What could affect the price of AVAX?
Avalanche is balancing growing interest from big companies with ongoing regulatory challenges.
- Big Business Partnerships – Leading banks in Japan and South Korea are launching platforms on Avalanche (positive sign)
- ETF Approval Delays – Grayscale and Bitwise’s applications for Avalanche ETFs are facing delays from regulators (mixed news)
- Large Investors Buying – Investors holding large amounts of AVAX added over $22 million this week despite weak price signals (neutral)
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Tokenization Push (Positive Impact)
What’s happening: Japan’s TIS, a huge payment processor worth $2 trillion, and South Korea’s Woori Bank have launched regulated platforms on Avalanche to handle stablecoins and real-world assets. They aim to manage over $66 billion in tokenized assets by 2028. This follows BlackRock’s experiments using Avalanche for treasury management.
Why it matters: Real-world use of Avalanche means more AVAX tokens get permanently removed from circulation (burned) because all transaction fees are burned. For every $1 billion in tokenized assets, about 1.2 million AVAX could be burned each year at current transaction levels (Coinspeaker). This reduces supply and can support price growth.
2. ETF Approval Delays (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Avalanche ETF until July 2025, similar to delays seen with ETFs for XRP and DOGE. However, Bitwise recently filed a new ETF application with Coinbase as custodian, showing ongoing institutional interest (Yahoo Finance).
Why it matters: These delays create short-term uncertainty, contributing to a 30% drop in AVAX price over the past month. But if approved, ETFs could bring in more than $15 billion in new investments. Historically, coins linked to ETFs, like MSTR, have seen price gains over 200% after approval.
3. Large Investors Buying Despite Weak Price Signals (Neutral Impact)
What’s happening: Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 AVAX purchased $22.9 million worth of tokens this week. However, the price remains below the 200-day moving average ($25.02), a key technical level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38, suggesting the token is oversold, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still bearish.
Why it matters: When large investors buy, it often signals confidence and can precede price increases. But AVAX needs to close above $23.50 on a weekly basis to confirm a positive trend reversal.
Conclusion
Avalanche is seeing strong interest from major financial institutions, which is encouraging. However, regulatory delays and Bitcoin’s dominance (59% market share) limit immediate price gains. Successful adoption by banks could reduce AVAX supply through token burns, potentially boosting value. Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF decision expected by July 15 and adoption progress from TIS in the fourth quarter.
What are people saying about AVAX?
Avalanche (AVAX) is at a crossroads, with some signs pointing to a breakout and others warning of a downturn. Here’s the latest:
- Institutional interest is growing, thanks to ETF filings and more real-world assets being tokenized
- The $20–$25 price range is a key battleground that traders are watching closely
- Technical indicators show mixed signals, with some analysts expecting a reversal and others fearing a drop
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Momentum Builds (Bullish)
Bitwise recently filed for an Avalanche ETF, and the volume of real-world assets (RWA) linked to AVAX has jumped by 58%. This shows that big financial players are starting to take Avalanche seriously. For example, BlackRock’s integration with Avalanche’s sBUIDL platform is a sign of growing institutional trust.
What this means: These developments are positive for AVAX’s future, suggesting more investment and adoption ahead.
2. $26.36 Neckline Test (Mixed)
AVAX is testing a key price level around $26.36. If it breaks above this, it could signal a move higher toward the next resistance level. However, if the price falls below the $24.55–$27.00 range, the bullish setup would be invalidated. Recently, AVAX failed to hold $25.60, which led to a drop to $24.05.
What this means: The outlook is uncertain until AVAX can hold above these critical price points.
3. Bearish Technical Pressure Mounts (Bearish)
AVAX recently fell below a support level at $21.50, accompanied by a bearish MACD crossover — a technical signal that hasn’t appeared since January 2025. Analysts warn that if AVAX can’t hold $20, it might retest lower levels between $17 and $19. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also low at 30.84, indicating weakening momentum.
What this means: These signs point to potential further declines, suggesting caution for traders.
