Why did the price of DOT go up?

Polkadot (DOT) increased by 0.68% in the past 24 hours, following a general rise in the cryptocurrency market (+1.9%). The main factors behind this growth include excitement about an upcoming ETF, positive technical signals, and improvements in governance.

1. ETF Progress (Positive Outlook) – 21Shares’ Polkadot ETF was listed on the DTCC, showing progress toward regulatory approval.
2. Technical Signals (Mixed) – DOT moved above important Fibonacci levels with bullish momentum indicators.
3. Governance Updates (Neutral) – The Web3 Foundation improved treasury oversight, which could boost investor confidence.

Detailed Analysis

1. ETF Momentum (Positive Outlook)

Summary:
On October 1, 21Shares’ Polkadot ETF (TDOT) was added to the DTCC website, an important step toward approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Experts believe there’s about a 90% chance the ETF will be approved by November 8, 2025 (21Shares).

Why it matters:

• Approval of the ETF could bring large institutional investments, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which attracted over $74 billion.
• After the announcement, DOT’s price rose by 2%, though overall market caution kept gains moderate.

What to watch:

• The SEC’s final decision deadline on November 8 and how spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs perform.

2. Technical Signals (Mixed)

Summary:
DOT surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.32 and stayed above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4.03. The MACD indicator turned positive (+0.0168), suggesting short-term upward momentum.

Why it matters:

• Buyers defended the $4.05 support level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.06 shows the market is neutral—not overbought or oversold.
• Resistance levels at $4.45 and $4.61 could limit further gains unless trading volume increases.

What to watch:

• Whether DOT can consistently close above $4.32 to confirm a strong upward trend.

3. Governance & Ecosystem Activity (Neutral)

Summary:
The Web3 Foundation has tightened rules around treasury proposal voting to reduce unnecessary spending, including burning 3,438 DOT from Coretime sales (Binance News).

Why it matters:

• These changes improve transparency and may encourage long-term investors, though the immediate effect on price is minimal.
• Decentralized finance (DeFi) activity is growing: Hydration DEX reached $400 million in total value locked (TVL), and Bifrost staking locked 19 million DOT.

Conclusion

DOT’s recent gains show cautious optimism driven by ETF progress and solid technical support. However, overall market conditions and regulatory decisions will play a major role going forward. Key point to watch: Can DOT maintain support at $4.32 and gain enough volume to break through resistance near $4.60?

What could affect the price of DOT?

Polkadot’s price outlook depends on upcoming technology upgrades, potential ETF approvals, and changes to its token supply and rewards system.

1. Tokenomics changes – Introducing a supply cap creates scarcity, but reduced staking rewards might lead to short-term selling pressure.
2. Polkadot 2.0 upgrades – New features like Elastic Scaling and the JAM protocol could attract more developers.
3. ETF approvals – SEC decisions on spot DOT ETFs could bring in institutional investors.

Deep Dive

1. Tokenomics Shift: Scarcity vs Staking Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Polkadot’s governing body approved Referendum 1710, which limits the total DOT supply to 2.1 billion tokens, down from a previously expected 3.4 billion. Starting in March 2026, the annual issuance of new DOT will decrease every two years, lowering inflation from 7.4% to 3.3%.

What this means:

• Positive: This creates scarcity similar to Bitcoin’s fixed supply, potentially supporting higher prices over the long term with a 44% smaller supply by 2040.
• Negative: The price dropped about 6% right after the announcement, reflecting concerns that lower staking rewards might cause validators to stop staking and sell their tokens.

Key point: Keep an eye on the percentage of DOT being staked, which is currently around 50%, to see if validators start unstaking (The Block).

2. Polkadot 2.0 & JAM Upgrade (Bullish)

Overview:

• Elastic Scaling (active since August): Parachains—independent blockchains connected to Polkadot—can rent additional computing power paid in DOT tokens.
• JAM Protocol (expected Q4 2025): This upgrade will replace the current Relay Chain with a modular design capable of handling over 1 million transactions per second (TPS).

What this means:

• Increased demand for DOT as parachains pay for extra computing resources, like Mythical Games reserving 12 cores.
• Testnet results showed 143,000 TPS at only 23% capacity, indicating strong performance that could attract more Web3 developers and projects (Coindesk).

3. Regulatory Catalysts: Spot ETF Race (High Risk/Reward)

Overview:
21Shares’ Polkadot ETF (TDOT) was added to the DTCC’s list in September. Analysts estimate a 60-90% chance of SEC approval by early November. However, the SEC delayed its decision to October 2 due to government shutdown issues.

What this means:

• Approval could bring significant new investment, similar to the impact Bitcoin ETFs have had, especially given Polkadot’s $6.9 billion market cap.
• A rejection might cause price drops, similar to the 3% decline seen when a Litecoin ETF was delayed (Cryptotimes).

