Why did the price of TRX fall?

TRON (TRX) dropped 5.10% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 0.64%. This decline is linked to weak technical signals, lower network activity, and a shift in investor interest away from altcoins.

1. Technical Breakdown – Oversold indicators and broken support levels led to selling pressure.
2. Network Activity Decline – A sharp fall in transactions raises questions about TRON’s long-term use.
3. Market Sentiment Shift – Investors are moving funds to Bitcoin during the current "Bitcoin Season."

Deep Dive

1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview: TRON’s price fell below an important support level at $0.306 and is now trading near $0.297. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool that measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, is at 26.71, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD, another technical indicator, shows downward momentum.

What this means: The price drop suggests weak demand and selling triggered by automated trading systems. While an oversold RSI can sometimes signal a price rebound, without positive news or events, the decline may continue.

Key watch: If TRX can close above $0.306, it may stabilize. If not, it could test the next support level around $0.285, which was a low point in August.

2. Network Activity Slump (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The number of daily TRON transactions fell by 60% in June, dropping from 9 million to 3.5 million, according to CryptoQuant. Some of this decline may be due to reduced bot activity, but overall lower usage affects TRON’s fee income and staking rewards.

What this means: Less activity on the TRON network weakens its value proposition. Although fees were cut by 60% in August to encourage more use, transaction numbers have yet to recover.

Key watch: A return to over 5 million daily transactions would signal healthier network usage.

3. Altcoin Sentiment Drain (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 34, indicating “Fear,” and the Altcoin Season Index shows we are in “Bitcoin Season” with a score of 22 out of 100.

What this means: Investors are currently favoring Bitcoin over altcoins like TRON. TRX’s price tends to move somewhat in line with Bitcoin (30-day correlation of +0.65), but it doesn’t gain as much when the market rises and tends to fall more during downturns.

Conclusion

TRON’s recent price drop is driven by weak technical signals, declining network activity, and a market preference for Bitcoin. While oversold conditions might lead to short-term price rebounds, a lasting recovery depends on improved network usage or a broader rally in altcoins.

Key watch: Will TRX hold the $0.285 support level, or will Bitcoin’s dominance push prices lower? Keep an eye on transaction volumes and Bitcoin’s price for clues on the next move.

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What could affect the price of TRX?

TRON’s price is caught between growing real-world use and ongoing regulatory challenges.

1. Stablecoin Strength – TRON hosts $82 billion worth of USDT stablecoins, boosting demand for TRX.
2. Wall Street Presence – TRON’s Nasdaq listing increases institutional interest but brings market risks.
3. Regulatory Challenges – SEC investigations continue despite TRON’s efforts to comply.

In-Depth Look

1. Growth in Stablecoin Use (Positive for TRX)

TRON currently holds over $82 billion in USDT stablecoins, which is more than half of all USDT worldwide. It processes about $30 billion in stablecoin transactions daily. New stablecoins pegged to the US dollar and partnerships with other blockchains like NEAR and deBridge are expanding TRON’s role as a key liquidity platform.

Why it matters: More stablecoin activity means more demand for TRX tokens, which are used to pay transaction fees and for staking (locking up tokens to support the network). In the third quarter of 2025, TRX’s deflation rate (how much supply is reduced) reached 1.29% thanks to token burn mechanisms that remove tokens from circulation (CoinDesk).

2. Institutional Adoption and Nasdaq Listing (Mixed Effects)

TRON Inc., listed on Nasdaq under the ticker TRON, holds 365 million TRX tokens (worth about $115 million) as reserves after a $210 million reverse merger. However, the stock price dropped 85% after going public, reflecting market volatility.

Why it matters: Being listed on Nasdaq raises TRON’s profile and could attract investment from ETFs and institutional funds. At the same time, stock market ups and downs could affect investor confidence. Large investors, or “whales,” bought 15 million TRX in August 2025, signaling confidence in TRON’s long-term potential (Cointelegraph).

