What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche (AVAX) faces a mix of positive institutional interest and technical challenges.

1. ETF Approvals Pending – VanEck and Grayscale’s ETF applications could bring in over $100 million.
2. Subnet Adoption Growth – Partnerships with FIFA and MapleStory have boosted transactions by 275%.
3. Market Liquidity Tightening – Overall crypto trading volume is down 42%, limiting gains for altcoins like AVAX.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Demand Drivers (Positive Outlook)

VanEck’s Purposebuilt Fund, which could bring in more than $100 million, and Grayscale’s spot AVAX ETF application (with a decision expected by July 2025) show growing interest from big investors. The Avalanche Foundation is also working on a $1 billion treasury plan to encourage companies to buy AVAX in bulk at discounted prices (Yahoo Finance).

What this means: If these ETFs get approved, AVAX could see institutional investment similar to Bitcoin’s 2024 inflows, where funds like BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $18 billion in six months. However, delays from the SEC, like those seen with Ethereum ETFs, might keep prices stable for now.

2. Subnet Growth vs. Retail User Decline (Mixed Signals)

FIFA’s move to an Avalanche subnet and MapleStory Universe’s integration have driven daily transactions up to 759,000—a 275% increase since May. But retail user activity is dropping, with active addresses down 19% since May (AMBCrypto).

What this means: While big companies are increasing network use, AVAX still depends heavily on Bitcoin’s market dominance (currently 59.09%) during this cautious market phase. For AVAX’s price to rise, growing subnet use needs to make up for the 74% drop in retail trading volume.

3. Technical Analysis (Neutral to Bearish)

AVAX is trading below key moving averages (the 30-day EMA is $23.56, while the price is $19.67), and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 33.88, indicating it’s oversold. The price has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern since 2021, nearing a breakout point. If AVAX breaks above $26.60 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), it could reach $44. If it fails, support at $15.11 could be tested (CoinMarketCap).

What this means: The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $25.09 is a key level. To move higher, AVAX needs strong buying volume above the recent 24-hour trading volume of $269 million (which is down 37% week-over-week). Until then, technical indicators suggest bearish pressure.

Conclusion

AVAX’s future depends on whether institutional ETFs get approved before subnet growth slows down. Partnerships like FIFA’s NFT migration, which targets over 370,000 properties, provide solid support. However, a 32% price drop over the past 30 days shows skepticism about altcoins in a Bitcoin-led market. The key questions are: Can Avalanche’s enterprise partnerships overcome the broader market’s liquidity challenges? Keep an eye on the Grayscale ETF decision and whether daily transactions stay above 1.2 million.

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What are people saying about AVAX?

There’s a lot of buzz around Avalanche (AVAX) as it approaches key price points and gains interest from big investors. Here’s what’s happening:

1. $27 resistance is testing buyers’ patience
2. ETF filings are fueling hopes for a $40 price jump
3. Institutions are investing in AVAX for real-world asset projects

Deep Dive

1. @ManLyNFT: August Activity on Avalanche’s C-Chain Sparks $40 Price Optimism Bullish

"AVAX is just below $27 resistance with Bitwise ETF filing and a 58% increase in real-world asset (RWA) volume – Why aren’t you bullish yet?"
– @ManLyNFT (23K followers · 189K impressions · 2025-09-06 15:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive news for AVAX. The network saw a record 35.8 million transactions in August, and the ETF filing adds excitement. If AVAX breaks above $27, it could climb to $40–$46, based on technical analysis methods like Fibonacci extensions.

2. @CryptoPulse_CRU: Warning of Possible Drop to $15 if AVAX Falls Below $24.55–$27 Range Bearish

"If AVAX can’t hold between $24.55 and $27, it might drop to $15."
– @CryptoPulse_CRU (41K followers · 327K impressions · 2025-09-09 09:30 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign. If AVAX falls below this key range, it could trigger a bigger sell-off, pushing the price down to $15. This prediction comes from a chart pattern called a descending triangle, which often signals a downward move.

3. VanEck: $100 Million Fund Invests in Avalanche Ecosystem for Real-World Assets Bullish

VanEck’s PurposeBuilt Fund is putting money into Avalanche projects focused on real-world assets, like farmland tokenization, thanks to Avalanche’s ability to scale for institutional needs.
What this means: This is good news for AVAX. More funding means more development and practical uses for the token. The focus on real-world assets fits well with Avalanche’s plan to attract big businesses.

