What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin’s price is influenced by big institutional investors, Telegram’s user base, and large holders (whales).
- Institutional Treasury Strategy – Over $558 million raised to lock up TON tokens, which helps reduce price swings.
- Telegram Integration – With more than 1 billion users, Telegram drives real-world use of Toncoin through payments and apps.
- Whale Concentration – Large holders control 68% of the supply, which can cause price swings but also shows strong confidence.
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Treasury Play (Positive for Price)
Overview: Verb Technology and the TON Foundation raised over $558 million through private deals to create a treasury company focused on Toncoin (Verb Technology). This strategy is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin. The goal is to hold about 5% of all TON tokens (around 5.1 billion tokens total) to reduce the number of tokens available for trading and stabilize the price by earning staking rewards.
What this means: Locking up roughly 149 million TON tokens (valued at $471 million as of September 18, 2025) creates scarcity, which can increase demand. Past examples like Bitcoin show that this approach can help push prices higher, especially if Telegram’s ecosystem grows.
2. Telegram’s Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)
Overview: TON is the default blockchain used by Telegram for payments, advertising, and decentralized apps (dApps). Recent updates include TON Station, which offers gamified rewards, and liquidity pools pairing USDT and TON. Telegram has over 155 million accounts involved, with $84.5 million in memecoin trading volume in September (TON Foundation).
What this means: Telegram’s huge user base (over 1 billion users) offers great potential for Toncoin adoption. However, the price is sensitive to risks like regulatory scrutiny of Telegram’s privacy features. The key to success is turning Telegram users into active Toncoin users.
3. Whale Activity & Supply Risks (Potential Downside)
Overview: Large holders, or whales, control 68% of Toncoin’s supply, with the top 100 addresses owning 50.6% (CoinMarketCap). While recent buying by groups like Coinbase Ventures shows confidence, having so much supply in a few hands can lead to big price drops if these holders decide to sell.
What this means: If Toncoin’s price falls below $2.70 (a key support level), it could trigger a wave of selling. But as long as whales hold steady between $3.10 and $3.50, there’s cautious optimism.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s future depends on balancing strong institutional demand with growing everyday use through Telegram. Key things to watch:
- Progress in acquiring Toncoin for the $558 million treasury fund.
- Telegram’s rollout of Toncoin payment features to its large user base.
Main question: Can Toncoin grow with Telegram’s massive audience without facing regulatory challenges?
What are people saying about TON?
The Toncoin community is divided between optimism for a price breakout and concerns about large holders, with Telegram’s influence playing a big role. Here’s what’s trending:
- $5 price target – Bulls hope to break above the $3.40 resistance level
- Telegram’s 1 billion users – Seen as Toncoin’s strong advantage over competitors
- Whale alert – 68% of Toncoin supply is held by a few large wallets, raising fears of price swings
Deep Dive
1. @ali_charts: Symmetrical Triangle Suggests 50% Price Move Mixed
“Toncoin $TON is trading within a triangle pattern, waiting for a 50% price move!”
– @ali_charts (1.2M followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-02 07:58 UTC)
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What this means: This pattern is neutral until the price breaks out. The symmetrical triangle indicates Toncoin could either rise to about $4.30 (a 36% increase) or fall to $2.60 (an 18% drop), depending on whether it holds support at $3.39.
2. CoinMarketCap Community: Telegram Integration Drives $5 Price Hopes Bullish
“TON has much higher potential… it could easily reach $5”
– CoinMarketCap user (4.3K impressions · 2025-07-22 16:55 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for Toncoin because Telegram’s massive user base of over 1 billion people offers a unique chance for widespread adoption. The $5 price target (about 58% above the current $3.16) matches the June 2025 high of $3.61 if the ecosystem keeps growing.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Large Holder Dominance Raises Concerns Bearish
“68% of Toncoin supply is held by large wallets… this could cause price swings and scare off new investors”
– CoinMarketCap report (12K impressions · 2025-06-27 01:43 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for Toncoin because when a few holders control most of the supply, it increases the risk of sudden sell-offs. Also, only 20% of holders have kept their Toncoin for over a year, which suggests many investors may not be committed long-term despite Telegram’s involvement.
Conclusion
The outlook for Toncoin is mixed, caught between the growth potential from Telegram’s ecosystem and the risks from concentrated ownership. Technical indicators suggest a possible big move, but the $3.40 resistance level and activity from large wallets (which you can monitor via CMC Whale Watch) will likely shape short-term price action. Keep an eye on whether Toncoin can stay above $3.40—a key level where 740 million TON were accumulated according to on-chain data—to confirm a bullish trend.
What is the latest news about TON?
