What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano’s price outlook is shaped by upcoming protocol upgrades, potential ETF approval, and market activity from large investors, all set against ongoing market ups and downs.

1. $71M Upgrade Funding – Cardano’s community approved $71 million to improve the network’s technology, aiming to make it faster and more widely used (Input Output).
2. ETF Approval Catalyst – The SEC will decide on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF by October 26, which could bring more institutional investors into the market (Grayscale).
3. Whale Accumulation – Large investors have bought over 120 million ADA since August, showing confidence but also the potential for profit-taking.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Governance (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Cardano’s community voted to withdraw $71 million from its treasury to fund key upgrades planned for 2025. These include Hydra, a layer-2 solution designed to increase transaction speed, a new consensus mechanism called Ouroboros Leios, and improvements to network nodes. The funds will be released gradually as each milestone is met.

What this means:
If these upgrades succeed, Cardano could process transactions much faster (targeting up to 1 million transactions per second with Hydra), lower fees, and attract more developers. For context, Ethereum’s upgrades in 2023 helped its price rise by 112% over six months.

2. ETF Prospects & Regulatory Environment (Uncertain Impact)

Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on Grayscale’s application for a Cardano ETF by October 26. ADA was recently classified as a commodity under the Clarity Act, which may simplify regulatory approval. However, SEC Chair Gary Gensler remains cautious about approving ETFs for altcoins.

What this means:
If approved, the ETF could bring significant institutional investment, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs, which saw Bitcoin’s price jump 72% within three months after approval. If rejected, there could be short-term price drops. Analysts currently estimate a 75% chance of approval (Bloomberg).

3. Whale Activity & Market Sentiment (Balanced Outlook)

Overview:
Since August, large investors (whales) have accumulated over 120 million ADA tokens, while smaller investors have been withdrawing ADA from exchanges, reducing active addresses by 40%. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.8 and neutral funding rates suggest the market sentiment is steady.

What this means:
Whales holding large amounts may help stabilize the price, but lower activity from retail investors might slow any strong price moves. Watch for continued accumulation above the $0.85 resistance level as a sign of potential upward momentum.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price will depend on successfully rolling out its planned upgrades to compete with networks like Ethereum and Solana, the SEC’s decision on the Cardano ETF, and how large investors behave during this period. Currently, the price is consolidating near $0.88, with the 200-day moving average at $0.735. Regulatory decisions remain the biggest unknown.

Will the October ETF decision confirm ADA’s status as a commodity and open the door for more investment, or will regulatory concerns continue to hold it back?

What are people saying about ADA?

Cardano’s conversation swings between hopes for a big price jump and worries about it settling down. Excitement about ETFs is met with skepticism from big investors. Here’s the quick take:

1. Chart experts predict $2.30 if ADA stays above $0.89
2. Big investors step in – Grayscale adds ADA to its fund, with a 75% chance of ETF approval
3. Network growth – 1.3 million people staking ADA, but price barely moves, sparking debate
4. Community split – Buzz about a midnight airdrop vs concerns over treasury management

Deep Dive

1. @ali_charts: Falling Wedge Points to 155% Rally (Bullish)

A technical analyst says if ADA breaks above $0.89, it could reach $2.30 by the third quarter of 2025. This is supported by a 72% growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) activity and a positive “golden cross” chart pattern.
– 1.2 million followers · 2.8 million impressions · July 22, 2025
View original post
What this means: The charts and ecosystem growth look promising, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68 suggests ADA might be a bit overbought soon.

2. @Grayscale: Institutional Support Through Multi-Asset ETF (Neutral)

Grayscale launched a new ETF called GLDC that includes 10% ADA. This comes after $73 million flowed into ADA from institutional investors in 2025.
– 890,000 followers · 4.1 million impressions · September 18, 2025
View announcement
What this means: ADA gets more mainstream attention, but since the ETF holds five different assets, ADA’s direct impact is somewhat limited.

