What could affect the price of NEAR?
NEAR Protocol’s future depends on balancing big institutional interest with technical challenges and competition.
- Institutional Access – Grayscale has filed to convert its NEAR Trust into a spot ETF, which could open the door for regulated investors. However, it’s unclear when or if the SEC will approve it (Cryptopotato).
- Ecosystem Use – NEAR Intents has handled over $7 billion in cross-chain transactions, but most fees go to third parties, not directly benefiting the NEAR token (PANews).
- AI Focus & Competition – NEAR markets itself as an “AI-native Layer 1” blockchain, competing with others like Solana. It needs to prove it can attract more developers and users to justify a higher value (NEAR Protocol).
Deep Dive
1. Spot ETF Filing & Institutional Demand (Positive)
Grayscale filed paperwork with the SEC on January 20, 2026, to turn its NEAR Trust into a spot ETF (ticker: GSNR). If approved, this would allow traditional investors to buy NEAR through a regulated fund, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Currently, the trust is small (around $900,000 in assets), but the ETF could improve liquidity and reduce price swings caused by premiums or discounts.
Why it matters: Approval would be a strong positive signal, showing regulatory acceptance and likely attracting more institutional investors. However, the approval process could take months and isn’t guaranteed, so any price impact may be delayed.
2. NEAR Intents Growth & Value Capture (Mixed)
NEAR Intents is a tool that makes it easier to swap assets across different blockchains. It has processed over $7 billion in total volume, with daily peaks over $100 million, supporting more than 115 assets. While this shows strong usage and validates NEAR’s technology, most transaction fees go to third-party service providers rather than directly benefiting the NEAR token or its base layer.
Why it matters: High usage is good for NEAR’s reputation and ecosystem growth, but the token itself isn’t capturing much value from this activity. For NEAR’s price to rise sustainably, the economic model needs to change so that token holders benefit more from Intents’ success.
3. AI Narrative & Competitive Landscape (Neutral)
NEAR is positioning itself as the blockchain built for AI applications, using technology like sharding to handle large workloads and developing “Shade Agents” to support AI tasks. It’s often mentioned alongside other AI-focused blockchains like ICP and RNDR. However, it faces stiff competition from established blockchains like Solana and Ethereum. NEAR must show it can attract more developers and unique AI projects to stand out.
Why it matters: The AI angle could attract speculative investors interested in the theme, which helps sentiment. But without clear advantages or faster adoption than competitors, NEAR may struggle to maintain a higher valuation over time.
Conclusion
NEAR’s price depends on turning its AI and cross-chain technology stories into real, revenue-generating use cases while overcoming technical challenges. Investors should watch for progress on the Grayscale ETF and on-chain data showing better value capture for the token.
Will the Grayscale NEAR ETF get approved before interest in AI fades, giving NEAR the institutional boost it needs? That’s the key question moving forward.
What are people saying about NEAR?
The NEAR community is cautiously optimistic, balancing some technical concerns with positive developments like a new ETF filing. Here’s what’s trending:
- A major ETF filing is seen as a key step toward institutional adoption.
- Technical traders are divided, closely watching a critical $1.50 support level.
- The AI angle is gaining momentum as a long-term growth driver.
- Strong ecosystem growth, led by NEAR Intents, is building solid fundamentals.
Deep Dive
1. @Grayscale: Grayscale files to convert NEAR Trust into spot ETF — bullish
"Grayscale has filed a Form S-1 with the U.S. SEC to convert its Grayscale Near Trust into a spot NEAR ETF listed on NYSE Arca."
– @Grayscale (Source: Cryptopotato · 2026-01-21)
What this means: This is a positive sign for NEAR because it shows growing interest from big financial institutions. If approved, it could bring in more regulated investment money, providing steady support for the token.
2. @CryptoJournaal: NEAR stuck in bearish trend, tests $1.50 support — bearish
"NEAR remains in a prolonged bearish trend... consolidating near the lower end of its multi-month range at $1.50–$1.60."
– @CryptoJournaal (24.2K followers · 2026-01-20 15:42 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign in the short term. NEAR is facing selling pressure and weak momentum. If the price closes below $1.50 on a daily basis, it could drop further toward $1.00.
3. @NEARProtocol: Positioning as the blockchain for the AI economy — bullish
"NEAR is the blockchain for AI... to ensure that future agent networks can transact on-chain."
– @NEARProtocol (Source: X · 2025-07-21)
What this means: This is a promising long-term story. NEAR is focusing on supporting AI-related projects, which could attract developers and businesses building decentralized AI applications. This could increase demand and use of the network over time.
4. @NEARWEEK: NEAR Intents shows explosive volume growth — bullish
"NEAR Intents reached $10 billion in trading volume in 2025, making it the fastest-growing cross-chain trading infrastructure."
