What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin’s price is balancing between growing interest from big investors and ongoing risks.
- Corporate Treasuries – Over $558 million raised to hold Toncoin long-term (positive sign)
- Telegram Integration – Access to 900 million+ users could boost adoption (uncertain)
- Whale Dominance – Large holders control 68% of supply (potential risk)
Deep Dive
1. Corporate Treasuries & Staking (Positive Impact)
Overview: TON Strategy Co. and AlphaTON Capital Corp. have raised more than $558 million to buy and hold Toncoin as part of their company assets, similar to how MicroStrategy invested in Bitcoin. These companies plan to stake their Toncoin, which means locking it up to earn rewards, reducing the amount available for trading. Together, corporate holdings now make up about 9% of all Toncoin.
What this means: With fewer coins available to sell and companies earning rewards by staking, the supply tightens. History shows that when big companies do this, it can lead to price increases if the trend continues.
2. Telegram’s 900 Million User Base (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Toncoin is the default blockchain used by Telegram for payments, advertising, and gaming. Telegram has over 900 million users worldwide, offering a huge potential audience. However, actual use of Toncoin within Telegram is still limited. Recent efforts like USDT-TON liquidity incentives and mini-apps are designed to increase Toncoin’s usefulness.
What this means: Whether Toncoin becomes widely used depends on how well Telegram rolls out these features. If successful, it could be similar to how WeChat dominates mobile payments in China. But there are risks, including regulatory challenges like the SEC’s 2020 lawsuit against Telegram’s earlier token project.
3. Whale-Driven Volatility (Potential Risk)
Overview: Large holders, known as whales, control 68% of Toncoin’s total supply. The top 100 wallets alone hold over 740 million tokens. On-chain data shows some positive technical signals, but the price is still vulnerable to big sell-offs from these whales.
What this means: When so much supply is controlled by a few, the market can be unstable. If the price falls below $1.78 (a key technical level), it could trigger a wave of forced selling, causing prices to drop further.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s future depends on whether corporate buying can balance out the risks from large holders, while growth in Telegram’s ecosystem remains uncertain. Technical analysis points to a possible price floor near $2.12, but a strong recovery will need steady buying pressure.
Watch: Will TON Strategy Co.’s continued buying align with Telegram’s next major product launch?
What are people saying about TON?
Toncoin’s connection with Telegram is generating excitement, but big holders controlling most of the supply and key technical levels make traders cautious. Here’s what’s trending:
- Bullish signals aim for $3.50 and above – Analysts expect a price jump if Toncoin breaks through important resistance.
- Telegram’s 1 billion users could boost adoption – Growth in the Telegram ecosystem supports long-term optimism.
- Whales hold 68% of Toncoin supply – This concentration raises concerns about market control despite network improvements.
- Companies are buying Toncoin for their treasuries – Public firms like TON Strategy Co. are making significant investments.
Deep Dive
1. @CobakOfficial: Telegram Integration Drives Momentum
"Even as the market dips, Toncoin (TON) gained 4% in a day [...] Key updates point to a positive outlook."
– @CobakOfficial (1.2M followers · 850K impressions · 2025-08-02 19:00 UTC) | View original post
What this means: This is good news for TON because Telegram’s huge user base provides a ready audience for payments, NFTs, and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
2. @ali_charts: Symmetrical Triangle Suggests Upcoming Volatility
"Toncoin $TON is trading within a triangle pattern, signaling a possible 50% price move soon!"
– @ali_charts (480K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-02 07:58 UTC) | View original post
What this means: Neutral to positive – If Toncoin breaks above $3.50, it could start a rally. But if it fails, the price might drop back to around $2.60 support.
3. CoinMarketCap Community: Whale Ownership Raises Concerns
"More than 68% of Toncoin’s supply is held by a few large holders (whales) [...] Only 20% are long-term holders, indicating speculative trading."
– CoinMarketCap analysis (2025-06-27) | View post
What this means: This is a warning sign – When a few big holders control most of the supply, they can influence the market by selling large amounts suddenly.
4. TON Strategy Co.: $558 Million Corporate Treasury Investment
"Public companies are adding Toncoin to their treasury assets [...] This aligns with Telegram’s user base of over 900 million."
– Yahoo Finance (2025-10-23) | View article
What this means: Positive for the long term – Institutional buying could reduce the number of coins available for trading and help stabilize prices.
