Why did the price of ATOM go up?
Cosmos (ATOM) increased by 1.17% in the last 24 hours, slightly outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 0.65%. Although ATOM is still down 8.5% over the past week, three main factors contributed to this recent rise:
- Excitement around Cosmoverse 2025 – Positive outlook ahead of the conference from October 30 to November 1
- Technical rebound – Indicators showed ATOM was oversold and found support at key price levels
- Ecosystem growth – Important partnerships like Sei Network with Chainlink and growing interest from institutions
Deep Dive
1. Cosmoverse 2025 Hype (Positive Influence)
Overview:
The Cosmoverse 2025 conference will take place in Split, Croatia, from October 30 to November 1. It will bring together major players in the Cosmos ecosystem, including leaders from Interchain Labs and advisors from the European Central Bank. Past Cosmos events have often sparked short-term price increases as developers reveal new upgrades, such as cross-chain AI features and Bitcoin compatibility.
What this means:
Traders often buy in anticipation of announcements at big events, especially since ATOM’s price dropped about 90% from its peak in 2021. The conference’s focus on real-world asset tokenization and institutional adoption fits well with the main trends in crypto for 2025.
What to watch:
Look for announcements about new partnerships or technical improvements during or after the conference.
2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
ATOM recently tested a key support level at $4.16, based on the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (a common technical analysis tool), and bounced back. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved out of oversold territory, indicating less selling pressure, and the MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is slowing down.
What this means:
Many traders saw the $4.10–$4.16 price range as a good buying opportunity. However, there is resistance ahead near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4.48, which could limit further gains. Trading volume is still 23% below average, indicating that the recent price increase may not be strongly supported yet.
Key level to watch:
If ATOM closes above $4.42 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement), it could signal a potential trend reversal.
3. Ecosystem Growth vs. Liquidity Fragmentation (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
The Cosmos SDK (software development kit) now supports Binance Chain, Cronos, and OKC, which together handled $1.52 trillion in derivatives trading volume in the third quarter of 2025. However, some critics point out that liquidity is spread out across more than 150 Cosmos-based blockchains, which can reduce ATOM’s usefulness.
What this means:
New integrations, like Sei Network’s use of Chainlink Data Streams to track on-chain GDP, show Cosmos’ growing role in decentralized finance (DeFi) for institutions. Still, ATOM doesn’t directly earn fees from activity on these networks, which limits its potential gains compared to other tokens like ETH or SOL.
Conclusion
ATOM’s recent 24-hour price increase reflects a mix of excitement around upcoming events and technical buying. However, challenges remain, such as fragmented liquidity and a significant price drop from its all-time high. The rally lacks strong trading volume and faces resistance between $4.42 and $4.53.
What to watch: Will Cosmoverse 2025 deliver real solutions to improve interoperability and increase ATOM’s value? If not, the price could fall back to its 2025 low of $3.96.
What could affect the price of ATOM?
ATOM’s price depends on key factors like changes in its ecosystem, debates over inflation, and potential regulatory challenges.
- Tokenomics Changes – Plans to lower staking rewards from 10% to 2-4% could either weaken network security or encourage long-term holding.
- Interchain Growth – The Cosmoverse 2025 event (Oct 30) will highlight progress on Interchain Security, but competition from projects like Sei moving to Ethereum could impact ATOM’s market share.
- Regulatory Risks – The SEC lawsuit against Coinbase could lead to ATOM being delisted if it’s classified as a security, as explained in SEC v. Coinbase.
Deep Dive
1. Inflation & Staking Rewards Debate (Mixed to Bearish Impact)
Overview: Some in the Cosmos community want to reduce ATOM’s inflation rate from 7-10% down to 2-4%, similar to Ethereum’s rate. They argue that high inflation lowers the token’s value and discourages big investors (forum post). However, critics worry that cutting rewards too quickly might cause validators to leave, which could hurt network security.
What this means: Lower inflation might make ATOM more scarce and valuable over time, but in the short term, some holders might sell their tokens instead of staking them, putting downward pressure on the price. A similar attempt in 2022 (ATOM 2.0) led to a 60% price drop.
