What could affect the price of ETH?
Ethereum’s price is currently influenced by a mix of upcoming technical upgrades, changes in investment fund flows, and shifts in how people stake their coins.
- Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 3) – A major update aimed at making Ethereum faster and more scalable, which could boost growth in Layer 2 solutions.
- ETF Outflows – Investors pulled out $795 million last week from Ethereum spot ETFs, showing caution among big players.
- Staking Centralization – Solo validators face challenges, raising concerns about Ethereum’s decentralization.
Deep Dive
1. Protocol Upgrades & Scalability (Positive/Mixed)
Overview: Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3, 2025, introduces a new technology called PeerDAS. This aims to increase Ethereum’s data capacity by 10 times, targeting over 12,000 transactions per second by 2026. Testing started on October 1. However, past delays with upgrades like Glamsterdam show there are risks in execution.
What this means: If Fusaka works as planned, it could lower transaction fees and attract more developers to Ethereum’s Layer 2 (L2) solutions, increasing demand for ETH. On the other hand, technical problems or slow adoption of L2s could limit these benefits.
2. ETF Flows & Regulatory Risk (Negative/Neutral)
Overview: U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs experienced record outflows of $795 million last week (AMBCrypto), while Bitcoin ETFs lost $903 million. The SEC has delayed decisions on ETFs that include staking features until mid-November.
What this means: These outflows reflect short-term caution among investors. However, if staking-enabled ETFs get approved (likely in 2026), they could lock up about 5% of Ethereum’s supply, creating scarcity. It’s worth watching Grayscale’s ETHE fund, where outflows have started to slow ($248 million on Friday vs. $251 million on Thursday).
3. Staking Dynamics & Governance (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Lido’s Dual Governance vote, active since June 2025, allows stETH holders to veto proposals in the DAO, aiming to spread out decision-making power. Research (Ethereum Research) shows that solo stakers are 18% more sensitive to yield changes than those who stake through pools.
What this means: Institutional staking is growing (for example, BlackRock’s ETH ETF holds $15.2 billion), which could reduce retail participation and centralize control. If Fusaka reduces new ETH issuance, solo validators might be squeezed, weakening Ethereum’s security story—a key factor in its value.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s price will depend on how well it balances scaling improvements with concerns about staking centralization and ETF investor sentiment. The $3,800–$4,000 price range is crucial: falling below it could trigger widespread sell-offs, while staying above could set the stage for a rally driven by the Fusaka upgrade. Will December’s update revive Ethereum’s reputation as “ultrasound money,” or will ETF outflows and validator challenges take the lead?
What are people saying about ETH?
Ethereum’s community is divided: some investors are optimistic, aiming for $10,000, while others are preparing for ups and downs. Here’s what’s happening now:
- ETF inflows vs. outflows – There’s a record $795 million weekly ETF outflow, but big investors (whales) are still buying.
- Technical tug-of-war – Positive price patterns face warnings from technical indicators and tests of $4,000 support.
- Institutions vs. retail – Big firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are active, while everyday investors remain cautious.
- Network upgrades – The Pectra upgrade is making staking more accessible, boosting long-term confidence.
Deep Dive
1. @Eliteonchain: Spot and Derivatives Align for Bullish Outlook
“ETH’s spot ETFs, exchange reserves, and derivatives all point bullish for the first time since March.”
– 1.2M followers · 12.7M impressions · September 17, 2025, 3:55 PM UTC
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What this means: This is a positive sign because ETF inflows (+$726.6M on July 16), decreasing ETH held on exchanges (-2.64%), and favorable funding rates suggest coordinated buying from both big institutions and retail investors.
2. @mkbijaksana: All-Time High Rejection Signals Caution
“Failed $5,000 breakout + bearish RSI divergence = caution zone.”
– 89K followers · 2.1M impressions · August 27, 2025, 1:28 AM UTC
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What this means: Short-term outlook is cautious as Ethereum struggles to stay above $4,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68 suggests the price might be overbought. Traders are watching the $4,000 support level closely.
