Why did the price of XMR go up?

Monero (XMR) increased by 2.3% to $296.05 over the past 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which was mostly flat (-0.2%). This gain extends Monero’s monthly rise to 13%. The main reasons behind this growth are:

1. Technical Breakout – Buyers defended the $285 support level and are aiming for resistance at $320.
2. Privacy Coin Momentum – A strong 75% monthly rally in rival Zcash brought attention to Monero’s undervalued position.
3. Demand for Risk Protection – Investors moved toward privacy-focused assets amid concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Strength (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Monero recently bounced back above the important $285–$290 support range. This area aligns with its 200-day moving average ($276.60) and a key Fibonacci retracement level ($291.84), which helped spark short-term buying interest.

What this means:

• Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 and a bullish crossover in the MACD suggest there’s room for Monero’s price to rise before it becomes overbought.
• If Monero breaks above $309.76 (another Fibonacci level), it could gain momentum toward the next resistance at $325.

What to watch:

• Closing prices consistently above $300 would confirm continued upward movement.

2. Privacy Sector Rotation (Mixed Signals)

Overview:
Zcash (ZEC) saw a 75% price jump in September, driven by new privacy tools that work across different blockchains. This surge attracted attention to privacy coins like Monero. However, Zcash’s trading volume ($215 million) briefly exceeded Monero’s ($141 million), showing some competition between the two.

What this means:

• Over the past year, Monero has gained 92%, compared to Zcash’s 75%, indicating that many investors still prefer Monero’s established privacy technology.
• Google searches for “privacy coins” increased by 40% month-over-month, showing growing interest from everyday investors.

3. Macro Uncertainty (Neutral to Positive)

Overview:
On September 30, crypto markets fell about 1% as fears of a U.S. government shutdown caused $354 million in liquidations. Monero’s price held up better than many assets because it tends to move opposite traditional risk markets.

What this means:

• Privacy coins like Monero often serve as a “safe haven” during times of geopolitical uncertainty because they resist censorship.
• Inflows into spot ETFs for Ethereum ($547 million) and Bitcoin ($522 million) suggest renewed investor interest in crypto, which could also benefit altcoins like Monero.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price increase reflects strong technical support, growing interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, and its role as a hedge during uncertain times. While Zcash’s recent rally shows competition in the privacy coin space, Monero’s $5.46 billion market cap and proven privacy features keep it in a leading position.

Key point to watch: Can Monero close September above $300 and aim for its 2025 high of $415? Also, keep an eye on Bitcoin’s support level at $113,000—if it breaks down, it could put pressure on altcoins like Monero.

What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero is navigating a competitive and rapidly changing privacy landscape.

1. Network Security Risks – A recent 51% attack raised concerns about trust (Qubic, Aug 2025)
2. Technology Upgrades – A new quantum-resistant upgrade called FCMP++ is in development (funded by CCS)
3. Competitive Pressure – Zcash’s 75% price jump challenges Monero’s lead (with Zashi Cross Pay launch)

In-Depth Look

1. Network Security Risks (Negative Impact)

What happened:
In August 2025, the Qubic mining pool executed a 51% attack on Monero’s network, causing 18-block reorganizations. This led Kraken, a major exchange, to temporarily freeze Monero (XMR) deposits. Although the attack was countered with DDoS protections, concerns remain about mining centralization (CoinMarketCap). After the attack, Monero’s mining power (hashrate) dropped 22%, but it’s still 89% higher than last year.

Why it matters:
Repeated attacks like this could shake confidence in Monero’s core promise of secure, unchangeable transactions. On the bright side, the community is actively working on defenses like “Publish and Perish” and has raised a record $925,000 in 2025 for security improvements (Coinspeaker).

2. Technology Upgrades (Positive Impact)

What’s new:
Monero is integrating Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++), a new technology designed to replace ring signatures with quantum-resistant cryptography. This upgrade will also enhance transaction privacy. This follows the May 2025 rollout of the Seraphis protocol, which reduced typical transaction size by 25% (Monero Blog).

Why it matters:
If successful, FCMP++ could make Monero the most future-proof privacy coin, attracting institutional investors concerned about quantum computing threats. Past upgrades like CLSAG in 2020 led to a 71% increase in transaction fees year-over-year, even as individual transaction costs dropped.

3. Competitive Pressure (Mixed Impact)

Current situation:
Zcash (ZEC) surged 75% in September to $69, driven by the launch of Zashi Cross Pay, a cross-chain privacy tool powered by NEAR. Zcash’s daily trading volume has surpassed Monero’s ($215 million vs. $139 million). However, Monero still holds a 4.8 times larger market cap (Cryptopotato).

Why it matters:
Zcash’s rise shows strong demand for privacy coins that work across different blockchains. Still, Monero’s strong track record of resisting chain analysis (it was not mentioned in a 113-page Chainalysis crime report) keeps it firmly positioned as “digital cash.” Progress on atomic swaps between Ethereum and Bitcoin could help Monero stay competitive in cross-chain functionality.