2. Regulatory Risks (Bearish Impact)
Overview: The SEC is suing Coinbase, claiming some tokens, including ATOM, are unregistered securities. If the court agrees, U.S. exchanges like Coinbase may have to remove ATOM, similar to how Binance delisted XMR in 2024, which caused a 34% price drop in just two days.
What this means: This could cause a sudden drop in liquidity since about 23% of ATOM’s $96 million daily trading volume comes from U.S. exchanges. However, trading outside the U.S., such as on Upbit (which accounts for 18% of volume), might help soften the impact.
3. Interchain Security & Cosmoverse Event (Bullish Catalyst)
Overview: The upcoming Cosmoverse conference in Croatia (Oct-Nov) will showcase Interchain Security version 2 (ICS). This technology allows ATOM validators to secure other blockchains, like Noble, which handles USDC transactions. If successful, this could boost ATOM’s value similarly to Ethereum’s EigenLayer rally in 2024, which saw an 82% price increase.
What this means: If three or more major blockchains adopt ICS by the end of 2025, ATOM stakers could start earning fees from these chains, creating a new revenue stream that hasn’t existed since 2021.
Conclusion
ATOM’s future depends on balancing efforts to reduce inflation with the risk of regulatory action. In the short term, watch the $4.16 price level—if it breaks, the price might fall back to the 2024 low of $3.40. Over the long term, success at Cosmoverse or a positive outcome in the SEC lawsuit could revive confidence in ATOM as the “Internet of Blockchains.”
Key question: Will the upcoming Q4 votes on inflation and staking rewards stabilize ATOM’s economics before trading volume dries up?
What are people saying about ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) traders are divided between hoping for a price breakout and testing key support levels, while recent developments in the ecosystem are creating cautious optimism. Here’s what’s trending:
- Technical traders see the $4.35–$4.40 range as a critical support level 🎯
- A $300 million Ethereum treasury plan is attracting institutional interest 💼
- A triangle consolidation pattern signals potential 30% price swings ⚠️
- Long-term investors target prices between $18 and $56 by 2030 🚀
Deep Dive
1. Triangle Apex Nears – 30% Move Expected ⚠️
According to @ali_charts, Cosmos (ATOM) is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is almost at its apex. This pattern often leads to a significant price move, potentially around 30%.
- A close above $4.85 would suggest a bullish breakout.
- A close below $4.30 would indicate a bearish breakdown.
This week could see increased price volatility as traders watch these levels closely.
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2. $300 Million Ethereum Treasury Plan 💼
Cosmos Health recently announced a $300 million investment plan involving Ethereum, which caused ATOM’s price to jump about 3% on August 7, 2025. Institutional investors have been buying around the $4.29 support level during periods of high trading volume.
This move supports the idea that Cosmos is strengthening its role in cross-chain technology, connecting different blockchain networks. However, there are still risks involved in executing this plan successfully.
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3. Long-Term Price Targets: $18 to $56 by 2030 🚀
Technical analysis from Gate.io highlights a double-bottom pattern near $3.40, which could lead to a rally reaching $12–$15 in 2026, assuming Bitcoin’s market cycle supports it. Looking further ahead, a price target of $56 by 2030 is based on Cosmos becoming a leading standard for blockchain interoperability.
This outlook depends heavily on adoption factors like increased transaction activity through the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol and the addition of new blockchain zones.
Source
4. Support Zone Battleground 🎯
Analysis from the CoinMarketCap Community shows that ATOM is currently testing the $4.35–$4.40 support zone. If this support breaks, the price could drop to $4.20. On the other hand, a bounce could push the price back up to $4.60. The 24-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44.77, indicating neutral momentum.
Additionally, derivatives data shows a 15% week-over-week increase in open interest, now at $141 million, suggesting traders are using leverage to bet on price moves.
View analysis
Conclusion
The outlook for Cosmos (ATOM) is mixed. On one side, technical indicators suggest caution as the price hovers between $4.30 and $4.85. On the other, institutional moves like the Ethereum treasury investment show confidence in Cosmos’ role in blockchain interoperability.
Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s market dominance, which has dropped slightly by 0.57% this week, and ATOM’s funding rate compared to Bitcoin, which is slightly negative. These factors can signal shifts in investor interest between Bitcoin and altcoins like Cosmos.
