What could affect the price of ETH?

Ethereum is set for a year of important changes and challenges in 2026, with major upgrades and new regulations shaping its future.

1. Hegota Upgrade – Introducing Verkle Trees to make running Ethereum nodes easier and more decentralized (expected Q4 2026).
2. ETF Staking Approval – The SEC’s decision on Ethereum ETFs with staking features could open the door to big institutional investments.
3. Regulatory Progress – Legal clarity from the UK and the SEC is helping to define Ethereum’s status and protect investors.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening: Ethereum’s upcoming Hegota upgrade will include Verkle Trees, a new technology that reduces the computer power needed to run a node (a key part of the Ethereum network). This makes it easier for individuals to participate directly, reducing reliance on large staking services and helping keep the network decentralized. Ethereum is also moving to twice-yearly upgrades to speed up improvements.
Sources: Ethereum Roadmap, Caldera
Why it matters: Easier node operation means more people can help secure Ethereum, which strengthens the network and could increase the value of ETH. Past upgrades like the Merge have led to price increases, though short-term ups and downs are normal during these changes.

2. Regulatory & ETF Developments (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening: In 2025, the SEC confirmed that Ethereum is not classified as a security, reducing legal uncertainty. The UK’s Property Act, effective December 2025, also supports clear property rights for digital assets. Meanwhile, proposals for spot Ethereum ETFs that include staking options—like BlackRock’s—are awaiting approval. These ETFs would allow investors to earn rewards on their ETH through trusted providers.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, CBOE Filing
Why it matters: Clear regulations encourage big investors to enter the market. Staking-enabled ETFs could bring in over $15 billion, according to Bitrue. However, if approvals are delayed or denied, it could cause temporary price drops, similar to past Bitcoin ETF delays.

3. Whale Activity & Market Sentiment (Mixed Outlook)

What’s happening: Large investors (“whales”) bought 450,000 ETH (about $1.4 billion) in June 2025—the biggest monthly purchase since 2018. Despite this, market sentiment is mixed: general enthusiasm contrasts with bearish signals from futures markets, like negative funding rates.
Sources: Ali Martinez, Glassnode
Why it matters: Whale buying reduces the amount of ETH available for trading, which can push prices up. But the futures market has around $6 billion in open contracts, meaning a price drop below $2,900 could trigger forced selling, leading to sharper declines.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s success in 2026 will depend largely on how smoothly the Hegota upgrade is implemented and whether staking ETFs get the green light. Regulatory progress provides a strong foundation. Keep an eye on the $2,900 price level—falling below it could cause a sell-off, while staying above $3,100 might signal a new upward trend.
How will the SEC’s Q1 decisions on ETFs affect institutional interest in Ethereum? This will be a key question for investors moving forward.

What are people saying about ETH?

Ethereum’s community is divided between those expecting a big price breakout and those warning of a potential downturn, but developers keep making progress. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Institutions are interested in ETH ETFs as Morgan Stanley files for one, sparking debates about custody and security
2. Valuation debates heat up – is Ethereum the “Digital Amazon” or is it overpriced?
3. Technical analysis shows a tug-of-war – bears aim for $2,800, bulls hope for a breakout
4. Ethereum’s ecosystem is booming – 28 new milestones in commerce, decentralized finance (DeFi), and scaling solutions

Deep Dive

1. Morgan Stanley’s ETH ETF filing signals growing Wall Street interest

Morgan Stanley recently applied to launch a spot Ethereum ETF, which is a fund that would let investors buy ETH more easily through traditional finance channels. This move shows Wall Street’s increasing appetite for Ethereum, but it also means banks will compete over how to securely hold and manage ETH assets, especially with staking (earning rewards by holding ETH).
What this means: This is a positive sign for Ethereum because institutional adoption could bring billions in new investments. However, regulatory challenges still need to be addressed before this becomes widespread.
(Source: @xwinfinancejp)

