Why did the price of ZEC fall?

Zcash (ZEC) dropped 3.3% to $415.84 in the last 24 hours, underperforming Bitcoin (-1.38%) and Ethereum (-2%). Three main reasons behind this move:

1. Profit-taking after SEC clarity – Investors sold after the SEC ended its investigation, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction.
2. Technical challenges – The price hit resistance at $440 and fell below important moving averages.
3. Shift in privacy coin interest – Monero (+60% weekly) and Dash (+114%) attracted investors away from ZEC.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Selling After Regulatory News (Negative Impact)

Summary: Zcash initially jumped 5% to $438 on January 14 when the SEC closed its 2.5-year investigation. However, the gains didn’t last as traders took profits. While the SEC’s decision removed uncertainty, it didn’t provide new reasons for the price to keep rising.

What this means: The market had already factored in a positive outcome during ZEC’s strong 85% rally from November 2025 lows. Without fresh developments like new ETF filings, traders moved their money into other privacy coins with higher growth potential, such as Monero.

What to watch: The Zcash Foundation’s upcoming moves—like new partnerships or upgrades—could spark renewed interest.

2. Technical Weakness (Bearish Signals)

Summary: ZEC is facing multiple technical hurdles:

• Price resistance: Stuck below $440, which is a key retracement level from the recent decline.
• Indicators: A “death cross” occurred (the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day), and the MACD indicator shows bearish momentum.
• Support level: $364, the low point from January 9, is the next key support.

What this means: The failure to break above $440 suggests selling pressure. Algorithmic traders are likely betting on further declines. Until ZEC moves back above $440, the technical outlook remains negative.

3. Competition Among Privacy Coins (Mixed Impact)

Summary: Monero surged 60% in one week to a new all-time high of $712, and Dash rose 114%. This pulled speculative investment away from ZEC. Unlike Zcash, which offers optional privacy features, Monero enforces privacy by default—a significant advantage as regulators focus on coins with opt-in privacy.

What this means: The correlation between ZEC and Monero over 30 days dropped from 0.89 in December to 0.52, indicating they are moving more independently. Investors see Monero as a stronger privacy-focused option despite Zcash’s recent regulatory win.

Conclusion

Zcash’s recent price drop reflects profit-taking after a key regulatory milestone, technical challenges, and a shift in investor interest toward Monero. Although the SEC’s decision improves ZEC’s regulatory standing, Zcash needs faster adoption of its privacy features (currently about 30% of its supply) to stand out from competitors.

Key levels to watch: Holding $400 support is crucial. Falling below that could lead to a retest of $364, while breaking back above $440 might push the price toward $480. Keep an eye on updates from developers following the ECC spinout, as execution risks remain.

What could affect the price of ZEC?

Zcash’s future price depends on clearer regulations, technology improvements, and market activity.

1. Regulatory Relief (Positive) – The SEC ended its investigation, removing a big uncertainty.
2. Sapling Upgrade (Mixed) – Better privacy features, but slow growth in private transactions.
3. Whale Activity (Volatile) – Large holders are buying more, showing confidence but also adding price swings.

In-Depth Look

1. Regulatory Progress (Positive Impact)

Overview: On January 15, 2026, the SEC closed its 2.5-year investigation into Zcash without taking action. This fits with a broader U.S. effort to clarify crypto rules, like the Clarity Act, which defines roles for regulators such as the SEC and CFTC.

What this means: Less legal uncertainty could bring in big investors. For example, Grayscale’s ZEC Trust currently holds $16.8 million worth of Zcash. After the SEC news, ZEC’s price rose about 12%. However, global rules against money laundering (AML) still pose risks, especially in Europe where the MiCA regulation might force exchanges to remove privacy coins like Zcash.

2. Sapling & Ecosystem Upgrades (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Sapling upgrade in October 2026 cuts the cost of private (shielded) transactions by 96%, making it easier to use on mobile wallets. The Zcash Foundation also launched cashZ, a new wallet developed by former ECC team members, to improve user experience.

What this means: These improvements could encourage more people to use private transactions, which currently make up about 25% of all ZEC. However, growth is slow, increasing only 5% month-over-month. The success of this upgrade depends on apps like Zashi adopting Sapling’s features.

3. Whale Activity & Liquidity (Volatile Impact)

Overview: On December 29, 2025, large holders moved 7,714 ZEC (about $4.1 million) off the Kraken exchange. This is part of a larger trend, with roughly $30 million worth of ZEC leaving exchanges in the last quarter of 2025. Open interest in ZEC futures reached $734 million, up 27.6% week-over-week, indicating more leveraged trading.

What this means: While big buyers reduce selling pressure, they also increase price volatility. For example, a $7.9 million leveraged long position on Hyperliquid could cause sharp price moves if the $450 resistance level is broken.