A clear price move above the 200-day moving average at $4.63 would support a bullish outlook. Conversely, if the price stays below $4.35 for an extended period, it could trigger stop-loss orders and lead to further declines.
What is the latest news about ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) is making progress while facing some technical challenges as important events unfold. Here’s a quick summary of the latest updates:
- Cosmoverse 2025 Moves to Croatia (September 11, 2025) – The main conference will focus on connecting different blockchains and real-world uses.
- Persistence Chain SDK Upgrade (September 9, 2025) – A multi-step update to improve security and add Bitcoin features.
- Pocket Network Partnership (September 3, 2025) – Working to reduce dependence on centralized service providers by using decentralized infrastructure.
- EVM Development Paused (July 16, 2025) – Cosmos is shifting focus away from Ethereum compatibility to prioritize its own Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol.
Deep Dive
1. Cosmoverse 2025 in Split, Croatia (September 11, 2025)
Overview:
Cosmos’ main conference will be held in Split, Croatia, from October 30 to November 1, 2025. The event will highlight how different blockchains can work together, the use of artificial intelligence, and turning real-world assets into digital tokens. Speakers will include representatives from the European Central Bank, Croatian National Bank, and projects like Fetch.ai. There will also be a hackathon and sessions aimed at connecting traditional finance with Cosmos technology.
What this means:
This is positive news for ATOM because it strengthens Cosmos’ position as a leader in blockchain collaboration and adoption by institutions. Partnerships with major financial organizations and discussions about regulations could increase demand for Cosmos’ cross-chain services over time. (Crypto.News)
2. Persistence Chain SDK Upgrade (September 9, 2025)
Overview:
Persistence Core-1 Chain, a blockchain built on Cosmos that focuses on real-world assets, is undergoing a phased upgrade to the latest Cosmos software (SDK v0.53.x). This includes moving from a custom staking system to standard protocols and adding Bitcoin security features from Babylon.
What this means:
This update is somewhat positive for ATOM. Although it doesn’t directly affect the main Cosmos Hub, it strengthens an important project in the ecosystem, which could attract more decentralized finance (DeFi) activity related to Bitcoin on Cosmos. (Persistence Blog)
3. Pocket Network’s Decentralized Infrastructure Push (September 3, 2025)
Overview:
Pocket Network has teamed up with Kleomedes to replace centralized node providers like Hetzner and AWS across 14 Cosmos blockchains. This effort uses Pocket’s relay network to improve resistance to censorship and increase network uptime.
What this means:
This is good news for ATOM because it tackles a major risk: 38% of Cosmos nodes currently depend on just two providers. Moving to decentralized infrastructure will make the network more secure and encourage more validators to participate. (Crypto Times)
4. Cosmos Pauses EVM Development (July 16, 2025)
Overview:
Cosmos Hub has stopped working on an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) platform and is instead focusing on expanding its Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol. This decision came after concerns about high costs and strong competition from existing EVM-compatible blockchains.
What this means:
This is neutral for ATOM. While it allows Cosmos to focus on what it does best—connecting different blockchains—it also means giving up some ground to competitors like Polkadot that support EVM. The move highlights Cosmos’ commitment to its core strengths. (CoinMarketCap Community)
Conclusion
Cosmos is focusing on making blockchains work better together and building a stronger, more decentralized infrastructure. The upcoming Cosmoverse conference and Persistence upgrade show growth potential, but competition from other blockchains and the reduced focus on EVM compatibility present challenges. Will Cosmos’ focus on IBC and decentralized infrastructure outperform other blockchains’ scaling solutions? Keep an eye on developer activity and cross-chain total value locked (TVL) for signs.
What is expected in the development of ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) is making big strides to improve how different blockchains work together and grow its network with these key updates:
- Interchain Security Expansion (2025) – Sharing validators across new blockchains to boost security and rewards.
- Eureka Upgrade Integration (Q3 2025) – Making it easier for Ethereum-based blockchains to connect directly with Cosmos networks.
- Decentralized Infrastructure Push (September 2025) – Partnering with Pocket Network to reduce reliance on big centralized service providers.
Deep Dive
1. Interchain Security Expansion (2025)
What’s happening:
Cosmos is expanding a system called Interchain Security (ICS). This lets validators (the people who help confirm transactions) from the main Cosmos Hub secure newer blockchains like dYdX and Celestia. These validators earn rewards for their work, and new blockchains save money by sharing security instead of building their own from scratch.
