Why did the price of XMR go up?

Monero (XMR) increased by 1.78% in the past 24 hours, continuing a strong 7-day rally of nearly 15%. This growth is driven by positive technical signals, improved network security after a mining threat from Qubic, and growing demand for privacy as darknet markets shift.

1. Technical Breakout Confirmed – Indicators like MACD and RSI show strong upward momentum
2. Security Resilience – The community successfully countered Qubic’s attempt to centralize mining
3. Darknet Demand – Changes in darknet markets are boosting Monero’s use for private transactions

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Positive Signs)

Overview:
Monero’s price has moved above important resistance points. The MACD indicator is at +4.89, signaling a bullish trend, and the RSI is at 69.6, close to overbought but not yet showing signs of slowing down. The 7-day moving average ($283.94) has crossed above the 30-day moving average ($271.60), confirming a short-term upward trend.

What this means:
Traders are optimistic, pushing XMR toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $294.59. If the price stays above $303.71, it could trigger automated buying that targets $324.62.

What to watch:
If the price falls below $285, it could signal the end of this bullish trend.

2. Network Security Recovery (Mixed Effects)

Overview:
In August 2025, Qubic—a mining pool connected to IOTA’s co-founder—tried to control over 33% of Monero’s mining power, raising concerns about centralization. However, decentralized mining through P2Pool increased to over 15% by mid-September, reducing this risk.

What this means:
Although this caused some exchanges like Kraken to temporarily pause deposits, the Monero community’s response helped restore confidence. The network’s mining power has grown by 12% since September 1, showing strong miner support.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on Qubic’s share of mining power, which was last reported at 35% on August 7. A continued drop would confirm progress toward decentralization.

3. Darknet Market Dynamics (Positive Impact)

Overview:
The closure of major darknet markets like Archetyp and Abacus in August 2025 pushed users to smaller platforms that often use Monero for private transactions. XMR’s 24-hour trading volume jumped 28.45% to $144 million, indicating increased demand.

What this means:
Monero remains the top choice for privacy-focused transactions. According to TRM Labs, $300–400 million in Monero-related darknet activity occurred in 2025. Regulatory crackdowns have ironically strengthened Monero’s role in privacy.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price gains are supported by strong technical trends, improved network security, and its essential role in privacy-focused transactions. While risks remain from Qubic’s mining attempts and regulatory scrutiny like the EU’s DAC8, Monero’s 30-day performance (+19.43%) far outpaces the broader crypto market (+1.33%), highlighting its unique value.

Key watch: Can Monero maintain its price above $300 as interest in derivatives grows (+6.95% in 24 hours)?

What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero’s price is caught between growing demand for privacy and serious challenges that could impact its future.

1. Mining Centralization Risk – Qubic’s attempt to control over half of Monero’s mining power threatens the network’s security (negative).
2. FCMP++ Upgrade – A planned update in 2025 will improve Monero’s privacy and protect it against future quantum computer threats (positive).
3. Regulatory Pressure – Ongoing risks of being removed from cryptocurrency exchanges due to government regulations (negative).

Deep Dive

1. Mining Centralization & Qubic’s 51% Experiment (Negative)

Overview:
Qubic, a mining group led by Sergey Ivancheglo (co-founder of IOTA), has been trying since July 2025 to control a large portion of Monero’s mining power. By August, they controlled 38%. Their business model uses profits from mining Monero (XMR) to buy and burn their own QUBIC tokens, encouraging more miners to join them. If Qubic gains majority control, it could lead to problems like censorship, double-spending, and weakening Monero’s privacy features.

What this means:
If Qubic reaches 51% control, it could damage trust in Monero’s security, causing investors to sell. Some exchanges, like Kraken, already paused Monero deposits during this event. If Qubic keeps growing, Monero’s price might fall back to lows seen in June around $258 (Cointelegraph).

2. FCMP++ Protocol Upgrade (Positive)

Overview:
Monero plans to release the Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) upgrade by late 2025. This update will make Monero more resistant to attacks from future quantum computers and improve transaction privacy. It aims to keep Monero ahead as the top privacy-focused cryptocurrency, making it harder for blockchain analysis companies like Chainalysis to track transactions.

What this means:
If the upgrade goes smoothly, it could renew interest from institutional investors and push Monero’s price toward $350–$420, matching some 2026 price predictions (Bitrue). However, any delays or technical issues could slow down this progress.

3. Regulatory Pressure & Exchange Delistings (Negative)

Overview:
Monero faces ongoing regulatory challenges. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation may ban privacy coins like Monero. Recently, exchanges such as MEXC and HTX have removed Monero, reducing its trading liquidity. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also maintains a tough stance on privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.