Conclusion
The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. On one hand, growing institutional adoption and ETF filings provide reasons for optimism. On the other, technical indicators show some warning signs that could lead to price drops. The $20–$25 price range is especially important for determining the next move. Keep an eye on the Fear & Greed Index (currently neutral at 42/100) and Bitcoin’s market dominance (59.22%) for clues about where altcoins like AVAX might head next. Also, watch whether Avalanche’s expanding subnet ecosystem can help it overcome broader market challenges.
What is the latest news about AVAX?
Avalanche is gaining momentum with big companies and financial institutions starting to use its technology. Here are the key updates:
- Multi-Token Platform Launch (October 28, 2025) – Japanese IT company TIS and Avalanche have teamed up to help banks in Japan issue stablecoins.
- $300 Million Corporate Treasury Investment (October 28, 2025) – AgriFORCE is raising funds to build a treasury focused on Avalanche (AVAX).
- Regulated Stablecoin Launch (October 28, 2025) – South Korea’s first government-approved stablecoin has been launched on Avalanche.
In-Depth Look
1. Multi-Token Platform Launch (October 28, 2025)
What happened: TIS, a major Japanese IT company, and Ava Labs created a new blockchain platform that allows banks to issue stablecoins and security tokens. This platform is built on Avalanche’s AvaCloud and supports popular token standards like ERC20 and NFTs. It also follows Japan’s Payment Services Act, ensuring it meets local regulations. The platform aims to handle about ¥300 trillion (around $2 trillion) in payments each year, using Avalanche’s fast processing speed of 50,000 transactions per second and near-instant transaction finality.
Why it matters: This is a big win for Avalanche (AVAX) because it positions the network as a key player in Japan’s digital finance scene. It also aligns with global moves toward regulated digital assets, like the U.S. GENIUS Act. Clear regulations and bank involvement could increase demand for AVAX as more assets get tokenized. (Coinspeaker, Yahoo Finance)
2. $300 Million Corporate Treasury Investment (October 28, 2025)
What happened: AgriFORCE Growing Systems, a company listed on Nasdaq, plans to raise $300 million through a private investment round to buy and hold AVAX tokens. The company will rebrand as AVAX One and aims to earn rewards by staking AVAX, while supporting the growth of the Avalanche ecosystem. This effort is backed by Hivemind Capital.
Why it matters: This move is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin, showing growing institutional trust in AVAX. Avalanche offers staking rewards of about 6.7% annually and has a deflationary mechanism that reduces token supply over time. These features make AVAX attractive for companies looking to hold digital assets long-term without causing price drops from selling. (Binance Square, CoinJournal)
3. Regulated Stablecoin Launch (October 28, 2025)
What happened: South Korea introduced its first fully regulated stablecoin called KRW1 on Avalanche, created through a partnership between BDACS and Woori Bank. This comes after warnings from the Bank of Korea about risks related to unregulated stablecoins but shows confidence in Avalanche’s security for compliant digital assets.
Why it matters: This is a neutral development for AVAX. While regulatory oversight continues, the launch of KRW1 highlights Avalanche’s appeal to institutions that need transparent and interoperable blockchain solutions. It also strengthens Avalanche’s position in Asia’s real-world asset (RWA) market. (Yahoo Finance, Decrypt)
Conclusion
Avalanche is carving out a strong role in institutional finance, from supporting Japan’s banks to corporate treasury strategies and regulated stablecoins. With crypto adoption growing rapidly in Asia, Avalanche has a chance to outpace Ethereum in enterprise tokenization and become a leading platform for digital finance.
What is expected in the development of AVAX?
Avalanche’s roadmap is focused on growing institutional use, improving subnet scalability, and expanding its overall ecosystem.
- Treasury Initiative (September 2025) – Raising $1 billion to create corporate treasuries that buy AVAX at discounted prices.
- Subnet Customization (Ongoing) – Upgrades for gaming and business applications using the HyperSDK.
