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Why did the price of TON go up?

Toncoin (TON) increased by 2.4% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 1.7%. The main reasons behind this rise are:

  1. Institutional Buying – AlphaTON Capital boosted its TON holdings by 300,000 tokens (worth $708,000) on October 12, showing strong confidence (AlphaTON).
  2. Technical Bounce – Indicators showed TON was oversold, especially the RSI at 32.1, and support near $2.28 encouraged short-term buying.
  3. Market Recovery – The crypto fear/greed index improved from "Fear" to "Neutral," helping riskier assets like TON recover after a recent sharp drop.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Institutional Demand (Positive for TON)

Summary:
AlphaTON Capital, a company listed on Nasdaq, bought 300,000 TON tokens ($708,000) on October 12. This adds to their previous purchase of 1.1 million TON last week. This follows a $558 million private investment by Verb Technology in August, aimed at building a treasury focused on TON.

Why it matters:
When big investors buy large amounts of TON, it reduces the number of tokens available on the market (currently 2.52 billion TON). This strategy is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin, attracting more traditional investors. Plus, TON offers staking rewards of 4-6% annually, making it a good option for companies looking to earn steady returns on their holdings.

What to watch:
Look out for upcoming financial reports from AlphaTON and Verb in Q3 2025 to see how much TON they hold and how much they are earning from staking.

2. Technical Bounce (Mixed Signals)

Summary:
TON’s price bounced back from a key support level at $2.28, which is based on a common technical analysis tool called the Fibonacci retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 32.1, indicating the coin was oversold for the first time since July 2025.

What this means:
Traders saw this dip as a chance to buy TON at a lower price. However, there is resistance ahead at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around $3.35, which could limit further gains. The MACD indicator, which measures momentum, is still negative, suggesting the upward move might be short-lived.

Key price levels:
If TON closes above $2.65 (another Fibonacci level), it could push higher to around $2.82, near the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

3. Market Sentiment After Flash Crash (Neutral Impact)

Summary:
On October 11, a sudden market crash caused $19 billion in liquidations, and TON’s price dropped 41% to $1.39 before bouncing back. By October 13, the crypto fear/greed index improved from 31 ("Fear") to 40 ("Neutral").

What this means:
TON’s recovery is part of a broader market stabilization, but its price is still 26% below where it was before the crash. Trading volume is low, at just 4.2% of its market cap, which means there isn’t much liquidity. This can lead to more price swings and volatility.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent 24-hour price increase is driven by opportunistic buying after it became oversold, combined with strong institutional interest. However, risks remain due to ongoing global economic tensions (like U.S.-China tariffs) and weak trading volume, which could affect how long this recovery lasts.

What to watch next: Can TON maintain support at $2.36, especially as Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative by $4.5 million on October 12?


What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s price is caught between positive growth in its ecosystem and broader economic risks.

  1. Institutional Treasury Moves – A $558 million private fund supporting TON’s treasury could reduce the number of coins available for trading.
  2. Geopolitical Risks – U.S.-China trade tensions caused a sharp 41% price drop on October 11.
  3. Ecosystem Momentum – Integration with Telegram, partnerships in decentralized finance (DeFi), and new exchange listings are helping Toncoin gain users.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Accumulation (Positive for Price)

Overview: Since early October, AlphaTON Capital and Verb Technology have bought 1.4 million TON (worth about $3.3 million), following a strategy similar to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases. There’s also a plan for a $400 million treasury fund that would hold about 5% of all Toncoin, which could reduce the number of coins available to sell.

What this means: These strategic buys could help stabilize Toncoin’s price by taking coins off the market. However, since the top 100 wallets control 68% of all Toncoin, if these large holders decide to sell, it could cause big price swings (CoinMarketCap).

2. Geopolitical & Regulatory Risks (Negative for Price)

Overview: On October 11, threats of tariffs from former President Trump against China led to a $19 billion sell-off in cryptocurrencies, causing Toncoin’s price to drop 41% in one day. Regulatory uncertainty also remains, with UAE officials denying any TON-related residency programs planned for July 2025.

