What could affect the price of ICP?

ICP’s price is caught between promising tech upgrades and cautious market sentiment.

1. AI & DeFi Integration – New tools like Caffeine AI and Bitcoin DeFi features could boost adoption (positive).
2. Market Sentiment – Low liquidity in altcoins and Bitcoin’s strong market share at 59% create headwinds (negative).
3. Tokenomics Changes – Token burns and scheduled unlocks add supply pressure (mixed).

In-Depth Analysis

1. AI and DeFi Adoption Drivers (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening: ICP’s roadmap for 2025–26 includes launching Caffeine AI, which lets users deploy AI models without coding, and Chain Fusion, enabling Bitcoin DeFi directly on ICP without complicated bridges. An upcoming upgrade in August 2025 will increase subnet storage to 2 TiB and support live AI models (DFINITY), aiming to attract more developers.

Why it matters: If these features catch on, more activity on the ICP network could increase the use of ICP tokens (which are burned when users run computations). For perspective, ckBTC (ICP’s Bitcoin-based token) is already the 4th most popular Bitcoin wrapper on DeFiLlama. Success here could help reverse recent price drops.

2. Altcoin Liquidity Crunch (Negative Outlook)

Current state: The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, indicating fear, and altcoin season scores are low at 30/100. Bitcoin’s dominance has risen to 59.05%, up nearly 2% in a month, pulling investment away from altcoins like ICP. ICP’s 24-hour trading volume is $94.5 million, only 5.8% of its market cap, showing limited liquidity and higher price swings.

What this means: In a cautious market, ICP’s 45% drop over the past 90 days makes it vulnerable to more selling. Its current price of $3.02 is below key moving averages ($3.18–$5.31), suggesting weak support until it reaches around $2.06.

3. Supply Factors (Mixed Impact)

Details: About 40% of ICP’s total 539 million tokens are staked, locking them away temporarily, but 27% are still locked in long-term vesting agreements lasting up to 8 years. Recent network upgrades have increased token burn rates, but this hasn’t fully balanced out selling pressure from tokens being unlocked.

Implications: While staking reduces the number of tokens available for trading, upcoming unlocks—like 34 million ICP tokens scheduled for insiders in 2025—could increase selling pressure. The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is -30.65%, meaning most holders are currently at a loss, which could lead to panic selling if Bitcoin’s price drops further.

Conclusion

ICP’s future depends on whether its AI and DeFi innovations can overcome the current negative market trends. Keep an eye on the Caffeine AI open beta expected in late 2025 and Bitcoin ETF inflows. A price move above $5.31 could signal a recovery, while falling below $2.06 might lead to new lows. The big question: will ICP’s technology upgrades finally drive real user growth?

What are people saying about ICP?

The Internet Computer (ICP) community is divided between frustration over its price performance and cautious hope about its technological progress. Here’s what’s currently trending:

1. Growing criticism of leadership and challenges in gaining wider adoption, despite strong technology
2. Excitement around AI integration (Caffeine) and new cross-chain DeFi features fueling optimistic outlooks
3. Traders are closely watching $5.50 as a critical support level, with bearish technical signals in play

Deep Dive

1. @BradHuston: "DFINITY’s deaf ear to retail" Bearish

"Internet Computer is down 50% year-to-date. $ICP would be $3 if not for @caffeineai slowing the decline. The issue isn’t the technology—it’s @dfinity’s management, which seems closed off."
– @BradHuston (18.2K followers · 124K impressions · 2025-09-12 20:37 UTC)
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What this means: Critics are blaming DFINITY’s leadership for poor price performance, arguing that despite strong fundamentals like AI and cross-chain technology, the project hasn’t gained enough market traction.

2. @dfinity: "Bitcoin ↔ Solana swaps now native" Bullish

"Smart contracts on ICP can now directly interact with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Cross-chain swaps like SOL ↔ BTC are fully supported."
– @dfinity (552K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-08-20 12:00 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for ICP’s Chain Fusion technology, which allows decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to operate across multiple blockchains without intermediaries. If adoption grows, this could be a major advantage.

3. CoinMarketCap Community: "$5.50 support battle intensifies" Mixed

"ICP is testing the $5.50 support level. If it breaks down, we could see a 10% drop to $5.30. To reverse the trend, it needs to break above the $5.64 resistance."
– @CryptoTrader (3.1K views · 2025-07-16 16:14 UTC)
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What this means: The technical outlook is uncertain. ICP’s price is stuck between $5.30 and $5.80, despite a 47% drop so far this year. Traders remain divided on whether the price will rebound or fall further.

Conclusion

The overall view on ICP is mixed. Investors are optimistic about its innovative technology, including AI agents and Bitcoin DeFi infrastructure, but concerned about execution risks and weak price performance. Development activity remains strong (#1 on Santiment’s GitHub rankings), indicating long-term potential. Keep an eye on the $5.30-$5.80 price range this week—a clear move outside this zone could determine ICP’s direction in the fourth quarter.

What is the latest news about ICP?

