Why did the price of TRX fall?

TRON (TRX) dropped 1% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell nearly 3%. This decline matches bearish technical signals and a general cautious mood in the crypto sector, even though TRON’s ecosystem is seeing some positive developments.

1. Market Pullback – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 33, indicating fear and prompting selloffs.
2. Technical Resistance – TRX hit resistance at the $0.337 Fibonacci level, with negative momentum shown by the MACD indicator.
3. Competition Heat – Solana’s new decentralized exchange (DEX), Percolator, is drawing attention away from SunPerp’s expansion in China.

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Caution Limits Gains

The total cryptocurrency market value dropped by about 3% in the past day (CoinMarketCap), with Bitcoin down 1.25% and Ethereum down 0.7%, pulling many altcoins lower. TRX’s 1% decline was a bit better than average but still reflects a cautious mood among investors. The Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how altcoins perform compared to Bitcoin, fell sharply to 27, signaling less enthusiasm for altcoins right now.

What this means: TRX’s relative stability may come from its strong use in USDT trading pairs, but broader factors like large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs ($13.4 billion in a week) and rising U.S. Treasury yields are keeping upward momentum in check.

2. Technical Signals Point to Selling Pressure

TRX fell below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.331 and faced resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.337. The MACD histogram, a tool that measures momentum, turned negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.85, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum.

What this means: Traders likely sold after TRX failed to break above key resistance levels. Support is now expected between $0.313 and $0.306. Meanwhile, trading volume dropped 11% to $600 million, suggesting weak buying interest to push prices back up.

3. SunPerp’s Growth Faces Competition from Solana

Justin Sun’s SunPerp platform is expanding in China with a $100 million fund to help traders recover losses and offering 55% fee discounts (Yahoo Finance). However, Solana’s new DEX, Percolator, is attracting attention as a strong competitor.

What this means: While SunPerp’s growth could increase TRON’s long-term utility, Solana’s innovative technology is currently drawing some trader interest away. This shows that TRX’s price is influenced not just by its own ecosystem but also by broader market trends.

Conclusion

TRX’s recent dip is more about overall market caution and profit-taking than any specific problems with the project. The $0.31 to $0.30 price range will be important to watch as it tests buyer support. Meanwhile, SunPerp’s expansion and TRON’s strong role in USDT trading provide a solid foundation. Key point to watch: Can TRX stay above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.299 as stablecoin inflows increase?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}

What could affect the price of TRX?

TRON’s price outlook depends on stablecoin use, technical chart patterns, and regulatory developments.

1. Stablecoin Growth (Positive) – TRON handles 60% of USDT transactions, and the addition of PYUSD increases its usefulness.
2. Technical Chart Signals (Mixed) – TRON is trading in a pattern near $0.33; a clear move above $0.35 could lead to a 40% price increase.
3. Regulatory Challenges (Negative) – The SEC’s review of a TRX-based ETF and new EU privacy laws could create obstacles.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Stablecoin Use & Partnerships (Positive Impact)

Overview:
TRON processes about 60% of all USDT stablecoin transactions, with over $81 billion USDT on its network (Tron Network). Recently, TRON integrated PYUSD through LayerZero technology, expanding its stablecoin ecosystem and improving cross-chain liquidity. The network also supports over $5.5 billion in decentralized finance (DeFi) assets after upgrading to Chainlink oracles (CryptoSlate).

What this means:
High stablecoin activity increases demand for TRX tokens, which are used to pay transaction fees and for staking. As TRON becomes more widely used for real-world financial applications, like storing U.S. GDP data, it could strengthen its price stability and growth potential.

2. Technical Chart Patterns & Large Investor Activity (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
TRX is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern between $0.31 (support) and $0.33 (resistance). A breakout above $0.35 could push the price toward $0.44 (Yahoo Finance). However, momentum indicators like RSI (51) and MACD are neutral. Meanwhile, large investor (whale) transactions surged by 973% in June 2025 (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
Traders are waiting for a clear breakout before making bullish moves. The recent large purchases of TRX (over $15 million in August 2025) show confidence, but if the price falls below $0.31, it could drop further to $0.28.

3. Regulatory Review & ETF Possibilities (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing a proposal for a staked TRX exchange-traded fund (ETF) (CoinSpeaker). At the same time, the European Union’s “Chat Control” law may affect privacy features on the network. TRON also faces ongoing risks from past SEC lawsuits.

What this means:
If the ETF is approved, it could bring more institutional investors to TRON. However, delays or rejection might cause price drops. Additionally, stricter EU regulations could slow adoption if TRON’s anti-crime measures, like freezing $250 million in assets, don’t meet regulatory standards.