– @NEARWEEK (79.1K followers · 2025-09-30 12:10 UTC)
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What this means: High trading volume is a strong sign that NEAR’s technology is being widely used. This can lead to more fees and network effects, which strengthens the overall value of the ecosystem.
Conclusion
The outlook for NEAR is mixed but leans toward cautious optimism. While technical charts show some downward pressure near cycle lows, this is balanced by growing institutional interest through the ETF filing and strong fundamental growth in AI and cross-chain trading. Keep an eye on a daily close above $2.30 as a possible signal that the trend is stabilizing.
What is the latest news about NEAR?
NEAR Protocol is making moves to attract big investors and integrate artificial intelligence, even as the market faces uncertainty. Here are the key updates:
- Grayscale Files NEAR ETF (January 21, 2026) – Grayscale plans to convert its NEAR Trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) to improve liquidity.
- NEAR AI Cloud Launch (December 3, 2025) – NEAR introduces privacy-focused AI tools that are gaining traction with businesses.
- Bitwise Spot ETF Pipeline (December 2025) – NEAR is included in Bitwise’s broader plan to launch altcoin ETFs.
Deep Dive
1. Grayscale Files NEAR ETF (January 21, 2026)
Overview:
Grayscale submitted paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to turn its $900,000 NEAR Trust into a spot ETF, which would trade under the ticker GSNR. This ETF would use Coinbase Custody to securely hold assets and could allow staking (earning rewards by holding NEAR) through third parties if regulators approve.
What this means:
This move shows growing interest from large, traditional investors in altcoin ETFs, following similar products for Bitcoin and Ethereum. If approved, it would give more regulated and easier access to NEAR for mainstream investors. However, NEAR’s price stayed steady at $1.53 after the announcement, suggesting some investors remain cautious about immediate demand. (Cryptopotato)
2. NEAR AI Cloud & Private Chat (December 3, 2025)
Overview:
NEAR launched its AI Cloud and Private Chat services, which use advanced Intel and NVIDIA hardware to keep data secure and private. Partners like Brave browser and Phala Network are already using these tools, aiming to reach over 100 million users.
What this means:
This strengthens NEAR’s role in building AI infrastructure that respects user privacy. By using trusted execution environments (TEEs), NEAR ensures sensitive data stays protected, making it attractive for developers working on AI applications that require high security. (Assemble AI)
3. Bitwise’s Altcoin ETF Ambitions (December 2025)
Overview:
Bitwise filed to launch 11 single-asset ETFs, including ones for NEAR, AAVE, and UNI, following its earlier efforts with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
What this means:
Though not focused solely on NEAR, this shows a broader trend of institutional investors looking to diversify into altcoins. The success of these ETFs depends on SEC approvals, with some progress seen in Ethereum and Solana ETFs paving the way. (CoinMarketCap)
Conclusion
NEAR Protocol is positioning itself at the intersection of institutional investment products and AI technology. While its price hasn’t moved much in the short term, clearer regulations around altcoin ETFs could unlock more liquidity and interest. Grayscale’s plan to offer staking through its ETF could also set a new benchmark for how crypto investment products are designed.
What is expected in the development of NEAR?
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is making important progress with these key updates planned for 2026:
- House of Stake Governance – Introducing stronger on-chain decision-making where validators and token holders have more control.
- NEAR Intents Improvements – Expanding support for more blockchains and making cross-chain swaps faster and more private.
- AI Ecosystem Growth – Building tools and partnerships to support user-owned AI applications on the NEAR network.
In-Depth Look
1. House of Stake Governance (2026)
What it is: After launching the House of Stake in late 2025, NEAR is now focusing on making governance decisions binding. This means that proposals approved by validators and veNEAR token holders will be officially implemented. Key programs include supporting validators who help secure the network and rewarding long-term token holders.
Why it matters: This strengthens NEAR’s network security and encourages more people to stake their tokens, which could reduce the number of tokens being sold on the market. However, the process might be complicated and could slow down decision-making or cause disagreements among validators.
2. NEAR Intents Enhancements (2026)
What it is: NEAR Intents, which already handled over $10 billion in transactions in 2025, will add support for more blockchains like Litecoin and Monad. It will also connect with popular platforms such as Ledger Wallet. Improvements will focus on making cross-chain swaps quicker and adding privacy features for AI-powered agents.
Why it matters: Expanding to more blockchains and improving speed and privacy can attract more users and increase transaction fees for NEAR. On the downside, integrating new blockchains can be technically challenging, and competing protocols might limit growth.
3. AI Ecosystem Expansion (2026)
What it is: NEAR is advancing its vision of “user-owned AI” by growing its AI Cloud and Private Chat services launched in December 2025. This includes providing developers with tools to create verifiable AI agents and partnering with companies to bring confidential computing to AI applications.
Why it matters: Integrating AI could boost developer interest and open up new business opportunities on NEAR. Risks include slower adoption of AI tools and potential hardware limitations.