3. @Cardano_Whale: Concerns Over Treasury Moves (Bearish)

A prominent Cardano supporter warns that converting ADA into stablecoins could hurt the project’s reputation. This criticism targets a $100 million treasury reallocation led by founder Charles Hoskinson.
– 340,000 followers · 1.1 million impressions · June 17, 2025
View discussion
What this means: Disagreements within the Cardano community might slow down important upgrades like Hydra, which could hold back price growth.

4. @TapTools: More Stakers, Less Price Movement (Mixed)

The number of ADA staking addresses rose 25% quarter-over-quarter to 1.3 million, but ADA’s price dropped 7% since June’s peak.
– 220,000 followers · 680,000 impressions · June 18, 2025
View analysis
What this means: More people are participating in the network, but the price isn’t reflecting that enthusiasm yet. This could mean investors are quietly accumulating ADA.

Conclusion

The outlook for Cardano is cautiously hopeful. Technical signals and ETF interest suggest ADA could surpass $1 by October 2025, but it still needs to hold above the $0.55–$0.75 range to confirm strength. Keep an eye on Grayscale’s GLDC ETF activity—continued institutional buying could support a price rise and reduce fear among everyday investors.

What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is making moves in institutional adoption and adapting to regulatory changes. Here are the key updates:

1. Multi-Asset ETF Launch (September 20, 2025) – Grayscale introduced the GDLC ETF, which includes ADA and covers 90% of the crypto market’s value.
2. $2.2 Billion Liquidation Event (September 19, 2025) – Heavy retail trading with leverage caused ADA to drop 25% in one day.
3. $71 Million Development Fund Approved (August 4, 2025) – The Cardano community voted to fund important upgrades to the network.

In-Depth Look

1. Multi-Asset ETF Launch (September 20, 2025)

What happened:
Grayscale launched the first multi-asset crypto ETF in the U.S., called GDLC, on the NYSE Arca exchange. This fund holds mostly Bitcoin (70%), Ethereum (20%), and a mix of ADA, XRP, and SOL (10%). It uses new SEC rules designed to speed up approval for commodity-based funds. Since June, GDLC has gained 40% this year, outperforming Bitcoin by 11%.

Why it matters:
This is good news for ADA because it allows big investors to get exposure to ADA without buying it directly, which can be complicated and risky. The ETF’s structure may attract more traditional investors looking for a diversified crypto investment. (Bitget)

2. $2.2 Billion Liquidation Event (September 19, 2025)

What happened:
New U.S. tariffs caused panic in the market, leading to $2.2 billion in forced sell-offs of leveraged crypto positions. ADA’s price fell sharply by 25% in just one day, wiping out recent gains.

Why it matters:
This shows how sensitive ADA is to big economic events and risky trading by everyday investors. Although prices bounced back a bit, it highlights the importance of managing risk, especially since smaller cryptocurrencies like ADA can have less trading volume and liquidity. (Bitget)

3. $71 Million Development Fund Approved (August 4, 2025)

What happened:
Cardano’s community voted on-chain to approve spending 96 million ADA (about $71 million) from its treasury. The funds will support major upgrades like Hydra scaling, Ouroboros Leios consensus improvements, and a new modular node design.

Why it matters:
This is a positive step showing Cardano’s decentralized governance in action. However, the success depends on delivering these upgrades on time and transparently. The Hydra scaling solution is especially important for making Cardano competitive in decentralized finance (DeFi). (Bitcoinist)

Conclusion

Cardano is balancing growing interest from institutions, market volatility, and ambitious technology upgrades. The GDLC ETF launch signals increasing regulatory acceptance, but ADA’s future depends on managing price swings and successfully rolling out key upgrades like Leios and Hydra. Will the SEC’s October deadline for a standalone ADA ETF boost Cardano’s presence in the institutional market?

What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s 2025 roadmap focuses on improving scalability, governance, and practical use cases. Key upcoming milestones include:

1. Hydra Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025) – A Layer-2 solution designed to make transactions faster and cheaper.
2. Midnight Glacier Airdrop (November 2025) – Distribution of privacy-focused tokens to eligible holders.
3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (2025) – An upgrade to the network’s core protocol to increase transaction speed and capacity.
4. Project Acropolis (2025) – A redesign of Cardano’s node software to make it easier for developers to build on the platform.
5. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – A crypto debit card that lets users spend ADA and other cryptocurrencies via Apple Pay and Google Pay.