Why it matters:
This is good news for ATOM holders because it could increase the demand for staking ATOM tokens and generate more income for validators. But it depends on whether new blockchains choose Cosmos’ ICS over other options like Polkadot’s parachains.
2. Eureka Upgrade Integration (Q3 2025)
What’s happening:
The Eureka upgrade (CoinDesk) will allow Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) blockchains—those that run Ethereum-compatible smart contracts—to connect directly with Cosmos networks using a technology called IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication). This removes the need for third-party bridges, which can be slower or less secure.
Why it matters:
This could attract more users and funds to Cosmos by making it easier for Ethereum-based projects to interact with Cosmos. It’s generally positive for ATOM but depends on how many developers adopt this new connection method and how much cross-chain activity it generates.
3. Decentralized Infrastructure Push (September 2025)
What’s happening:
Cosmos is teaming up with Pocket Network to decentralize its node infrastructure. Nodes are computers that help run the blockchain. Right now, many rely on big centralized providers like Hetzner and AWS. By using Pocket’s relay network, over 14 Cosmos blockchains (including Akash and Osmosis) will reduce this reliance, making the network more robust.
Why it matters:
This strengthens the network’s reliability and could attract bigger institutional validators who want a more secure and decentralized system. However, moving nodes to this new setup might cause some short-term technical challenges.
Conclusion
Cosmos is focusing heavily on making blockchains work better together and building a stronger, more decentralized infrastructure. The Interchain Security expansion and Ethereum integration are key steps to growing the ATOM ecosystem. While these improvements position Cosmos well against competitors like Polkadot, success will depend on developer support and how the market responds. Will Cosmos’ vision of an “Internet of Blockchains” lead the way in 2026?
What updates are there in the ATOM code base?
Cosmos’ software has received major updates to improve how different blockchains communicate and to boost security. Development activity remains strong.
- IBC Focus Shift (July 16, 2025) – Cosmos stopped working on Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility to focus more on its Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol.
- Security Protocol Upgrade (June 16, 2025) – After identifying risks, Cosmos improved code audits and tightened access controls.
- SDK v0.53.4 Release (July 25, 2025) – Minor updates to dependencies and better logging, with no disruption to existing systems.
Deep Dive
1. IBC Focus Shift (July 16, 2025)
Overview: Cosmos decided to pause development on Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility and instead focus on enhancing its Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol. This protocol allows different blockchains to connect and interact smoothly.
This decision supports Cosmos’ goal of building an independent ecosystem where blockchains can easily transact with each other. It came after a governance vote where 72% of validators agreed to prioritize IBC over EVM (TokenPost).
What this means: This is positive news for ATOM holders because it strengthens Cosmos’ position as a leader in blockchain interoperability. This is especially important as projects like dYdX move their operations to Cosmos.
2. Security Protocol Upgrade (June 16, 2025)
Overview: Interchain Labs, the team behind Cosmos, improved security by conducting more thorough code audits and removing access for a former developer linked to North Korea who had contributed to the codebase.
They also introduced double bug bounties through HackerOne to encourage more security testing and updated how nodes validate transactions. No active security issues were found during these audits (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This update is neutral to positive. While it highlights some risks in open-source projects, the proactive steps taken help build long-term trust in Cosmos’ security.
3. SDK v0.53.4 Release (July 25, 2025)
Overview: The Cosmos SDK version 0.53.4 brought minor updates to software dependencies and improved logging features. It remains fully compatible with previous 0.53.x versions.
New features include a VerboseModeLogger to better track upgrades and smoother communication between modules. This means blockchains built on Cosmos can upgrade without interrupting their operations (GitHub).
What this means: This is a routine update that helps keep the system running smoothly. It doesn’t directly affect users but is important for validators to follow during upgrades.
Conclusion
Cosmos is steadily growing as a hub for blockchain interoperability by focusing on its core strengths like IBC, while also maintaining security and software quality. With over 950 monthly code contributions on GitHub, developer interest remains high. The big question now is how Cosmos’ decision to move away from EVM compatibility will impact its ability to attract projects originally built on Ethereum.