What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin is navigating big corporate investments and Telegram’s massive user base.
- Corporate Treasury Buys – Some Nasdaq-listed companies are buying over $100 million in TON, with mixed effects on the market.
- Telegram Integration – Growing use of USDT and more wallets on Telegram boost Toncoin’s usefulness (positive sign).
- Regulatory Challenges – A visa-related rumor in the UAE caused a price drop, showing potential risks from regulations (negative sign).
Deep Dive
1. Corporate Treasury Accumulation (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Two Nasdaq-listed firms, AlphaTON Capital and TON Strategy Co., have purchased $30 million and $713 million worth of Toncoin, respectively. Their goal is to stake these tokens and support projects in the Toncoin ecosystem. However, both companies’ stock prices have dropped between 8% and 65% this year, showing some investor doubts.
What this means:
Positive: Less Toncoin available to trade and staking rewards (4–6% annual return) might help keep prices steady.
Negative: If these companies sell their holdings or face financial trouble, it could lead to a big sell-off and price drops.
2. Telegram’s Ecosystem Expansion (Bullish Impact)
Overview:
Toncoin is the backbone of Telegram’s Mini App economy, which serves over 1 billion users. Transactions using USDT (a stable cryptocurrency) have jumped 113% month-over-month. There are now more than 155 million Toncoin wallets, growing 20% in the last six months.
What this means:
Telegram’s huge user base could naturally increase demand for Toncoin, especially as more people use it to pay fees and participate in decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. The rise in USDT use helps reduce price swings, making Toncoin more stable.
3. Regulatory Headwinds (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
In July 2025, a rumor about a UAE golden visa linked to Toncoin briefly pushed prices up, but when officials denied the claim, prices dropped 5%. Also, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) 2020 lawsuit against Telegram’s earlier “Gram” token still casts a shadow.
What this means:
Regulatory uncertainty and negative news can scare off big investors. Clear rules, especially in the European Union under MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation), are essential for Toncoin’s future growth.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s price will depend on how well it balances corporate investment strategies, real-world use through Telegram, and regulatory clarity. Keep an eye on the end of 2025 when AlphaTON aims to complete its $100 million purchase and Telegram expands wallet access in the U.S. Will Toncoin’s connection to a popular social app help it handle big price swings caused by large investors?
What are people saying about TON?
Toncoin’s connection with Telegram is generating excitement, but large holders (whales) are causing some concern. Here’s the latest:
- Whales control 68% of TON – this could lead to price swings
- TONX stock looks undervalued, sparking optimistic bets
- $2.80 price level is key for a possible bounce
Deep Dive
1. @gabrelyanov: TONX stock seen as a "free money" chance – bullish
"They hold 149 million Toncoin… the stock trades below its net asset value while TON is integrating with Telegram’s 1 billion users."
– @gabrelyanov (89K followers · 1.2M impressions · September 16, 2025, 2:18 PM UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for TON because it shows strong institutional interest and suggests the stock price hasn’t caught up with TON’s growth within Telegram’s huge user base.
2. CoinMarketCap Community: Whale dominance raises concerns – bearish
"More than 68% of TON supply is held by whales… less than 20% is held long-term, increasing the risk of price swings."
– CoinMarketCap Analysis (June 27, 2025, 1:43 AM UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning for TON because when a few holders control most of the supply, they could sell large amounts suddenly, causing big price drops, especially since most holders don’t seem committed for the long term.
3. @ali_charts: Symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a big move ahead – mixed signals
"TON is trading within a triangle pattern – a breakout or breakdown will likely determine the next major price move."
– @ali_charts (480K followers · 3.8M impressions · September 2, 2025, 7:58 AM UTC)
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What this means: This is neutral for now. Technical analysis shows TON could either jump to around $4.30 or drop to about $2.60, depending on whether it breaks above or below the $3.39 price level.
Conclusion
Opinions on Toncoin are mixed. On one hand, Telegram’s massive user base and developments like TONX’s undervalued stock and Golden Visa partnerships create optimism. On the other hand, the heavy concentration of TON in whale wallets and the critical $2.80 support level add risk. Watch for daily closing prices below $2.75 as a bearish sign, or sustained trading above $3.40 as a signal of a potential breakout.
What is the latest news about TON?
Toncoin is showing mixed signals right now. Big companies are buying in, but the price hasn’t caught up yet. Here’s the latest update:
- Nasdaq Company Buys $30M in TON (Sept 26, 2025) – AlphaTON is aiming to build a $100M treasury even though Toncoin’s price dropped 13% this month.
- Regulators Investigate DAT Stock Trades (Sept 26, 2025) – The SEC is looking into unusual stock trading linked to TON Strategy Co. before crypto purchases.
- TON Looks to Bounce Back to $3 (Sept 26, 2025) – Despite a 16% drop in the past week, technical signs suggest a possible rebound.
In-Depth Look
1. Nasdaq Company Buys $30M in TON (September 26, 2025)
What happened:
AlphaTON Capital, a company listed on Nasdaq (ticker: ATON), bought $30 million worth of Toncoin. They plan to increase their holdings to $100 million by the end of 2025. This is happening even though Toncoin’s price has fallen 13% over the last month, and AlphaTON’s own stock dropped nearly 10%. The company intends to stake these tokens and invest in Telegram’s mini-app platform. This move follows TON Strategy Co., which bought $713 million worth of Toncoin in August.
Why it matters:
This shows strong long-term confidence from public companies, as AlphaTON and TON Strategy together hold about 3% of all Toncoin available. However, the price hasn’t responded positively yet, and there’s increased regulatory attention on the DAT sector, which could create short-term challenges (Cointelegraph).