Deep Dive

1. Hydra Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview: Hydra is Cardano’s Layer-2 scaling technology. It works by creating multiple parallel channels, called “heads,” that process transactions off the main blockchain. This approach aims to handle millions of transactions per second with almost no fees. The full mainnet launch is planned for late 2025, following successful testing phases (Input Output).
What this means: This is a positive development for ADA holders because Hydra could reduce network slowdowns, which currently cause about 20% of transactions to be delayed. Faster and cheaper transactions may attract decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming projects. However, there is a risk that competitors like Solana or Ethereum might release similar upgrades sooner, which could affect Cardano’s adoption.

2. Midnight Glacier Airdrop (November 2025)

Overview: Cardano plans to launch the Midnight sidechain, which focuses on privacy features. To promote this, 24 billion $NIGHT tokens will be airdropped to wallets holding at least $100 worth of ADA, Bitcoin (BTC), or Ethereum (ETH). Eligible users can claim their tokens until December 2025 through Ledger or Trezor hardware wallets (Cardanians).
What this means: This event may increase short-term interest in Cardano. However, the long-term success depends on whether institutions adopt private smart contracts, which are still under regulatory scrutiny due to privacy concerns.

3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (2025)

Overview: Ouroboros Leios is an upgrade to Cardano’s consensus protocol—the system that validates transactions and secures the network. It aims to speed up transaction finality and block propagation, potentially increasing throughput by four times without compromising decentralization. This upgrade is supported by $71 million in community-approved funding (CCN).
What this means: This is a promising long-term improvement that could make Cardano more attractive for enterprise-level applications. However, delays in development, as noted by Cardano’s founder Charles Hoskinson, could slow down positive market sentiment.

4. Project Acropolis (2025)

Overview: Project Acropolis involves redesigning Cardano’s node software to be modular. This means it will be easier for developers to contribute and support multiple programming languages. It’s part of the core development plan for 2025 (Bitcoinist).
What this means: While this upgrade is important for reducing technical challenges and encouraging developer participation, it is unlikely to have an immediate impact on ADA’s price. The success of this project depends on how quickly it is implemented.

5. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview: The Cardano Card is a self-custody debit card that allows users to spend ADA, BTC, and stablecoins through Apple Pay and Google Pay. Users will continue to earn staking rewards even while spending their crypto (Cardanians).
What this means: This product could boost Cardano’s adoption among everyday users by providing a simple way to use cryptocurrencies for daily purchases. Compliance with regulations, including identity verification (KYC), will be essential for widespread acceptance.

Conclusion

Cardano’s 2025 roadmap combines technical upgrades like Hydra and Ouroboros Leios with user-friendly products such as Midnight and the Cardano Card. These initiatives are backed by historic community voting, showing strong decentralized governance. While there are risks related to execution and competition, these developments could strengthen ADA’s role in decentralized finance and crypto payments. The question remains: can Cardano’s careful, step-by-step approach outpace rivals in the race for scalability?

What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano is making big improvements to its technology, thanks to a major community vote that approved funding for key upgrades.

1. Core Protocol Funding (August 4, 2025) – $71 million allocated to improve scalability, cross-chain compatibility, and developer tools.
2. Hydra Scaling Update (July 11, 2025) – A layer-2 solution designed to make transactions faster and cheaper.
3. Project Acropolis (August 4, 2025) – A redesign of Cardano’s node software to make it easier for developers to contribute.

Deep Dive

1. Core Protocol Funding (August 4, 2025)

Overview: Cardano’s community approved a $71 million budget through its first-ever on-chain vote. This money will fund a year-long plan focused on important upgrades.

The funds will support improvements in scalability (using the Ouroboros Leios consensus), interoperability (with Mithril lightweight nodes), and developer tools (through Project Acropolis). The money will be released in stages, tied to specific goals, and overseen by smart contracts and an independent governance group called Intersect.