Conclusion

The outlook for AVAX is mixed. On one hand, the price is facing technical challenges and competition from Bitcoin (which currently dominates 59.09% of the market). On the other hand, partnerships like Visa’s stablecoin integration and FIFA moving to Avalanche’s subnet show growing real-world use. Keep an eye on the $20 support level—if AVAX stays above it, buyers might be accumulating. But if it falls below, the $15 price target could become more likely.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is gaining momentum through gaming partnerships, new investment funds, and real-world asset adoption. Here’s the latest update:

1. MapleStory Universe Chooses Avalanche (October 24, 2025) – Nexon’s popular game MapleStory Universe is using Avalanche to give players true ownership of in-game items as NFTs and to expand its gaming ecosystem.
2. T. Rowe Price Files for Multi-Asset Crypto ETF (October 22, 2025) – The $1.77 trillion asset manager includes AVAX in a new regulated crypto fund aimed at institutional investors.
3. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries Grow on Avalanche (October 25, 2025) – $638 million worth of U.S. government bonds are now tokenized on Avalanche, highlighting its strength in real-world asset tokenization.

In-Depth Look

1. MapleStory Universe Chooses Avalanche (October 24, 2025)

What happened:
MapleStory Universe, a massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG) with millions of players worldwide, has partnered with Avalanche. This allows players to truly own their in-game items as NFTs (digital collectibles) and enables other developers to create connected gaming experiences using Avalanche’s technology.

Why it matters:
This is a big win for Avalanche because it brings a major gaming brand onto its platform, potentially attracting millions of users. Avalanche’s technology supports fast and scalable transactions, which is important for games with lots of players and trading activity. (Yahoo Finance)

2. T. Rowe Price Files for Multi-Asset Crypto ETF (October 22, 2025)

What happened:
T. Rowe Price, a well-known investment firm managing $1.77 trillion, filed to launch a new crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF). This fund will include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX). The goal is to offer investors a regulated way to invest in multiple cryptocurrencies.

Why it matters:
This shows growing institutional interest in AVAX and other cryptocurrencies. While the filing is a positive sign, the fund still needs regulatory approval. If approved, it could lead to more investment funds including AVAX, though it will compete with larger cryptocurrencies for attention. (AMBCrypto)

3. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries Grow on Avalanche (October 25, 2025)

What happened:
Avalanche now hosts $638 million in tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the second-largest blockchain for this type of asset after Ethereum. Investment funds like BlackRock’s BUIDL are driving inflows, and other tokenized bond products on Avalanche are growing rapidly.

Why it matters:
This highlights Avalanche’s appeal to institutional investors who want to trade real-world assets on the blockchain in a compliant and private way. The growth in tokenized assets shows that Avalanche is becoming a key player in bridging traditional finance and blockchain technology. (Bitcoin.com)

Conclusion

Avalanche is making strides by connecting gaming, institutional investment, and real-world assets into a strong growth story. MapleStory Universe brings millions of gamers, T. Rowe Price’s ETF filing signals growing institutional interest, and the surge in tokenized U.S. Treasuries shows real-world use cases. The big question is whether AVAX can turn these developments into lasting network activity as it competes with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche’s roadmap is focused on growing enterprise use and making the network more efficient through these main projects:

1. Subnet Expansion (Q4 2025) – Creating customizable blockchains for gaming and large organizations.
2. Octane Phase 2 (Q1 2026) – Lowering fees further and adding flexible rewards for network validators.
3. RWA Tokenization Push (2026) – Using over $1 billion in treasury funds to buy AVAX tokens.
4. Interchain Messaging Upgrade (2026) – Improving communication between different blockchains and subnets.

Deep Dive

1. Subnet Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview: Avalanche is focusing on building more subnets, which are smaller, customizable blockchains within the Avalanche network. These are aimed at big companies and gaming platforms like FIFA and MapleStory Universe. Recent updates (ACP-77) have made it cheaper to run these subnets by about 60% compared to last year.

What this means: This is good news for AVAX because each subnet needs AVAX tokens to secure it. However, if new subnets don’t grow as expected—especially since there was a 45% drop in new subnet launches year-over-year—it could slow demand for AVAX in the short term.

