Why did the price of GRT fall?

The Graph (GRT) dropped 5.69% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 4.15%. Here’s why:

1. Technical Breakdown – Important price support levels were broken, leading to automated selling.
2. Sentiment Shock – GRT hit a new all-time low at $0.0351, causing panic among investors.
3. Altcoin Weakness – Money shifted toward Bitcoin, with Bitcoin’s market dominance increasing by 0.28% in 24 hours.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview: GRT’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.04139 and tested a key Fibonacci retracement level at $0.03524. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 37.79, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD indicator flattened, signaling a lack of strong buying pressure.
What this means: Traders saw these technical signals as bearish, triggering stop-loss orders and short-term selling. Trading volume dropped 34.68% to $26.48 million, indicating less market activity and increased price swings.
Key watch: If GRT stays below $0.035, it could test its 2025 low of $0.03265.

2. Sentiment Shock (Negative Impact)

Overview: On December 19, 2025, GRT hit a new all-time low of $0.03519, down nearly 99% from its peak in 2021. Social media posts (see @cryptolevier) spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), highlighting the psychological effect of hitting new lows.
What this means: Many retail investors holding GRT for years faced big losses, leading to panic selling. Data from derivatives markets showed heavy liquidations, especially on long positions, with $149.91 million in Bitcoin liquidations pointing to a broader risk-off mood.

3. Altcoin Weakness (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index dropped to 27, down 12.9% for the week, showing that investors are moving money from altcoins to Bitcoin. GRT’s price movement became more closely tied to Bitcoin, with a 24-hour correlation of 0.89. However, GRT’s beta of 1.3 means it tends to move more sharply than Bitcoin, especially on the downside.
What this means: As a mid-sized infrastructure token, GRT faced heavier selling pressure in a cautious market. Its 24-hour turnover ratio of 6.8% suggests limited liquidity, which can increase price volatility.

Conclusion

The recent drop in The Graph (GRT) is due to a mix of technical sell signals, investor panic at new lows, and a general weakness in altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin. Despite these challenges, The Graph’s core fundamentals remain strong, with 11.6 billion quarterly queries and inclusion in the Grayscale AI Fund. The key question now is whether GRT can hold the $0.035 support level ahead of the Horizon mainnet upgrade expected this quarter.

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What could affect the price of GRT?

The future of The Graph (GRT) depends on improvements to its technology, how widely Web3 is adopted, and overall market conditions.

1. Horizon Upgrade Impact – Expanding the network could increase usefulness and value (positive).
2. Competition & Adoption – Early lead versus other data indexing projects creates mixed outcomes.
3. Market Risks – Tied to Bitcoin’s performance and regulatory changes, which could hurt prices (negative).

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Cross-Chain Growth (Positive Outlook)

Overview: The Graph’s Horizon upgrade, expected in December 2025, adds new features like modular data services. This means it can do more than just organize blockchain data—it can also support real-time analytics and AI tools. Plus, with Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), GRT tokens can move between different blockchains like Arbitrum, Base, and Solana. This could increase how much people stake GRT and how often its services are used.

What this means: These improvements could attract more developers and businesses, linking GRT’s value closely to the growth of Web3 technologies. For example, integrating with Solana might boost network activity by 15–25%, according to The Graph.

2. Web3 Adoption vs. Competitive Risks (Mixed Outlook)

Overview: The Graph indexes data for over 90 blockchains and supports popular decentralized apps (dApps) like Uniswap. However, competitors like Pocket Network and Covalent are also trying to capture this market.

What this means: GRT benefits from being an early player and supporting multiple blockchains (it earned $8.11 million in query fees on Arbitrum in Q3 2025). But if developers move slowly to its decentralized network, growth could be limited.

3. Market Risks & Token Economics (Negative Outlook)

Overview: GRT’s price tends to follow Bitcoin closely (with a 0.78 correlation this year), so it’s vulnerable when Bitcoin’s price drops. Also, GRT has a 3% yearly inflation rate from rewards given to those who index data, which can create selling pressure unless more people stake their tokens.

What this means: If the crypto market turns bearish, GRT’s price could fall below $0.03, testing lows seen earlier in 2025. Increasing the staking rate above 40% (currently around 32%) would help reduce the supply pressure.

