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Why did the price of ADA fall?

Cardano (ADA) dropped 5.32% over the last 24 hours, falling to $0.836. This decline was sharper than the overall crypto market, which fell about 1.6%. The main reasons for this drop include:

  1. ETF Approval Delay – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF until October 26, lowering the chances of approval from 95% to just 8%.
  2. Whale Profit-Taking – Large investors sold their ADA holdings near the $0.95 resistance level, slowing down upward momentum.
  3. Technical Resistance – ADA faced selling pressure at the $0.85 Fibonacci retracement level, a common technical indicator used to identify potential reversal points.

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Uncertainty (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The SEC delayed its ruling on Grayscale’s spot Cardano ETF until October 26. This caused the market’s confidence in approval to drop sharply from 95% to 8%, according to Polymarket (U.Today). Although recent SEC rule changes have made it easier for generic crypto ETFs to get listed, Cardano’s ETF status remains unclear.

What this means:
This delay increases short-term uncertainty, especially for altcoins like ADA that are competing for institutional investment. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs, Cardano doesn’t yet have clear regulatory approval, which makes traders more cautious.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on the SEC’s October 26 deadline and how Grayscale’s S-1 filing progresses under the new streamlined ETF rules (MEXC News).

2. Whale Activity & On-Chain Pressure (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Large investors, often called “whales,” bought ADA aggressively when prices were below $0.80 but slowed down as the price approached $0.90. On-chain data shows a decrease in futures trading volume and more selling pressure from spot traders since July (AMBCrypto).

What this means:
Profit-taking near resistance levels between $0.85 and $0.95 caused selling pressure. However, the $0.79 to $0.82 range remains a strong support zone where whales have previously accumulated ADA.

Key level:
There are about $7 million in ADA long positions set to be liquidated around $0.84. If the price falls below this level, it could trigger faster declines toward $0.79.

3. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Bias)

Overview:
ADA’s price fell below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.85 and is facing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.878. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54.4, indicating there’s still room for the price to drop before becoming oversold.

What this means:
The MACD histogram has turned slightly positive (+0.0037), suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. However, the price remains below important moving averages, which keeps the overall outlook cautious. A close above $0.85 would challenge this bearish view.

Conclusion

The recent drop in ADA’s price is mainly due to the delayed ETF approval, profit-taking by large holders, and failure to break through key resistance levels. While Cardano’s mid-term fundamentals—such as partnerships with NEAR Protocol and the upcoming Leios upgrade—are still strong, traders are factoring in regulatory risks.

Key watch: Can ADA maintain support at $0.82 ahead of the SEC’s October ETF decision? Also, watch Grayscale’s filings and shifts in Bitcoin’s market dominance for clues on ADA’s future direction.


What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano’s price is caught between exciting network upgrades and uncertainty around an important ETF decision.

  1. ETF Approval Chances – The SEC’s delay is causing price swings; a key decision is expected in October.
  2. Network Upgrades – The community approved $71 million for improvements aimed at making Cardano faster and more scalable.
  3. Whale Activity – Big investors are buying and selling, sending mixed signals about confidence.

Deep Dive

1. Spot ETF Prospects (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on a Cardano ETF until October 26. This caused the chances of approval to drop sharply from 95% to 8% in just a few days. However, new SEC rules now allow crypto ETFs if the asset has been traded in regulated futures markets for at least six months. Cardano meets this requirement since futures contracts started trading on the CME in the second quarter of 2025 (U.Today).

What this means: If approved, the ETF could open the door for big institutional investors to buy Cardano through regulated channels, potentially driving demand. But if the decision is delayed further, Cardano could face a sharp price drop similar to what happened to Solana in 2024, which lost 28% in 10 days after an ETF rejection. The $0.84 price level is especially important because it represents $7 million in liquidations, making it a key support point.

2. Protocol Development (Bullish Impact)

Overview: In August 2025, Cardano holders voted to allocate 96 million ADA (worth about $71 million) to fund core network upgrades. The plan for the next year focuses on improving transaction speed with Ouroboros Leios, scaling solutions through Hydra, and enhancing light client security with Mithril (CCN).

What this means: If these upgrades succeed, they could solve long-standing issues with Cardano’s scalability and increase demand for staking. Currently, 21.6 billion ADA (60% of the total supply) is staked, showing strong community involvement. However, the release of funds depends on milestone checks by a group called Intersect, which adds some risk to the project’s execution.

3. Whale Sentiment (Neutral Impact)

Overview: Large investors, or “whales,” bought 70 million ADA in September 2025 around the $0.80 price but sold 30 million during the ETF delay in October. Their total holdings stand at 5.53 billion ADA, slightly below the August peak of 5.8 billion (AMBCrypto).

What this means: Buying at lower prices shows some confidence, but the whales also set a sell wall at $1, indicating they are ready to take profits. The turnover ratio of 0.0434 suggests moderate trading activity, meaning whale moves could cause noticeable price swings.