2. Ethereum’s valuation sparks debate

Ethereum’s market value is around $380 billion, which some compare to Amazon’s valuation. Supporters say Ethereum is building the “financial internet,” so traditional valuation methods don’t fully apply. Critics argue that Ethereum’s price-to-sales ratio of 146x is too high, suggesting the network might be overvalued.
What this means: Opinions are mixed. While Ethereum’s network effects and growing use cases justify a premium, some investors worry the price has gotten ahead of itself.
(Source: @SharpLinkGaming)

3. Ethereum’s price faces key technical levels

Ethereum’s price is currently stuck between a support level at $2,780 and resistance at $3,107. For a bullish reversal, it needs to break above the 20-day moving average at $3,062. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show weakening momentum, but the MACD histogram suggests there’s still some upside potential.
What this means: Short-term outlook is cautious, with bears having the edge for now. However, if Ethereum breaks above key resistance levels, it could trigger a stronger upward move.
(Source: @RipBullWinkle)

4. Ethereum’s ecosystem is rapidly expanding

Ethereum’s real-world use is growing fast. For example, Shopify now supports payments powered by Base (an Ethereum layer), and EigenLayer is creating new trust markets. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) now handle about 25% of the volume compared to centralized exchanges (CEXs), and Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum process 1.8 million transactions per month.
What this means: This growth is a strong long-term positive, showing Ethereum’s increasing adoption and utility beyond just trading.
(Source: @ethereum)

Conclusion

The outlook for Ethereum is mixed but generally positive. Technical factors and recent ETF outflows (a $93 million drop on January 9) are putting short-term pressure on prices. However, strong network adoption—with 17 million weekly active users—and significant institutional investments like SharpLink’s $425 million raise suggest underlying strength.

Watch the $3,166 price level closely this week: closing above it could lead to a rally toward $3,450, while failing to hold it might mean retesting December’s low near $2,777. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s ongoing upgrades—from the Merge to the upcoming Dencun update—are quietly transforming ETH into the foundational protocol (like TCP/IP for the internet) for Web3 applications.

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What is the latest news about ETH?

Ethereum is navigating changes in the market and technical upgrades while other altcoins are gaining more trading attention. Here’s the latest update:

1. Ethereum ETF Withdrawals Reach $93.8M (January 9, 2026) – BlackRock’s iShares Trust leads the outflows, indicating some investors are taking short-term profits.
2. BlackRock Uses Ethereum for Stablecoin Settlements (January 10, 2026) – Ethereum is becoming a key platform for a $298 billion stablecoin market.
3. Fusaka Upgrade Improves Layer-2 Performance (December 8, 2025) – New technology reduces costs and boosts data handling for Ethereum’s Layer-2 solutions.

In-Depth Look

1. Ethereum ETF Withdrawals Reach $93.8M (January 9, 2026)

Summary:
On January 9, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $93.8 million in net withdrawals, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) responsible for about 90% ($83.8 million) of that amount. This was part of a three-day trend totaling $351.3 million in outflows. During this time, Ethereum’s price stayed between $3,050 and $3,166, forming a technical pattern called a falling wedge.

What this means:
Investors seem cautious in the short term, moving money from Ethereum to riskier altcoins. However, the price pattern suggests Ethereum could soon break out. If the price closes above $3,166, it might rise to $3,300. But if it falls below $3,000, it could revisit lows seen in December. (CoinMarketCap)

2. BlackRock Uses Ethereum for Stablecoin Settlements (January 10, 2026)

Summary:
BlackRock’s Investment Institute highlighted Ethereum’s expanding role as the main platform for settling stablecoins, which now have a combined value of $298 billion. Ethereum hosts 65% of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), including JPMorgan’s money-market fund and BlackRock’s BUIDL project.

What this means:
This shows growing institutional trust in Ethereum’s technology. The increase in stablecoins on Ethereum, helped by clearer regulations from the 2025 GENIUS Act, could boost long-term demand for ETH as both collateral and transaction fees (“gas”). However, there are risks, such as regulatory scrutiny over how reserves backing stablecoins are managed. (Cryptoslate)

3. Fusaka Upgrade Improves Layer-2 Performance (December 8, 2025)

Summary:
Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade introduced PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), which cuts Layer-2 transaction costs by about 40% and increases the number of data blobs per block to 18. It also added Slot Restructuring (EIP-7732) to prevent disruptions in the network’s consensus process.