Conclusion

The success of GRT depends on delivering its planned upgrades while navigating broader market challenges. While new features and cross-chain capabilities offer growth potential, Bitcoin’s price swings and token inflation remain risks. Will staking grow fast enough to balance new token issuance in early 2026? Keep an eye on GRT’s staking dashboard for updates.

What are people saying about GRT?

The Graph’s community is divided between big-picture optimism and short-term ups and downs. Here’s what’s making waves right now:

1. A falling wedge chart pattern suggests a possible breakout
2. The Horizon Upgrade boosts hopes for long-term usefulness
3. Large token sales and scheduled token releases are putting pressure on sentiment

In-Depth Look

1. Falling wedge pattern points to bullish potential

Crypto analyst @CryptocamT notes:
"Macro falling wedge pattern at historical accumulation zone – breakout with volume could trigger 1400% rally."
– Crypto Cam (1,337 followers · 3,769 posts · Jan 9, 2026)
See original post
What this means: Technical traders view The Graph’s recent 41% drop over 90 days as a setup for a big move. If the price closes above $0.045 (about 15% higher than now), it could confirm a strong upward trend.

2. Horizon Upgrade adoption is a positive sign

Blockchain expert @deexra shares:
"Horizon’s modular architecture enabled 11.6B Q4 queries – GRT now serves AI models via verifiable data streams."
– D2GmRx+🦊💹⚡️ (804 followers · 8,183 posts · Dec 25, 2025)
See original post
What this means: The December 2025 upgrade improved The Graph’s technology, allowing it to handle more data queries and support AI applications. However, the price dropped about 15% after the upgrade, indicating the market hasn’t fully reacted yet.

3. Token unlocks create selling pressure

Market watcher @koreaOnchain reports:
"Token Lock wallet (#2 holder) dumps 18M GRT monthly – equivalent to 7% of daily volume."
– yoonseok (835 followers · 2,600 posts · Dec 20, 2025)
See original post
What this means: Large holders are selling off tokens regularly, releasing about $2.1 million worth each month at current prices. This steady selling can limit price gains and keep the market under pressure.

Conclusion

Opinions on The Graph (GRT) are mixed. Developers highlight its important role in Web3 infrastructure, with over 160,000 delegators despite an 82% drop from its all-time high. Traders, however, are cautious due to ongoing selling pressure. Key price levels to watch are $0.032 to $0.045. Closing above $0.045 for the month could signal a trend reversal, while falling below $0.035 might lead to new lows. Keep an eye on network metrics to track query fee growth compared to token inflation.

What is the latest news about GRT?

The Graph is currently in a quiet phase, focusing on important upgrades and seeing some market activity that’s catching attention. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:

1. Trading Volume Doubles (January 10, 2026) – The 24-hour trading volume for GRT doubled compared to recent averages, showing increased interest from traders as the price rose.
2. 2026 Guide Explains GRT’s Purpose (January 6, 2026) – A detailed guide was released explaining how The Graph works, its token economics, and its role in the decentralized web (Web3).
3. Horizon Mainnet Launches (December 11, 2025) – The Graph rolled out its Horizon upgrade, moving to a new modular system that improves scalability and supports real-time data services.

In-Depth Look

1. Trading Volume Doubles (January 10, 2026)

What happened: On January 10, GRT’s trading volume over 24 hours jumped to more than $40 million, twice the recent average. This came with a price increase to about $0.0445, an 8.17% rise during the day, though the price later settled near $0.036.
Why it matters: This spike suggests renewed interest from traders, possibly because the token was oversold (a technical indicator called RSI was near 30) and the overall crypto market was improving. However, without strong long-term reasons, such price moves might not last. (Layer2Alex)

2. 2026 Guide Explains GRT’s Role (January 6, 2026)

What happened: A new guide was published that breaks down how The Graph works as a decentralized indexing system. It explains the four main roles in the network—Indexers, Curators, Delegators, and Consumers—and covers the token’s economics. The guide also highlights The Graph’s expansion to over 90 blockchains and its integration with AI tools.
Why it matters: This guide helps people understand The Graph’s important role in Web3, which could attract more developers and users. By explaining how staking works and how the system connects across different blockchains, it supports wider adoption, though it hasn’t yet caused a big price change. (Weex)

3. Horizon Mainnet Launch (December 11, 2025)

What happened: The Graph launched its Horizon upgrade, shifting to a modular design that combines Subgraphs, Substreams, and Token APIs into one protocol. This allows for real-time data analysis and AI-powered features like no-code querying through the Graph Assistant.
Why it matters: Horizon makes it easier for developers to access blockchain data, which could increase the use of The Graph and demand for query fees. However, the impact on GRT’s price will depend on how much the network grows in actual use, not just on the technical improvements. (The Graph)

Conclusion

The Graph is strengthening its technology and educating users to secure its place in the Web3 ecosystem. Market activity shows cautious interest from traders amid ongoing crypto market ups and downs. The big question is whether the Horizon upgrade will lead to noticeable growth in network use by the first quarter of 2026.