2. Octane Phase 2 (Q1 2026)

Overview: Following a 43% fee cut in June 2025, Octane Phase 2 will introduce new technology like asynchronous execution and validator voting to adjust gas fees dynamically. This aims to reduce transaction costs by another 30-50% for decentralized finance (DeFi) apps on Avalanche’s C-Chain.

What this means: This could balance out for AVAX’s price. Lower fees might encourage more users, but it could also reduce the number of AVAX tokens burned (destroyed) during transactions. It’s important for Avalanche to stay competitive, especially against networks like Solana that claim very high transaction speeds.

3. RWA Tokenization Push (2026)

Overview: The Avalanche Foundation plans to invest over $1 billion through two U.S.-based treasury companies (Cointribune) to buy AVAX tokens at discounted prices. This follows a $100 million real-world asset (RWA) fund launched by VanEck in June 2025.

What this means: This is positive for institutional interest in AVAX, but there is some risk since only $250 million of the $1 billion target was reached in 2025.

4. Interchain Messaging Upgrade (2026)

Overview: Avalanche plans to standardize its Interchain Messaging (ICM) protocol to make it easier to transfer assets between subnets and other blockchains like Bitcoin.

What this means: If successful, this will encourage more developers to build on Avalanche. Currently, cross-chain transfers total about $120 million per month, but most of the activity (83%) still happens through Ethereum bridges.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s roadmap combines technical improvements (like Octane) with efforts to grow its ecosystem (subnets and RWAs). However, its success depends heavily on attracting institutional users, which can be affected by broader market trends. The network is handling 1.8 million transactions daily as of October 2025—3.6 times more than in 2024. The big question is whether AVAX can keep this momentum if Bitcoin’s dominance stays around 59%.

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What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche made big improvements to its technology in the third quarter of 2025, focusing on lowering fees, improving scalability, and making the platform more suitable for businesses.

1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025) – Cut fees by 98% and changed how validators earn rewards.
2. eERC Standard (July 2025) – Introduced encrypted ERC-20 tokens that allow selective sharing of transaction details.
3. Asynchronous Execution Prep (Q3 2025) – Prepared the system to process transactions in parallel for faster performance.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche performed a major update across its network, introducing flexible fees, a new way for validators to stake tokens based on usage, and improvements for running multiple subnetworks.

This upgrade included three key proposals:

• ACP-77: Changed validator staking from a fixed 2,000 AVAX to a usage-based system, lowering subnet deployment costs by about 83%.
• ACP-125: Dropped the minimum base fee from 25 nano AVAX (nAVAX) to 0.1 nAVAX, reducing average transaction fees on the C-Chain from $0.25 to just $0.01.
• ACP-176: Added smart fee adjustments based on network congestion and prioritized transactions accordingly.

What this means:
This is positive news for AVAX holders and users because it makes using Avalanche much cheaper, improves rewards for validators, and makes the platform more attractive for businesses to build on.

(Source)

2. eERC Standard (July 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche introduced a new token standard called eERC, which allows ERC-20 tokens to be encrypted on the blockchain. This means token balances and transfers can be kept private but still allow selective access to auditors or regulators through permissioned keys.

Key features include:

• Encryption of token data directly on the blockchain.
• Controlled disclosure of information to authorized parties.
• Compatibility with existing Ethereum development tools.

What this means:
This update is neutral for AVAX right now. It opens up new possibilities for financial institutions that need privacy and compliance, but widespread adoption depends on clear regulations. Still, it positions Avalanche as a leader in compliant decentralized finance (DeFi).

(Source)

3. Asynchronous Execution Prep (Q3 2025)

Overview:
The Octane Upgrade also set the stage for processing transactions in parallel, which is planned for release in 2026.

Key technical improvements include:

• Breaking down transaction checks into modular parts.
• Optimizing the transaction pool (mempool) for simultaneous processing.
• Improving how conflicts between transactions are resolved.

What this means:
This is very positive for AVAX because parallel transaction processing could dramatically increase the network’s speed, potentially matching Solana’s 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) while keeping compatibility with Ethereum tools.

(Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche’s 2025 updates focus on making the platform scalable for businesses, lowering costs, and adapting to regulatory needs—key factors for tokenizing real-world assets. The fee cuts and staking changes have already boosted network activity to 1.5 million daily transactions as of June 2025. The upcoming parallel processing features promise even greater performance improvements.

What could speed up adoption of Avalanche’s subnets now that these core upgrades are in place?