Toncoin is gaining momentum by leveraging Telegram’s Web3 ecosystem, backed by new institutional support, expanded exchange listings, and engaging gamified experiences. Here’s the latest update:
- $780M Treasury Initiative (September 3, 2025) – TON Foundation teams up with Kingsway Capital to create a crypto treasury aimed at stabilizing supply and attracting institutional investors.
- Robinhood Listing & Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Toncoin becomes available on Robinhood; protocol improvements significantly speed up transactions.
- Daily Combo User Engagement Spike (September 15, 2025) – Interactive challenges on Telegram boost user activity and token conversions.
In-Depth Look
1. $780M Treasury Initiative (September 3, 2025)
What happened:
The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital raised $780 million—$713 million in Toncoin tokens and $67 million in cash—to establish a regulated crypto treasury company. This strategy is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin, aiming to lock up about 5% of Toncoin’s circulating supply and position it as a reliable asset for institutional investors.
Why it matters:
This move is positive for Toncoin because it reduces the amount of tokens available for sale, which can help stabilize the price. It also signals growing confidence from big investors. However, since a few large holders control about 65% of the supply, price swings could still happen. (CoinMarketCap)
2. Robinhood Listing & Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)
What happened:
Toncoin expanded its reach by becoming tradable on popular platforms like Robinhood and Gemini. At the same time, the Jetton 2.0 upgrade was launched, tripling the speed of token transfers. Amazon Web Services (AWS) also added Toncoin data to its public blockchain datasets, making it easier for developers and analysts to work with Toncoin.
Why it matters:
This is a positive development because it makes Toncoin more accessible to everyday investors and improves the technology behind it. However, for Toncoin to keep growing, it needs to maintain steady increases in active users and wallet activity. (X (formerly Twitter))
3. Daily Combo User Engagement Spike (September 15, 2025)
What happened:
Toncoin’s Daily Combo challenges—puzzle games played through Telegram—reward users with SOON Points, which can be converted into $SOON tokens. In September alone, over 1.2 million combos were completed, helped by popular mini-games like Hamster Kombat.
Why it matters:
This short-term boost in user engagement is promising because it leverages Telegram’s massive user base (over 1 billion users) to onboard people with fun, low-barrier activities. The key challenge will be keeping users engaged after the initial excitement and token rewards fade. (Bitrue)
Conclusion
Toncoin is working to build trust with big investors through its treasury strategy while also growing its community with fun, interactive features on Telegram. Upgrades to its technology aim to support more users and transactions. The big question is whether Toncoin can turn Telegram’s huge audience into long-term blockchain users or if short-term hype will cause price swings. Keep an eye on upcoming data about wallet activity and decentralized finance (DeFi) growth in the next quarter.
What is expected in the development of TON?
Toncoin’s roadmap is focused on growing its ecosystem, expanding decentralized finance (DeFi) features, and integrating with major institutions.
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Token transfers will be three times faster, with better compatibility across DeFi platforms.
- TON Storage & Proxy Launch (2026) – Introduction of decentralized file storage and private, censorship-resistant browsing services.
- $400M Institutional Treasury (Ongoing) – Building a large fund to stabilize Toncoin’s supply and support ecosystem growth.
- Telegram Payment Integration (2026) – Bringing Toncoin wallet and payment features to over 1 billion Telegram users.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025)
What it is: This upgrade will make token transfers on Toncoin three times faster and improve how Toncoin works with other blockchain platforms. It supports smoother trading and liquidity pooling, which are important for decentralized finance apps like STON.fi and Dedust.
Why it matters: Faster transactions can attract more developers and users to build and use apps on Toncoin. However, delays or competition from other blockchains like Ethereum or Solana could pose challenges.
2. TON Storage & Proxy Launch (2026)
What it is: TON Storage will offer decentralized file sharing, while TON Proxy will provide anonymous and censorship-resistant internet browsing. Together, they complete Toncoin’s “Web3 suite,” aiming to compete with traditional cloud storage and VPN services.
Why it matters: These features could make Toncoin a go-to platform for privacy-focused users. Success depends on how easily people adopt these tools, and there may be regulatory challenges ahead.
3. $400M Institutional Treasury (Ongoing)
What it is: In partnership with Kingsway Capital, the TON Foundation is building a $400 million treasury to buy about 5% of Toncoin’s circulating supply. This helps reduce selling pressure and funds grants to support the ecosystem.
Why it matters: This move can help stabilize Toncoin’s price and support long-term growth. But it also raises concerns about centralization if institutions gain too much control over decision-making.
4. Telegram Payment Integration (2026)
What it is: Toncoin wallet features will be integrated directly into Telegram, which has over 1 billion users worldwide. This will allow users to make payments, manage subscriptions, and trade NFTs right inside the app. Recent wallet launches in the U.S. with 87 million users are testing this rollout.