What this means: Toncoin is still vulnerable to global economic shocks and unclear regulations. If the price falls below the $2.30 support level (currently at $2.36), it could revisit the low of $1.90 seen in June 2025 (Crypto.news).

3. Ecosystem Adoption (Mixed Effects)

Overview: Toncoin’s connection with Telegram, which has over 1 billion users, and the addition of USDT support have increased daily active users by 20% in the third quarter. However, interest in “tap-to-earn” apps has declined since August, slowing network growth.

What this means: Real-world uses like sending money through Telegram could boost demand for Toncoin. Still, competition from other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions puts pressure on Toncoin’s market share (Gate.io).

Conclusion

Toncoin’s future depends on balancing Telegram’s huge user base with risks from global economic events and large holders’ actions. While treasury funds and DeFi partnerships offer growth potential, traders should watch the $2.30 to $2.65 price range for signs of a breakout. The key question remains: will institutional buying make up for the damage caused by October’s geopolitical tensions?


What are people saying about TON?

Toncoin’s connection with Telegram brings optimism, but large holders controlling most of the supply cause some concern. Here’s the quick summary:

  1. Potential breakout – Traders see a triangle pattern that could lead to a 50% price jump
  2. Whale caution – 68% of Toncoin is held by a few big players, raising worries about price swings
  3. Growing ecosystem – Partnerships with major exchanges and Amazon Web Services (AWS) add real-world value

In-Depth Look

1. Triangle Pattern Signals Possible Big Price Move (Bullish)

According to @ali_charts, Toncoin is trading within a triangle pattern, which often signals a big price move ahead. If Toncoin breaks above the $2.60 resistance level, it could climb to around $3.90.
See original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for Toncoin. Triangle patterns usually come before strong price increases, so traders are watching closely for a breakout.

2. Large Holders Control Most of Toncoin (Bearish)

The CoinMarketCap Community points out that whales—large holders—own about 68% of Toncoin’s supply. This concentration can lead to higher price volatility and risks if these holders decide to sell. Only 20% of investors seem to hold Toncoin for the long term, which could weaken support if prices fall to $2.36, down 65% from its all-time high.
See original post
What this means: This is a warning sign. When a few holders control most of the supply, it can cause sharp price drops if they sell, making the market less stable.

3. Staking Toncoin Offers Real Benefits (Bullish)

The official @ton_blockchain account shared that staking Toncoin can reduce Golden Visa costs by 80%.
See original post
What this means: This adds real-world value to Toncoin beyond trading. By staking, users get discounts on immigration services, encouraging people to hold Toncoin and use it in practical ways.

Conclusion

Opinions on Toncoin are mixed. Technical analysis suggests there’s room for price growth, but the dominance of large holders and less excitement around earning through small transactions create uncertainty. Keep an eye on the $2.50 to $2.80 price range—holding this support could lead to a rally, especially with Telegram’s huge user base helping spread adoption. If prices fall below this range, the next test could be the $2.15 low from June. For early signs of market moves, watch whale wallet activity on TonViewer.


What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is making moves with big investors and expanding its ecosystem, but it’s also facing some regulatory challenges. Here’s a quick update:

  1. AlphaTON Increases TON Holdings (October 13, 2025) – AlphaTON Capital bought 300,000 TON tokens, showing confidence in the Telegram-linked blockchain.
  2. $400 Million Treasury Plan (July 25, 2025) – TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital launched a plan to manage a large TON reserve, aiming to attract traditional investors.
  3. UAE Rejects TON Golden Visa Claims (July 7, 2025) – The UAE government denied reports about a residency program tied to staking TON tokens.

In-Depth Look

1. AlphaTON Increases TON Holdings (October 13, 2025)

What happened:
AlphaTON Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: ATON) bought 300,000 TON tokens on October 12, following a previous purchase of 1.1 million TON tokens the week before. The company has very low debt and focuses on holding TON tokens without any financial obligations attached.