Internet Computer (ICP) faces ongoing price challenges but is making important progress in AI and storage upgrades. Here’s a quick summary of the latest updates:

1. Price Challenges Despite Recovery (October 21, 2025) – Even after a 36% bounce from its lowest point, technical signals show continued downward pressure.
2. Growth in AI and Bitcoin DeFi (September 24, 2025) – ICP is focusing on building AI capabilities directly on its blockchain and expanding Bitcoin DeFi through a new technology called Chain Fusion.
3. Subnet Storage Capacity Doubled (August 20, 2025) – The network’s storage per subnet has doubled to 2 terabytes, allowing for bigger and more complex applications.

In-Depth Look

1. Price Challenges Despite Recovery (October 21, 2025)

Summary:
ICP’s price bounced back 36% from a low of $2.06 but still faces downward pressure. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest weak buying interest. Open interest, which reflects the number of active positions, dropped nearly 9%, showing that more traders are betting on price declines. ICP is currently trading around $3.06 and could fall back to $2.06 unless positive factors emerge.

What this means:
The market is cautious due to low demand and losses among short-term holders. For the price to turn upward, it needs to break above $5.31, but current signals point to either sideways movement or further decline. (CCN)

2. Growth in AI and Bitcoin DeFi (September 24, 2025)

Summary:
Dominic Williams, the founder of ICP, highlighted that the platform can run AI neural networks directly as smart contracts on the blockchain. This is different from other projects that rely on AI running off the blockchain. ICP also improved its integration with Bitcoin DeFi through Chain Fusion, which allows secure, trustless interactions between blockchains without using bridges.

What this means:
These developments position ICP as a strong player in decentralized AI and Bitcoin DeFi. However, success depends on how many developers build on the platform and overall market interest. The focus on native AI capabilities could set ICP apart in the crowded AI and crypto space. (CoinDesk)

3. Subnet Storage Capacity Doubled (August 20, 2025)

Summary:
DFINITY, the team behind ICP, doubled the storage capacity for each subnet to 2 terabytes. This upgrade involved improving how data is processed and tested under heavy loads. All 47 subnets on the network now have this increased capacity.

What this means:
With more storage, ICP can support larger and more complex decentralized applications (dApps) and AI models. Despite this technical improvement, the market hasn’t fully recognized its value yet, as ICP’s price is still down 45% for the year. (DFINITY)

Conclusion

Internet Computer is facing downward price trends but is making important infrastructure improvements, especially in AI and Bitcoin DeFi. While technical indicators suggest the price could drop further, strong developer activity (ranked #1 by Santiment) and increased storage capacity provide a foundation for future growth. The key question remains: will on-chain AI adoption grow fast enough to overcome current market doubts?

What is expected in the development of ICP?

Internet Computer’s upcoming plans focus on integrating AI, expanding connections with other blockchains, and improving tools for developers.

1. Dogecoin Integration (October 2025) – A major update called Chain Fusion will allow Internet Computer (ICP) to work directly with Dogecoin (DOGE) without needing extra software bridges.
2. Node State Integrity (October 2025) – Security and performance improvements to make the network more reliable.
3. Developer Experience Overhaul (September 2025) – Easier onboarding for developers through an improved ICP Ninja Integrated Development Environment (IDE).
4. DAO Participation Tools (August 2025) – Simplified ways for token holders to stake and participate in governance.

Deep Dive

1. Dogecoin Integration (October 2025)

Overview: The Meridian update will connect Dogecoin directly to ICP’s Chain Fusion system. This means ICP canisters (smart contracts on ICP) can interact with DOGE without relying on third-party bridges. This follows earlier integrations with Bitcoin and Solana, expanding ICP’s ability to work across different blockchains for decentralized finance (DeFi) and payments (DFINITY Roadmap).

What this means: This is a positive step for ICP’s usefulness, especially as demand grows for cross-chain applications in communities that use meme coins like Dogecoin. However, if Dogecoin’s popularity doesn’t grow or its use cases remain limited, the impact might be less significant.

2. Node State Integrity (October 2025)

Overview: The Magnetosphere upgrade aims to make ICP’s network more secure and stable by improving how nodes (computers running the network) validate data. This is part of broader improvements to support AI-related computing tasks (Roadmap | Internet Computer).

What this means: This upgrade strengthens the network’s security and reliability over the long term. However, such technical improvements usually don’t cause immediate changes in ICP’s market price.

3. Developer Experience Overhaul (September 2025)

Overview: The Atlas update enhances ICP Ninja, DFINITY’s development environment, making it easier for developers to launch projects with one-click deployment, more templates, and options to share projects with the community. A live demonstration took place on October 9, 2025 (DFINITY Tweet).

What this means: This is good news for growing the ICP ecosystem by making it simpler for developers to build on the platform. The success of this update depends on how many developers adopt the new tools.

4. DAO Participation Tools (August 2025)

Overview: The Neon initiative will simplify how token holders participate in the Network Nervous System (NNS) DAO by offering mobile-friendly interfaces and dashboards to track rewards and voting.

What this means: This should encourage more token holders to engage actively, which could reduce the number of tokens being sold by passive holders. However, decentralized governance can be complex, which may limit participation.