Conclusion

Polkadot’s price is caught between the benefits of a capped supply and the risks of lower staking rewards. Meanwhile, the JAM upgrade and ETF speculation offer potential for strong gains. Key dates and indicators to watch include:

1. October 15 – Next coretime auction pricing updates
2. November 8 – SEC’s final decision on the 21Shares ETF
3. Staking APR trends after the supply cap takes effect

Will DOT’s growing institutional appeal overcome its past reputation as a “deadchain”?

What are people saying about DOT?

Polkadot’s DOT is approaching key breakout levels, driven by excitement around a potential ETF approval and upgrades within its ecosystem. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Traders are watching for a breakout above $4.25 after DOT jumped 6% on strong trading volume.
2. 21Shares’ Polkadot ETF got listed on DTCC, sparking optimism with analysts giving it a 90% chance of SEC approval.
3. The Web3 Foundation is tightening control over its treasury, which could boost long-term trust in the project.

Deep Dive

1. @CoinDesk: DOT jumps 6% as buyers target $4.25 – bullish

“Support has formed around $4.05, with resistance at $4.11... volume peaked at 7M DOT during the rally.”
– CoinDesk (1.2M followers · Oct 5, 2025)
View original post
What this means: The 6% price increase on October 1 shows growing buying interest. The $4.11 level is an important hurdle to clear. If trading volume stays above 5 million DOT, it could confirm a move toward $4.25.

2. @Coingape: Polkadot ETF listed on DTCC – bullish

“21Shares’ TDOT ETF appeared on DTCC... Bloomberg analysts estimate 90% SEC approval chance.”
– Coingape (890K followers · Oct 1, 2025)
View original post
What this means: The ETF’s listing on DTCC shows growing institutional interest. However, the final decision by the SEC, expected by November 2025, will be key to how much this impacts DOT’s price.

3. @Binance: Web3 Foundation strengthens treasury oversight – neutral

“W3F will selectively vote on proposals to prevent misuse of Polkadot’s $245M treasury.”
– Binance Square (6.5M followers · Oct 1, 2025)
View original post
What this means: By tightening control over its funds, the Web3 Foundation aims to build trust among investors. While this is positive for the long run, it might slow down funding for new projects in the short term.

Conclusion

The outlook for Polkadot is cautiously optimistic. Traders are focused on the $4.11 to $4.25 price range as a potential breakout zone. Key upcoming events include the SEC’s ETF decision in November 2025 and the launch of Polkadot 2.0’s mainnet expected in late 2025. Keep an eye on the $4.05 support level—holding above this could indicate buyers are accumulating before the next price increase.

What is the latest news about DOT?

Polkadot is making moves with ETF progress, governance improvements, and changes to its token supply. Here’s what’s happening:

1. ETF Progress (Oct 1, 2025) – 21Shares’ Polkadot ETF got listed on the DTCC, a key step toward SEC approval.
2. Governance Update (Oct 1, 2025) – The Web3 Foundation is tightening control over treasury spending through OpenGov voting.
3. Tokenomics Change (Sep 16, 2025) – DOT’s total supply is now capped at 2.1 billion to create scarcity.

In Detail

1. ETF Progress (October 1, 2025)

What happened:
21Shares’ Polkadot ETF (TDOT) was added to the DTCC’s eligibility list. This is an important step toward getting the green light from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Experts believe there’s about a 90% chance the ETF will be approved by November. Bloomberg also noted that Polkadot has been eligible for futures trading on Coinbase since July 2024. If approved, this ETF could attract big institutional investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which brought in over $74 billion.

Why it matters:
Approval would likely increase DOT’s liquidity and make it easier for more investors to buy in. However, a U.S. government shutdown on October 3, 2025, could delay the process and add some uncertainty. (CoinGape)

2. Governance Update (October 1, 2025)

What happened:
The Web3 Foundation announced it will be more selective in how it votes on Polkadot treasury proposals through OpenGov. They plan to only support proposals with clear milestones, explain their voting decisions publicly, and avoid conflicts of interest.

Why it matters:
This move is generally positive for the health of the Polkadot ecosystem. It should help reduce unnecessary spending — for example, $25 million was spent from the treasury in April 2025. However, some may worry this could lead to too much control being centralized. (Binance)

3. Tokenomics Change (September 16, 2025)

What happened:
Polkadot’s community approved Referendum 1710, which sets a maximum supply of 2.1 billion DOT tokens. Before this, DOT had no supply cap and inflation was unlimited. The new rules fix annual token issuance at 120 million DOT, with about 1.91 billion expected to be in circulation by 2040.

Why it matters:
This is a positive long-term development. By limiting supply, DOT’s value could increase over time, similar to Bitcoin’s scarcity model. For now, staking rewards remain at 11.5%, and 55% of all DOT tokens are currently staked. (Crypto Pulse)

Conclusion

Polkadot is positioned for a big Q4 with ETF approval on the horizon, stronger governance, and a new token supply cap. With the SEC’s final ETF decision expected by November and ongoing upgrades like JAM testing, the big question is: will DOT break past its $4.11 resistance level and challenge its yearly highs?

What is expected in the development of DOT?