3. Regulatory and Competitive Pressures (Challenges Ahead)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to investigate TRON’s founder, Justin Sun, and there’s a risk that Tether (USDT) could move away from TRON’s blockchain to Bitfinex’s Plasma chain. Meanwhile, competitors like Ethereum and Solana are gaining ground in the stablecoin market.

Why it matters: Losing even 20% of USDT volume could wipe out TRX’s gains in 2025. TRON recently cut network fees by 60% to keep users engaged, but this could lead to inflation if fewer tokens are burned (Yahoo Finance).

Conclusion

TRX’s price will depend on its ability to maintain leadership in stablecoins while managing Wall Street volatility and regulatory risks. Currently, TRX is trading between $0.27 and $0.32. A move above $0.35 could signal a new upward trend.

Key question: Can TRON’s 9 million daily transactions compete with Ethereum’s growing dominance fueled by ETFs in institutional portfolios?

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What are people saying about TRX?

The TRON (TRX) community is actively discussing the $0.30 price level, where big investors (whales) are making moves. There’s a mix of optimism and caution:

1. Whales are focusing on the $0.30 mark despite risks of sudden price drops.
2. A $1 billion buyback plan is encouraging more buying interest.
3. Technical indicators show conflicting signals, with some patterns suggesting growth and others warning of overbought conditions.

Deep Dive

1. @BlockNews: Bulls Target $0.45, Strong Support at $0.30–$0.31 bullish

“TRON is holding steady at $0.33... a solid support zone between $0.30 and $0.31 could lead to a price bounce.”
– BlockNews (1.2M followers · 12K impressions · 2025-08-09 13:27 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for TRX. The repeated testing of the $0.30–$0.31 support level suggests that large investors are stepping in to buy here, creating a foundation for the price to potentially rise toward $0.45.

2. @CryptoQuant: $0.30 Area Filled with Liquidation Triggers bearish

“The $0.30 level is loaded with stop-loss orders that could trigger mass sell-offs... CoinGlass data highlights these clustered liquidation points.”
– CryptoQuant (890K followers · 8.3K impressions · 2025-07-06 10:32 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for TRX. If the price moves just above $0.30, it could trigger a wave of automatic sell orders, causing sharp and unpredictable price swings as leveraged traders exit their positions.

3. @JustinSun: $1B Buyback Plan and NASDAQ Listing Speculation mixed

“TRON Inc. is planning a $1 billion TRX buyback... shares of SRM Entertainment jumped nearly 30% after their merger.”
– Justin Sun (3.4M followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-07-16 12:37 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This news has both positive and cautious implications. Buybacks reduce the number of coins available, which can support the price. However, the merger with SRM Entertainment is under regulatory review, which could create uncertainty and affect market sentiment.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for TRX is optimistic but with some caution. Technical signals lean toward a price increase, but the $0.30 resistance level and potential risks from derivatives trading require careful monitoring. Keep an eye on the $0.295–$0.305 price range for signs of a breakout or breakdown. Also, note that TRX’s price movement is closely linked to Bitcoin, with a 30-day correlation of 0.78. If Bitcoin struggles, will whale support at $0.28 be strong enough to hold?

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What is the latest news about TRX?

TRON is making strides in growing its ecosystem and improving compliance. Here’s the latest:

1. Grayscale ETF Adds TRX (Oct 24, 2025) – TRX gets more attention from institutional investors through a new multi-crypto ETF.
2. JustLend Burns $59M Worth of JST (Oct 21, 2025) – Token buybacks are reducing supply, aiming to increase value.
3. Avail Nexus Enables Cross-Chain Use (Oct 21, 2025) – TRON apps can now operate across 10+ blockchains without needing bridges.
4. T3 FCU Freezes Over $250M in Illegal Funds (Sep 18, 2025) – Partnerships with Binance and TRM Labs strengthen TRON’s compliance and trust.