Why it matters:
This shows that some big investors believe in TON’s future, especially as it relates to Telegram’s platform. Buying more tokens could reduce the number available on the market, which might affect the price. However, since large holders control about 68% of all TON tokens, the price could still be quite volatile.
(Source: PANews)

2. $400 Million Treasury Plan (July 25, 2025)

What happened:
The TON Foundation teamed up with Kingsway Capital to create a treasury company listed on NASDAQ. This company plans to hold about 5% of all TON tokens, similar to how MicroStrategy holds Bitcoin to attract traditional financial investors.

Why it matters:
This move could help stabilize TON’s price by locking up a significant amount of tokens and making TON more attractive as a reserve asset. However, after the announcement, TON’s price dropped by about 4.4%, indicating some investors are unsure about how well this plan will work.
(Source: Bloomberg)

3. UAE Rejects TON Golden Visa Claims (July 7, 2025)

What happened:
The United Arab Emirates government clarified that there is no official approval for a program offering residency in exchange for staking $100,000 worth of TON tokens plus a $35,000 fee. This contradicts earlier statements from the TON Foundation.

Why it matters:
This denial hurts a major adoption story for TON. After the news, TON’s price dropped by 5%, showing how risky it can be when partnerships or programs are announced without formal government backing.
(Source: The Block)

Conclusion

Toncoin is at a crossroads, balancing growing interest from big investors and ecosystem development with regulatory hurdles. While Telegram’s large user base (over 1 billion users) offers a strong foundation for growth, the concentration of tokens among a few holders and unconfirmed partnerships suggest caution. The key question remains: will TON’s technical improvements lead to real-world use beyond just investment speculation?


What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s roadmap is focused on growing its ecosystem, upgrading technology, and increasing adoption by institutions.

  1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Faster transactions and better token features.
  2. TON-Ethereum Bridge Shutdown (Completed) – Moving to more scalable cross-chain solutions.
  3. TON Strategy Co. Launch (Q1 2026) – $558 million treasury to support global financial integration.
  4. AWS Blockchain Integration (2026) – Easier access to blockchain data for developers.

Deep Dive

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025)

Overview: The Jetton 2.0 upgrade will make token transfers up to three times faster and introduce improved token standards. This will help Toncoin’s decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) platforms work better. Recently, Toncoin saw a big increase in memecoin trading volume ($84.5 million, up 113% month-over-month), and Telegram added collectible NFTs that can be used across different apps (Gabrelyanov, X).

What this means: This upgrade is positive for Toncoin’s usefulness because faster transactions can attract more decentralized apps (dApps). However, there is a risk of delays or technical issues during the upgrade.

2. TON-Ethereum Bridge Transition (Completed)

Overview: The old bridge connecting Toncoin with Ethereum was shut down in May 2025. Assets were moved to newer platforms like LayerZero and Symbiosis, which offer better cross-chain performance. Historically, over $101 million worth of Toncoin was moved through this bridge, but now Toncoin is focusing on growing its own DeFi ecosystem (Cryptotimes).

What this means: In the short term, this may limit Toncoin’s ability to interact with Ethereum-based projects, which could slow growth. But in the long run, focusing on its own liquidity and ecosystem is a positive step.

3. TON Strategy Co. Treasury Initiative (Q1 2026)

Overview: A $558 million private investment led by Kingsway Capital will create a treasury to support Toncoin as a reserve asset, aiming to hold 5% of all Toncoin in circulation. This effort is part of Verb Technology’s rebranding to TON Strategy Co., which aims to boost adoption by financial institutions (CoinLive).

What this means: This move should help stabilize Toncoin’s price and reduce the number of coins available on the market. However, since a few large holders control 68% of Toncoin, price swings remain a risk.

4. AWS Public Blockchain Data Integration (2026)

Overview: Amazon Web Services (AWS) will host Toncoin’s blockchain data, making it easier for developers to access and analyze information. This comes after Toncoin was listed on popular trading platforms like Robinhood and Gemini, increasing exposure to everyday investors and institutions (Gabrelyanov, X).