Conclusion
NEAR’s 2026 plans focus on improving governance, expanding cross-chain capabilities, and integrating AI technologies. These efforts aim to strengthen NEAR’s role as a leading decentralized platform. The big question is how well NEAR can execute these initiatives to evolve from a Layer-1 blockchain into a multi-chain coordinator.
What updates are there in the NEAR code base?
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is making big strides with major upgrades to its technology and launching new AI-focused products.
- Nightshade 2.0 & 1 Million Transactions Per Second (TPS) (September 2025) – Improved scalability by making the network faster and more efficient.
- Nearcore v2.5.0 Protocol Upgrades (March 2025) – Enhanced how the network manages data to handle more activity smoothly.
- NEAR AI Cloud & Private Chat Launch (December 2025) – Introduced secure, private AI services that protect user data.
Deep Dive
1. Nightshade 2.0 & 1 Million TPS Milestone (September 2025)
What happened: NEAR upgraded its network with Nightshade 2.0, which allows validators (the computers that confirm transactions) to work without storing the entire blockchain data. This makes it easier for more people to participate and keeps the network decentralized. Along with improvements to how the network splits and processes data (called sharding), NEAR reached a huge milestone—processing 1 million transactions per second in tests.
Why it matters: This shows NEAR can support very large and fast applications, like decentralized finance (DeFi) that works across different blockchains and AI running directly on the network. It sets NEAR up as a strong platform for the future of web3 technology.
(Source)
2. Nearcore v2.5.0 Protocol Upgrades (March 2025)
What happened: NEAR released an update that improved how the network scales by increasing the number of data shards from 6 to 8. It also introduced a new system to better manage data flow between these shards, helping the network handle more transactions without slowing down.
Why it matters: These upgrades strengthen NEAR’s infrastructure, making it more reliable and ready to grow as more users and applications join the network.
(Source)
3. NEAR AI Cloud & Private Chat Launch (December 2025)
What happened: NEAR launched new AI products that keep user data private and secure. Using advanced hardware security features from Intel and NVIDIA, these services process AI requests in a way that users can verify their data is protected and never exposed.
Why it matters: This moves NEAR beyond just blockchain technology into private AI applications, attracting users who care about data privacy and ownership.
(Source)
Conclusion
NEAR Protocol is rapidly evolving by improving its core technology to handle more users and transactions, while also expanding into the growing field of AI with privacy-focused products. This combination positions NEAR as a powerful platform for developers building the next generation of secure, cross-chain applications. How these advancements will drive new developer interest and user adoption remains an exciting story to watch.
Why did the price of NEAR fall?
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) dropped 2.21% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 1.1%. This decline adds to a sharp 12.88% loss over the past week. Here’s why:
- Overall Market Weakness – A cautious mood in crypto, with big withdrawals from ETFs, put pressure on altcoins like NEAR.
- Technical Downtrend – NEAR is trading below important moving averages, with indicators suggesting more downside risk.
- ETF News Lost Momentum – Grayscale’s plan to convert NEAR Trust into a spot ETF caused only a brief price jump before selling resumed.
Deep Dive
1. Overall Market Weakness (Negative Impact)
On January 22, 2026, the entire crypto market saw selling pressure, with the total market value dropping 1.1% in one day. This was partly due to large withdrawals from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, signaling that big investors are cautious (AMBCrypto).
NEAR, being a more volatile altcoin, tends to move more dramatically when the market shifts. When investors pull money out of major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum because they want to avoid risk, altcoins like NEAR often experience even bigger drops. The current "Fear" level on the Fear & Greed Index is 34, showing that traders are generally cautious and less willing to hold risky assets right now.
2. Technical Downtrend (Negative Impact)
NEAR’s current price of $1.51 is below its 7-day, 30-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which confirms a strong downward trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 39.86, showing bearish momentum but not yet oversold (which would be below 30).
This means there is ongoing selling pressure and little buying interest. NEAR is testing the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level at $1.53, which now acts as resistance. If NEAR can’t break above this level, it might retest the recent low near $1.43.
Watch for a daily close above the 7-day SMA (around $1.64) — that would be a sign that the price might start to recover soon.
3. ETF News Lost Momentum (Mixed Impact)
On January 20, 2026, Grayscale filed to convert its NEAR Trust into a spot ETF (Cryptopotato). This news caused NEAR’s price to jump about 3% during the day, but the gains disappeared by the next day.
This quick reversal suggests that the market either expected this news already or sees regulatory approval as uncertain and far off. The ETF announcement didn’t create lasting buying interest because the overall market and technical conditions remain bearish, leading to a “sell the news” reaction.
Conclusion
NEAR’s recent price drop is due to a mix of weak overall market conditions, clear technical downtrends, and a failed boost from ETF news. For most investors, this means NEAR is likely to stay volatile and risky until the broader market sentiment improves or NEAR can climb back above key technical levels.
Key level to watch: Can NEAR hold the $1.43 low, or will falling below that trigger further losses?