Conclusion

TRON’s price outlook balances positive network growth with regulatory uncertainties. A move above $0.35 would confirm technical strength, while stablecoin adoption and ETF progress offer long-term potential. Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF decision expected by late 2025—will TRX follow Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rallies or face regulatory setbacks?

What are people saying about TRX?

The TRON community is divided between hopeful optimism and cautious skepticism. Here’s the latest:

1. A Nasdaq listing and a $1 billion token buyback are driving positive expectations.
2. Price targets between $0.30 and $0.45 are common in technical discussions.
3. There are warnings about potential price traps around the $0.30 level.

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: TRON Inc. Announces $1B Buyback Plan

"TRON Inc. plans to buy back 3.1 billion TRX tokens, with the price holding steady around $0.33."
– @johnmorganFL (1.2M followers · 12.4K impressions · July 31, 2025, 04:23 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for TRX. When a company buys back its own tokens, it reduces the number available on the market. If demand stays strong, this scarcity can help push the price higher.

2. @BlockNews: Technical Pattern Points to $0.45 Target

"TRON is forming a classic 'cup' pattern, aiming for a new high near $0.45."
– @BlockNews (89K followers · 4.7K impressions · August 9, 2025, 01:27 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is another positive indicator. The cup-and-handle pattern is a well-known chart formation that often signals a price increase. The $0.30–$0.31 price range is seen as a launch point for this upward move.

3. @CoinGlass: $0.30 Level Could Be a Price Trap

"The $0.30 price zone is crowded with sell orders, creating liquidity traps according to CoinGlass data."
– @CoinGlass (320K followers · 18K impressions · July 6, 2025, 10:32 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign. A liquidity trap happens when many sell orders cluster at a certain price, which can cause the price to drop sharply if buyers can’t push through. This makes $0.30 a risky level for TRX.

Conclusion

Opinions on TRON are mixed. On one hand, the $1 billion buyback and positive chart patterns suggest the price could rise. On the other hand, the $0.30–$0.31 range is a critical point where selling pressure might cause setbacks. Watch for TRX to stay above $0.30 to confirm a bullish trend. If it falls below, the bearish warnings about liquidity traps could come true.

What is the latest news about TRX?

TRON is showing strong signs of growth and expanding its presence in decentralized finance (DeFi). Here are the key updates:

1. TRX Approaching Record High (October 20, 2025) – A technical pattern suggests TRX could rise to $0.44 if it breaks through resistance.
2. Thorchain Integration Activated (October 2, 2025) – TRON now supports seamless swaps with Bitcoin and Ethereum, boosting its DeFi capabilities.
3. Network Fees Cut by 60% (September 17, 2025) – Lower transaction costs have increased daily active users to over 2.5 million.

In-Depth Look

1. TRX Approaching Record High (October 20, 2025)

Summary
TRX is currently trading between $0.31 and $0.32, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern, combined with a technical indicator called RSI showing less selling pressure, points to a potential price increase. If TRX closes above $0.35, it could jump 25% to reach $0.44, beating its previous high of $0.43 this year.

What This Means
This pattern indicates that long-term investors might be accumulating TRX. A breakout above resistance would confirm upward momentum. However, if the price falls below $0.31, it could drop to $0.28. Traders are closely watching the $0.33 to $0.34 range for clues on the next move.
(Yahoo Finance)

2. Thorchain Integration Activated (October 2, 2025)

Summary
TRON has connected with Thorchain, allowing users to swap TRX with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) directly, without relying on centralized services. This upgrade aims to make TRON a key player in cross-chain liquidity, supporting its already large daily stablecoin trading volume of $22 billion.

What This Means
This new feature strengthens TRON’s DeFi network and could attract users from other blockchain platforms. Combined with TRON’s low average transaction fee of $0.63, it may increase the total value locked (TVL) and decentralized exchange (DEX) activity on the network.
(Fameex)

3. Network Fees Cut by 60% (September 17, 2025)

Summary
A recent governance decision lowered TRON’s energy costs from 210 to 100 sun (a smaller unit of TRX), reducing fees for smart contract transactions. Additionally, JustLend DAO reduced energy rental rates from 15% to 8%, making DeFi operations more affordable.

What This Means
These fee reductions have already increased daily active users to 2.5 million, a 40% rise since August. Lower costs make it easier for everyday users, especially in developing markets where small transactions are common, to participate in TRON’s ecosystem.
(CoinDesk)

Conclusion

TRON is combining positive technical signals with important upgrades like cross-chain swaps and lower fees. With its strong position in stablecoins and growing user base, TRX could maintain its upward momentum despite overall market caution (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 33). Keep an eye on the $0.35 resistance level to see if TRON enters a new bullish phase.

