Why did the price of ETH fall?

Ethereum (ETH) dropped 2.15% to $3,893.68 in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.25%. This decline is part of a larger 10.89% weekly drop and reflects technical weaknesses, uncertainty in the broader economy, and changes in the derivatives market.

1. Bearish MACD Signal (Negative Outlook) – A key technical indicator suggests prices may continue to fall.
2. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Negative Outlook) – The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 32, the lowest since March 2025, showing increased caution among investors.
3. Shift in CME Futures Dominance (Mixed Impact) – Institutional investors are moving toward regulated futures contracts, which reduces demand in the spot market.

Detailed Analysis

1. Bearish Technical Setup (Negative Outlook)

Summary: Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a bearish MACD crossover, a pattern that has previously led to price drops of 43-61% in 2023 and 2024. The price is trading below important moving averages, including the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,069, and failed to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,260.53.

What this means: Traders who use technical analysis see the MACD histogram at -34.48 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.93 as signs that momentum is weakening. If the price falls below $3,800 (the 100-day moving average), it could trigger automated selling by trading algorithms. To reverse this bearish trend, Ethereum would need to climb back above $4,269.

What to watch: Daily closing prices below $3,800 could lead to faster sell-offs and liquidations.

2. Macro Risk Aversion (Negative Outlook)

Summary: The crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 32, indicating “Extreme Fear” among investors. This is largely due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China and Bitcoin’s 6.8% weekly decline. Ethereum’s 24-hour trading volume also decreased by 2.04% to $49.3 billion, showing less willingness to take risks.

What this means: Ethereum’s price often moves in line with Bitcoin during times of economic uncertainty. The ETH/BTC trading ratio fell by 0.5%, suggesting that investors are moving their money into assets they see as safer.

3. Changes in the Derivatives Market (Mixed Impact)

Summary: Open interest in Ethereum futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached $28.3 billion, surpassing Binance’s $23 billion. Institutional investors seem to prefer regulated futures contracts to avoid weekend price swings. Meanwhile, perpetual funding rates have turned slightly negative (-0.0013%), signaling bearish sentiment.

What this means: The growth of CME futures shows increasing institutional involvement, but this shift means less speculative trading in the spot market. The ratio of spot to perpetual futures volume is 0.3, indicating that derivatives are now the main drivers of Ethereum’s price movements.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s recent price drop is due to a combination of technical weaknesses, economic uncertainty, and a shift toward regulated futures trading. While large investors (whales) have bought $417 million worth of ETH since mid-October (AMBCrypto), everyday traders remain cautious in this fear-driven market.

Key point to watch: Can Ethereum hold the $3,800 support level? This is important because $210 million in long positions were liquidated at this price on August 18.

What could affect the price of ETH?

Ethereum's price is balancing between upcoming protocol upgrades and market uncertainties.

1. Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 2025) – Aims to improve scalability but carries execution risks
2. ETF Staking Approval – BlackRock’s $492M ETH purchases suggest growing institutional interest
3. Whale Accumulation – 138K ETH bought in one week shows confidence but also potential sell pressure

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Scalability Push (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Fusaka upgrade, expected around December 3, 2025, plans to double data capacity for Layer 2 solutions and raise gas limits. This could allow Ethereum to process over 12,000 transactions per second by 2026. However, testing revealed some instability with validator software under heavy load.

What this means: If successful, Fusaka could strengthen Ethereum’s position in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world assets by lowering transaction fees. But rushing the upgrade might cause network issues. The 40% drop in perpetual futures open interest since October 1 indicates traders are cautious about these risks (CryptoGucci).

2. ETF Staking Arms Race (Bullish Impact)

Overview: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to approve staking-enabled ETFs by November, based on feedback to BlackRock’s updated ETHA filing. In October alone, corporate treasuries added 200,000 ETH (worth $774 million).

What this means: Institutional staking could lock up more than 30% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, creating scarcity that supports price growth. BitMine’s $417 million ETH purchase on October 15 aligns with futures market signals indicating institutional accumulation (SharpLink).