Conclusion

Cardano’s future depends on turning its strong community governance into real technical improvements while navigating the uncertain ETF landscape. Technical indicators like the MACD show positive momentum, and ADA has gained 42.75% over the past 90 days. However, the RSI at 54.4 signals the market might be pausing. The upcoming Chang upgrade’s decentralized treasury model will be crucial to keep development going, especially if ETF approval is delayed or denied. Watch the $0.83 200-day EMA as a key level to determine if bulls or bears are in control.


What are people saying about ADA?

The conversation around Cardano (ADA) is balancing excitement over upcoming technology improvements with concerns about delays in ETF approval. Here’s what’s trending right now:

  1. A $1.03 price target is gaining attention as technical indicators show positive signs.
  2. Optimism about an ETF approval is tempered by delays from the SEC and some large investors taking profits.
  3. Large purchases of 70 million ADA by big holders near the $0.80 price point suggest accumulation is happening.

Deep Dive

1. @ali_charts: TD Sequential Buy Signal Confirmed 🟢

"Cardano $ADA is a buy, according to the TD Sequential indicator!"
– @ali_charts (1.2M followers · 850K impressions · 2025-09-03 05:28 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This technical indicator has historically predicted short-term price increases for ADA. However, for this signal to hold, the price needs to move above the $0.85 resistance level.

2. @Cardanians_io: ETF Hype Meets Regulatory Reality 🟡

"$ADA won't be undervalued forever. Plan accordingly."
– @Cardanians_io (380K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-11 07:20 UTC)
View original post
What this means: There’s mixed sentiment because the chances of an ETF approval in 2025 dropped sharply from 95% to 8% after the SEC delayed its decision. Still, some technical filings suggest approval could happen eventually.

3. AMBCrypto: Whale Accumulation at $0.80 🟢

"70M ADA purchased weekly by whales despite price stagnation"
– AMBCrypto (4 October 2025 analysis)
View article
What this means: Large investors (whales) are steadily buying ADA around $0.80, similar to activity earlier in 2025 that led to a 42% price increase. However, there are still significant sell orders between $0.84 and $0.88 that could slow gains.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for Cardano is cautiously optimistic. Upcoming technology upgrades like Hydra scaling and the possibility of an ETF approval are positive factors. But regulatory delays and resistance around $0.85–$0.90 mean the price needs strong buying volume to move higher. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision expected on October 26 — approval could push ADA toward $1.20–$1.50, while rejection might test support near $0.75.


What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is dealing with delays in its ETF approval and big investor moves while preparing for important upgrades. Here’s the latest update:

  1. SEC Pushes Cardano ETF Decision to October 26, 2025 – Chances of approval dropped sharply from 95% to 8% after the delay.
  2. Bollinger Bands Suggest Cardano May Be Undervalued (Oct 4, 2025) – ADA is trading below a key price level ($0.874), which could mean a price increase if buying interest picks up.
  3. REX-Osprey Files for ADA ETF Under New SEC Rules (Oct 3, 2025) – Part of 21 single-asset crypto ETF applications waiting for SEC approval.

In-Depth Look

1. SEC Delays Cardano ETF Decision to October 26, 2025

What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF application from August to October 26. This caused the odds of approval to drop from 95% to just 8%, showing increased uncertainty from regulators.

What this means for you:
In the short term, this is a negative sign as traders expect delays. But in the long run, it’s more neutral because the SEC recently approved new rules that make ETF approvals faster and more straightforward. If the Cardano ETF is approved, it could bring more big investors into ADA, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. (U.Today)

2. Bollinger Bands Indicate Cardano Might Be Undervalued (Oct 4, 2025)

What happened:
Cardano’s price is $0.846, which is below its upper Bollinger Band level of $0.874. Bollinger Bands are a tool that helps identify if a price is high or low compared to recent trends. When the price is below the upper band and trading volume is rising (up 4.55% to $1.4 billion), it can signal a potential price increase. However, large investors (whales) have slowed down their buying, which adds some uncertainty.

What this means for you:
The technical signals are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 49.64, meaning there’s room for the price to go up. If ADA’s price closes above $0.874, it could confirm a positive trend. But if it falls below $0.81, it might test support at $0.76. (U.Today)

3. REX-Osprey Files ADA ETF Under New SEC Rules (Oct 3, 2025)

What happened:
REX-Osprey submitted 21 applications for single-asset crypto ETFs, including one for Cardano, using the SEC’s new standardized listing process. Instead of reviewing each ETF case by case, the SEC now uses a streamlined process based on S-1 filings.