Polkadot’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:

1. EVM Compatibility (December 2025) – Full integration with Ethereum to attract developers and decentralized apps (dApps).
2. JAM Protocol Launch (Q4 2025) – A modular upgrade replacing the Relay Chain to boost scalability.
3. DOT Supply Hard Cap (March 2026) – Limits the total DOT tokens to 2.1 billion to control inflation.
4. Stablecoin pUSD Governance (Ongoing) – Community-backed stablecoin secured by DOT tokens.

In-Depth Look

1. EVM Compatibility (December 2025)

What’s happening: Polkadot plans to fully support the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which means developers can move their Ethereum-based apps to Polkadot without changing their code. This is part of the Polkadot 2.0 upgrade and will let developers use Solidity contracts on Polkadot’s faster network (source).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Makes it easier for Ethereum developers to build on Polkadot, growing its ecosystem.
• Consideration: Polkadot will compete with Ethereum Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum, which might affect how much this helps.

2. JAM Protocol Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: The JAM (Join-Accumulate Machine) protocol will replace Polkadot’s current Relay Chain with a modular system made of parallel chains. This upgrade aims to eliminate transaction fees and speed up processing. Supported by 38 development teams, it’s designed to turn Polkadot into a “blockchain supercomputer” (source).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Greatly improves scalability, targeting over 1 million transactions per second (TPS), and gives developers more flexibility.
• Consideration: The upgrade is complex and could face delays if technical challenges arise.

3. DOT Supply Hard Cap (March 2026)

What’s happening: Polkadot has set a maximum supply of 2.1 billion DOT tokens through Referendum 1710. This will reduce the yearly creation of new DOT from 120 million to about 56 million by 2026, lowering inflation to around 3.3% (source).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Limiting supply can increase DOT’s value over time, similar to Bitcoin’s approach.
• Neutral: The immediate price effect depends on overall market conditions.

4. Stablecoin pUSD Governance (Ongoing)

What’s happening: Polkadot is considering RFC-155, a proposal to launch pUSD, a decentralized stablecoin backed by DOT tokens. This aims to reduce dependence on popular stablecoins like USDT and USDC. However, some community members are cautious due to past issues with Acala’s aUSD stablecoin in 2022 (source).

Why it matters:

• Positive: A native stablecoin could boost decentralized finance (DeFi) activity and cross-chain transactions on Polkadot.
• Consideration: Trust concerns from previous failures may slow adoption unless strong safeguards are in place.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s roadmap focuses on making the network more compatible with Ethereum (EVM), scalable (JAM), economically sound (hard cap), and DeFi-friendly (pUSD). While successful implementation and clear regulations—like decisions on ETFs—are important, these upgrades position DOT to attract both developers and institutional interest. The big question remains: Will the JAM protocol’s modular design finally realize Polkadot’s vision of an “Internet of Blockchains”?

What updates are there in the DOT code base?

Polkadot’s technology is making big strides with important upgrades and new tools designed for developers.

1. Polkadot 2.0 Launch (September 7, 2025) – A major redesign to improve scalability and smart contract capabilities.
2. Polkadot-API v1.15.0 (July 2025) – Added new features for easier data access and handling by developers.
3. Open Source Bounties (June 2025) – Funded key projects like DotRing Suite and OpentGov to boost ecosystem tools.

Deep Dive

1. Polkadot 2.0 Launch (September 7, 2025)

Overview: Polkadot 2.0 brings a new network design aimed at supporting more advanced decentralized apps (dApps) and institutional users. A highlight is the JAM protocol (Join-Accumulate Machine), which allows smart contracts to run faster—handling up to 1 million transactions per second—and improves communication between different blockchains.

What this means: This upgrade is very positive for Polkadot. It makes the network more scalable and versatile, able to support complex applications like artificial intelligence and decentralized finance. Developers also get more flexibility with a hybrid environment that supports both Ethereum-compatible and Polkadot-native smart contracts. (Source)

2. Polkadot-API v1.15.0 (July 2025)

Overview: The latest software development kit (SDK) update introduced rawQuery, which lets developers access low-level data storage directly, and improved how binary data is handled with BitSequence.

What this means: While this update doesn’t change Polkadot’s overall performance, it’s important for developers. It makes it easier to work with specific data and build advanced features, such as privacy-focused applications, by reducing technical hurdles. (Source)

3. Open Source Bounties (June 2025)

Overview: Polkadot allocated $450,000 to support open-source projects like DotRing Suite (a Python toolkit) and OpentGov (a governance tool using Telegram), helping improve the tools available to the community.

What this means: This is a strong positive for Polkadot. Funding these projects encourages the development of public resources that fill important gaps in cross-platform support and decentralized governance, which are crucial for the network’s long-term success. (Source)

Conclusion

Polkadot’s technology is advancing quickly. The launch of Polkadot 2.0 and improvements to its developer tools are strengthening its foundation, while funding for open-source projects is helping the ecosystem grow. These upgrades could make Polkadot more competitive with Ethereum in 2026 and beyond.