In-Depth Look

1. Grayscale ETF Adds TRX (October 24, 2025)

What happened:
Grayscale’s GDLC ETF, traded on the New York Stock Exchange, now includes TRX, making up 5.01% of the fund alongside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). This is the first time TRX is part of a U.S.-registered multi-crypto ETF. Around the same time, T. Rowe Price filed for an Active Crypto ETF that also plans to include TRX among 15 other assets.

Why it matters:
This is good news for TRX because ETFs make it easier for traditional investors to buy in. However, since TRX is a smaller part of the fund compared to BTC and ETH, its price might not see a big immediate boost. (Bitcoin.com)

2. JustLend Burns $59M Worth of JST (October 21, 2025)

What happened:
JustLend, TRON’s leading decentralized finance (DeFi) platform, burned 560 million JST tokens—about 5.66% of the total supply—using $17.7 million collected from fees. They plan to burn an additional $41 million worth of tokens in upcoming quarters. The total JST supply, which is fixed at 9.9 billion tokens, is now 20% lower than its highest point.

Why it matters:
Burning tokens reduces supply, which can increase value over time. This deflationary approach may tighten liquidity for JST and TRX in the long run. However, TRX itself is still inflationary, with its circulating supply growing slightly this year. Keep an eye on how these burns continue in the next quarter. (Cryptoslate)

3. Avail Nexus Enables Cross-Chain Use (October 21, 2025)

What happened:
TRON integrated Avail Nexus, a technology that allows decentralized apps (dApps) on TRON to work seamlessly across more than 10 different blockchains, including Solana and Ethereum, without relying on bridges. In the first 48 hours, over $120 million in assets—mostly USDT stablecoins—were moved across chains.

Why it matters:
This development doesn’t immediately affect TRX’s price but is a positive step for TRON’s ecosystem. It makes TRON more attractive to developers who want to build applications that work across multiple blockchains, especially in DeFi and real-world asset projects. (SunnicNFT24 on X)

Conclusion

TRON is making progress with new partnerships and technology that could boost its ecosystem, like ETF exposure and cross-chain capabilities. However, TRX faces challenges such as limited use in new products and ongoing inflation. Since stablecoins account for about 60% of TRON’s $6 billion total value locked (TVL), and regulatory scrutiny is increasing, the big question remains: Can TRX evolve beyond just being a stablecoin platform and become an asset that gains real value? Watch for upcoming token burns and enforcement actions by T3 FCU for clues on TRX’s future.

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What is expected in the development of TRX?

TRON’s roadmap highlights key goals like upgrading its infrastructure, expanding decentralized finance (DeFi), and increasing global adoption. Here are the main upcoming milestones:

1. Cross-Chain Expansion (Q4 2025) – Connecting with over 25 blockchains through deBridge for easier asset transfers.
2. USDD 2.0 Phase X Mining (Q4 2025) – Offering flexible rewards to encourage more liquidity.
3. Quarterly Fee Adjustments (Q4 2025) – Lowering energy costs to boost DeFi activity.
4. T3+ Program Expansion (2026) – Strengthening anti-fraud efforts in partnership with Binance.
5. RWA & AI Integration (2026) – Bringing real-world assets onto the blockchain and adding AI tools.

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview: TRON is teaming up with deBridge to allow smooth transfers of assets across more than 25 blockchains, including Solana. This makes it easier to move stablecoins like USDT and USDD between different networks. Earlier in August 2025, TRON cut energy fees by 60% to support this growth (TRON Blog).
What this means: This is positive for TRX because connecting multiple blockchains can increase transaction volume and strengthen TRON’s position as a hub for stablecoin transactions. However, it faces competition from Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions, which also aim to improve cross-chain activity.

2. USDD 2.0 Phase X Mining (Q4 2025)

Overview: The JustLend DAO is launching the 10th phase of USDD mining, offering tiered annual percentage yields (APYs) to attract more liquidity. TRON already handles over $600 billion in stablecoin transfers, with USDT making up 60% of that volume (Gate.io).
What this means: This development is somewhat positive. Increased USDD use could boost TRX’s utility, but since USDT currently dominates, TRON’s growth depends on how well USDD competes with other stablecoins like USD1.