What this means:
PeerDAS helps scale Ethereum by making Layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism more efficient. Validators can now process 21% more data with less powerful hardware, which supports decentralization. The next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, is planned for the second quarter of 2026 and aims to make Ethereum “stateless,” further improving scalability. (Newsereum)

Conclusion

Ethereum is facing mixed signals: ETF withdrawals and price consolidation suggest caution, but BlackRock’s endorsement of Ethereum’s stablecoin and real-world asset infrastructure, along with the Fusaka upgrade’s scalability improvements, support a positive long-term outlook. The key question is whether growing Layer-2 adoption can balance out short-term ETF volatility as Ethereum strengthens its role in institutional finance.

What is expected in the development of ETH?

Ethereum’s development is moving forward with two major upgrades planned for 2026:

1. Glamsterdam Upgrade (First Half of 2026) – Aims to improve how Ethereum scales, make it more efficient, and reduce transaction fees through important technical improvements.
2. Hegota Upgrade (Second Half of 2026) – Introduces Verkle Trees, a new technology that makes running Ethereum nodes easier and more decentralized.

Deep Dive

1. Glamsterdam Upgrade (First Half of 2026)

Overview:
Set for early 2026, the Glamsterdam upgrade focuses on making Ethereum faster and cheaper to use. It includes features like Block Access Lists (BALs), which help smart contracts access data more efficiently, reducing unnecessary work. Another key feature is Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS), designed to reduce risks related to Miner Extractable Value (MEV), which can lead to unfair advantages in transaction ordering. This upgrade also looks to optimize gas fees, potentially lowering the cost of transactions and improving performance for Layer 2 solutions (which are built on top of Ethereum to increase speed and reduce costs). Testing will happen before the official launch to ensure everything works smoothly.

What this means:
This upgrade is positive for Ethereum because better scalability and lower fees can encourage more developers and businesses to build and use decentralized apps (dApps). However, the technical complexity of these changes means there’s a chance of delays or challenges during implementation.

2. Hegota Upgrade (Second Half of 2026)

Overview:
Planned for late 2026, the Hegota upgrade brings in Verkle Trees, a new way to organize data that allows Ethereum nodes (computers that help run the network) to operate without storing the entire blockchain state. This reduces the hardware needed by about 90%, making it easier and cheaper for more people to run nodes. Hegota combines improvements from both the execution layer (called Bogota) and the consensus layer (called Heze), aiming to make Ethereum more decentralized by encouraging solo staking (running your own node to help secure the network). Some features postponed from Glamsterdam might also be included here.

What this means:
This upgrade is good news for Ethereum’s security and decentralization because lowering the cost to run nodes means more participants can join the network. The main risk is that if Glamsterdam faces delays or issues, Hegota’s timeline could be pushed back as well.

Conclusion

Both Glamsterdam and Hegota focus on making Ethereum more scalable, affordable, and decentralized—key factors for Ethereum’s growth as a leading blockchain platform. These upgrades could strengthen Ethereum’s position compared to other Layer 1 blockchains by improving user experience and network security.

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What updates are there in the ETH code base?

Ethereum made big improvements to its technology and developer community in late 2025.

1. Fusaka Upgrade Live (Dec 8, 2025) – Improved data handling and Layer-2 efficiency with a new system called PeerDAS.
2. Record Developer Growth (2025) – Over 16,000 new developers joined, keeping Ethereum ahead in the blockchain space.
3. Gas Limit Raised (June 30, 2025) – Updates to key software clients increased the gas limit to 45 million, allowing more transactions per block.

