Why did the price of AVAX fall?
Avalanche (AVAX) dropped 2.76% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.33%. This decline comes after a strong 21.98% rally over the past week. Key reasons include profit-taking by traders, hitting technical resistance levels, and a slowdown in altcoin momentum.
- Profit-Taking After Rally – A 7-day gain of about 22% led some investors to sell and lock in profits.
- Technical Resistance – AVAX faced selling pressure near the $30 mark, with indicators showing it was overbought.
- Altcoin Momentum Shift – The broader altcoin market cooled off, with the altcoin index dropping 2.78% as funds moved to other assets.
Deep Dive
1. Profit-Taking After Rally (Bearish Impact)
Overview: AVAX surged 52% over the past 90 days, reaching nearly $30, its highest price since January 2025. This strong run likely encouraged some traders to sell and take profits. Supporting this, the 24-hour trading volume fell 20% to $1.08 billion, indicating less buying interest.
What this means: Short-term traders are cashing in on recent gains. AVAX typically sees corrections after breaking above its 30-day moving average (currently $24.99), which it did last week.
Key watch: If AVAX can close and stay above $30, it may continue its upward trend. If not, it might stay range-bound for a while.
2. Technical Resistance at Key Levels (Mixed Impact)
Overview: AVAX is facing resistance around $29.08 (a key Fibonacci retracement level) and the $30 pivot point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.32, indicating the asset is overbought, while the MACD indicator shows weakening bullish momentum.
What this means: Traders often sell near these technical levels after a rally. The price was rejected near $31.18, which matches previous highs. Support is now around $27.78, which held during the recent dip.
Key watch: If AVAX falls below $27.78, it could slide further toward $26.73, another important support level.
3. Altcoin Sentiment Cooling (Bearish Impact)
Overview: The CoinMarketCap (CMC) Altcoin Season Index dropped to 70, down 2.78% in 24 hours, showing less appetite for riskier altcoins. While still in an “altseason,” investors are shifting funds from mid-sized coins like AVAX to Bitcoin (which now dominates 56.79% of the market) and larger altcoins.
What this means: AVAX’s 2.76% drop was sharper than Ethereum’s (-1.1%) and Solana’s (-1.8%), showing it’s more sensitive to changes in market sentiment. Delays in institutional products, like Grayscale’s AVAX ETF, also weighed on prices.
Key watch: If the altcoin index climbs back above 72, it could boost demand for AVAX again.
Conclusion
AVAX’s recent pullback is a normal pause after a strong rally, combined with technical resistance and a cooling altcoin market. The medium-term uptrend remains intact, supported by the 30-day moving average at $24.99. Short-term traders should watch the $27.78 support level and overall market shifts.
Key watch: Will AVAX hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $27.78 amid changing altcoin liquidity?
What could affect the price of AVAX?
Avalanche (AVAX) is showing strong upward momentum thanks to the current altcoin season, but faces some challenges from technical factors.
- Altseason Rotation – Altcoins are gaining more attention, with AVAX up 21% this week.
- ETF Catalysts – Proposed ETFs by VanEck and Grayscale could bring big institutional investors if approved by late 2025.
- Subnet Adoption – The Octane Upgrade slashed fees by 99%, encouraging projects like FIFA’s NFT move and a $240 billion real estate tokenization pipeline.
Deep Dive
1. Altseason Momentum (Positive Impact)
Overview: The altcoin season index reached 68 out of 100 on September 14, 2025, rising 54% over the past month. This shows investors are shifting money from Bitcoin to altcoins like AVAX. On September 11, AVAX jumped 11%, while Bitcoin dropped slightly by 0.21% that week.
What this means: When altcoins are in favor, AVAX tends to perform well. Its 90-day correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.52, meaning AVAX’s price moves more independently and can benefit from growth specific to its own sector (CoinMarketCap Altseason Index).
2. ETF Prospects & Institutional Demand (Mixed Impact)
Overview: VanEck has filed for an AVAX ETF, with a decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. Grayscale has also added AVAX to its “Top 20” fund, showing growing interest from big investors. However, the SEC has delayed approval of crypto ETFs before, which remains a risk.