Conclusion

Monero’s price will depend on how well it balances its reputation for top-tier privacy with the need for stronger security and better interoperability. The $290 support level aligns with its 200-day moving average, suggesting a possible pause before FCMP++ drives momentum. However, falling below $272 (a key Fibonacci support) could lead to retesting August’s lows. The big question remains: can Monero’s decentralized development community keep pace with the faster, centralized rollouts from competitors?

What are people saying about XMR?

The Monero (XMR) community is divided between hopeful price movements and concerns about mining centralization. Here’s the latest:

1. A falling wedge pattern could push prices above $280
2. Qubic’s control over mining caused worries about network security
3. Price predictions for 2030 vary widely, from $423 to $5,828

In-Depth Look

1. Technical Setup Points to Possible Price Rise

According to @GMX_IO, Monero is nearing a key support level around $269. If it breaks above $276–$280 with strong trading volume, it could signal a price increase.
See the original post
What this means: A falling wedge is a chart pattern that often leads to prices going up. However, traders want to see more buying activity (volume) to confirm this move. This is a positive sign for Monero’s price.

2. Mining Concentration Raises Red Flags

@Qubic reported that Qubic mined 80% of Monero blocks in just two hours, causing some disruptions in the blockchain.
See the original post
What this means: When one miner or group controls too much of the mining power, it threatens the network’s security and decentralization. For privacy-focused coins like Monero, decentralization is very important, so this news is seen as negative.

3. Long-Term Price Predictions Are Uncertain

CoinPedia shared forecasts for Monero’s price in 2030, ranging from $423 if regulations tighten, up to $5,828 if privacy features become widely adopted.
See the original post
What this means: Experts are divided. While Monero’s technology is strong, future government rules could impact its value significantly.

Summary

Overall, opinions on Monero’s future are mixed. Technical charts suggest a possible breakout above $280, but concerns about mining centralization, especially Qubic’s recent dominance (controlling 38% of the mining power), remain a worry. Keep an eye on the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $297—breaking above this level could boost confidence, while falling short might bring decentralization issues back into focus.

What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is showing strong technical resilience while facing increasing competition. It balances positive price momentum with concerns about network security. Here are the latest updates:

1. XMR Targets $320 Breakout (September 30, 2025) – The price is holding steady at $285 support, suggesting a possible upward reversal.
2. Zcash Challenges Monero’s Lead (September 30, 2025) – Zcash (ZEC) surged 75% this month, putting pressure on Monero’s position as the top privacy coin.
3. Monero Recovers After Network Disruption (September 25, 2025) – The network stabilized following an unusual 18-block reorganization event.

Deep Dive

1. XMR Targets $320 Breakout (September 30, 2025)

Overview: Monero’s price bounced back 30% from its August lows, holding firm at $285 and testing the important $320 resistance level. If it breaks above $320, the next target could be $415, which was a previous high. If it fails, the price might fall to around $180. Daily technical indicators show positive momentum, but weekly charts are still uncertain.
What this means: Closing above $320 consistently would confirm a positive trend, attracting traders looking to capitalize on momentum. However, Monero’s low transaction fees and moderate daily activity (about 30,000 transactions) limit natural demand growth. (CCN)

2. Zcash Challenges Monero’s Lead (September 30, 2025)

Overview: Zcash (ZEC) saw a 75% price increase in September and surpassed Monero in daily trading volume ($215 million vs. $128 million). This surge is driven by innovations like Zashi CrossPay, which enables private transactions across different blockchains, and growing institutional interest in privacy technologies.
What this means: Zcash’s rise shows increasing demand for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. However, Monero still benefits from a strong network with a high hash rate (6.33 GH/s) and its focus on fungibility, meaning each coin is indistinguishable from another. Still, Monero’s price has underperformed over the past 90 days (-9.6%) compared to Zcash’s strong gains (+72%), indicating a shift in investor interest. (Cryptopotato)

3. Monero Recovers After Network Disruption (September 25, 2025)

Overview: After an attack on September 15 caused an 18-block reorganization—effectively reversing 36 minutes of transactions and invalidating 118 transactions—Monero’s price stabilized around $294. The community quickly raised $1 million through crowdfunding to fund upgrades like FCMP++, which aims to protect against future quantum computing threats.
What this means: The event revealed vulnerabilities related to mining power concentration, as one mining pool briefly controlled 33% of the network’s hash rate. However, the swift community response and planned protocol improvements have restored confidence. Exchanges such as Kraken have increased security by requiring 720 confirmations for XMR deposits. (Gate.io)

Conclusion

Monero’s strong technical foundation and active development efforts help balance the momentum Zcash has gained, along with ongoing security concerns. With privacy interest at an all-time high based on Google search trends, Monero’s ability to maintain support at $285 and implement quantum-resistant upgrades will be key to its future. The question remains: will Monero’s proven privacy technology outperform Zcash’s growing institutional appeal in the last quarter of 2025?