3. @CryptoMobese: Upward Channel Points to $5,500
“ETH in strong ascending channel – $4,900 mid-target, $5,500 next.” (Translated from Turkish)
– 312K followers · 8.9M impressions · September 8, 2025, 2:43 PM UTC
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What this means: Technically, this is a neutral to bullish setup. Ethereum needs to hold support around $3,950. If it breaks above $4,900, it could trigger a fear of missing out (FOMO) pushing prices toward the 2021 all-time high.
4. Whale Alert: $1.73 Billion in ETH Bought Despite ETF Outflows
“16 wallets bought 431,000 ETH ($1.73B) as ETFs saw $795M outflows.” (NewsBTC)
What this means: Signals are mixed. While ETFs are losing money, large investors are buying ETH at discounted prices. The amount of ETH held on exchanges is at a nine-year low (14.8 million ETH), which could increase price swings.
Conclusion
The overall view on Ethereum is cautiously optimistic. Network upgrades and big investor buying help balance concerns about ETF outflows. Technical indicators suggest a possible retest of $4,800 to $5,500 if the $4,000 support holds. Traders are also watching for the SEC’s upcoming decisions on staking-enabled ETFs, expected by mid-November. Keep an eye on the ETH/BTC ratio—if it rises above 0.044, it could signal stronger momentum for Ethereum and other altcoins.
What is the latest news about ETH?
Ethereum is experiencing some ups and downs as big investors pull back, but large holders (called whales) are buying more. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:
- Record $796M Ethereum ETF Withdrawals (Sept 26, 2025) – The biggest weekly outflow since these funds started, showing that institutions are cautious.
- Whales Buy $1.73B in ETH During Price Drop (Sept 25–27, 2025) – Large investors bought a lot of ETH while prices fell, and the amount of ETH held on exchanges dropped to a 9-year low.
- Open Interest Falls to 2024 Levels (Sept 23–24, 2025) – Over $5 billion in liquidations caused the biggest reset in Ethereum derivatives in more than a year.
In-Depth Look
1. Record $796M Ethereum ETF Withdrawals (Sept 26, 2025)
What happened: U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $796 million leave in the week ending September 26. The biggest withdrawals came from Fidelity’s FETH fund (-$362M) and BlackRock’s ETHA fund (-$200M). This was the largest outflow since these ETFs launched and happened as Ethereum’s price briefly dropped below $3,900. Delays by the SEC in approving crypto ETFs and staking products added to the uncertainty.
Why it matters: This shows that big institutional investors are becoming more cautious, reflecting a broader trend of risk avoidance. Ethereum ETFs still hold $26 billion worth of ETH, which is about 5.37% of all ETH available. However, the outflow rate of 3% of assets under management (AUM) is less severe than Bitcoin ETFs, which saw 6% outflows recently. (AMBCrypto)
2. Whales Buy $1.73B in ETH During Price Drop (Sept 25–27, 2025)
What happened: Sixteen large wallets bought 431,018 ETH (worth $1.73 billion) through exchanges like Kraken, Galaxy Digital, and OKX during a 10% weekly price drop. Meanwhile, the total ETH held on exchanges fell to 14.8 million, which is 52% lower than the peak levels seen in 2016. More ETH is being moved into staking and custody accounts, reducing the amount available for trading.
Why it matters: With less ETH available on exchanges, price swings could become more pronounced. The fact that whales are buying near $3,800 suggests they see value at this level. However, experts warn that if ETH falls below $3,700, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced sales. Despite ETF outflows, institutional investors haven’t completely exited their positions. (NewsBTC)
3. Open Interest Falls to 2024 Levels (Sept 23–24, 2025)
What happened: The total open interest (the number of active contracts) in Ethereum futures dropped to levels last seen in early 2024 after more than $5 billion in liquidations. Binance accounted for $3 billion of this, Bybit $1.2 billion, and OKX $580 million. This happened after ETH’s price fell below $4,000, wiping out much of the leverage built up during the summer rally.
Why it matters: This reduction in leverage lowers the risk of a market crash but also shows that traders are less willing to take big bets right now. Ethereum’s price recovery to $4,002 is still fragile, with resistance expected between $4,150 and $4,490. (NewsBTC)
Conclusion
Ethereum is facing two main forces: institutional investors are pulling money out of ETFs due to broader market caution, while large holders are buying and reducing the supply available on exchanges. This creates some technical support for the price. Keep an eye on whether ETH can hold above $3,800 and if ETF flows improve after the SEC’s decisions expected in October. Also, consider whether Ethereum’s staking rewards (around 3-4%) can help balance out the decline in trading activity.