Conclusion

ICP’s near-term plans focus on expanding cross-chain capabilities (like Dogecoin integration), strengthening network security, and improving developer and user tools. These updates could boost ICP’s role in decentralized AI and multichain DeFi, but success depends on timely delivery and user adoption. It will also be important to watch how Bitcoin’s dominance and changes in the AI landscape influence ICP’s future.

What updates are there in the ICP code base?

Internet Computer (ICP) made significant improvements to its technology in August and September 2025, focusing on integrating AI, increasing storage capacity, and enhancing cross-chain capabilities.

1. AI Workers Live (September 4, 2025) – Large language models (LLMs) now run directly on the blockchain, making it easier to build AI-powered apps with less coding.
2. Subnet Storage Doubled (September 4, 2025) – Each subnet’s storage capacity increased to 2 TiB, allowing bigger apps and data storage.
3. Replicated State Upgrade (August 20, 2025) – Storage layer improvements doubled capacity, boosting network scalability.

Deep Dive

1. AI Workers Live (September 4, 2025)

What happened: The "Ignition" update brought large language models (LLMs) directly onto the blockchain. This means developers can now add AI features to smart contracts with minimal coding effort.

By using ICP’s decentralized network to run AI tasks, developers can create applications like automated contract writing, chatbots, and data analysis tools without relying on centralized cloud services.

Why it matters: This is a big step for ICP because it positions the network as a leader in decentralized AI. It could attract developers interested in combining blockchain technology with AI to build innovative applications. (Source)

2. Subnet Storage Doubled (September 4, 2025)

What happened: The storage capacity for each subnet was doubled from 1 TiB to 2 TiB. This allows decentralized apps (dapps) to handle larger files and more complex AI models.

This upgrade involved improving how data is stored and managed, enabling subnets to handle more input/output operations. Across 47 subnets, the total network storage is now 94 TiB.

Why it matters: This upgrade is foundational. While it doesn’t directly change the user experience, it supports bigger projects like video platforms or enterprise applications that need lots of on-chain storage. (Source)

3. Replicated State Upgrade (August 20, 2025)

What happened: The network’s replicated state capacity was doubled to 2 TiB by redesigning the storage layer. This helps nodes sync faster and improves subnet performance.

The update involved complex technical work, including new data hashing and merging methods, plus extensive testing with high-performance nodes.

Why it matters: This is positive for ICP because faster state replication reduces delays in communication between subnets. This benefits applications like decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming, which require real-time interactions. (Source)

Conclusion

ICP’s recent updates focus on preparing the network for AI applications, improving infrastructure scalability, and enhancing cross-chain communication. Although the price has dropped by 33% over the past 30 days, these technical improvements set the stage for more advanced decentralized apps. The growing adoption of decentralized AI could be the key to revitalizing ICP’s ecosystem growth.

Why did the price of ICP fall?

Internet Computer (ICP) dropped 7.43% in the last 24 hours, performing worse than the overall crypto market, which fell 4.37%. The main reasons are:

1. Technical Breakdown – ICP’s price fell below an important support level at $3.12, showing bearish momentum.
2. Weak On-Chain Activity – Open interest (a measure of trader positions) decreased by 8.99%, indicating less confidence among traders.
3. Market Risk-Off Mood – Bitcoin’s market share increased to 59.16%, putting pressure on alternative coins like ICP.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
ICP’s price dropped below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3.12 and is moving within a downward channel. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.82 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -0.387 suggest the coin is oversold but don’t show signs of a rebound yet.

What this means:

• Low trading volume (only 5.6% turnover in 24 hours) means there isn’t enough buying interest to stop the decline.
• Using Fibonacci retracement levels, the next support is near $2.56, which is close to ICP’s 2025 low of $2.06.

What to watch:
If ICP’s price closes above $3.34 (the 50% Fibonacci level), it might signal a short-term recovery, but this needs stronger trading volume to hold.

2. On-Chain Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Open interest in ICP dropped by 8.99%, showing traders are pulling back from their positions, according to CCN. The MVRV Long/Short Difference at 39.06% indicates many short-term holders are facing significant unrealized losses, which could lead to more selling.

What this means:

• Negative funding rates and forced liquidations might increase selling pressure if panic spreads.
• Developer activity has declined compared to 2025 highs, raising concerns about the project’s momentum.

3. Macro Crypto Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, signaling “Extreme Fear” among investors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance in the market rose to 59.16%, which tends to hurt alternative coins like ICP.

What this means:

• Investors are favoring Bitcoin, seen as a safer asset, over riskier altcoins during uncertain global economic times.
• ICP’s price moves closely with Bitcoin (30-day correlation of 0.84), making it vulnerable to Bitcoin’s price swings.

Conclusion

ICP’s recent decline is driven by technical breakdowns, weaker on-chain activity, and a cautious market that prefers Bitcoin over altcoins. Although the coin is oversold and could bounce back, the lack of strong positive signals and high Bitcoin dominance suggest investors should be careful.

Key point to watch: Will ICP hold the $2.56 support level, or will Bitcoin’s strength push it down toward its 2025 lows?