What this means: This is good news for Toncoin’s growth because easier data access can encourage new projects and innovation. Keep an eye on how widely AWS services are adopted after launch.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s roadmap balances technical improvements (Jetton 2.0, AWS integration) with strategic financial partnerships (TON Strategy Co.), setting it up for wider adoption. While risks like large holder concentration and regulatory challenges exist, Toncoin benefits from Telegram’s huge user base of over 900 million and growing DeFi activity (for example, $17.4 million in daily fees).

What to watch: Progress on the Jetton 2.0 upgrade and how institutions respond to the $558 million treasury initiative.


What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s latest software updates focus on making development easier, improving security, and boosting performance.

  1. FunC Language Upgrade (September 12, 2025) – Simplifies smart contract coding to attract more developers.
  2. Jetton 2.0 Launch (September 10, 2025) – Triples token transfer speeds through protocol improvements.
  3. ChainPatrol Security Integration (August 19, 2025) – Uses AI to detect threats targeting wallets and decentralized apps (dApps).
  4. TVM Vulnerability Patch (July 21, 2025) – Fixed a critical bug to prevent network crashes.

Deep Dive

1. FunC Language Upgrade (September 12, 2025)

Overview: The FunC programming language, used for writing smart contracts on Toncoin, received major updates. These changes make it easier for developers coming from other platforms like Ethereum (which uses Solidity) or Solana (which uses Rust) to start building on TON.

The upgrade includes better error messages, more organized code structure, and expanded libraries for common decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) projects. It also adds tools that automatically optimize gas usage, which can lower the cost of deploying contracts by about 18% based on early tests.

What this means: This is good news for TON because simpler coding tools can speed up the creation of new projects. With easier development, more apps can launch faster, potentially attracting users from Telegram’s huge base of over 1 billion people. (Source)

2. Jetton 2.0 Launch (September 10, 2025)

Overview: Jetton is TON’s token standard, similar to how Ethereum has ERC-20 tokens. The new Jetton 2.0 update makes token transfers three times faster by streamlining how transactions are processed and reducing unnecessary data stored on the blockchain.

This update also introduces batch processing, allowing multiple transactions to be handled together, and dynamic sharding, which helps manage high volumes of token activity. Tests show transfer times dropped from about 5.2 seconds to 1.7 seconds on average.

What this means: This is somewhat positive for TON because faster transactions improve user experience, especially for payment features integrated with Telegram. However, validators (the network nodes that confirm transactions) will need to upgrade their software, which could be challenging for smaller operators. (Source)

3. ChainPatrol Security Integration (August 19, 2025)

Overview: TON teamed up with ChainPatrol to add AI-powered security that scans for phishing websites, fake wallets, and harmful smart contracts targeting TON users.

The system monitors over 10,000 Telegram bots daily and blocks suspicious domains in real time. There’s also a community reward program encouraging users to report security issues.

What this means: This is a positive development for TON because stronger security helps protect everyday users on Telegram, building trust in TON-based DeFi and NFT projects. (Source)

4. TVM Vulnerability Patch (July 21, 2025)

Overview: A serious bug was found and fixed in TON’s Virtual Machine (TVM), the software that runs smart contracts. The flaw could have caused network nodes to crash due to a null-pointer error.

Fixing this required rewriting nearly a quarter of the TVM’s message-handling code and adding stricter runtime checks. Fortunately, no funds were lost. The incident highlighted the challenges TON faces as its transaction volume grew by 214% year-over-year.

What this means: This is neutral news for TON. The quick fix shows the team’s technical skill, but repeated outages—like a 40-minute downtime in June 2025—raise concerns about whether TON is ready for large-scale, enterprise-level use. (Source)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent updates focus on making it easier for developers to build (FunC upgrade), improving user security (ChainPatrol), and increasing transaction speed (Jetton 2.0). However, network stability still needs improvement. As Telegram continues to integrate TON, the big question is whether TON can offer both easy access for everyday users and the reliability expected by larger businesses.