3. Whale Liquidity Trap (Bearish Risk)

Overview: Retail investors hold 94% of ETH futures long positions, while one large investor (a “whale”) controls 138,000 ETH (about $533 million). The ETH/BTC price ratio is near a level that previously led to a 23% underperformance of Ethereum.

What this means: The concentration of large holdings and crowded long positions could trigger a cascade of forced selling. However, the $3,800 support level has absorbed $115 million in liquidations this week, indicating strong buying interest from institutions (Hyblock).

Conclusion

Ethereum’s future depends on successfully delivering the Fusaka upgrade while navigating regulatory hurdles around ETFs. The price is likely to stay between $3,800 and $4,200 until December’s upgrade, with a move above $4,449 needed to confirm a bullish trend.

Will institutional ETH staking demand outpace Layer 2 solution rollouts? Keep an eye on the Sepolia testnet’s data capacity after Fusaka and any changes in Grayscale’s ETF flows.

What are people saying about ETH?

The Ethereum community is divided between long-term holders and those looking to sell strategically. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Price forecasts range from optimistic $5,000 highs to cautious $3,000 lows
2. ETF investments are rising, but big holders have sold over $205 million worth of ETH
3. Developers celebrate the Pectra upgrade, while traders prepare for more price swings

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: Ethereum near all-time high, bullish outlook 🚀

“ETH is less than 4% away from its all-time high of $4,868… Breaking above $4,900–$5,000 could push prices toward $9,000.”
– @johnmorganFL (28K followers · 1.2M impressions · August 15, 2025)
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What this means: This positive view depends on Ethereum holding above $4,800, a level it last reached in November 2021. If it breaks through, it could spark renewed interest in other cryptocurrencies.

2. @santimentfeed: Big investors selling while smaller buyers step in 🐳

“More than $205 million worth of ETH left spot markets last week… The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 83.4, the highest since May 2025.”
– @santimentfeed (412K followers · 3.7M impressions · July 12, 2025)
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What this means: Large investors are cashing out after Ethereum’s 41% price jump in July. Smaller investors buying helped soften the price drop, but if selling continues, the price could fall to around $3,500.

3. @ProtocolGuild: Pectra upgrade boosts Ethereum’s Layer 2 networks ⚙️

“Pectra doubled Layer 2 blob capacity and cut fees by about 40%… The next Erigon update will raise the gas limit to 60 million.”
– @ProtocolGuild (62K followers · 890K impressions · June 5, 2025)
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What this means: These technical improvements make Ethereum’s network faster and cheaper to use, which is good for long-term growth. However, it may take months before these upgrades lead to more users and affect the price.

Conclusion

The outlook for Ethereum is mixed. Supporters highlight technical upgrades and growing ETF interest, while skeptics point to overbought signals and large investors selling. Keep an eye on the $4,100 resistance level and ETF inflow trends this week. The key question: can Ethereum’s strong fundamentals overcome profit-taking pressures?

What is the latest news about ETH?

Ethereum is facing some bearish signals and notable moves by big investors as important upgrades approach.

1. MACD Bearish Cross (October 16, 2025) – A key weekly indicator turned negative, which in the past has often led to significant price drops.
2. SharpLink Raises $76.5M (October 16, 2025) – A public company is boosting its Ethereum holdings, showing growing institutional interest.
3. Fusaka Upgrade Scheduled (December 3, 2025) – A major update focused on making Ethereum faster and cheaper is set to launch soon.

Deep Dive

1. MACD Bearish Cross (October 16, 2025)

What happened: Ethereum’s weekly MACD (a popular market trend indicator) turned bearish for the first time this year. Historically, this signal has been followed by price drops between 46% and 60%. ETH briefly fell below $3,800, causing $142 million in forced sell-offs from traders betting on price increases. Experts are divided on whether this means a deeper downturn or just a reset before prices climb again.
Why it matters: The $4,000 price level is both a psychological and technical support point. If ETH can’t hold above $3,800, selling pressure might increase. However, big investors like BitMine buying 104,000 ETH could help stabilize the price. Traders will be watching closely to see if ETH can bounce back above $4,200, which would suggest the bearish trend is weakening.
(Source: Cryptotimes)

