Why did the price of STX fall?
Stacks (STX) dropped 1.17% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 0.33%. The main reasons include problems with the stacking process and negative technical signals.
- Stacking Yield Problems – Lower rewards from liquid staking tokens led to selling pressure.
- Technical Downtrend – Price is below important moving averages, showing weak momentum.
- Market Mood – General fear in the crypto market made STX’s decline worse.
Detailed Analysis
1. Problems with the Stacking Process (Negative Impact)
What happened: A glitch in the Stacking DAO’s system caused the liquid staking token stSTXbtc to pay out only about one-third of the expected rewards this cycle (Stacking DAO). Similar issues have affected major players like xverse before.
Why it matters: Lower rewards make staking less attractive, leading some holders to sell their STX. Since about 25 million STX are locked in these staking pools, this disruption likely put downward pressure on the price.
What to watch: Keep an eye on when the protocol fixes will be implemented and if staking activity picks up again in the next cycle, expected around late September.
2. Weak Technical Signals (Negative Impact)
Current status: STX is trading below key technical levels:
- 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): $0.646 (acting as resistance)
- Relative Strength Index (RSI-14): 37.93 (neutral but leaning toward oversold)
- MACD: Negative value (-0.0048) indicating bearish momentum.
What this means: The price was rejected at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.713 on September 20, forming a lower high. The Fibonacci retracement level at 23.6% ($0.676) is now resistance, with support around $0.591.
3. Overall Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)
Market mood: Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market rose to 57.84%, while the Fear & Greed Index is at 39/100, signaling fear. This generally reduces appetite for riskier altcoins like STX.
What this means: Since STX tends to move in line with Bitcoin, it’s affected by broader market caution. However, the Altcoin Season Index at 71/100 suggests that if sentiment improves, investors might shift funds back into altcoins like STX.
Conclusion
The recent decline in STX is mainly due to specific issues with the staking protocol and weak technical indicators, made worse by cautious market sentiment. Despite these short-term challenges, the project’s long-term vision of bringing DeFi to Bitcoin (such as through sBTC adoption) remains strong.
What to watch: Will STX hold the $0.591 support level, and can the Stacking DAO’s planned auto-renewal fixes restore staking rewards by late September?
What could affect the price of STX?
Stacks (STX) is navigating a mix of technical progress and ecosystem developments in a cautious market environment.
- sBTC Adoption – A trustless way to bring Bitcoin into decentralized finance (DeFi) could unlock over $1 trillion of inactive Bitcoin, which is a positive sign.
- Endowment Growth – The SIP-031 upgrade created a fund to support the ecosystem, approved by 97% of STX holders, but it may affect liquidity in the short term.
- BitcoinFi Expansion – Stacks currently manages $5.5 billion in total value locked (TVL) across Bitcoin scaling layers, showing strong demand for programmable Bitcoin, which is bullish.
Deep Dive
1. sBTC & Nakamoto Upgrades (Positive Outlook)
What’s happening: Stacks introduced sBTC, a decentralized version of Bitcoin that lets BTC move into its DeFi ecosystem without relying on third-party custodians. The Nakamoto upgrade, completed in late 2024, improved Bitcoin finality (confirmations) and sped up block times. By June 2025, sBTC adoption reached 5,000 BTC. Future plans include allowing users to mint sBTC themselves and offering secure vaults for institutions.
Why it matters: More sBTC use means higher demand for STX tokens because STX is needed to pay transaction fees and participate in stacking (a way to earn rewards). After the upgrade, the total locked BTC doubled to about 2,000 BTC in the second quarter of 2025 (Maestro Research).
2. Ecosystem Funding & Inflation (Mixed Effects)
What’s happening: The SIP-031 upgrade in July 2025 created the Stacks Endowment, a fund supported by temporarily increasing STX token issuance from 3.52% to 5.75% annually. This fund, now over $25 million, finances developer grants, DeFi incentives, and marketing efforts.
Why it matters: While this funding boosts ecosystem growth, the higher token supply could put downward pressure on STX’s price if demand doesn’t keep up. However, with 97% of the community voting in favor, there’s strong confidence that the funded projects will generate long-term value (SIP-031 Vote).
3. BitcoinFi Competition & Market Risks (Caution Advised)
What’s happening: Stacks competes with other Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions like Rootstock ($990 million TVL) and the Lightning Network ($116 billion TVL). Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 57.8% as of September 24, 2025, indicating cautious investor behavior.
Why it matters: Stacks’ unique advantage is offering programmability without compromising Bitcoin’s security. Still, the market faces challenges like fragmented liquidity and Bitcoin price swings. A drop in Bitcoin’s price could impact STX more heavily because Stacks relies on Bitcoin miners for its Proof of Transfer (PoX) consensus.
Conclusion
The future price of STX depends on how well sBTC adoption grows and whether the Endowment can turn increased token supply into real ecosystem value. Technical indicators like RSI28 suggest STX might be oversold, but breaking above the $0.67 resistance level is key to gaining momentum.
Keep an eye on: sBTC’s next goal of 21,000 BTC locked and Bitcoin’s price movements—will Stacks successfully leverage Bitcoin’s role as a store of value to fuel its own growth?