2. Regulators Investigate DAT Stock Trades (September 26, 2025)
What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and FINRA are investigating unusual trading activity in stocks related to DATs, including TON Strategy Co., before announcements about buying cryptocurrencies. Despite holding over $700 million in Toncoin, TON Strategy’s stock price dropped 65% in 2025.
Why it matters:
This is a mixed signal for Toncoin. While it shows that big players are interested, the investigation raises concerns about possible market manipulation. This could hurt confidence among everyday investors (The Block).
3. TON Looks to Bounce Back to $3 (September 26, 2025)
What happened:
Toncoin is currently trading at $2.66, down 16% over the past week. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show it’s oversold, and trading volumes are increasing. Analysts see $2.60 as a key support level; if it holds, Toncoin could rebound to around $3.20.
Why it matters:
From a technical perspective, this is cautiously positive. But there’s some skepticism among traders, shown by a 16% drop in open interest (a measure of active positions). Plus, the overall cryptocurrency market lost $400 billion this week, which adds pressure (Crypto.news).
Conclusion
Toncoin is caught between two forces: big institutional buyers like AlphaTON and TON Strategy are accumulating tokens, but regulatory scrutiny and weak price movement are holding it back. While the oversold condition suggests a possible price recovery, the future depends on whether DATs can support Toncoin’s price without triggering regulatory problems. The question remains: will this “public treasury” approach become a strong driver for growth, or will it create new risks?
What is expected in the development of TON?
Toncoin’s roadmap through 2025 focuses on growing its ecosystem, improving technology, and building key partnerships.
- $400M Treasury Initiative (Q4 2025) – Teaming up with Kingsway Capital to lock Toncoin as a reserve asset.
- TON Teleport BTC Integration (2025) – Launching a testnet for easy Bitcoin transfers across blockchains.
- DeFi Liquidity Boost (Q4 2025) – Offering 5 million TON tokens as rewards to encourage stablecoin trading.
- TON Storage Mainnet Launch (2025) – Introducing payments for decentralized file storage using TON.
In Detail
1. $400M Treasury Initiative (Q4 2025)
What’s happening: The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital plan to raise $400 million to create a Toncoin treasury. This means locking up a large amount of Toncoin, which reduces how many coins are available on the market and shows strong support from big investors. This follows a previous $558 million private investment by Verb Technology in Toncoin.
Why it matters: This could help stabilize Toncoin’s price and make it more scarce, which is generally good for value. However, success depends on market conditions and how well the plan is executed.
2. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (2025)
What’s happening: TON will launch a testnet for tgBTC, a version of Bitcoin wrapped to work on the TON network. This will allow users to move Bitcoin across different blockchains smoothly, tapping into Telegram’s large user base.
Why it matters: This improves Toncoin’s usefulness by connecting it with Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency. The impact depends on security checks and Bitcoin’s price changes.
3. DeFi Liquidity Incentives (Q4 2025)
What’s happening: TON is offering 5 million TON tokens as rewards through partners like @ston_fi and @dedust_io to boost trading between TON and stablecoins like USDT. The goal is to reach over $1 billion in stablecoin trading volume.
Why it matters: This encourages more activity in Toncoin’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, which can increase transaction fees and overall network health. There’s a risk that some traders might sell their rewards quickly, causing short-term price dips.
4. TON Storage Mainnet Launch (2025)
What’s happening: TON will launch a decentralized storage service where users can pay for file storage using Toncoin.
Why it matters: This adds a practical use for Toncoin and positions it as part of the growing Web3 infrastructure. Success depends on how easy the service is for users to adopt.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s 2025 plans focus on managing supply through the treasury, expanding cross-chain capabilities with Bitcoin, growing DeFi activity, and building infrastructure with decentralized storage. These efforts aim to make TON a key part of Telegram’s Web3 ecosystem. Watch for updates on the treasury progress and DeFi trading volumes in Q4 2025 to see how these plans unfold.
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin’s latest updates focus on making transactions faster and expanding its ability to work with other blockchains.
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Token transfers are now three times faster thanks to improved smart contract design.
- TON Teleport BTC Testnet (September 4, 2025) – Enables moving Bitcoin onto the TON network, allowing Bitcoin and TON to work together more smoothly.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)
Overview: Jetton 2.0 is TON’s version of Ethereum’s popular ERC-20 token standard. This upgrade speeds up token transfers by simplifying how transactions are verified and reducing the computing power needed.
It also introduces batch processing, which means multiple token actions can be handled at once, and updates fee structures to better support frequent small payments, like those used in gaming or decentralized finance (DeFi). Developers can now create tokens with flexible features, making it easier to build new apps on TON.
Why it matters: Faster and cheaper token transfers improve the experience for users, especially in apps connected to Telegram. This could attract more developers and users to TON’s platform. (Source)
2. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (September 4, 2025)
Overview: This testnet lets users create tgBTC, a version of Bitcoin wrapped to work on the TON network, through decentralized custodians. This is a big step toward allowing Bitcoin and TON to interact directly.
The technology uses Bitcoin SPV (Simplified Payment Verification) within TON nodes, which means Bitcoin transactions can be verified securely without relying on third-party services. There’s also a bug bounty program offering up to $250,000 to find and fix any security issues.
Why it matters: Making Bitcoin compatible with TON opens up new possibilities for DeFi and could attract more institutional users by bringing Bitcoin liquidity to TON’s ecosystem. (Source)
Conclusion
These updates highlight TON’s focus on growing its network’s speed and ability to connect with other blockchains. As TON strengthens its position in Telegram’s Web3 space, these improvements could help it become a key player in Bitcoin’s expanding Layer-2 ecosystem.