- Fee Reductions (Q4 2025) – After the Octane upgrade, further cost-cutting measures to lower transaction fees.
- RWA Partnerships (2025–2026) – Collaborations with companies like Toyota and WeBlock to bring real-world assets onto Avalanche.
Deep Dive
1. Treasury Initiative (September 2025)
Overview: The Avalanche Foundation plans to raise $1 billion to set up two treasury companies in the U.S. These companies will buy AVAX tokens at discounted rates to support the network. The first deal, backed by Hivemind Capital and advised by Anthony Scaramucci, targets a Nasdaq-listed company by September 2025. A second $500 million SPAC deal with Dragonfly Capital is expected in October 2025 (Cointribune).
What this means: This is positive for AVAX because it could reduce the number of tokens available on the market, help stabilize prices, and attract big investors. However, challenges like regulatory approval and investor interest could slow down progress.
2. Subnet Customization (Ongoing)
Overview: Avalanche is improving its subnets, which are like smaller, dedicated blockchains within its network, to better serve gaming and business needs. The HyperSDK tool lets developers build custom blockchains with specific rules, while the Interchain Messaging (ICM) protocol allows easy transfer of assets between subnets and the main Avalanche chain (Blockworks).
What this means: This could be good for Avalanche, especially in gaming projects like FIFA Collect and MapleStory N, and decentralized finance (DeFi). But if too many small blockchains appear, it might spread out liquidity and reduce overall efficiency.
3. Fee Reductions (Q4 2025)
Overview: After the Octane upgrade in April 2025, which cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s main chain by 43%, further improvements are planned. These include asynchronous execution and dynamic fee systems that could lower costs by up to 96% compared to early 2025 (The Defiant).
What this means: Lower fees are great for users and developers because they encourage more transactions and app activity. However, if fees drop too much without increased usage, it could reduce rewards for those validating the network.
4. RWA Partnerships (2025–2026)
Overview: Avalanche is partnering with real-world companies to bring physical assets onto its blockchain. Examples include Toyota’s Mobility Open Network (MON) for robotaxis and WeBlock’s stablecoin projects in South Korea. Additionally, VanEck launched a $250 million tokenized treasury fund (VBILL) on Avalanche (NewsBTC).
What this means: These partnerships could increase Avalanche’s real-world usefulness by connecting it to industries like transportation and finance. Success depends on clear regulations and institutional acceptance of tokenized assets.
Conclusion
Avalanche’s roadmap combines strategies to boost liquidity (through treasury deals), improve core technology (subnets and fees), and expand into specific sectors like gaming and real-world assets. While the outlook is mostly positive, risks such as subnet fragmentation and reliance on institutional investors should be watched closely. A key question is whether Avalanche’s subnet-driven gaming growth can surpass Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions by 2026.
What updates are there in the AVAX code base?
Avalanche’s software has received major updates that improve privacy, scalability, and how validators earn rewards.
- Encrypted ERC Standard (July 2025) – New privacy-focused tokens that allow selective auditing.
- Octane Upgrade (April 2025) – Dynamic fees, gas costs cut by 98%, and faster transaction processing.
- Avalanche9000 Validator Model (December 2024) – Pay-as-you-go staking replaces fixed token commitments.
Deep Dive
1. Encrypted ERC Standard (July 2025)
Overview: AvaCloud introduced eERC, a new token standard designed to keep transactions private while still allowing authorized audits.
This technology uses advanced cryptography (zero-knowledge proofs and homomorphic encryption) to hide transaction amounts and balances on the blockchain. Unlike other privacy tools, eERC tokens remain compatible with Ethereum-based apps, so developers can add privacy features without rewriting their code.
Why it matters: This upgrade makes Avalanche attractive for businesses needing privacy and compliance, such as private stablecoins or secure healthcare data. It opens doors for building financial products that protect user data but still meet regulatory requirements. (Source)
2. Octane Upgrade (April 2025)
Overview: A major network update cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain by 98% and introduced fees that adjust based on network congestion.