2. SharpLink’s $76.5M Raise (October 16, 2025)

What happened: SharpLink Gaming, a company listed on Nasdaq, raised $76.5 million by selling shares at a 12% premium. They are using this money to grow their Ethereum holdings, now totaling over 521,000 ETH (worth more than $2 billion). SharpLink uses strategies like staking and decentralized finance (DeFi) to increase the value of their ETH holdings, similar to how MicroStrategy manages its Bitcoin reserves.
Why it matters: SharpLink’s approach shows that Ethereum is becoming attractive as a way for companies to generate returns on their cash reserves. If more public companies follow this path, it could reduce the available supply of ETH and increase its credibility among institutional investors.
(Source: Cryptonews)

3. Fusaka Upgrade Timeline (September 19, 2025)

What happened: Ethereum’s Fusaka hard fork is planned for December 3, 2025. This upgrade includes 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) aimed at improving scalability and efficiency. Test networks like Holesky, Sepolia, and Hoodi will implement these changes in October.
Why it matters: Fusaka is designed to double the data capacity for Layer 2 solutions, which help Ethereum handle more transactions at lower costs. The upgrade avoids complicated changes to the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) to prevent delays, focusing instead on steady improvements ahead of a bigger update called Glamsterdam in 2026.
(Source: CryptoGucci)

Conclusion

Ethereum is currently balancing mixed signals: technical indicators suggest caution, but strong institutional buying and upcoming upgrades offer reasons for optimism. While short-term price swings may continue, the Fusaka upgrade’s improvements and SharpLink’s treasury strategy highlight Ethereum’s growing appeal to large investors. Will Fusaka’s data enhancements spark a new wave of growth after the upgrade?

What is expected in the development of ETH?

Ethereum’s development is moving forward with these key updates:

1. Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade (December 3, 2025) – Increases data capacity for Layer 2 solutions by introducing PeerDAS and raising gas limits.
2. Danksharding Rollout (Q1 2026) – Makes rollups cheaper by adding special “blob” data to blocks.
3. Single Slot Finality (2026) – Enables instant block confirmation to improve security.
4. Quantum Resistance (2026–2030) – Adds new cryptography to protect against future quantum computer threats.
5. Lean Ethereum Plan (2030 and beyond) – Simplifies Ethereum for massive scalability and decentralization.

In-Depth Look

1. Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade (December 3, 2025)

What’s happening?
Fusaka will launch in late 2025, introducing PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), which nearly doubles the number of “blobs” (data units) per block from 6 to 14. This boosts the capacity for Layer 2 (L2) solutions, which are systems built on top of Ethereum to handle more transactions faster. Important Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) like 7935 will increase the gas limit to about 150 million, allowing more transactions per block, while EIP 7918 aims to stabilize fees for these blobs. These changes should lower transaction costs and make running nodes more efficient (CryptoGucci).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Layer 2 platforms can process over 12,000 transactions per second (TPS), making apps faster and cheaper.
• Potential downside: Increased storage needs might temporarily centralize node operation to larger players.

2. Danksharding Rollout (Q1 2026)

What’s happening?
As part of Ethereum’s “Surge” phase, Danksharding will add dedicated “blob” data to blocks. This lets rollups bundle many transactions off-chain and settle them cheaply on Ethereum. This upgrade could reduce Layer 2 fees by 80–90% (Ethereum Roadmap).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Makes decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT platforms much more affordable and accessible.
• Neutral: Layer 2 projects will need to manage blob usage carefully to avoid network congestion.

3. Single Slot Finality (2026)

What’s happening?
Currently, Ethereum takes about 15 minutes to finalize a block, meaning transactions can be reversed during that time. Single Slot Finality will confirm blocks instantly, reducing risks like short-term reorganizations and censorship. This is part of the “Scourge” upgrade to strengthen network consensus (Vitalik Buterin Proposal).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Essential for high-speed trading and institutional users who need quick, reliable confirmations.
• Potential downside: Requires complex coordination among validators and updates to client software.