What this means: This is positive news for ADA holders because community-driven funding means upgrades are aligned with what users want. Faster transactions and better compatibility with other blockchains could attract more decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.
(Source)

2. Hydra Scaling Update (July 11, 2025)

Overview: Hydra is Cardano’s layer-2 scaling solution designed to handle thousands of transactions per second off the main blockchain.

This update lowers delays and transaction costs, especially for small payments, making it ideal for DeFi and gaming applications. Hydra uses “heads” — off-chain channels that bundle transactions and settle them on the main network securely.

What this means: In the short term, this update is neutral for ADA’s price because its success depends on how widely it’s adopted. But if it works well, Cardano could compete with Ethereum and Solana in handling large transaction volumes.
(Source)

3. Project Acropolis (August 4, 2025)

Overview: Project Acropolis is a redesign of Cardano’s node software, breaking it into smaller, modular parts.

This makes it easier for outside developers to contribute without needing to understand the entire system. It lowers the barrier to entry and speeds up the rollout of new features.

What this means: This is good news for ADA because a bigger developer community can drive faster innovation. It could help Cardano quickly adapt to new trends like AI integration or tools for large institutions.
(Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is evolving through community-backed upgrades focused on scaling and software improvements. These changes aim to make the network more decentralized and technically advanced. While Hydra and Acropolis address current challenges, the milestone-based funding ensures transparency and accountability. These upgrades could help ADA become a leading platform in the next wave of DeFi innovation.

Why did the price of ADA fall?

Cardano (ADA) dropped 0.94% in the last 24 hours to $0.888, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 0.12% during the same time. The main reasons for this decline are:

1. Profit-taking after ADA’s impressive 61% gain over the past 90 days
2. Spillover from a large crypto sell-off on September 19, where $2.2 billion in leveraged positions were closed
3. Technical resistance at the $0.8955 price level, based on Fibonacci retracement

Deep Dive

1. Altcoin Profit-Taking (Negative Impact)

Since June 2025, ADA has jumped 61%, beating Bitcoin’s 49% and Ethereum’s 54% gains. The 24-hour trading volume ratio of 2.58% indicates many traders are cashing out near recent highs. This fits with the broader market trend, where the Altcoin Season Index (77/100) shows investors are shifting money between altcoins rather than leaving crypto altogether.

What this means: Short-term investors are selling some of their ADA after the strong rally in Q3 2025. ADA has struggled to break above the $0.8955 level (a key Fibonacci retracement point), failing three times since August.

2. Leveraged Trade Unwinding (Mixed Impact)

On September 19, a major crypto liquidation event closed $2.2 billion in leveraged positions, hitting altcoins like ADA harder than Bitcoin. While ADA wasn’t the biggest victim, data shows:

• $17 million worth of ADA long positions were liquidated in the past week
• Open interest (total outstanding contracts) dropped 16% over the last month
• Funding rates turned slightly negative (-0.0023%), indicating traders are paying to hold long positions

What this means: Market makers and traders are reducing their exposure to altcoins like ADA ahead of potential risks in Q4, such as the U.S. election and Federal Reserve policy decisions. ADA’s 24-hour trading volume also dropped 20% to $820 million, suggesting less trading activity and liquidity.

3. ETF-Driven Volatility (Neutral Impact)

Grayscale’s new CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF (GDLC), which launched on September 20 on the NYSE Arca exchange, includes ADA with a 10% allocation. While this is generally positive for ADA, the ETF debut caused:

• $6 million in ADA sell pressure as market makers hedged their positions
• Mixed feelings about the growing number of altcoin ETFs, with over 90 applications still pending approval

What this means: There was some short-term selling after the ETF launch, but long-term institutional interest remains. Keep an eye on GDLC’s performance—it has returned 40% year-to-date, compared to ADA’s 61%.

Conclusion

ADA’s recent dip is a normal part of market consolidation after a strong rally. This pullback was made worse by a broader reduction in leveraged trading and ETF-related adjustments. The $0.785 to $0.823 range, which aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), now serves as important support.

Key point to watch: Will ADA stay above its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.8668 through the September options expiration, which has $240 million in notional value?