What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin’s price is caught between Telegram’s big plans for its app and the ups and downs caused by large holders selling.
- Telegram’s Growing Ecosystem – Over 900 million users and a built-in wallet (good for adoption)
- Large Holder Control – 68% of Toncoin is owned by a few big wallets (could cause price swings)
- Regulatory Challenges – Past issues with the SEC and visa denials in the UAE (mixed effects)
Deep Dive
1. Telegram’s Growing Ecosystem (Positive for Toncoin)
Overview: Toncoin is becoming more integrated with Telegram, which has over 900 million users worldwide. The TON Wallet is now available to more than 87 million U.S. Telegram accounts. Partnerships like xStocks allow users to buy tokenized stocks such as MicroStrategy and NVIDIA through the wallet. The TON Foundation is also focusing on South Korea’s popular super-app culture by listing on Bithumb and launching K-pop campaigns to attract more users.
What this means: Having direct access to Telegram’s huge user base means more people could start using Toncoin for payments, staking, and decentralized finance (DeFi). If just 10% of Telegram users start using TON wallets, demand for Toncoin could increase by 50% to 100%, based on how users have moved from traditional apps to blockchain services before.
2. Large Holder Control (Risk for Price Stability)
Overview: More than 68% of Toncoin’s total supply is held by a small number of large wallets, with the biggest wallet owning about 25.7% (source). When these big holders sell, it has caused Toncoin’s price to drop significantly—down 65% from its all-time high.
What this means: Because so much Toncoin is controlled by a few, if they decide to sell even a small portion (like 5%), it could cause the price to fall sharply below $2.50, which is an important support level. On the other hand, Toncoin offers high staking rewards (up to 300% annual percentage rate), which encourages holders to keep their coins locked up, potentially reducing sudden sell-offs.
3. Regulatory Challenges (Mixed Effects)
Overview: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is still involved in a lawsuit against Telegram’s earlier Gram token, which creates uncertainty. Recently, a TON-related golden visa program was denied in the UAE, causing a 10% price drop. However, Japan’s Laser Digital is applying for a license to work with Toncoin, showing some institutional interest.
What this means: Clearer regulations in major markets like the U.S. and Europe could open doors for Toncoin to be included in ETFs or custody services, attracting more investors. But ongoing uncertainty might slow down big institutional investments. Toncoin’s focus on markets outside the U.S., like Asia and Africa, helps reduce some of these risks.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s price will depend on how well Telegram’s user growth balances against the risks from large holders selling. If Toncoin breaks above $3.50, it could gain momentum toward $5.30, according to analysts. But if it falls below $2.80, it might trigger more selling. Watch the $2.80 to $3.20 price range closely for signs of a breakout. Will Toncoin’s high staking rewards keep big holders from selling? That’s the key question going forward.
What are people saying about TON?
Toncoin’s buzz swings between concerns about big holders and excitement about its growing ecosystem. Here’s what’s trending:
- Whales control 68% of TON – worries about price swings vs. Telegram’s huge user base potential
- $3.24 support level tested – 1.2 million wallets hold this price point amid futures trading activity
- Golden Visa program hype – staking TON could cut UAE residency costs by 80%
Deep Dive
1. @CoinMarketCap: Big holders raise concerns about price stability bearish
“Over 68% of TON supply sits in whale wallets… less than 20% held long-term”
– CoinMarketCap (June 27, 2025 · 8:43 AM UTC)
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What this means: When a few large holders (whales) own most of the coins, it can lead to sudden price drops if they decide to sell. However, Telegram’s integration with over a billion users could help balance this risk by increasing real-world use.
2. @ali_charts: $3.24 is a critical price point mixed
“1.21M wallets hold 740M TON at $3.24… futures open interest jumped 33% to $190M”
– @ali_charts (May 30, 2025 · 6:00 AM UTC · 12.4K impressions)
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What this means: Many traders expect price movement. If TON falls below $3.24, it could trigger forced selling (liquidations). But if it holds, it might bounce back.
3. @CoinMarketCap: Golden Visa program boosts adoption bullish
“Staking TON reduces UAE residency fees by 80%… linked to Telegram’s ecosystem”
– CoinMarketCap (August 12, 2025 · 1:35 PM UTC)
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What this means: Using TON to stake (lock up coins) could make it much cheaper to get residency in the UAE, attracting more users. However, official approval from UAE regulators is still pending.