The upgrade lowered base fees to 0.1 nano AVAX and added pricing that changes depending on how busy the network is. It also set the stage for asynchronous transaction processing later in 2025, which will allow multiple subnetworks to process transactions in parallel. After the upgrade, average transfer fees dropped from about 25 cents to just 1 cent.
Why it matters: Lower fees make Avalanche more affordable and encourage more users and developers to join. Daily transactions reached 2.2 million by August 2025. However, the drop in fees might reduce revenue from transactions, which could affect the token’s economics unless increased usage compensates. (Source)
3. Avalanche9000 Validator Model (December 2024)
Overview: This update replaced the fixed 2,000 AVAX staking requirement for validators with a pay-as-you-go system, cutting subnet deployment costs by 83%.
Validators now pay based on how much computing power and storage they use, making it much cheaper to launch specialized blockchains (subnets). Rewards are also linked to cross-subnet messaging, encouraging better communication between different parts of the Avalanche network.
Why it matters: This change lowers the barrier for developers to create new subnets, leading to projects like FIFA Collect and MapleStory N launching on Avalanche. However, since validators don’t have to lock up as many tokens, there could be more AVAX tokens circulating in the market.
Conclusion
Avalanche’s recent upgrades focus on making the platform more appealing to businesses (with privacy features), improving scalability (with lower fees and faster processing), and giving developers more flexibility (with the new validator model). While these changes strengthen Avalanche’s use cases, the network’s long-term success depends on balancing lower fees with sustainable token economics. The key question is whether increased activity across subnets will make up for reduced revenue per transaction.
Why did the price of AVAX fall?
Avalanche (AVAX) dropped 2.5% in the last 24 hours, falling to $20.13. This decline was sharper than the overall crypto market, which only fell 0.31%. Here’s a quick look at why:
- Technical Pullback – Indicators like RSI (38.25) and MACD suggest bearish momentum.
- Altcoin Market Weakness – The altcoin season index is low (28/100), meaning Bitcoin is currently stronger.
- Delayed Impact of Big News – Recent major announcements, like the TIS partnership and a $300 million treasury plan, haven’t yet stopped short-term selling.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Bearish Signals (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
AVAX is trading below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $24.44 and is facing resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $23.55. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.25 indicates selling pressure, while the MACD histogram shows a weak bullish signal that hasn’t reversed the downward trend.
What this means:
Short-term traders are selling near resistance levels, and low trading volume (turnover ratio of 5.75%) suggests less buying interest. The 24-hour trading volume also dropped slightly by 1.15% to $493 million.
What to watch:
If AVAX closes above $21.08 (the 50% Fibonacci level), it could signal a potential rebound. However, falling below $19.73 (the 7-day SMA) might lead to further losses.
2. Altcoin Market Struggles (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market increased to 59.24% (up 0.29% in 24 hours), while the altcoin season index remains low at 28 out of 100, indicating a strong preference for Bitcoin over altcoins like AVAX.
What this means:
Investors are moving money from altcoins to Bitcoin due to economic uncertainty. AVAX’s 30-day price drop of 30.38% is in line with other altcoins underperforming in this risk-averse environment.
3. News Catalysts Not Yet Priced In (Bullish Offset)
Overview:
There are positive developments for Avalanche, including TIS, a major Japanese payment processor with $6 trillion in transactions, launching a stablecoin platform on Avalanche (Cryptotimes). Also, AgriFORCE is planning a $300 million treasury initiative aimed at buying AVAX.
What this means:
These partnerships highlight Avalanche’s growing appeal to big businesses, but their positive effects haven’t yet been fully reflected in the price. The market may be waiting for official confirmations, like the AgriFORCE deal closing on October 30, before reacting.
Conclusion
AVAX’s recent price drop is mainly due to technical selling and a weak altcoin market, despite promising institutional news. The $20 price level is important—if AVAX can hold above this, it might rebound once the $300 million treasury plan is finalized.
Key watch: Will AVAX stabilize above $20 if the AgriFORCE deal closes smoothly this week?