What this means: If approved, these ETFs could bring inflows similar to Bitcoin ETFs, which manage about $144 billion. But if rejected, some investors might sell to take profits. AVAX’s strong fundamentals, including $1.9 billion in total value locked (TVL) and partnerships like Janus Henderson’s $250 million in tokenized assets, provide some stability (VanEck Filing).
3. Subnet Scalability & Upgrades (Positive Impact)
Overview: The July 2025 Octane Upgrade cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain to just $0.01 and introduced dynamic staking. This led to a 170% increase in daily transactions, reaching 10.1 million. Major projects like FIFA are moving their NFTs to Avalanche subnets, and Shopify is launching loyalty programs powered by Avalanche.
What this means: Lower fees and customizable subnets make Avalanche attractive for businesses, including Alibaba Cloud deployments. This helps AVAX compete with Ethereum in gaming and real-world asset tokenization, which should increase demand for the token (Messari Q2 Report).
Conclusion
AVAX’s future depends on keeping up the altseason momentum while dealing with uncertainty around ETF approvals. The $27–$30 price range is a key resistance level—breaking above it could push AVAX to $40–$46. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought at 70.32, suggesting a possible pause or pullback. Keep an eye on Grayscale’s ETF decision timeline and subnet transaction growth for clues on where AVAX is headed.
Will institutional investments through ETFs balance out retail investors taking profits during the altseason peak?
What are people saying about AVAX?
Avalanche (AVAX) is seeing mixed reactions, swinging between hopes for a price breakout and concerns about resistance levels. Here’s what’s trending:
- Buzz around ETFs and real-world asset (RWA) adoption is driving optimism
- Traders are debating whether AVAX will break above $30 or fall below $24
- New projects like tokenized whisky and a yen stablecoin are creating excitement about adoption
Deep Dive
1. @ManLyNFT: ETF and RWA growth boost optimism
"Bitwise has filed for an Avalanche ETF, and volumes of tokenized real-world assets have jumped 58%. Are you still not bullish?"
– @ManLyNFT (12k followers · 48k impressions · 2025-09-06 15:40 UTC)
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What this means: Institutional interest in Avalanche is growing. Bitwise’s ETF application (currently under review by the SEC) and the rise in tokenized real-world assets could increase demand for AVAX if approved. However, regulatory decisions can take time and remain uncertain.
2. @CryptoBoss: $50 price target if resistance is broken
"If AVAX breaks above $25, it could quickly rally toward $50 in the short term."
– @CryptoBoss (8.2k followers · 15k impressions · 2025-08-17 14:46 UTC)
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What this means: Traders watching technical charts see $25 as a critical level. Breaking above it could trigger a strong upward move, with some indicators suggesting potential gains up to $50. But AVAX faces selling pressure around $26–$27, which could slow momentum.
3. @babalanche: Tokenized whisky and yen stablecoin create adoption buzz
"Avalanche announces tokenized whisky and a yen stablecoin, like it’s no big deal."
– @babalanche (23k followers · 62k impressions · 2025-08-18 15:05 UTC)
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What this means: These new projects are interesting and show Avalanche’s expanding use cases. However, so far they haven’t had a noticeable impact on AVAX’s price. The market is waiting to see if these initiatives gain real traction on the blockchain.
4. @AVAXBearWatch: Risk of price dropping below $24 is bearish
"If AVAX falls below $24.50, expect a faster drop toward $23."
– @AVAXBearWatch (6.7k followers · 9k impressions · 2025-08-18 00:34 UTC)
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What this means: Some traders are cautious, noting signs of weakening momentum and increased short selling. If AVAX breaks below $24.50, it could lead to a sharper decline.
Conclusion
The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. On one hand, growing institutional interest and new real-world asset projects are positive signs. On the other, technical resistance is keeping the price stuck between $24 and $27. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision regarding Bitwise’s ETF filing, expected in Q4 2025, and whether AVAX can maintain its 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) around $25.12. Either of these could be the catalyst that breaks the current stalemate.