Conclusion
The outlook for Toncoin is mixed. On one hand, Telegram’s large ecosystem offers strong growth potential. On the other, the fact that whales control 68% of the supply adds risk. Technical indicators suggest a price increase if Toncoin breaks above $3.50, but the $2.80–$3.20 range will be important to watch this week. A close outside this range could set the tone for Toncoin’s performance in the fourth quarter.
Will big company purchases balance out cautious retail investors? Keep an eye on Toncoin’s exchange reserves for signs.
What is the latest news about TON?
Toncoin is making moves with corporate investors and growing within Telegram’s platform, even as the overall crypto market faces challenges. Here’s the latest:
- Big Companies Invest in TON (October 23, 2025) – Public firms have locked up $558 million worth of Toncoin to reduce supply and align their interests with the coin’s success.
- TON Strategy Co. Rolls Out Treasury Plan (October 22, 2025) – The company aims to hold 5% of all TON coins, using Telegram’s 900 million+ users to boost adoption.
- Technical Recovery Signs (October 22, 2025) – TON bounced back 290% from a recent low but is facing resistance at key price levels.
In-Depth Look
1. Big Companies Invest in TON (October 23, 2025)
What’s Happening:
Companies like TON Strategy Co. and AlphaTON Capital are buying and holding TON as part of their corporate treasury. Together, they’ve locked away about 9% of all Toncoin available. TON Strategy’s $558 million plan includes earning rewards through staking and supporting the TON ecosystem. AlphaTON also bought $30 million worth of TON through a Nasdaq-listed company. These moves reduce the number of coins available for trading and connect the companies’ financial success to TON’s performance.
Why It Matters:
This is a positive sign for TON. With fewer coins available to trade, the price could rise if demand increases. However, if these companies decide to sell large amounts suddenly, it could put downward pressure on the price. Analysts compare this to how big institutions adopted Bitcoin but note that TON’s staking rewards add a unique factor. (Yahoo Finance)
2. TON Strategy Co. Rolls Out Treasury Plan (October 22, 2025)
What’s Happening:
TON Strategy Co., formerly known as Verb Technology, raised $558 million to buy TON coins, aiming to hold 5% of the total supply. Their approach is similar to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy but includes earning staking rewards and integrating with Telegram’s payment features. CEO Manuel Stotz highlighted TON’s role in Telegram’s “super-app” vision, which includes services like money transfers and gaming.
Why It Matters:
This institutional support shows confidence in TON’s value within Telegram’s ecosystem. However, the plan depends on Telegram complying with regulations, such as sharing user IP addresses, which could pose risks. (The Block)
3. Technical Recovery Signs (October 22, 2025)
What’s Happening:
TON’s price jumped 290% from a low of $0.54 on October 10 to $2.12 but is struggling to break above the 200-day moving average at $2.30. Technical indicators like RSI suggest hidden strength, while MACD remains neutral. If the price falls below $1.80, the recent recovery could fail. But if buying continues, TON might test $3.50.
Why It Matters:
The technical picture is mixed. While the price is consolidating, corporate buying and Telegram’s growing user base (which saw $84.5 million in memecoin trading volume in September) could help TON resist broader crypto market weakness. (Yahoo Finance)
Conclusion
Toncoin’s future depends on how corporate investors manage their holdings, how quickly Telegram users adopt TON, and the overall mood in the altcoin market. While fewer coins available for sale could support the price, risks remain from large holders controlling 68% of the supply and regulatory scrutiny of Telegram. The key question is whether TON’s payment features can help it stand apart from general crypto market trends.
What is expected in the development of TON?
Toncoin’s development is moving forward with key milestones:
- EVM-Compatible Workchains (2026) – These will let developers run Ethereum-style smart contracts on TON.
- TON Storage Mainnet Launch (Q1 2026) – A decentralized file storage system integrated with Telegram.
- DeFi Liquidity Program (Q4 2025) – A 5 million TON incentive program to encourage stablecoin trading.
- TON Proxy & TON Sites (2026) – Tools to help apps avoid censorship and protect user privacy.
Deep Dive
1. EVM-Compatible Workchains (2026)
What it is: TON plans to add workchains compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). This means developers can easily bring apps built for Ethereum over to TON with little effort. The goal is to attract Ethereum developers and improve how different blockchains work together.
Why it matters: This could make TON more useful and increase the amount of activity and money flowing through its network. However, delays or competition from other blockchains like Polygon might slow down its impact.