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero’s development is moving forward with these key updates:

1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs Integration (Q4 2025) – Boosting protection against future quantum computers and enhancing privacy with FCMP++.
2. Seraphis & Jamtis Protocol Upgrade (2026) – Redesigning transaction processes to make them faster and more scalable.
3. Bulletproofs++ Implementation (No Date) – Making transactions smaller and quicker to verify.

In-Depth Look

1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs Integration (Q4 2025)

What it is:
Monero’s community is funding a project called FCMP++ that aims to improve security against quantum computers by replacing older cryptographic methods with newer, stronger ones. This upgrade will let users confirm the entire history of transactions without revealing private information. Justin Berman is leading the development, and the work is currently being added to Monero’s software (Monero Community Crowdfunding System).

Why it matters:
This is good news for Monero (XMR) because it strengthens its reputation as the most private cryptocurrency and prepares it for future quantum threats. However, delays in security checks or bugs could slow down how quickly this upgrade is adopted.

2. Seraphis & Jamtis Protocol Upgrade (2026)

What it is:
Seraphis is a new way to organize transactions in a modular fashion, while Jamtis replaces the current stealth address system with a new 64-character payment ID. Together, these changes aim to reduce transaction sizes by about 30% and make wallets easier to use. The upgrade is still in early testing, and community developers are inviting others to help out (Monero Blog).

Why it matters:
This update could attract more users by making transactions more efficient, which is positive for XMR. But since it’s a multi-year project relying on volunteer developers, there’s some risk it might take longer than expected or face challenges.

3. Bulletproofs++ Implementation (No Date)

What it is:
Bulletproofs++ is an improved version of Monero’s current Bulletproofs technology. It aims to shrink transaction sizes from about 1.5 KB to 1 KB and speed up verification by 20%. The technology is still being researched and has not yet undergone formal peer review (Monero Roadmap).

Why it matters:
Smaller, faster transactions mean lower fees and better scalability, which is a positive for XMR. However, since there’s no set timeline, these benefits might come later than similar improvements from other cryptocurrencies.

Conclusion

Monero’s roadmap focuses on strengthening privacy against future quantum threats, improving transaction efficiency, and making the system easier to use. These efforts help maintain Monero’s position as the leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency. However, challenges like long development times, dependence on community funding, mining centralization (with Qubic controlling 38% of the network’s mining power), and increasing regulatory pressure could impact progress. How Monero balances innovation with security will be key to its future success.

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero’s software is actively being improved with a focus on security and privacy.

1. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a vulnerability that could expose user data through malicious network nodes.
2. CLI/GUI Update (July 30, 2025) – The “Fluorine Fermi” release improved wallet and node performance.
3. July Bug Fixes (July 25, 2025) – Fixed stability issues in the network and software components.

Deep Dive

1. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025)

Overview: This update fixed a serious privacy issue where bad actors running remote nodes could figure out details about users’ transactions. If you connected to untrusted nodes, your transaction information might have been at risk.

The fix added stricter checks on transaction data shared between nodes, stopping attackers from linking transactions to specific wallets. This update strengthens Monero’s main promise: keeping transactions private and untraceable.

What this means: This is good news for Monero. It boosts trust in Monero as one of the most private cryptocurrencies available. Users can now connect to remote nodes with greater confidence that their anonymity is protected.
(Source)

2. CLI/GUI Update (July 30, 2025)

Overview: The “Fluorine Fermi” update made the wallet and node software run more efficiently. It reduced the amount of computer power and memory needed.

Key improvements included processing blockchain data in parallel, which speeds up syncing when you first set up your wallet. The update also improved how large groups of transactions are handled. The graphical user interface (GUI) now shows clearer status updates for multisignature transactions (transactions requiring multiple approvals).

What this means: This update is mostly neutral for Monero’s overall network. It makes the software easier and faster to use but doesn’t change how the network operates. It shows ongoing development and improvements for users.
(Source)

3. July Bug Fixes (July 25, 2025)

Overview: This smaller update fixed crashes in the Monero software during times of heavy network traffic and corrected rare errors in reading blockchain data.

It also improved how quickly nodes find each other on the network, which helps protect against denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks that try to overwhelm the system. These fixes were made possible by community funding and contributions from developers like selsta and jeffro256.

What this means: This is positive for Monero. Regular maintenance and bug fixes show a strong and active developer community. Improving stability lowers the risk of problems for people running nodes and cryptocurrency exchanges.
(Source)

Conclusion

Monero’s recent updates focus on strengthening security and improving usability, which are essential for a privacy-focused cryptocurrency. These improvements come at a time when Monero faces challenges like mining dominance from competitors such as Qubic. While the software updates are proactive, events like the 18-block reorganization in September 2025 remind us that risks remain. The key question is how Monero’s developers will continue balancing innovation with protecting the network from economic attacks.