Why it matters: This integration could drive massive adoption of Toncoin by making crypto payments easy and accessible. However, success depends on Telegram’s ability to navigate regulations and keep users engaged.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s roadmap combines important technical improvements with strategic partnerships to strengthen its position in the Web3 and digital payments space. While the outlook is positive, it’s important to watch for regulatory issues and market volatility driven by large holders.
How will TON’s integration with Telegram reshape crypto’s role in social media economies?
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin’s latest updates focus on making transactions faster and improving tools for developers.
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Transfer speeds for TON-based tokens are now three times faster.
- FunC Language Overhaul (September 12, 2025) – Simplified smart contract coding, making it easier for developers to build on TON.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)
Overview:
Jetton 2.0 is the token standard used on TON. With this upgrade, token transfers happen three times faster, which means less waiting time for users of decentralized apps and exchanges built on TON.
The upgrade improves how transactions are checked on the blockchain and allows multiple transactions to be processed at the same time. Tests show that confirmation times dropped from about 4.2 seconds to just 1.3 seconds during busy periods.
Why it matters:
Faster transfers make using Toncoin smoother for payments and trading. This could encourage more developers and projects to choose TON for their apps. (Source)
2. FunC Language Overhaul (September 12, 2025)
Overview:
FunC is TON’s programming language for creating smart contracts—self-executing agreements on the blockchain. The recent update simplifies the language’s syntax and adds new debugging tools to help developers catch errors early.
New features include automatic error detection, tools to estimate transaction costs (called gas), and compatibility with Ethereum’s Solidity language. These changes aim to attract developers familiar with traditional web programming (Web2). Early results show a 40% drop in errors when deploying contracts.
Why it matters:
Making smart contract coding easier could help grow TON’s decentralized app ecosystem. However, success depends on how well TON competes with other popular blockchains like Solana. (Source)
Conclusion
Toncoin is improving both transaction speed and developer experience, supporting its goal to expand Telegram’s Web3 ecosystem. These upgrades could boost developer interest and activity as we approach 2026.
Why did the price of TON go up?
Toncoin increased by 0.59% to $3.15 in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market’s 1.73% gain. Key factors behind this movement include:
- Institutional Support – Coinbase Ventures confirmed holding Toncoin (source), showing strong venture capital interest.
- More Trading Options – New Toncoin trading pairs launched on Gemini and Robinhood, making it easier for users to buy and sell.
- Growing Network Activity – Trading of memecoins on the Toncoin network jumped 113% month-over-month to $84.5 million, indicating increased user engagement.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Institutional Validation (Positive for Toncoin)
Summary: Coinbase Ventures joined well-known investors like Sequoia and Benchmark by adding Toncoin to their portfolios on August 11. This aligns with the TON Foundation’s plan to hold Toncoin as a treasury asset. Additionally, Verb Technology raised $558 million privately to build a TON treasury, which reduces the number of coins available on the market.
Why it matters: Having respected investors on board boosts Toncoin’s reputation as the “Telegram-native” cryptocurrency. This attracts more institutional investors who see Toncoin as a long-term asset, similar to how MicroStrategy invested in Bitcoin. Locking coins in a treasury reduces selling pressure, which can increase scarcity and potentially raise prices.
What to watch: Keep an eye on TON Strategy Co.’s effort to raise $400 million with Kingsway Capital to create a public treasury company for Toncoin.
2. Increased Retail Access (Positive for Toncoin)
Summary: Toncoin became available for trading on popular platforms Gemini and Robinhood this week. This coincided with a 53.95% jump in 24-hour trading volume to $203 million. Amazon Web Services (AWS) also added Toncoin to its blockchain data services, making it easier for developers to work with.
Why it matters: Listing Toncoin on mainstream exchanges lowers the barrier for Telegram’s over 1 billion users to buy and use Toncoin. AWS’s support helps developers build applications on the Toncoin network more easily. The volume spike suggests growing interest from everyday investors, though overall trading turnover remains low at 2.53%, which could mean liquidity risks.
Key point: If daily trading volume stays above $200 million, Toncoin could challenge resistance at $3.22, a key technical level.
3. Technical Market Signals (Mixed Outlook)
Summary: Toncoin’s price recently moved above its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3.16 and shows a positive MACD crossover, which often signals upward momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.07 is neutral, indicating no strong trend yet.
What this means: Short-term momentum favors buyers, but there is resistance around $3.34. If Toncoin closes above $3.22, it could aim for $3.44, the high from September 18. If it fails to hold above $3.10, the price might drop to that support level.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s recent price increase is driven by growing institutional support, easier access for retail investors, and positive technical signals. However, caution is advised since large holders control 68% of the supply (CoinMarketCap), which can impact price stability.
What to watch: Will Toncoin maintain support above $3.10 if Bitcoin’s market dominance (currently 57.03%) continues to rise? Also, monitor the progress of TON Strategy Co.’s treasury plans for signs of increased institutional demand.