Deep Dive

1. Fusaka Upgrade Live (December 8, 2025)

What happened: Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade introduced PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), which expands how much data can be processed in each block and lowers costs for Layer-2 transactions (these are transactions handled off the main Ethereum chain to improve speed and reduce fees).

The upgrade gradually increased the allowed data blobs per block from 12 to 20, aiming to support over 12,000 transactions per second on Layer-2 by 2026. It also set a minimum fee for these data blobs to keep costs stable when demand is low (Source).

Why it matters: This upgrade helps users by lowering transaction fees and makes decentralized apps (dApps) run more smoothly. However, operators running Ethereum nodes need to update their software to stay compatible.

2. Developer Growth Leader (2025)

What happened: In 2025, Ethereum attracted 16,181 new developers, more than Solana and Bitcoin combined, according to Electric Capital. The total number of active developers reached 31,869, thanks to better development tools and a growing Layer-2 ecosystem. This growth included both core protocol contributors and those building dApps (Source).

Why it matters: While this doesn’t immediately affect Ethereum’s price, it signals strong long-term potential. More developers usually mean more innovation and wider adoption over time.

3. Gas Limit Raised (June 30, 2025)

What happened: Ethereum’s core developers approved increasing the gas limit to 45 million through updates to the Geth and Nethermind clients (two main software programs that run Ethereum nodes).

This change allows about 15% more transactions per block but also increases the risk of the blockchain’s data size growing too quickly. Validators (those who confirm transactions) were advised to check their hardware to handle the extra load (Source).

Why it matters: This is good news for users because transactions can be processed faster. However, it may be challenging for individual stakers with limited resources. Larger validators and exchanges benefit the most.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s updates in late 2025 focused on scaling the network, supporting a growing developer community, and improving transaction capacity. These changes strengthen Ethereum’s position as the top smart contract platform but also increase the complexity for node operators and stakers.

Looking ahead, the planned 2026 Glamsterdam upgrade will need to carefully balance further scalability improvements with maintaining decentralization.

Why did the price of ETH fall?

Ethereum (ETH) dropped 1.09% in the past 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.21%. Over the last 30 days, Ethereum has lost 3.19%. Here are the main reasons behind this decline:

1. ETF Outflows – $94 million left Ethereum ETFs for the third day in a row, showing caution from big investors.
2. Technical Weakness – Ethereum is trading below important price averages, with signs that momentum is fading.
3. Sentiment Shift – The crypto fear/greed index moved to a neutral level, and the altcoin season index dropped 21% in one day.

1. ETF Outflows (Negative Impact)

Overview: On January 9, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $93.82 million in net withdrawals, marking the third straight day of outflows totaling $351 million. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) led these redemptions. (CoinMarketCap)
What this means: When large investors pull money out of Ethereum ETFs, it signals less demand from institutions. Fund managers may be selling ETH to meet these withdrawals, which puts downward pressure on prices and can trigger automated selling by trading algorithms.

2. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

Overview: Ethereum is currently priced at $3,089, which is below its 7-day average price of $3,163 and its 200-day average of $3,622. The MACD indicator, which helps show momentum, is positive but weakening, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 50.85, indicating no clear momentum.
What this means: These price levels act as barriers that make it harder for Ethereum to rise. This discourages new buyers and encourages some investors to take profits. If Ethereum falls below the $3,052 level (a key Fibonacci retracement point), it could lead to further losses down to around $2,987, which is a support level.

3. Sentiment Shift (Negative Impact)

Overview: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped slightly to 40, which is considered neutral, from 41. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index fell sharply by 21% to 33 in just 24 hours, indicating investors are moving money away from altcoins like Ethereum. (CoinMarketCap Global Metrics)
What this means: Neutral sentiment means fewer people are willing to buy on speculation. The drop in altcoin interest suggests Ethereum is losing ground compared to Bitcoin. This shift can increase selling pressure, especially when trading volumes are low.

Conclusion

A combination of institutional selling, technical price resistance, and a cooling market mood has pushed Ethereum’s price down. Key point to watch: Will ETF flows stabilize if Ethereum holds the important $3,000 support level?