What is the latest news about AVAX?
Avalanche is gaining momentum during the current altcoin season, supported by technical improvements and excitement around a potential ETF. Here’s the latest update:
- AVAX Jumps 11% on Altseason Buzz (September 11, 2025) – Reached $29, its highest price since January, as altcoin market indicators hit yearly highs.
- Bitwise Files for AVAX ETF (September 6, 2025) – Growing institutional interest as real-world asset (RWA) volumes on Avalanche rise by 58%.
- Octane Upgrade Cuts Fees by 99% (July 19, 2025) – New fee models and subnet improvements boost network scalability and lower costs.
In-Depth Look
1. AVAX Jumps 11% on Altseason Buzz (September 11, 2025)
What happened:
AVAX’s price surged nearly 11% to $29, marking its highest point since January 2025. This rise coincides with the altcoin market cap approaching its 2021 peak of $1.63 trillion. The Blockchain Center’s altseason index reached 76 out of 100, indicating strong investor interest in altcoins.
Why it matters:
This is a positive sign for AVAX because altseason typically boosts higher-risk, higher-reward assets like AVAX first. The price increase matches a rise in network activity, with Avalanche’s C-Chain recording a new high of 35.8 million transactions in August. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 72, which suggests the asset might be overbought and due for a short-term pullback.
(Source: MEXC)
2. Bitwise Files for AVAX ETF (September 6, 2025)
What happened:
Bitwise, a well-known investment firm, filed an application to launch an AVAX exchange-traded fund (ETF). This move comes as Avalanche’s real-world asset volumes have grown 58% in the last quarter. Over $250 million worth of assets have been tokenized on Avalanche subnets this year.
Why it matters:
An ETF would make it easier for institutional investors to gain exposure to AVAX, signaling growing confidence in the network. While this could bring more long-term investment, regulatory approval is still uncertain. For example, a similar ETF application by Grayscale from May 2025 is still under review by the SEC.
(Source: ManLyNFT)
3. Octane Upgrade Cuts Fees by 99% (July 19, 2025)
What happened:
Avalanche’s Octane upgrade dramatically lowered average transaction fees on the C-Chain from $0.25 to just $0.01. This was achieved through dynamic fee pricing and a new pay-as-you-go system for validator staking, which also cut subnet deployment costs by 83%.
Why it matters:
Lower fees and reduced costs make Avalanche more attractive for businesses and developers, improving its chances for wider adoption. The upgrade also set the stage for asynchronous transaction processing, expected in Q3 2025, which could increase network capacity by three times.
(Source: CoinMarketCap Community)
Conclusion
Avalanche is capitalizing on technical upgrades, ETF interest, and the current altseason to push toward its yearly highs. The $27 to $30 price range will be a key test in the near term. Meanwhile, strong growth in institutional real-world assets and subnet adoption provide solid support. The big question remains: will Avalanche’s partnerships with companies like AWS and Shopify lead to sustained growth in subnet activity?
What is expected in the development of AVAX?
Avalanche’s roadmap is focused on attracting institutional users, building scalable infrastructure, and growing its ecosystem.
- Real-World Asset (RWA) Expansion (Q4 2025) – Expanding tokenization of real-world assets through partnerships like Grove.
- Global Stablecoin Integration (2025) – Launching Japanese Yen (JPY) and Korean Won (KRW) stablecoins with major financial institutions.
- Subnet Customization (Q4 2025) – Offering enhanced tools for businesses to create custom blockchain networks with privacy and compliance features.
- Octane Upgrade Phase 2 (2026) – Further reducing fees and improving transaction efficiency with dynamic gas fee adjustments.
Deep Dive
1. Real-World Asset (RWA) Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview: Avalanche is speeding up the process of turning real-world assets like loans and real estate into digital tokens. By July 2025, it reached $250 million in tokenized assets through its partner Grove. The goal is to create secure, compliant infrastructure for institutions to trade fractional ownership of these assets, especially in private credit and real estate markets (AVAX July Snow Report).
