom and highlights its compatibility with Ethereum’s technology and its ability to process 10,000 transactions per second.

What this means:
This update is neutral for Sonic’s price in the short term. It removes complications for Fantom holders switching to Sonic but might increase selling pressure as users adjust their portfolios. Over the long term, this swap should improve Sonic’s liquidity and help it gain a stronger presence among institutional investors in regulated markets. (Bitvavo)

Conclusion

Sonic is balancing efforts to attract developers with the challenge of competing against Ethereum’s dominance. Its recent technical price signals and exchange-driven liquidity changes show potential for recovery. Although the broader crypto market remains cautious (with the Crypto Market Cap Fear & Greed Index at 32), Sonic’s focus on grants and fast transaction speeds could help it carve out a unique position. The question remains whether institutional adoption through Bitvavo and upcoming U.S. ETF plans can offset the current bearish market pressures.

What is expected in the development of S?

Sonic is making significant progress with these key developments:

1. U.S. Expansion Plans (Q4 2025) – $50 million set aside for an ETF tied to the $S token and $100 million for a NASDAQ PIPE investment.
2. Resonance Ecosystem Fund Launch (Q4 2025) – A $25 million fund to support projects in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world assets (RWA).
3. New Incentive Programs After Kaito (November 2025) – Fresh rewards will follow the Season 2 airdrop to keep users engaged.
4. Formation of Sonic USA (2026) – 150 million $S tokens allocated to establish U.S. operations and handle regulatory matters.

In-Depth Look

1. U.S. Expansion Plans (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
Sonic Labs received overwhelming approval (99.99%) to expand into traditional U.S. finance (source). This includes launching a $50 million ETF that tracks the $S token and a $100 million Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) focused on NASDAQ. The goal is to connect decentralized finance with mainstream institutional investors while following U.S. regulations.

Why it matters:
This move could be very positive for $S by attracting big investors and increasing market trust. However, navigating U.S. financial regulations and integrating with traditional finance systems can be complex and risky.

2. Resonance Ecosystem Fund Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
CMCC Global, a top Asian blockchain venture capital firm, is launching a $25 million fund to back projects built on Sonic (October ’25 Newsletter). The fund will focus on DeFi, real-world assets, and blockchain infrastructure, supporting Sonic’s goal of fast, reliable blockchain solutions for institutions.

Why it matters:
This could encourage more developers to build on Sonic and increase the total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem. Success depends on attracting strong projects amid competition from other blockchains.

3. New Incentive Programs After Kaito (November 2025)

What’s happening:
Sonic’s Season 2 airdrop and Kaito program will end on November 1, 2025. New reward systems are planned, likely focusing on loyalty bonuses and rewards tied to specific protocol activities (July ’25 Tweet).

Why it matters:
These incentives may help keep users active in the short term. However, giving out too many tokens could reduce their value. Key indicators to watch include how many users stay engaged and how much $S is staked after the airdrop ends.

4. Formation of Sonic USA (2026)

What’s happening:
As part of its U.S. growth strategy, Sonic will allocate 150 million $S tokens (valued at about $24.3 million today) to create Sonic USA LLC. This includes opening an office in New York and working on regulatory compliance and lobbying (MEXC News).

Why it matters:
This is a positive long-term step. Clearer U.S. regulations could open doors to partnerships and ETF approvals. In the short term, there might be some selling pressure on $S tokens to fund these operations.

Conclusion

Sonic’s roadmap focuses on blending decentralized finance innovation with traditional financial systems, especially in the U.S. The launch of the Resonance Fund and U.S. expansion efforts could boost adoption. Still, factors like token distribution rules and overall market conditions will play a big role in the project’s success.

How will Sonic’s focus on RWAs set it apart in the competitive Layer 1 blockchain space?

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What updates are there in the S code base?

Sonic’s codebase recently integrated Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improved EVM scalability.

1. Ethereum Pectra Compatibility (August 12, 2025) – Sonic Testnet 2.1 now supports Ethereum’s latest upgrade, making smart contracts more flexible.
2. SonicVM Optimization (August 12, 2025) – Upgrades to Sonic’s virtual machine increase transaction speed and lower costs.

Deep Dive

1. Ethereum Pectra Compatibility (August 12, 2025)

Overview: Sonic Testnet 2.1 has been updated to work with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade. This means developers can now create smart contracts that follow Ethereum’s newest standards and take advantage of its latest features.

The update includes 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), which bring improvements like better staking options, more efficient transaction fees (gas), and expanded smart contract capabilities. Sonic keeps its high-speed performance, handling up to 400,000 transactions per second (TPS), while staying compatible with Ethereum’s growing network.

Why it matters: This is good news for Sonic because it makes it easier for developers familiar with Ethereum to build or move their projects to Sonic. It also helps users interact more smoothly with tools designed for Ethereum.
(Source)

2. SonicVM Optimization (August 12, 2025)

Overview: Sonic Testnet 2.1 also improved SonicVM, the blockchain’s custom virtual machine that runs smart contracts. These upgrades make smart contract execution faster and reduce transaction costs by about 15%.

The update improved how the system processes instructions and manages memory, allowing more complex decentralized applications (dApps), like high-frequency trading bots, to run more efficiently. This supports Sonic’s goal of providing infrastructure suitable for large-scale, professional use.

Why it matters: While these technical improvements might not be obvious to everyday users, they strengthen Sonic’s appeal to developers building high-performance applications. This is a positive step toward attracting serious projects.
(Source)

Conclusion

Sonic’s recent updates focus on staying compatible with Ethereum and boosting scalability, positioning it as a fast and flexible EVM-compatible blockchain. Although these changes mainly benefit developers, they could lead to more activity and growth in Sonic’s ecosystem. The question remains: will these technical improvements lead to wider adoption by institutions?