4. Quantum Resistance (2026–2030)

What’s happening?
Ethereum will adopt post-quantum cryptography, such as lattice-based signatures, to protect against future quantum computer attacks that could break current encryption. This aligns with the “Lean Ethereum” vision for long-term security (Justin Drake Research).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Protects Ethereum’s large market value (over $460 billion) from potential quantum threats.
• Neutral: The complexity of implementation might slow down other upgrades.

5. Lean Ethereum Plan (2030 and beyond)

What’s happening?
This plan aims to simplify Ethereum’s core protocol to achieve over 10,000 TPS on the main chain (Layer 1) with 100% uptime. It includes modular node clients, stateless validation (nodes don’t need to store all data), and removing outdated code (Ethereum Lean Plan).

Why it matters:

• Positive: Positions Ethereum as a reliable global settlement layer for traditional finance and other large-scale applications.
• Potential downside: Long development timelines could give competitors a chance to catch up.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s roadmap balances immediate improvements in scalability (Fusaka, Danksharding) with critical long-term upgrades (quantum resistance, Lean Ethereum). While Layer 2 solutions remain key to scaling today, these core protocol enhancements aim to keep Ethereum at the forefront of smart contracts and decentralized finance.

How will Ethereum’s evolving technology shape its role in artificial intelligence and real-world asset sectors?

What updates are there in the ETH code base?

Ethereum’s software received major upgrades in 2025, with the Pectra update already live and the Fusaka upgrade coming soon.

1. Pectra Upgrade (May 7, 2025) – Activated 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) to improve staking, wallets, and Layer 2 scalability.
2. Fusaka Preparation (October 15, 2025) – Urgent software updates required for Layer 2 projects ahead of Fusaka’s December launch.
3. Developer Growth (October 16, 2025) – Ethereum added over 16,000 new developers in 2025, the highest among blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. Pectra Upgrade (May 7, 2025)

Overview: Ethereum’s biggest update since the 2022 Merge brought new features like smart accounts, higher validator limits, and increased data capacity for Layer 2 solutions.

The Pectra upgrade combined two major updates: Prague (execution layer) and Electra (consensus layer). Key changes include:

• EIP-7702: Allows regular wallets to temporarily act like smart contracts, enabling users to pay transaction fees (gas) with stablecoins.
• EIP-7251: Raised the maximum amount a validator can stake from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, making it easier for institutions to participate.
• EIP-7691: Doubled the amount of data ("blob capacity") that can be included in each block, lowering fees for Layer 2 transactions.

What this means: These improvements make Ethereum more user-friendly, attract bigger validators, and strengthen its role as the main platform for Layer 2 scaling solutions. (Source)

2. Fusaka Preparation (October 15, 2025)

Overview: The Ethereum Foundation has urged Layer 2 projects to update their software to support Fusaka’s new data proof system, switching from Blob Proofs to Cell Proofs.

Fusaka, scheduled for December 3, 2025, focuses on improving data availability through PeerDAS (EIP-7594) and adjusting gas limits (EIP-7825). Developers need to adopt Cell Proofs to improve transaction efficiency and compatibility with new data sampling methods.

What this means: While this update doesn’t directly affect ETH’s price, it’s essential for the network’s infrastructure. Fusaka aims to double Layer 2 transaction capacity by 2026, but delayed updates could cause transaction issues after the upgrade. (Source)

3. Developer Growth (October 16, 2025)

Overview: Despite a 24% drop in global crypto developers, Ethereum added 16,181 new developers in 2025—more than Solana (11,534) and Bitcoin (7,494).

According to Electric Capital’s report, Ethereum leads in developer tools and cross-chain integration. Recent updates include raising the default gas limit to 60 million in Erigon and ongoing tests for Glamsterdam (expected in early 2026), which could speed up block times.

What this means: This strong developer growth is a positive sign for Ethereum’s future innovation and resilience, even during market downturns. (Source)

Conclusion

Ethereum’s 2025 upgrades focus on improving scalability (Pectra and Fusaka), security (urgent patches), and ecosystem growth (developer influx). With Fusaka’s mainnet launch just weeks away, enhanced data availability could boost Ethereum’s edge over other modular blockchains.