Conclusion

Zcash’s chance to reach $500 or more depends on turning regulatory wins into wider use of private transactions while handling price swings caused by large holders. Keep an eye on the Sapling adoption rate and rumors about a Coinbase listing—breaking above $450 could speed up gains, but failure might push the price down to the $364 support level.

Will Zcash’s focus on privacy overcome regulatory concerns in 2026?

What are people saying about ZEC?

Zcash’s social buzz swings between excitement about privacy and concerns over technical challenges. Here’s what’s trending:

1. SEC closes Zcash probe – No enforcement action taken, price jumps 5% to $438 (Jan 15, 2026).
2. Key price battle – Buyers aim for a $450 breakout; sellers warn of a drop to $300 if $404 support fails.
3. Developer shakeup – Core team left on Jan 8, causing a 20% price drop, now stabilizing.
4. Privacy features gain traction – Shielded transactions hit record levels; competition with Monero (XMR) heats up.

Deep Dive

1. @ZcashNigeria: Privacy as Digital Freedom Bullish

“Privacy isn’t about hiding – it’s about owning your financial identity. Zcash’s shielded pool now holds 30% of all coins, up from 10% in 2024.”
– @ZcashNigeria (1.3K followers · 5.6K impressions · Oct 23, 2025)
View original post
What this means: More people are using Zcash’s privacy features, which could increase demand as concerns about financial surveillance grow.

2. @0xWhale: Double-Top Pattern Alert Bearish

“Double-top pattern at $775 and $555, with a neckline at $301. Price targets between $164 and $117. The 200-day moving average at $289 is a key level.”
– @0xWhale (4.4K followers · 17K impressions · Jan 10, 2026)
View original post
What this means: Technical analysis suggests a risk of significant price drops if Zcash falls below $300 support, though overly negative sentiment could reverse this trend.

3. @earlyadopterz: Liquidation Catalyst Watch Mixed

“If ZEC breaks above $454, expect a bull run. If it falls below $438, price may drop to $400-$420. Market makers seem to be influencing both sides.”
– @earlyadopterz (7.2K followers · 14K impressions · Jan 8, 2026)
View original post
What this means: There’s a lot of leveraged trading near $450, with $54 million in short positions versus $24 million in longs, which could cause sharp price swings.

4. @CoinDesk: Regulatory Green Light Bullish

The SEC ended its two-year investigation into Zcash on Jan 15, 2026, stating “no action needed,” removing regulatory uncertainty.
View article
What this means: This clears the way for institutional investors to consider Zcash. After the news, ZEC outperformed competitors like Monero (XMR) and DASH, rising 10% compared to XMR’s 60%.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for Zcash is cautiously optimistic following the SEC’s decision, but technical challenges and recent team changes keep some investors wary. Traders are watching the $420-$450 range closely for signs of a breakout. Meanwhile, developers are working to rebuild confidence after the January departures. Keep an eye on the ratio of shielded (private) to transparent transactions—if it climbs above 35% (currently 30%), it could signal growing demand for privacy features. With Monero gaining ground, Zcash will need to maintain strong real-world use to justify its $6.8 billion market value.

What is the latest news about ZEC?

Zcash (ZEC) jumps above $430 after the SEC ends its investigation, but competition among privacy-focused cryptocurrencies is heating up. Here’s the latest:

1. SEC Ends Zcash Probe (January 15, 2026) – After a two-year review, no enforcement action was taken, pushing ZEC’s price up 5%.
2. Regulatory Environment Shifts (January 15, 2026) – The SEC’s decision reflects a softer crypto stance similar to policies from the Trump administration.
3. Technical Signs of Recovery (January 15, 2026) – Analysts are watching a potential bullish pattern, but key resistance at $450 remains a challenge.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Ends Zcash Probe (January 15, 2026)

What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) informed the Zcash Foundation that it will not take enforcement action after investigating Zcash’s privacy features and how it was initially funded. The probe looked closely at shielded transactions (which hide sender and receiver details) but found no legal violations.

Why it matters:
This is good news for Zcash because it removes a major regulatory concern that had been hanging over the project since August 2023. The SEC’s decision supports Zcash’s approach of offering optional privacy, unlike some coins like Monero that have privacy enabled by default. This could reduce fears that exchanges will delist ZEC. However, privacy coins still face ongoing scrutiny related to anti-money laundering (AML) rules, which is a risk for the entire sector.
(CoinMarketCap)

2. Regulatory Environment Shifts (January 15, 2026)

What happened:
The SEC’s decision on Zcash fits into a broader trend of easing crypto enforcement seen during the Trump administration, including dropped cases against other crypto projects like Uniswap and Ripple. At the same time, the U.S. Senate delayed action on the Clarity Act after Coinbase pulled its support, showing that crypto regulation remains uncertain.