What are people saying about STX?
Conversations around Stacks (STX) are swinging between excitement over earning Bitcoin yields and concerns about exchange interruptions. Here’s what’s trending:
- 9.94% Bitcoin yield excitement – Stacking STX to earn Bitcoin continues to be a strong positive story.
- Bithumb exchange pause impacts – Network upgrades caused a temporary 11.4% drop in STX over a week.
- Ecosystem growth – Xverse now supports over 130 fiat currencies, making it easier for people worldwide to buy STX.
Deep Dive
1. @Stacks: Stacking STX generates Bitcoin yield (positive)
"Stacking STX to earn BTC yielded 9.94% APY over 20 cycles – real native Bitcoin yield."
– @Stacks (283K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-07-17 21:00 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This highlights STX’s unique advantage as a way to earn Bitcoin rewards, setting it apart from other Layer 2 blockchain projects.
2. CoinJournal: Exchange freeze slows momentum (negative)
"STX dropped 11.4% weekly as Bithumb suspended transactions for network upgrades, despite 15% monthly gains."
– CoinJournal (2025-07-25 12:58 UTC)
View article
What this means: Temporary pauses on exchanges can cause short-term price drops and test investor patience, but if the project’s fundamentals are strong, these moments often become buying opportunities.
3. @XverseApp: Easier global access to STX (positive)
"Xverse now lets users buy STX/BTC with 130+ fiat currencies – simplifying Bitcoin L2 adoption worldwide."
– @XverseApp (2025-06-14 22:00 UTC)
View announcement
What this means: Making it simpler to buy STX with many different currencies could boost participation in the network, though the actual effect on price depends on how many new users join.
Conclusion
The overall outlook for STX is cautiously optimistic, balancing its strong Bitcoin-based utility with some technical challenges. While exchange interruptions caused short-term setbacks, the core idea of turning Bitcoin into productive capital through stacking and sBTC adoption remains solid. Keep an eye on the SIP-031 governance vote and sBTC adoption numbers—successful results could confirm STX as the leading smart contract layer for Bitcoin.
What is the latest news about STX?
Stacks is making technical improvements while growing its ecosystem, keeping pace with the rising interest in Bitcoin-based decentralized finance (DeFi). Here’s the latest update:
- Liquid Staking Gains Traction (September 12, 2025) – Stacking DAO launched a 0% fee pool, attracting $25 million worth of STX tokens.
- BitcoinFi TVL Surges (August 7, 2025) – Stacks helped BitcoinFi reach $10 billion in total value locked (TVL) through DeFi and scaling solutions.
- Core Upgrades Roadmap (August 8, 2025) – Plans focus on faster transactions under 10 seconds and improvements to Clarity smart contracts.
Deep Dive
1. Liquid Staking Gains Traction (September 12, 2025)
Overview:
Stacking DAO introduced the first liquid staking tokens (LSTs) for Stacks (STX). This includes a native pool with no fees and a new product that offers yields on Bitcoin (sBTC). Since January 2025, over 25 million STX (about $15 million) have been deposited into the stSTXbtc pool, showing strong demand for Bitcoin-backed returns.
What this means:
This is good news for STX holders. Liquid staking makes it easier for people to use their staked tokens without locking them up, which can attract more investment. The addition of sBTC also strengthens Stacks’ position in Bitcoin DeFi.
(StackingDao)
2. BitcoinFi TVL Surges (August 7, 2025)
Overview:
According to Maestro’s first half of 2025 report, BitcoinFi’s total value locked (TVL) hit $10 billion. Stacks’ layer-2 TVL doubled to around $5.5 billion, adding roughly 2,000 BTC (about $120 million) in the second quarter. This growth was driven by increased use of sBTC and interest from institutional investors.
What this means:
This growth highlights Stacks’ role as Bitcoin’s programmable layer, enabling smart contracts and DeFi on Bitcoin. However, Stacks faces competition from Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions, which have a much larger TVL ($116 billion), and challenges related to liquidity being spread across platforms.
(CoinMarketCap)
3. Core Upgrades Roadmap (August 8, 2025)
Overview:
At the recent Stacks Townhall, developers shared plans to speed up transactions to under 10 seconds, add WebAssembly (Wasm) support for Clarity smart contracts, and simplify Stacking by removing cooldown periods.
What this means:
These upgrades aim to make Stacks easier to use and more attractive to developers. Faster transaction finality could help Stacks better compete with Ethereum layer-2s. Still, there are risks because these improvements depend on Bitcoin’s underlying technology, which has its own limitations.
(Stacks)
Conclusion
Stacks is pushing Bitcoin DeFi forward with innovations in liquid staking, scaling infrastructure, and developer tools. While the ecosystem is growing alongside BitcoinFi’s momentum, Stacks will need to maintain its edge amid increasing competition from other layer-2 solutions and ongoing regulatory scrutiny around tokenized Bitcoin.
What is expected in the development of STX?
Stacks’ roadmap is focused on making Bitcoin-based decentralized finance (DeFi) faster, more efficient, and easier to use by adding key technical improvements and growing its ecosystem.