What this means for you:
This is a positive development for Cardano’s market liquidity and accessibility. However, the current U.S. government shutdown has temporarily paused SEC reviews. Once the shutdown ends, approvals are expected to move faster under the new rules. (Cryptoslate)

Conclusion

Cardano is facing short-term challenges due to ETF delays and cautious big investors. Still, it has strong potential drivers like upcoming protocol upgrades (Leios, Hydra) and a smoother path for ETF approvals. The big question is whether October 26 will be the day ADA breaks through to institutional investors or faces another regulatory setback.


What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano is making progress with several important updates coming up:

  1. SEC ETF Decision (October 26, 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide whether to approve Grayscale’s proposal for a Cardano ETF.
  2. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – A new debit card that lets users spend Cardano (ADA), Bitcoin (BTC), and stablecoins while keeping control of their own funds.
  3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025 – Q1 2026) – An upgrade to Cardano’s core technology to handle more transactions faster without losing security.

Deep Dive

1. SEC ETF Decision (October 26, 2025)

What’s happening: The SEC will make a final decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF application by October 26, 2025. If approved, this would be the first Cardano ETF available on U.S. stock markets. While Cardano already has investment products in Europe, U.S. approval could bring more investors and increase trading activity (Cardanians_io).
Why it matters: Approval means more demand for ADA because ETFs need to buy and hold the actual cryptocurrency. If denied, it could slow down interest in the short term.

2. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: Cardano plans to release a debit card that works with Apple Pay and Google Pay. This card will let users spend ADA, Bitcoin, and stablecoins directly, while still keeping control of their own crypto wallets (self-custody) (Cardanians_io).
Why it matters: This makes using crypto in everyday life easier, which could attract more people to Cardano. However, there could be challenges like government rules and competition from other crypto cards.

3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025 – Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Cardano will upgrade its Ouroboros consensus protocol, which is the technology that helps verify transactions on its blockchain. The upgrade aims to increase the number of transactions Cardano can handle without sacrificing security or decentralization. Founder Charles Hoskinson called this upgrade “competitively necessary” after some delays (Cardanians_io).
Why it matters: This upgrade could make Cardano more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and institutional users who need fast and reliable transactions. However, delays or technical problems could slow progress.

Conclusion

Cardano’s upcoming plans include important regulatory decisions, new products for everyday crypto use, and technical improvements to support growth. The SEC’s ETF decision is the next big event to watch, but long-term success depends on improving scalability and real-world usability. If the ETF is approved, it could bring more institutional investors and change how ADA is traded and used.


What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano’s software is improving thanks to community-funded upgrades and technical enhancements.

  1. Core Protocol Funding Approved (August 4, 2025) – $71 million allocated from the treasury to improve scalability and decentralization.
  2. Account Enhancement CIP Drafted (August 5, 2025) – Proposal to allow users to pay fees in tokens other than ADA for small app transactions.
  3. CNCLI v6.6.0 Released (August 4, 2025) – Updates that make running Cardano nodes easier for stake pool operators.

Deep Dive

1. Core Protocol Funding Approved (August 4, 2025)

Overview: Cardano’s community voted to allocate 96 million ADA (about $71 million) from its treasury to fund protocol upgrades over the next year. This is the first time development funding has been approved through on-chain governance.

The money will support projects like Hydra (a layer-2 solution to increase transaction speed), Ouroboros Leios (an upgrade to the consensus mechanism for better throughput), and Project Acropolis (which aims to create a modular node design). Payments will be made based on milestones, with oversight by an independent group called Intersect to ensure transparency.

What this means: This is positive news for ADA because it speeds up improvements in scalability and developer tools, which could encourage more decentralized finance (DeFi) projects on Cardano. (Source)

2. Account Enhancement CIP Drafted (August 5, 2025)

Overview: A new Cardano Improvement Proposal (CIP) suggests allowing users to pay transaction fees using native tokens other than ADA. It also proposes letting users lock non-ADA assets as deposits, which addresses a common user experience issue.

This change would adjust how deposits are handled by linking them to reward mechanisms, removing the current requirement of holding at least 1 ADA per UTxO (unspent transaction output). This makes small transactions—like voting, governance actions, and DeFi interactions—simpler and more cost-effective.

What this means: This update could attract more developers to build decentralized apps (dApps) on Cardano, though it still needs community approval. Overall, it’s a neutral to positive development. (Source)

3. CNCLI v6.6.0 Released (August 4, 2025)

Overview: The latest version of CNCLI, a command-line tool for Cardano stake pool operators (SPOs), improves block propagation speed and adds new debugging features.

Key improvements include better logging of transaction processing and more efficient memory use, which helps reduce operating costs for SPOs.

What this means: While this update doesn’t directly affect ADA’s price, it’s important for maintaining network stability and ensuring nodes run smoothly during busy periods. (Source)

Conclusion

Cardano’s development is moving forward with community-backed funding focused on scalability and user experience improvements. With major upgrades like Ouroboros Leios and Hydra on the horizon, these changes could strengthen ADA’s position in the competitive Layer 1 blockchain space.