Conclusion
The outlook on Toncoin is mixed. Positive stories about Telegram’s involvement compete with concerns over big holders causing price swings. Keep an eye on the $3.24 support level and Telegram’s upcoming Web3 developments. New exchange listings like Robinhood and Gemini, plus support from AWS blockchain services, add credibility. The key question: does TON’s price reflect real growth or just whale influence?
What is the latest news about TON?
Toncoin is making big moves with plans for a super app and tokenized stocks, but it’s also facing a crucial price test. Here’s the latest:
- Super App Plans (October 5, 2025) – TON aims to bring crypto payments and gaming to Telegram users in South Korea.
- Tokenized Stocks Launch (October 3, 2025) – Telegram Wallet will let users buy fractional shares of U.S. companies through a partnership with Kraken.
- Price Support Challenge (October 5, 2025) – Analysts say $2 is a key price level; falling below could lead to a bigger drop.
In-Depth Look
1. Super App Plans (October 5, 2025)
What’s Happening:
At the Token2049 conference, TON’s CEO Max Crown shared a vision to turn Telegram into a “super app” powered by blockchain technology. This app would combine payments, gaming, and decentralized finance (DeFi) features. With 900 million Telegram users and 150 million TON wallets already active, the goal is to double wallet users within a year. South Korea is a focus because of its strong super-app culture, inspired by platforms like KakaoTalk. Plans include partnerships with K-pop stars and special stablecoin features for sending money locally.
Why It Matters:
This could be a big boost for TON by making it easier for everyday users to access crypto services, especially in South Korea’s tech-savvy market. However, challenges like government regulations on cross-border payments could slow progress. (TokenPost)
2. Tokenized Stocks Launch (October 3, 2025)
What’s Happening:
Telegram Wallet will soon allow users to buy fractional shares of over 60 U.S. companies, including big names like NVIDIA and MicroStrategy. This is made possible through a partnership with Kraken and Backed’s xStocks platform. The feature will first target emerging markets, letting users trade tokenized stocks right inside Telegram.
Why It Matters:
This move expands TON’s use beyond just crypto trading, connecting it to traditional stock markets. While promising, success depends on clear regulations and enough trading activity. If it works, TON could become a key link between crypto and regular investments. (Cryptonews)
3. Price Support Challenge (October 5, 2025)
What’s Happening:
Toncoin’s price is testing an important support level at $2. Analysts warn that if it falls below this, the price could drop further to around $1.20. Data shows ongoing selling pressure and significant inflows of TON into exchanges, which often signals bearish sentiment.
Why It Matters:
This is a short-term warning sign that buyers aren’t stepping in strongly. Holding above $2.50 could help stabilize the price, but dropping below $2 might shake confidence in TON’s recent progress. (AMBCrypto)
Summary
Toncoin is growing quickly with exciting new features like a Telegram super app and tokenized stocks. But it’s also facing technical challenges and price volatility that could impact its near-term outlook. The big question: Will South Korea’s active crypto community help TON overcome these hurdles? Keep an eye on wallet growth and the $2 price level for clues on where TON is headed.
What is expected in the development of TON?
Toncoin’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:
- Stable Swap Integration (Q4 2025) – Launching stablecoin swaps through a partnership with Curve Finance to improve decentralized finance (DeFi) options.
- TON Storage Mainnet Launch (Q1 2026) – Rolling out decentralized file storage where users can pay with Toncoin.
- Cross-Chain Scalability Upgrades (Q4 2025) – Enhancing the ability to transfer assets between TON, Bitcoin, and Ethereum-compatible blockchains after retiring the old bridge.
- TON Developers Program Expansion (2026) – Increasing grants and tools to support developers building on TON, especially in gaming, AI, and Telegram mini-apps.
Deep Dive
1. Stable Swap Integration (Q4 2025)
Overview
The TON Foundation has teamed up with Curve Finance to introduce a “Stable Swap” protocol on the TON blockchain. This technology helps reduce price swings when trading stablecoins—cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value—using an automated market-making system. To encourage growth, a 5 million TON incentive program will support liquidity and adoption of USDT-TON trading pairs (KoinSaati).
