What could affect the price of BTC?

Bitcoin is caught between long-term positive factors and short-term challenges.

1. Regulatory Delays – The U.S. government shutdown is holding up crypto laws and freezing Bitcoin ETF approvals.
2. Big Investor Moves – Mixed signals from large holders: some are buying more Bitcoin, while others are betting against it with $227 million in short positions.
3. Economic Data Impact – The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 25 could boost optimism about a smooth economic slowdown.

In-Depth Look

1. Regulatory Uncertainty & ETF Progress (Mixed Impact)

What’s Happening:
The U.S. government shutdown has paused important crypto-related laws like the GENIUS Act (which deals with stablecoins) and the CLARITY Act (which would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more oversight). On the bright side, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might approve Bitcoin ETFs that allow physical redemption, which could improve market liquidity (CoinDesk).

Why It Matters:
Delays in regulation make big investors hesitant, limiting Bitcoin’s price growth. However, progress on ETFs, such as the recent filing by T. Rowe Price, suggests growing demand once rules are clear. Historically, when ETFs get approved, Bitcoin’s price has jumped 20-30% afterward.

2. Big Bitcoin Holders vs. Bearish Bets (Mixed Impact)

What’s Happening:
Bitcoin wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added over 225,000 BTC since March (Lookonchain). Meanwhile, a well-known trader, BitcoinOG, recently deposited 5,252 BTC but also placed short bets totaling 2,100 BTC (Bitcoinist).

Why It Matters:
Long-term holders control about 68% of Bitcoin’s supply, which suggests strong support. But the derivatives market shows nearly $950 billion in open bets, indicating potential volatility. Notably, similar large short positions by whales came before a 14% price drop in June.

3. Economic Factors & CPI Report (Bullish Potential)

What’s Happening:
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on October 25 is expected to show a 0.2% monthly increase. This could renew hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Bitcoin’s price tends to follow global liquidity trends closely, with an 83% correlation (CoinJournal).

Why It Matters:
If the CPI report is softer than expected, Bitcoin could break through resistance at $109,500. If it doesn’t, the price might fall back to support around $104,000, which is the 50-week moving average and a key level that fueled a 61% rally earlier this year.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s near-term direction depends on resolving regulatory delays around ETFs and how the CPI report affects market liquidity. While big investors accumulating Bitcoin and growing institutional interest in ETFs create a positive foundation, recent large liquidations (about $20 billion last week) could cause short-term price swings.

Will the SEC’s ETF decisions unlock a new wave of liquidity, or will economic challenges keep Bitcoin in a holding pattern? Keep an eye on BTC dominance (currently 59.25%)—if it falls below 57%, it might signal investors shifting toward other cryptocurrencies.

What are people saying about BTC?

Bitcoin's social buzz mixes big investors’ optimistic price targets with everyday traders’ worries. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Big investors aiming for $200K+ – Major firms are very confident about Bitcoin hitting new highs by 2025
2. Mixed feelings among smaller investors – Large holders are buying more, while smaller holders are selling out of fear
3. Technical analysis shows a battle – Some signs point to a downturn, but strong support levels are holding up

Deep Dive

1. @soylicy: Technical Breakout Setup Bullish

"BTC is going through a healthy pullback in a strong upward trend – good time to buy with a target of $135K"
– Oct 12, 2025 · 42K followers · 218K impressions
View original post
What this means: Experts see the recent 7% drop from Bitcoin’s $127K peak as normal profit-taking. The key support level at $108K is holding strong. If Bitcoin rises above $115K, it could spark a new wave of buying.

2. @Burning_Forest: Cycle Top Warning Bearish

"Expecting a peak at $175K in 2025 followed by a crash to $65K by 2027. This hype looks like what happened in 2021."
– Jul 25, 2025 · 16K followers · 89K impressions
View original post
What this means: Experienced traders warn that Bitcoin’s price might be too high right now. Since 90% of Bitcoin holders are currently making a profit, history suggests a 30-50% price drop could be coming.