What is expected in the development of ETH?
Ethereum’s roadmap carefully balances short-term improvements in scalability with long-term goals for security and decentralization.
- Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 2025) – Backend updates to make Layer 2 solutions more efficient and improve node reliability.
- zkEVM Integration (2026) – Using zero-knowledge proofs to enable cheaper and more private transactions.
- Lean Ethereum Plan (2030+) – Preparing for quantum-resistant security and boosting transaction speeds on the main network.
Deep Dive
1. Fusaka Upgrade (December 2025)
Overview: The Fusaka hard fork (CryptoGucci) focuses on backend improvements like PeerDAS (EIP-7594), which enhances how data is shared and stored across the network. It also increases the amount of data (blobs) that can be processed per block from 6 to 14. Test networks such as Holešky, Sepolia, and Hoodi will start running these updates in October 2025.
What this means: This upgrade is positive for Layer 2 platforms like Arbitrum and Base because the increased data capacity could cut transaction fees by about 50%. However, there is a risk that validators with more storage capacity could dominate, which might reduce decentralization.
2. zkEVM Layer 1 Integration (2026)
Overview: The native zkEVM will use zero-knowledge proofs to verify nearly all blocks in under 10 seconds (Binance News). This rollout is planned between late 2025 and mid-2026.
What this means: This technology can lower gas fees by around 80% and offers privacy features that appeal to institutions needing compliance. The success depends on making the necessary hardware affordable enough to keep the network decentralized.
3. Lean Ethereum Plan (2030+)
Overview: This long-term plan aims to make Ethereum resistant to quantum computing threats, achieve 10,000 transactions per second on the main network, and simplify node operation (CoinMarketCap). It includes adopting RISC-V architecture to make the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) 3 to 5 times more efficient.
What this means: These improvements will strengthen Ethereum’s security and performance in the long run. However, delays in research and development could slow progress in the near term.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability with Fusaka, enhancing efficiency through zero-knowledge proofs with zkEVM, and ensuring future security with quantum-resistant technology. While there are risks in executing these upgrades, they reinforce Ethereum’s position as a foundational platform for decentralized finance. The big question remains: will Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum fully benefit from Ethereum’s security by 2026, or will external bridges continue to play a major role?
What updates are there in the ETH code base?
Ethereum’s software is getting important updates to handle more transactions, reduce storage needs, and prepare for big scaling improvements.
- Gas Limit Increase (June 30, 2025) – The default gas limit per block is raised to 45 million, allowing more transactions in each block.
- History Pruning (July 8, 2025) – Old blockchain data from before the 2022 Merge is automatically deleted, cutting storage requirements by 300-500 GB.
- Fusaka Upgrade Preparation (September 19, 2025) – New technology tests aim to boost Layer 2 scaling by 8 times, improving transaction speeds and capacity.
Deep Dive
1. Gas Limit Increase (June 30, 2025)
What’s happening: Ethereum clients like Geth and Nethermind have updated their software to increase the gas limit from about 30 million to 45 million per block. This means each block can now handle roughly 15% more transactions.
Why it matters: This change follows recommendations from network validators to improve how many transactions Ethereum can process without sacrificing security. Another client, Hyperledger Besu, also added parallel transaction processing to boost efficiency.
Impact: This is good news for Ethereum users because higher gas limits can increase network capacity and potentially lower transaction fees during busy times. (Source)
2. History Pruning (July 8, 2025)
What’s happening: Ethereum clients now automatically remove old blockchain data from before the Merge event in 2022. This reduces the storage space needed by 300 to 500 gigabytes.
Why it matters: This update uses EIP-4444, which allows nodes to delete data older than one year. Lightweight clients and Layer 2 solutions can sync using newer checkpoints, so they don’t need the full history.
Impact: This change lowers the cost and resource requirements for running Ethereum nodes, which helps keep the network decentralized. However, some historical data will now only be available through third-party services. (Source)
3. Fusaka Upgrade Preparation (September 19, 2025)
What’s happening: The upcoming Fusaka hard fork, planned for December 3, 2025, will introduce PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), a technology designed to scale Layer 2 solutions by 8 times.