What is expected in the development of TRX?

TRON’s upcoming plans focus on growing its stablecoin offerings, expanding connections with other blockchains, and encouraging community participation.

1. USDD 2.0 Phase IX Mining (September 13, 2025) – Offering flexible interest rates to attract more liquidity.
2. USD1 Stablecoin Expansion (Q4 2025) – Increasing supply to over $50 million, targeting emerging markets.
3. Cross-Chain Integration with deBridge (September 2025) – Connecting TRON with 25+ other blockchains for easier asset transfers.
4. Eco Star Incentive Program Upgrade (September 2025) – Rewarding creators who produce educational and community content.

Detailed Overview

1. USDD 2.0 Phase IX Mining (September 13, 2025)

What’s happening:
Starting September 13, 2025, TRON will offer tiered annual percentage yields (APY) to encourage users to provide liquidity to USDD 2.0, TRON’s decentralized stablecoin. This helps keep the stablecoin’s value steady and supports decentralized finance (DeFi) activities on TRON.

Why it matters:
This move is positive for TRON’s native token, TRX, as it increases its use and demand within the TRON ecosystem. However, if too many stablecoins are issued without enough demand, it could affect USDD’s price stability.

2. USD1 Stablecoin Expansion (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
USD1, a stablecoin managed by World Liberty Financial and compliant with regulations, plans to increase its supply to over $50 million by the end of 2025. TRON currently handles about 60% of global stablecoin liquidity, with over $600 billion moving through its network monthly (source).

Why it matters:
Growing USD1’s supply will strengthen TRON’s position in stablecoin transactions, especially in emerging markets. Still, competition from other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana remains a challenge.

3. Cross-Chain Integration with deBridge (September 2025)

What’s happening:
TRON will integrate with deBridge, a platform that allows smooth transfers of assets between TRON, Solana, Ethereum, and 23 other blockchains. This makes moving stablecoins and other assets easier across different networks.

Why it matters:
Better cross-chain connections can increase transaction volume and user activity. However, technical challenges during the integration could cause short-term issues.

4. Eco Star Incentive Program Upgrade (September 2025)

What’s happening:
TRON DAO is updating its Eco Star program to reward community members who create educational materials, memes, and tutorials. This aims to encourage more people to learn about and use TRON.

Why it matters:
This program could boost community engagement and help TRON grow organically. Its success depends on ongoing participation from creators and users.

Conclusion

TRON’s roadmap focuses on strengthening its stablecoin leadership, improving connections with other blockchains, and supporting community growth. With backing from its Nasdaq-listed company, Tron Inc., and progress on regulatory fronts, TRON aims to balance innovation and compliance as it moves into 2026.

What updates are there in the TRX code base?

In 2025, TRON’s software updates focused on making the network work better with other blockchains, improving tools for developers, and cutting costs for users.

1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Update (June 2025) – Added support for Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade and made the network’s security stronger.
2. Hardhat-TRON Plugin Release (September 2025) – Made it easier for Ethereum developers to build on TRON using familiar tools.
3. 60% Energy Fee Cut (August 2025) – The community voted to lower transaction fees significantly.

Deep Dive

1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Update (June 2025)

What happened: TRON upgraded its main network to support Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade (known as EIP-4844) and improved how it verifies transactions to boost security and allow smoother interaction between different blockchains.

Why it matters: This update is positive for TRON (TRX) because it helps the network connect better with Ethereum, the largest smart contract platform. This could attract developers who want to build apps that work across multiple blockchains. Stronger security also means the network is more reliable and safer from attacks.
(Source)

2. Hardhat-TRON Plugin Release (September 2025)

What happened: LayerZero Labs introduced a plugin that lets developers who use Ethereum’s popular Hardhat tool easily create and deploy decentralized apps (dApps) on TRON without changing their usual workflow.

Why it matters: This is neutral for TRX’s price but important for growth. It lowers the barrier for Ethereum developers to start building on TRON, which could lead to more apps and users on the network over time.
(Source)

3. 60% Energy Fee Cut (August 2025)

What happened: TRON’s community voted to reduce the energy fees—costs paid to run smart contracts—by 60%.

Why it matters: Lower fees make it cheaper to use TRON for activities like decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoin transactions, which are key uses of the network. This encourages more on-chain activity, which is good for TRX’s adoption and value.
(Source)

Conclusion

TRON’s 2025 updates focus on making the network more compatible with other blockchains, easier for developers to use, and more affordable for users. These improvements help TRON maintain its position as a top platform for stablecoins and DeFi. The big question is how these changes will affect TRON’s competition with Ethereum and Solana when it comes to attracting developers and projects.