What this means:
More exchange delistings could lower trading volume and make it harder for the market to determine Monero’s true value. For example, Monero’s 30-day price volatility is 5.43%, which is lower than competitors like Zcash, indicating cautious investor sentiment (CoinMarketCap).

Conclusion

Monero’s future depends on balancing strong technology upgrades like FCMP++ with the risks posed by mining centralization and regulatory crackdowns. While the upcoming upgrade could spark a price rally above $400 in 2026, Qubic’s growing mining power and government policies remain significant threats. The key question is whether Monero’s community-driven P2Pool mining can counter Qubic’s dominance before the next halving event.

What are people saying about XMR?

Monero’s strong privacy features remain intact, but recent mining controversies and price fluctuations are keeping the community engaged. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Qubic’s attempt to control over half of the mining power causes concern
2. Technical chart patterns suggest a possible price increase
3. Long-term price predictions vary widely, from $500 to nearly $6,000

In-Depth Look

1. @Qubic: Risk of Mining Power Concentration bearish

"We’re gathering a critical mass of mining power through incentives"
– @Qubic (23.1K followers · 412K impressions · 2025-07-27 16:40 UTC)
See original post
What this means: Qubic is openly trying to control a large portion of Monero’s mining power, reaching up to 38%. This raises concerns about the security of the network and led to some exchanges, like Kraken, temporarily stopping Monero deposits on August 17.

2. CoinMarketCap Community: Positive Technical Signal bullish

"A falling wedge breakout could push the price to $276–$280"
– CoinMarketCap analysis (5.8M followers · 146K impressions · 2025-05-04 10:20 UTC)
See original post
What this means: A specific chart pattern called a “falling wedge” has formed near the $269 price level. If the price breaks out of this pattern with increased trading volume, it could indicate a short-term price increase.

3. Cryptomus: Long-Term Price Predictions Vary mixed

"Conservative estimate: $610; Bullish estimate: $5,828 by 2030"
– Cryptopolitan panel via Cryptomus (2.1M followers · 89K impressions · 2025-02-09 13:37 UTC)
See original post
What this means: Experts have very different views on Monero’s future price. Demand for privacy could lead to significant growth, but regulatory actions against privacy-focused cryptocurrencies remain a major risk.

Conclusion

The outlook for Monero is mixed. On one hand, technical indicators suggest potential price gains. On the other, concerns about mining power becoming too centralized pose risks to the network’s security. After Qubic’s attempt to control over half the mining power, Monero’s price bounced back 21% within 48 hours following Kraken’s deposit freeze. Keep an eye on the P2Pool mining share, currently at 15%, as a key sign of how decentralized the mining community remains. The big question is whether Monero’s commitment to privacy can overcome the economic pressures that encourage mining consolidation.

What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is dealing with security challenges and market changes while preparing for potential regulatory hurdles. Here are the key updates:

1. Qubic Mining Dominance (August 4, 2025) – Qubic’s rapid growth in mining power raised concerns about a possible 51% attack.
2. Kraken Pauses XMR Deposits (August 17, 2025) – The exchange temporarily stopped Monero deposits due to security worries.
3. GMX Lists XMR/USD (June 26, 2025) – Monero is now available with up to 100x leverage on a decentralized trading platform.

In-Depth Look

1. Qubic Mining Dominance (August 4, 2025)

What happened:
Qubic, a mining pool led by IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, offered miners rewards in QUBIC tokens to mine Monero. By early August, Qubic controlled about 35% of Monero’s mining power, sparking fears that they could potentially control the network and carry out a 51% attack.

Why it matters:
When one group controls too much mining power, it threatens the security of the network. This could allow bad actors to reverse transactions or double-spend coins. In response, Monero’s community shifted mining efforts to smaller pools like P2Pool, reducing Qubic’s share back to around 35% by mid-August. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Kraken Pauses XMR Deposits (August 17, 2025)

What happened:
Following the concerns about Qubic’s mining dominance, Kraken temporarily stopped accepting Monero deposits to protect users from potential chain reorganizations. During this time, Monero’s price dropped 19% but later recovered to $280 once Kraken allowed withdrawals again.

Why it matters:
This event showed that Monero’s network can be vulnerable when mining power is concentrated. However, it also demonstrated the community’s ability to respond quickly. Privacy-focused coins like Monero still face ongoing regulatory scrutiny, which adds uncertainty. (Coinspeaker)

3. GMX Lists XMR/USD (June 26, 2025)

What happened:
The decentralized exchange GMX introduced trading for Monero against the US dollar with up to 100 times leverage, increasing Monero’s trading options and liquidity.