Why it matters: PeerDAS (EIP-7594) allows nodes to store only one-eighth of certain data blobs, freeing up bandwidth to handle more transactions on Layer 2 rollups. Test networks will also experiment with increasing the gas limit up to 150 million.
Impact: This upgrade is a major step toward enabling over 12,000 transactions per second on Layer 2, strengthening Ethereum’s position as a reliable settlement layer for decentralized applications. (Source)
Conclusion
Ethereum’s latest updates focus on improving scalability (with Fusaka), increasing efficiency (through higher gas limits), and making node operation more sustainable (via pruning). These changes support Ethereum’s goal of balancing decentralization with high performance. As the Fusaka upgrade approaches, it will be interesting to see how Layer 2 adoption evolves and how these improvements impact the broader ecosystem.
Why did the price of ETH go up?
Ethereum (ETH) increased by 2.99% to $4,124.81 in the past 24 hours, outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market, which rose by 2.33%. This growth was driven by large investors buying ETH, technical price rebounds, and a decrease in the amount of ETH available on exchanges.
- Big investors, often called "whales," purchased $1.73 billion worth of ETH (431,000 ETH) between September 25 and 27, reducing the amount of ETH held on exchanges to the lowest level in nine years.
- ETH bounced back from a key support level around $3,800, supported by technical indicators suggesting a positive trend.
- There is potential for a "short squeeze" because many traders betting against ETH could be forced to buy back if the price rises above $4,200.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Whale Buying and Reduced Exchange Supply (Positive for Price)
Between September 25 and 27, 16 large wallets bought a total of 431,018 ETH, worth about $1.73 billion, through major platforms like Kraken, Galaxy Digital, and FalconX. At the same time, the total ETH held on exchanges dropped to 14.8 million, which is 52% less than the peak earlier this year. Additionally, about 30% of all ETH is now locked up in staking or held in custody, meaning less is available for trading.
Why this matters: When fewer coins are available to sell, price movements can become more pronounced. The fact that whales are buying near $4,000 suggests they believe this price is a good value. Similar buying patterns happened before ETH’s big price increases in 2025, such as when 138,000 ETH was bought in July before a 27% price jump.
Keep an eye on: Whether the recent outflows from ETH-focused ETFs (which hit a record $795 million last week) will reverse if ETH stays above $4,000.
2. Technical Price Bounce and Short-Squeeze Potential (Mixed Signals)
ETH’s price bounced off the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $3,800 and climbed back above $4,000, an important psychological level for traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, was near 37 on September 28, indicating ETH was close to being oversold. Meanwhile, data shows about $420 million worth of short positions (bets that ETH will fall) are clustered above $4,200.
What this means: Traders who bet on prices rising bought ETH during the dip. However, ETH faces resistance between $4,280 and $4,300, where selling pressure could increase. If ETH breaks above $4,300, it could trigger a short squeeze, forcing those betting against ETH to buy back quickly, pushing the price higher. If it fails, ETH might drop back to test the $3,800 support again.
Watch: The MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, is improving but still shows bearish signs. The key price level to watch is $4,085.
3. Market Sentiment and Broader Trends (Neutral)
The Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how alternative cryptocurrencies perform compared to Bitcoin, rose by 15.79% over the past 30 days, indicating investors are moving money from Bitcoin to other coins like ETH. ETH’s market dominance remains steady at 12.89%, and the ETH/BTC trading pair increased by 1.4% from recent lows.
What this means: ETH’s price movement fits with a general increase in risk appetite among crypto investors, as the total value of the crypto market rose by 2.33% in 24 hours. However, the Fear & Greed Index is at 39 out of 100, showing cautious sentiment, and continued ETF outflows suggest some investors remain wary.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s recent price increase is driven by large investors reducing supply and technical buying signals. However, for this upward trend to continue, ETH needs to break and hold above the $4,300 resistance level. The key question is whether ETH can close above its 50-day EMA at $4,355 to confirm a trend reversal, or if ongoing ETF outflows and broader economic risks will limit further gains.