- Transaction Speeds Under 10 Seconds (2025) – Building on previous upgrades to make transactions finalize faster.
- Clarity 2.0 and WASM Support (2025) – Improving smart contract performance and attracting more developers.
- Ledger Live Stacking Integration (2025) – Making it easier and safer to earn Bitcoin rewards using Ledger hardware wallets.
- sBTC Capacity Expansion (2026) – Increasing the amount of Bitcoin-backed liquidity available in DeFi.
Deep Dive
1. Transaction Speeds Under 10 Seconds (2025)
Overview: After the Nakamoto upgrade in October 2024, Stacks plans to cut transaction times from about 10 seconds to consistently under 10 seconds. The goal is to reach speeds similar to top blockchain networks by improving how blocks are shared and finalized, all while relying on Bitcoin’s security (Stacks X, Jun 2025).
What this means: Faster transactions make DeFi apps more user-friendly, encouraging wider adoption. However, since finality depends on Bitcoin’s block times, there’s some risk in how quickly transactions can be confirmed.
2. Clarity 2.0 and WASM Support (2025)
Overview: The Clarity smart contract language will be upgraded to run more efficiently. Adding WebAssembly (WASM) support will allow developers familiar with Ethereum and Solana to build on Stacks more easily. This supports Stacks’ mission to simplify building apps that run directly on Bitcoin (Stacks X, Jun 2025).
What this means: This could lead to more innovation and developer interest. But integrating WASM might affect Clarity’s strong focus on security, so it’s a balanced trade-off.
3. Ledger Live Stacking Integration (2025)
Overview: Stacks is working to integrate Stacking—earning Bitcoin rewards by locking STX tokens—directly into Ledger Live, the popular hardware wallet app. This will let users participate securely without relying on third-party services. Full support for the SIP-010 token standard is also planned (Stacks X, Jun 2025).
What this means: This is positive for attracting institutional investors because it reduces risks related to custody. However, delays from partners could slow down the rollout.
4. sBTC Capacity Expansion (2026)
Overview: After reaching 5,000 sBTC (about $300 million worth of Bitcoin) in mid-2025, Stacks aims to grow this to 21,000 sBTC. This requires upgrading the protocol to handle more Bitcoin-backed assets and improving cross-chain liquidity using platforms like Axelar and Wormhole (Stacks Asia Foundation, Jun 2025).
What this means: This will increase demand for STX tokens, which are used to manage sBTC. Still, security checks and Bitcoin’s price swings remain important risks.
Conclusion
Stacks is committed to making Bitcoin a programmable platform for decentralized finance by focusing on speed, compatibility, and tools suited for institutions. While success depends on technical delivery and Bitcoin’s market conditions, these upgrades could position STX as a key gateway to unlocking Bitcoin’s large pool of idle liquidity. The question remains whether growing stablecoin support and developer incentives will help Stacks compete with Ethereum Layer 2 solutions.
What updates are there in the STX code base?
Stacks is enhancing Bitcoin DeFi with new features like trustless sBTC, expanding across multiple blockchains, and improving governance.
- Satoshi Upgrades (May 2025) – Users can now mint sBTC themselves and stake both BTC and STX to earn rewards.
- sBTC Cross-Chain Expansion (July 2025) – sBTC and STX will be available natively on the Sui blockchain through Wormhole.
- SIP-031 Funding Proposal (May 2025) – A temporary increase in STX token issuance to support ecosystem growth.
Deep Dive
1. Satoshi Upgrades (May 2025)
What’s new: Users can mint sBTC (a Bitcoin-backed token on Stacks) without relying on third parties. They can also stake BTC, STX, or both simultaneously to earn rewards. Additionally, users can pay transaction fees using sBTC, making it easier to use Bitcoin within the Stacks network.
Why it matters: This reduces dependence on custodians, opens up more ways for STX holders to earn, and strengthens the connection between Bitcoin and decentralized finance (DeFi) on Stacks. (Source)
2. sBTC Cross-Chain Expansion (July 2025)
What’s new: sBTC and STX tokens will be available directly on the Sui blockchain and other networks using Wormhole, a secure bridge technology. This means sBTC can be used on multiple blockchains without wrapping or extra layers.
Why it matters: While this might split liquidity in the short term, it opens up access to Bitcoin’s large market across multiple blockchains, which is a positive long-term development for STX. (Source)
3. SIP-031 Funding Proposal (May 2025)
What’s new: This proposal suggests increasing the annual supply of STX tokens from 3.52% to 5.75% for five years. The extra tokens would fund grants, infrastructure, and developer incentives to grow the ecosystem.
Why it matters: Although this increase could cause short-term inflation and put downward pressure on STX’s price, it aims to boost developer activity and accelerate the growth of apps on Stacks. (Source)
Conclusion
Stacks is focusing on making Bitcoin DeFi more scalable with sBTC, expanding liquidity across blockchains, and securing sustainable funding. While some changes may cause short-term challenges, they position STX as a key link between Bitcoin and the broader multi-chain world. The big question is whether increased developer activity and sBTC adoption will outweigh inflation concerns.