What this means
This development is positive for Toncoin because better liquidity in DeFi can attract more users and projects. However, it faces competition from well-established platforms on Ethereum, which is currently the leading blockchain for DeFi.
2. TON Storage Mainnet Launch (Q1 2026)
Overview
TON Storage is a decentralized file storage service, similar to Dropbox but powered by blockchain technology. It allows users to store files securely and pay for storage using Toncoin. This launch completes an important part of TON’s vision for Web3, a more decentralized internet (TON Primer).
What this means
This is somewhat positive, as it adds real-world use cases for Toncoin. However, its success depends on how well it integrates with Telegram, which has over 1 billion users. Amazon Web Services recently added TON to its public blockchain datasets, which could speed up development (Gabrelyanov).
3. Cross-Chain Scalability Upgrades (Q4 2025)
Overview
After shutting down the old Toncoin Bridge in May 2025, TON is focusing on new solutions to make it easier to move assets between TON, Bitcoin, and Ethereum-compatible blockchains. This will be done through partnerships with LayerZero and Symbiosis, aiming to improve speed and security (Cryptotimes).
What this means
If successful, this will be a big plus for Toncoin by attracting developers and increasing liquidity. However, there is a risk of delays in fully replacing the old bridge, which could slow down adoption.
4. TON Developers Program Expansion (2026)
Overview
The TON Foundation plans to increase funding and provide more tools for developers, especially those working on gaming, artificial intelligence, and Telegram mini-apps. A recent $400 million treasury raise indicates strong financial support for these efforts (Assemble).
What this means
This is a positive long-term sign, as more developer activity usually leads to a stronger network. However, a large portion of Toncoin (68%) is held by a few big holders, which could limit broader community participation.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s roadmap shows a balanced approach, focusing on DeFi innovation, infrastructure improvements, and incentives to grow its ecosystem. Key challenges include dependence on Telegram’s regulatory status and competition from faster blockchains. The success of cross-chain upgrades and decentralized storage will be crucial in determining if TON can become a top 10 blockchain by 2026.
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin’s software has been upgraded with a focus on improving speed, decentralized finance (DeFi) features, and the ability to work across different blockchains.
- Jetton 2.0 Launch (September 10, 2025) – Transfer speeds for TON-based tokens have tripled.
- Stable Swap Integration (September 4, 2025) – Reduced price slippage for stablecoin trades using Curve Finance.
- TON Teleport BTC Testnet (September 4, 2025) – Enabled Bitcoin transactions across blockchains on TON.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Launch (September 10, 2025)
Overview: Jetton 2.0 is an upgrade to TON’s token system that makes transactions faster for TON-based assets like meme coins and stablecoins.
This update allows multiple transactions to be processed at the same time and simplifies smart contract operations, cutting transfer times by three times. This improvement is especially important for frequent transactions, such as payments inside Telegram or gaming.
What this means: This is positive for Toncoin because faster transfers improve user experience, reduce network congestion, and encourage more developers to build on TON. (Source)
2. Stable Swap Integration (September 4, 2025)
Overview: TON teamed up with Curve Finance to introduce a "Stable Swap" protocol, which reduces price slippage when swapping stablecoins like USDT and TON.
This system uses a special algorithm called Constant Function Market Maker (CFMM) to keep liquidity pools stable. This helps solve volatility problems that previously discouraged big investors from using TON’s DeFi services.
What this means: This is good news for Toncoin because it makes DeFi more reliable, lowers trading costs, and could increase the use of stablecoins among Telegram’s over 1 billion users. (Source)
3. TON Teleport BTC Testnet (September 4, 2025)
Overview: TON launched a test version of its Bitcoin bridge, allowing users to create tgBTC (a wrapped version of Bitcoin) on the TON network.
This bridge uses zero-knowledge proofs, a technology that enables secure and trustless transfers between blockchains. The full version is planned for release in late 2025. This makes TON a potential hub for Bitcoin liquidity within Telegram’s ecosystem.
What this means: This is promising for Toncoin because it links Bitcoin’s massive market (over $1 trillion) to TON’s DeFi applications, opening up new opportunities for earning yield. (Source)
Conclusion
Toncoin’s recent upgrades focus on faster transactions, better DeFi tools, and Bitcoin compatibility—key factors for widespread adoption through Telegram. While these technical improvements are impressive, the question remains: can TON keep up developer interest and compete with other platforms like Solana?