What this means: This is positive for Avalanche (AVAX) because it could bring significant institutional money into the network. The global market for tokenized real-world assets is expected to grow beyond $10 trillion by 2030. However, clear regulations will be crucial for this growth.
2. Global Stablecoin Integration (2025)
Overview: Avalanche is partnering with major financial companies in Japan and South Korea, such as LG CNS, to launch regulated stablecoins pegged to the Japanese Yen and Korean Won. This follows earlier integrations of Euro (EURC) and US Dollar (USDG) stablecoins for payment settlements with Visa (AVAX July Update).
What this means: This is somewhat positive for Avalanche. Stablecoins make decentralized finance (DeFi) more useful but face strong competition from established stablecoins like USDC. Success will depend on how widely these stablecoins are adopted for international payments.
3. Subnet Customization (Q4 2025)
Overview: After success with a subnet for FIFA, Avalanche plans to offer modular tools that let businesses create their own custom blockchains (Layer 1s) with built-in identity verification (KYC) and privacy features. This targets industries like trade finance that need secure and compliant blockchain solutions (June 2025 Snow Report).
What this means: This is promising for long-term growth because it could bring traditional companies into the Avalanche ecosystem. However, adoption by enterprises may take longer than expected.
4. Octane Upgrade Phase 2 (2026)
Overview: Building on a 43% fee reduction from the 2024 Octane upgrade, the next phase will introduce new technologies like asynchronous transaction processing and flexible block sizes. These improvements aim to keep average transaction fees below one cent, even during high network demand (AVAX Q2 Report).
What this means: Lower fees encourage more developers to build on Avalanche. For example, after a popular game launch, transactions increased by 225%.
Conclusion
Avalanche is focusing on attracting institutional users through real-world asset tokenization and stablecoins, while also improving its technology with customizable subnets and lower fees. Its success will depend on balancing the needs of traditional businesses with the innovation of decentralized finance. Regulatory changes in Asia will be important to watch, especially for Avalanche’s stablecoin plans.
What updates are there in the AVAX code base?
Avalanche made major improvements to its technology in July 2025, focusing on making the network faster, cheaper, and more appealing for businesses.
- Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025) – Changed how validators earn rewards, drastically lowered fees, and sped up communication between different parts of the network.
- eERC Standard Launch (July 2025) – Introduced encrypted ERC-20 tokens to improve privacy while allowing authorized audits.
Deep Dive
1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025)
Overview:
Avalanche performed a major update called a hard fork, which included three main improvements (ACP-77, ACP-125, ACP-176). These changes give validators more flexibility, cut fees significantly, and help the network handle more transactions smoothly.
Key technical updates include replacing the fixed 2,000 AVAX staking requirement for validators with a pay-as-you-go system, reducing base transaction fees on the C-Chain by 99.6% (from 25 nano AVAX to 0.1 nano AVAX), and introducing dynamic fee calculations. The upgrade also set the stage for running transactions in parallel (planned for Q3 2025) and improved communication between different subnets using the Interchain Messaging Protocol (ICM).
What this means:
This is great news for AVAX because it lowers costs for developers (deploying subnets is about 83% cheaper) and users (average fees dropped from 25 cents to about 1 cent). Validators now earn rewards based on how reliably they operate and their activity across chains, encouraging a healthier network. (Source)
2. eERC Standard Launch (July 2025)
Overview:
Avalanche’s AvaCloud introduced a new type of token called encrypted ERC-20 tokens (eERC). These tokens offer privacy by encrypting transactions but still allow authorized parties, like regulators, to audit them when necessary.
This standard works on top of existing Ethereum-compatible tools, so it’s easy for developers to adopt without changing their current setups.
What this means:
This development is neutral to positive for AVAX because it opens up new possibilities for businesses that need to protect sensitive data, such as those dealing with real-world assets (RWAs). However, its success depends on whether regulators accept this approach. (Source)
Conclusion
Avalanche’s July 2025 upgrades focus on making the platform more business-friendly by cutting costs, improving scalability, and adding privacy features. With transaction fees now 100 times lower and encrypted tokens available, AVAX is positioning itself as a strong candidate for regulated institutional use.