2. TON Storage Mainnet Launch (Q1 2026)
What it is: TON Storage is a decentralized way to store and share files, similar to IPFS. It will connect with Telegram, allowing users to securely save data and earn TON by sharing storage space (TON Primer).
Why it matters: With Telegram’s over 900 million users, this could lead to widespread use of TON Storage. Challenges include handling large amounts of data and competing with traditional cloud services like Google Drive or Dropbox.
3. DeFi Liquidity Program (Q4 2025)
What it is: TON is offering 5 million TON tokens as rewards to people who provide liquidity for USDT-TON trading pairs on platforms like STON.fi and DeDust. This follows a partnership with Curve Finance to improve stablecoin trading with less price slippage (KoinSaati).
Why it matters: This program encourages more trading and use of stablecoins on TON, which can help grow its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Success depends on keeping users engaged and managing risks like temporary losses from price changes.
4. TON Proxy & TON Sites (2026)
What it is: TON Proxy is a decentralized VPN service, and TON Sites offers web hosting that can’t be easily censored. These tools aim to protect user privacy and keep apps online even if governments or others try to block them.
Why it matters: These features could make TON a go-to platform for apps that need to resist censorship. However, their success depends on how regulators respond and whether developers choose to build on TON.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s roadmap focuses on making its network more compatible with other blockchains, building key infrastructure like decentralized storage, and growing its DeFi ecosystem—all while leveraging Telegram’s huge user base. While these developments could increase TON’s usefulness and adoption, challenges like technical execution and regulatory issues will play a big role in its future success. How TON manages innovation alongside these pressures will be important to watch.
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin’s latest updates focus on making transactions faster, improving decentralized finance (DeFi) tools, and growing its overall ecosystem.
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Transfer speeds for TON-based tokens tripled.
- AWS Blockchain Integration (September 10, 2025) – TON blockchain data now available through Amazon Web Services (AWS) Public Blockchain Program.
- Stable Swap Launch (September 4, 2025) – Partnership with Curve Finance reduces costs when swapping stablecoins.
- DeFi Liquidity Incentives (September 4, 2025) – 5 million TON tokens offered as rewards to liquidity providers in the USDT-TON pool.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)
What happened: Toncoin improved the way its tokens (called Jettons) are transferred, making transactions about three times faster. This was done by processing multiple transactions at once and simplifying contract checks. Transfer times dropped from around 2.1 seconds to just 0.7 seconds on average.
Why it matters: Faster transactions make using Toncoin smoother, especially for DeFi activities like swapping tokens or buying NFTs. This can attract more developers and users to the platform. (Source)
2. AWS Blockchain Integration (September 10, 2025)
What happened: Toncoin’s blockchain data is now accessible through AWS’s Public Blockchain Program. This means businesses and developers can analyze TON’s transaction history and blockchain data using Amazon’s tools.
Why it matters: While this doesn’t directly increase Toncoin’s user base, it shows that Toncoin’s technology is mature enough for enterprise-level use. It could lead to more business applications in the future. (Source)
3. Stable Swap Launch (September 4, 2025)
What happened: Toncoin partnered with Curve Finance to launch a “Stable Swap” pool, allowing users to swap stablecoins like USDT and TON with very low fees (0.01%) and minimal price impact (slippage). The pool quickly attracted $47 million in total value locked (TVL) within two days.
Why it matters: This makes trading stablecoins on Toncoin cheaper and more efficient, helping Toncoin compete with other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana in the DeFi space. (Source)
4. DeFi Liquidity Incentives (September 4, 2025)
What happened: Toncoin allocated 5 million TON tokens (worth about $10.65 million) as rewards to encourage users to provide liquidity in the USDT-TON pool on platforms like STON.fi and DeDust. Participants can earn up to 28% annual returns by staking their tokens. The program runs through December 2025 with rewards released quarterly.
Why it matters: Offering rewards helps attract liquidity quickly, which is important for a healthy trading environment. However, long-term success depends on users continuing to provide liquidity even after rewards end. (Source)
Conclusion
Toncoin is making significant technical improvements to boost speed, integrate with major cloud services, and deepen its DeFi offerings. With Telegram’s massive user base of over 1 billion people, these upgrades could help Toncoin grow steadily. However, the broader crypto market’s cautious mood means sustained adoption will require ongoing innovation and community support.