3. CoinMarketCap Post: Whale vs Retail Mixed

"231 new wallets holding 10+ BTC created, while 37,000 small holders are selling – similar to the fear and greed shift in April."
– Jun 21, 2025 · 684 comments · 12K engagements
What this means: Big investors (like BlackRock, adding $340M in BTC weekly through their ETF) are buying, while many smaller investors are selling out of fear. This pattern often happens before price rallies but depends on Bitcoin staying above $104K.

Conclusion

The overall outlook on Bitcoin is cautiously optimistic. Big investors are confident, but smaller traders remain nervous. Analysts are debating whether Bitcoin will reach $135K or drop to $65K first. The strongest sign right now is growing ETF investments ($6.9 billion so far this year) balancing out Bitcoin leaving exchanges. Keep an eye on the $108K weekly close—holding this level supports the idea that big investors are backing Bitcoin. Falling below $104K could trigger massive sell-offs in Bitcoin derivatives, worth $950 billion. For now, Bitcoin’s 59% share of the crypto market shows it remains the safest choice for investors.

What is the latest news about BTC?

Bitcoin faces downward pressure and changing regulations – here’s the latest update:

1. Price Drops Amid Bearish Mood (October 23, 2025) – BTC struggles to stay above $109,000 as technical indicators show uncertainty.
2. Debate Over Market Peak Grows (October 23, 2025) – The NVT Golden Cross suggests the bull market might still continue.
3. Coinbase Pushes for AML Updates (October 17, 2025) – Calls for crypto-friendly compliance tools gain support.

In-Depth Look

1. Price Drops Amid Bearish Mood (October 23, 2025)

Summary: Bitcoin’s price dipped to $106,717 before bouncing back near $108,000, but it remains below a key moving average (the 100-hour SMA) and faces resistance around $109,500. Analysts point to weak momentum and an RSI near 50, indicating traders are uncertain about the next move. If Bitcoin breaks above $109,500, it could reach $113,500. If not, it might test support at $105,000 again.
What this means: Selling pressure continues due to low trading volume and profit-taking, but the price near $105,000 might attract buyers looking for a bargain. (NewsBTC)

2. Debate Over Market Peak Grows (October 23, 2025)

Summary: The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross, which compares short-term and long-term network value to transaction ratios, remains neutral and hasn’t reached the “overheated” levels seen at past market peaks. However, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index shows bearish signals, reflecting $6.9 billion in losses among new large investors (“whales”).
What this means: Mixed signals make it hard to say if the market has peaked. While on-chain data doesn’t confirm a top, losses among leveraged traders suggest caution in the near term. (NewsBTC)

3. Coinbase Pushes for AML Updates (October 17, 2025)

Summary: Coinbase has urged the U.S. Treasury Department to modernize anti-money laundering (AML) rules by using blockchain analytics, artificial intelligence, and decentralized identity systems. They propose regulatory sandboxes and safe harbors to encourage firms to adopt approved compliance tools.
What this means: These changes could lower compliance costs and make it easier for institutions to enter the crypto market. However, progress depends on legislative action after government shutdowns. (Bitcoin.com)

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s near-term outlook is a mix of bearish technical signals and positive long-term factors like regulatory innovation. With the NVT metric hinting at ongoing bullish potential and Coinbase pushing for growth-friendly policies, the question remains: will institutional investments offset cautious retail traders after the latest economic reports?

What is expected in the development of BTC?

Bitcoin’s future plans focus on growing its network, gaining support from big institutions, and improving its technology.

1. sBTC Launch (Q3 2025) – Introducing trustless Bitcoin-based decentralized finance (DeFi) through upgrades by Stacks.
2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (2026) – U.S. government efforts to officially hold Bitcoin as part of national reserves.
3. Botanix L2 Expansion (2026) – Adding smart contract capabilities compatible with Ethereum on Bitcoin’s network.
4. HIVE’s Mining Growth (2026) – Expanding Bitcoin mining using renewable energy to increase network security.
5. Post-Quantum Security – Preparing Bitcoin to resist future quantum computer threats.