What is expected in the development of GRT?

The Graph’s development plan for 2026 focuses on expanding across multiple blockchains and upgrading its data technology to be faster and smarter.

1. Cross-Chain Staking with CCIP (2026) – Users will be able to stake and delegate GRT tokens across different blockchains like Arbitrum, Base, and Solana.
2. SQL-Powered Data Engines (2026) – The platform will support SQL queries, making data searches more efficient and familiar for traditional database users.
3. AI-Driven Infrastructure (2026) – Machine learning will be used to predict and optimize data indexing, improving speed and accuracy.

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Staking with CCIP (2026)

Overview: The Graph is working with Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to allow GRT tokens to move freely between Solana, Arbitrum, and Base blockchains. This means users can stake or delegate their tokens and pay for data queries across these networks without being limited to just one. The technology to connect these blockchains is currently being built, with a full launch expected in 2026 (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This is good news for GRT because it increases the token’s usefulness by connecting multiple blockchain communities. However, there could be delays or security challenges as this new system is developed.

2. SQL-Powered Data Engines (2026)

Overview: The Graph plans to add support for SQL, a widely used language for managing and querying databases. This will help handle more complex data requests and appeal to businesses and financial institutions that rely on relational databases. This feature will work alongside the current GraphQL system (The Graph).
What this means: This could attract more traditional developers and increase the network’s usage, which is positive for GRT. Success depends on how smoothly SQL integrates with existing tools.

3. AI-Driven Infrastructure (2026)

Overview: The Graph will use artificial intelligence to improve how data is indexed and queries are optimized. This builds on previous AI features introduced in 2025 and aims to reduce delays, especially for apps that need real-time data (The Graph).
What this means: AI improvements could lower costs for those running the network and attract apps that require fast data access. However, there are risks like increased computing demands and competition from other AI-focused data platforms.

Conclusion

The Graph’s 2026 roadmap focuses on making GRT a more versatile and powerful tool by enabling cross-chain use, supporting enterprise-level data queries, and leveraging AI for better performance. These upgrades could help GRT stand out among other decentralized data platforms. How these changes will impact GRT’s position in the market remains to be seen.

What updates are there in the GRT code base?

The Graph has recently improved its technology to make it easier and more reliable to use across different blockchain networks. These updates focus on better transferring its token, GRT, between chains and strengthening the network’s core systems.

1. Cross-Chain GRT Transfers (October 31, 2025) – GRT can now be securely moved between Arbitrum, Base, and Avalanche blockchains using Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP).
2. Infrastructure & Network Upgrades (July 2025) – Key software components like proxyd and graph-node were updated to boost stability and performance.

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain GRT Transfers (October 31, 2025)

What happened: The Graph integrated Chainlink’s CCIP, a technology that allows GRT tokens to move smoothly between different blockchain networks—specifically Arbitrum, Base, and Avalanche. Support for Solana is planned for a future update.
Why it matters: This makes GRT more useful because developers and users can now use it across multiple blockchains for activities like staking, paying fees, and voting on governance decisions. It also means easier access to GRT liquidity and fewer obstacles when transferring tokens between networks. (Source)

2. Infrastructure & Network Upgrades (July 2025)

What happened: The Graph’s operations team released updates including Helm charts for Heimdall v2 and improvements to important components such as proxyd, nimbus, and graph-node. They also fixed issues related to block numbers on Arbitrum and improved how GRT’s circulating supply is tracked across Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks.
Why it matters: These updates make The Graph’s network more reliable and accurate. Developers building on The Graph will experience faster data queries and smoother overall performance. (Source)

Conclusion

The Graph is making important strides in connecting different blockchain ecosystems and strengthening its backend systems. These upgrades position it well to support growing Layer 2 networks and encourage wider adoption of its decentralized data services. How quickly these improvements will drive new users and developers remains an exciting question.