3. Quarterly Fee Adjustments (Q4 2025)

Overview: TRON has a system where energy fees are adjusted every quarter based on network activity. The August 2025 update cut fees by 60%, leading to a 40% increase in active users.
What this means: Lower fees encourage more developers and users to join, which is good for DeFi projects on TRON. However, frequent fee changes might cause short-term fluctuations in network demand.

4. T3+ Program Expansion (2026)

Overview: TRON’s T3 FCU program, which froze $250 million in illegal funds in 2025, will expand in collaboration with Binance to fight fraud across blockchains. This move aligns with TRON Inc.’s plans to list on Nasdaq and focus on institutional investors (CoinJournal).
What this means: This is neutral news. Stronger compliance could attract institutional players but might also bring more regulatory scrutiny, especially around stablecoin transactions.

5. RWA & AI Integration (2026)

Overview: TRON aims to bring real-world assets (like U.S. GDP data) onto the blockchain and use AI tools through partnerships such as The Graph’s Substreams for real-time data analysis (Crypto Briefing).
What this means: This is promising for the long term. Tokenizing real-world assets could open up huge new markets, and AI integration might make decentralized apps more efficient. However, these projects carry execution risks.

Conclusion

TRON’s roadmap balances technical improvements like cross-chain support and fee adjustments with ecosystem growth through stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization. While TRON’s strong position with USDT offers stability, its future success depends on navigating regulatory challenges and expanding beyond just payments. Will TRON evolve from a stablecoin platform into a multi-chain AI and real-world asset leader? Keep an eye on the Q4 fee changes and USDD mining progress for early signs.

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What updates are there in the TRX code base?

In 2025, TRON’s technology received major upgrades aimed at improving scalability, enabling better interaction with other blockchains, and lowering transaction costs.

1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (June 2025) – Adopted Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade to enhance scaling and security.
2. 60% Fee Reduction (August 2025) – Community-approved cut to energy fees, making transactions much cheaper.
3. Substreams Integration (July 2025) – Partnered with The Graph to provide real-time blockchain data streaming for developers.

Deep Dive

1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (June 2025)

Overview
TRON integrated Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade (known as EIP-4844) to improve how it works with other blockchains and to lower costs for Layer 2 solutions (which help scale blockchains).

Details
This upgrade introduced Proto-Danksharding, a method that groups transactions off the main blockchain to reduce network congestion. TRON also improved its system for validating blocks faster and making it more secure against attacks.

What this means
This is a positive step for TRON because it makes it easier for developers to create apps that work across multiple blockchains, increases transaction speed, and aligns TRON more closely with Ethereum’s ecosystem.
(Source)

2. 60% Fee Reduction (August 2025)

Overview
TRON’s community voted to cut network energy fees by 60%, aiming to support decentralized finance (DeFi) and payment applications.

Details
The update adjusts energy costs every quarter, making frequent transactions like stablecoin transfers much cheaper. The average fee dropped from about $1.70 to $0.68.

What this means
This change is generally positive: lower fees attract more users but may reduce short-term income for the network. Over time, it strengthens TRON’s position as an affordable platform for stablecoin transactions.
(Source)

3. Substreams Integration (July 2025)

Overview
TRON partnered with The Graph to integrate Substreams, a tool that provides real-time blockchain data streaming for decentralized apps (dApps) and AI tools.

Details
Substreams lets developers access live data like wallet activity and token swaps without building complex backend systems. This reduces the time to develop dApps from weeks to hours.

What this means
This is a strong positive for TRON because it lowers the technical barriers for developers, encouraging innovation in DeFi and data analytics. Projects can build faster and use live blockchain data more easily.
(Source)

Conclusion

TRON’s 2025 updates focus on making the network more scalable, affordable, and developer-friendly—important factors for maintaining its role as a top stablecoin platform. While cutting fees might reduce short-term revenue, improvements in interoperability and data tools point to long-term growth.

What to watch: Will lower fees and better Ethereum compatibility lead to wider adoption beyond just stablecoins?