Deep Dive

1. sBTC Launch (Q3 2025)

Overview: In the third quarter of 2025, Stacks rolled out “Satoshi Upgrades” that introduced sBTC, a version of Bitcoin that can be used in decentralized finance (DeFi) without needing trusted middlemen. This means Bitcoin holders can now earn returns by participating in liquidity pools and other DeFi activities (Stacks).
What this means: This is positive for Bitcoin’s usefulness, as it encourages holders to put their Bitcoin to work rather than just holding it. However, it depends on the stability of the system that links sBTC to actual Bitcoin and the incentives for miners and stakers to keep it secure.

2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (2026)

Overview: The U.S. government is working on legislation to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by 2026. This builds on an executive order from 2025 and includes ideas like federally chartered Bitcoin miners and collecting fees in Bitcoin (Bitget).
What this means: This could encourage more institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which is generally positive. However, there are risks related to political challenges and how smoothly the plan is implemented.

3. Botanix L2 Expansion (2026)

Overview: Botanix launched a Layer 2 solution for Bitcoin in July 2025 that supports Ethereum-compatible smart contracts with fast transaction times (5 seconds) and low fees (about $0.02). The 2026 plan aims to grow DeFi applications using protocols like GMX and Dolomite (Crypto.news).
What this means: This development is promising for Bitcoin’s ability to support smart contracts and DeFi, but its success depends on whether users prefer Bitcoin-based DeFi over established platforms like Ethereum.

4. HIVE’s Mining Growth (2026)

Overview: HIVE Digital plans to increase its Bitcoin mining power to over 35 exahashes per second (EH/s) by 2026. They also plan to grow their AI cloud services fivefold, all powered by hydroelectric energy (Simply Bitcoin).
What this means: This is good news for Bitcoin’s security since more mining power makes the network harder to attack. However, it depends on Bitcoin’s price staying strong enough to support these investments.

5. Post-Quantum Security

Overview: Google’s new 105-qubit quantum computer (called Willow) poses a potential threat to Bitcoin’s encryption. Developers are working on post-quantum cryptography to protect Bitcoin, but these upgrades might affect how well the network performs (Decrypt).
What this means: If not addressed quickly, this could be a serious risk for Bitcoin. On the other hand, successfully upgrading Bitcoin’s security could ensure its safety for the long term.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s roadmap is focused on improving scalability (with sBTC and Botanix), encouraging institutional use (through the U.S. Strategic Reserve), and enhancing security (against quantum threats). While there are technical and regulatory challenges ahead, these steps could help Bitcoin become a versatile and widely used digital asset. The big question remains: will Bitcoin’s Layer 2 solutions surpass Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance?

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What updates are there in the BTC code base?

Bitcoin’s software has undergone important policy changes and technical updates.

1. OP_RETURN Limit Removed (October 12, 2025) – Transactions can now carry much larger amounts of data, sparking debates about decentralization.
2. Fee Policy Changes (October 12, 2025) – Default transaction fees have been lowered to make Bitcoin cheaper to use but could lead to delays in confirming transactions.
3. Support for Older Versions Ends (October 12, 2025) – Older Bitcoin software versions are no longer supported to improve network security.

Deep Dive

1. OP_RETURN Limit Removed (October 12, 2025)

What happened: Bitcoin Core version 30.0 removed the previous 80-byte limit on OP_RETURN, a feature that lets users attach data to transactions. Now, transactions can include up to about 4 megabytes of data.

Why it matters: This change allows new uses like timestamping documents or creating decentralized IDs directly on the Bitcoin network. However, some worry it could lead to “blockchain bloat,” meaning the blockchain grows too large and harder to manage.

More details: Node operators (the computers that help run the Bitcoin network) can set their own limits, but the default is now 100,000 bytes. Critics say this might encourage storing large files like media, which could increase storage costs and make running a node more centralized. Supporters argue it reduces the need for riskier ways to embed data.