Why it matters:
This mixed regulatory environment means less pressure from the SEC could encourage institutional investors to explore Zcash’s privacy technology. However, delays in legislation create ongoing risks for the crypto market. Zcash’s balance between privacy and transparency might give it an advantage over coins like Monero in markets with stricter regulations.
(Decrypt)

3. Technical Signs of Recovery (January 15, 2026)

What happened:
ZEC’s price bounced back 7% during the day, reaching $416 after testing support at $364. Analysts see a bullish pennant pattern forming just below the $450 resistance level, which is also near the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.8 indicates neutral momentum.

Why it matters:
If ZEC can break and hold above $450, it could aim for the next resistance around $481, based on Fibonacci retracement levels. If it fails, the price might drop back to test $364 support. Recent data shows $1.88 million in short position liquidations, suggesting potential price swings ahead. The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $455 is another key resistance level to watch.

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Conclusion

Zcash’s regulatory win and technical rebound offer cautious optimism for its future. However, competition is fierce—Monero recently surged to $725, highlighting the battle among privacy coins. The question remains: will Zcash’s privacy model, which is more appealing to institutions, outweigh concerns about recent team departures in January?

What is expected in the development of ZEC?

Zcash is making important progress with two key updates:

1. cashZ Wallet Launch (Late January 2026) – A new privacy-focused wallet created by former Electric Coin Company (ECC) developers, built on the Zashi platform.
2. Ztarknet Devnet Release (Q1 2026) – A Layer-2 solution that will allow smart contracts on Zcash, enhancing its capabilities.

1. cashZ Wallet Launch (Late January 2026)

Overview: After a disagreement within Zcash’s leadership, the main development team left ECC in early January 2026 and started a new company. They are now launching cashZ, a wallet based on Zashi’s technology, designed to improve privacy and make it easier to use. The wallet is currently in a waitlist phase and is expected to be available to the public by late January 2026. Existing Zashi users will be able to switch over smoothly (Bitcoinist).
What this means: This is a positive sign for Zcash (ZEC) because it shows a strong focus on making private transactions more accessible, which could lead to more people using Zcash. However, in the short term, there may be some uncertainty due to the leadership changes and the need to regain user trust after the split from ECC.

2. Ztarknet Devnet (Q1 2026)

Overview: Ztarknet is inspired by Starknet and is a Layer-2 technology that uses Circle-STARK proofs to enable private smart contracts on Zcash without changing its main blockchain. It’s currently being tested, with a developer network (devnet) launch planned for the first quarter of 2026. This will let developers create decentralized apps (dApps) like decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) while keeping Zcash’s privacy features intact (Eli5DeFi).
What this means: This development is good news for ZEC because it broadens what Zcash can do, moving beyond just payments to include programmable privacy features. However, there are risks such as potential delays and competition from other Layer-2 solutions like Starknet.

Conclusion

The upcoming launch of cashZ and progress with Ztarknet show that Zcash is focusing on making privacy easier to use and growing its ecosystem. Still, how quickly these projects roll out and how regulators respond will be important to watch. A key question remains: will private (shielded) transactions make up more than half of all Zcash by 2027?

What updates are there in the ZEC code base?

Zcash’s software received important updates in late 2025 and early 2026, focusing on improving the network and moving to newer technology.

1. NU6.1 Testnet Activation (April 2025) – Finalized test network rules and fixed bugs affecting wallet balances.
2. Deprecation Roadmap (April 2025) – Announced plans to replace the old zcashd software with newer tools called zebrad and Zallet by the end of 2025.
3. Orchard Protocol Upgrade (October 2025) – Lowered fees for private transactions by 30%.

Deep Dive

1. NU6.1 Testnet Activation (April 17, 2025)

Overview: This update finalized the rules for Network Upgrade 6.1 on the test network and fixed a bug that caused incorrect balance displays in wallets using both transparent and shielded addresses.
What this means: This update doesn’t directly affect the value of Zcash (ZEC), but it improves wallet accuracy and reliability for users. (Source)

2. Deprecation Roadmap (April 17, 2025)

Overview: Version 6.2.0 announced that the old zcashd software will be phased out and replaced by zebrad (for running nodes) and Zallet (for wallets), both written in the Rust programming language. Support for Ubuntu 20.04 was also dropped, and some older commands were removed.
What this means: This is a neutral update for ZEC’s price but important for network operators, who must switch to the new software by 2025 to keep their nodes running smoothly. (Source)

3. Orchard Protocol Upgrade (October 2025)

Overview: This upgrade improved the technology behind Zcash’s shielded transactions, reducing the fees users pay by about 30%. This makes private transactions more affordable and encourages more people to use them.
What this means: This is positive for ZEC because lower fees can lead to more users choosing private transactions, which strengthens the network’s privacy features and usefulness. (Source)

Conclusion

Zcash’s updates in 2025 and 2026 focused on making the network more efficient and modern by lowering fees and moving to new software. However, changes in the development team create some uncertainty. It will be interesting to see how the new cashZ team works to increase the use of shielded transactions in 2026.