Why it matters:
This move is generally positive for Monero, as it expands its use in decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the availability of high leverage can lead to bigger price swings, especially given the current security concerns. (GMX)

Conclusion

Monero is balancing the risks of mining centralization with the strength of its community’s efforts to keep the network secure. At the same time, regulatory pressures on privacy coins continue to create uncertainty. The big question remains: Can Monero’s push for decentralized mining overcome the financial incentives that encourage mining pool dominance?

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero is making important updates to improve privacy, security, and performance:

1. Seraphis Codebase & Jamtis Wallet (2025) – A major redesign of how transactions work to boost privacy and make the wallet easier to use.
2. Bulletproofs++ (2025) – Smaller transaction sizes and faster verification to handle more activity on the network.
3. FCMP++ Integration (Q4 2025) – Adding protections against future quantum computers to keep past transactions safe.

Deep Dive

1. Seraphis Codebase & Jamtis Wallet (2025)

What it is: Seraphis is a new system replacing Monero’s current transaction method, RingCT. It focuses on stronger privacy and more flexibility. Along with Jamtis, a new wallet design, it makes managing addresses simpler and reduces mistakes. This upgrade is designed to keep Monero secure against new ways people analyze blockchain data.
Why it matters: This is good news for Monero’s long-term use because it strengthens fungibility—meaning each coin is truly interchangeable and private. However, switching to this new system might slow down adoption for a while as users and developers adjust.

2. Bulletproofs++ (2025)

What it is: This is an improved version of Monero’s current Bulletproofs technology. It reduces transaction sizes by about 10–15% and speeds up the process of verifying transactions. This helps the network handle more transactions efficiently as it grows (Monero Roadmap).
Why it matters: This improvement supports wider use of Monero by making transactions faster and cheaper. But since other privacy coins like Zcash have similar features, it may not give Monero a big competitive edge.

3. FCMP++ Integration (Q4 2025)

What it is: Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) add a layer of protection against future quantum computers, which could potentially break current cryptographic security. This upgrade will secure older transactions retroactively (Community Funding Update).
Why it matters: This builds confidence among institutional users who worry about long-term security. However, if problems arise during testing, especially with older wallets, it could cause short-term issues.

Conclusion

Monero’s upcoming upgrades focus on keeping privacy strong (Seraphis and FCMP++) and improving scalability (Bulletproofs++). These changes aim to maintain Monero’s position as a top privacy-focused cryptocurrency. However, challenges like mining centralization by groups such as Qubic could threaten the network’s fairness. It remains to be seen if these technical improvements can keep pace with such external risks.

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero's software is actively being improved with updates that boost privacy and security.

1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a vulnerability involving untrusted remote nodes.
2. FCMP++ Integration Proposal (September 7, 2025) – Suggested upgrade to protect transactions against future quantum computer threats.
3. Funded Ecosystem Tools (July 25, 2025) – New browser wallet and payment plugins are in development to make Monero easier to use.

Deep Dive

1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025)

What happened: A serious privacy issue was fixed where bad actors controlling remote nodes could potentially identify users.

The update makes Monero’s wallets more secure by adding stronger checks when connecting to outside nodes. This reduces the chance of leaking user information like IP addresses or transaction timing.

Why it matters: This strengthens Monero’s main promise—keeping transactions private and untraceable. Users can trust the network more knowing this risk is addressed.
(Source)

2. FCMP++ Integration Proposal (September 7, 2025)

What happened: Developers proposed adding Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++), a new cryptographic method to protect transaction privacy even further.

FCMP++ allows verifying transactions without revealing details, which helps defend against future quantum computer attacks and makes audits easier for businesses.

Why it matters: This is a positive step for Monero’s future, though it’s still just a proposal. If implemented, it could keep Monero ahead in privacy technology, but it might take time to roll out.
(Source)

3. Funded Ecosystem Tools (July 25, 2025)

What happened: Community funding supported six projects, including a browser-based wallet and a plugin for BTCPay Server (a popular payment processor).

Developers are working to make Monero easier to use. The browser wallet will let users send and receive Monero directly in their web browser, while the BTCPay plugin helps merchants accept Monero alongside Bitcoin.

Why it matters: These tools make Monero more practical for everyday use, encouraging more people and businesses to adopt it. This could increase demand and help offset challenges like exchange delistings.
(Source)

Conclusion

Monero’s recent updates focus on strengthening privacy, preparing for future quantum threats, and making the ecosystem more accessible. These improvements help protect users against technical risks and regulatory challenges.

However, there is a concern about mining centralization, as one miner (Qubic) reached 51% of the network’s computing power in August 2025, which could affect decentralization. The new tools and upgrades may help balance this risk by encouraging wider adoption and participation.