Bottom line: In the short term, this change is neutral because it depends on how many nodes accept larger data. Over time, if many transactions include big data, it could distract from Bitcoin’s main purpose as digital money and raise fees for everyday users.
(Source)

2. Fee Policy Changes (October 12, 2025)

What happened: Bitcoin Core v30.0 lowered the default fees for relaying and mining transactions. Relay fees dropped from 1 satoshi per virtual byte (sat/vB) to 0.1 sat/vB, and mining fees from 0.001 sat/vB.

Why it matters: Lower fees make small Bitcoin transactions more affordable, which could encourage more everyday use.

More details: For this to work well, most nodes and miners need to adopt the new fee settings. If they don’t, transactions with low fees might take longer to confirm. Popular wallets like Sparrow and Ledger Live haven’t updated their fee settings yet, which could cause confusion.

Bottom line: This update is positive for Bitcoin’s usability by lowering costs, but users should watch for possible delays or fee fluctuations. Some nodes resisting the change might slow down the network.
(Source)

3. Support for Older Versions Ends (October 12, 2025)

What happened: Bitcoin Core v30.0 no longer supports versions 27.x and earlier. Node operators must upgrade to stay secure and compatible.

Why it matters: About 12% of nodes still run these older versions. If they don’t upgrade, they risk security issues and missing out on new blocks, which can hurt the network.

More details: This update helps keep the Bitcoin code clean and secure but has pushed some users toward alternative software like Bitcoin Knots, which enforces stricter rules on data use.

Bottom line: In the short term, this may reduce decentralization because some smaller operators might struggle with the upgrade. But in the long run, it strengthens the network by reducing outdated code.
(Source)

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s latest updates focus on making the network more flexible and affordable but challenge its core identity as purely digital money. Will node operators support new data-heavy uses, or will alternatives like Bitcoin Knots attract those wanting to keep Bitcoin focused on money? The coming months will reveal which path the community chooses.

Why did the price of BTC go up?

Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1.52% to $110,016.74 in the last 24 hours, slightly outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market, which rose 1.17%. This movement comes amid mixed signals:

1. ETF inflows bounce back – $335.4 million in net inflows this week helped ease fears of a market sell-off.
2. Technical support remains strong – Bitcoin held steady between $107,000 and $108,000 despite some bearish trading indicators.
3. Institutional adoption grows – Kraken’s $5 billion in tokenized stock trading shows increasing involvement from traditional financial institutions.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Demand Stabilizes (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $335.4 million in net inflows this week, reversing three days of outflows caused by concerns over tariffs (Cointelegraph). However, overall flows remain fragile, with $1.23 billion withdrawn between October 13 and 17.
What this means: Renewed buying from institutional investors helped reduce immediate selling pressure, but demand is still inconsistent compared to the record inflows seen in the second quarter of 2025. Experts caution that Bitcoin could experience a prolonged period of sideways trading if ETF inflows weaken again.

2. Critical Technical Levels Hold (Bullish)

Overview: Bitcoin bounced back above its key pivot point at $107,860 and its 7-day moving average of $108,181, indicating short-term positive momentum. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -817.61 remain neutral to bearish.
What this means: Buyers successfully defended the $107,000 to $108,000 range, which is an important psychological support level linked to lows seen in August. If Bitcoin can break and hold above $113,000 (the 50-day moving average), it could trigger renewed upward momentum.

3. Kraken’s Growth Fuels Optimism (Bullish)

Overview: Kraken’s revenue for the third quarter jumped 114% year-over-year to $648 million, driven by $5 billion in tokenized stock trading and crypto products similar to ETFs (Finance Magnates).
What this means: The growing integration of traditional finance with crypto helps reduce the stigma around digital assets and attracts investment from stock market participants. However, since Kraken focuses mainly outside the U.S., this growth has a limited direct effect on Bitcoin demand.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent recovery shows a mix of cautious institutional interest and technical strength, but risks remain from broader economic issues like tariffs and ETF market volatility. Key factors to watch: Can Bitcoin maintain support above $108,000 and attract more than $500 million in daily ETF inflows to keep the momentum going?