What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano’s price is balancing between upcoming protocol upgrades and uncertainty around ETF approval.

1. ETF Approval (Positive) – There’s a 75% chance the SEC will approve an ADA ETF by 2025, which could bring in big institutional investors.
2. Network Upgrades (Mixed) – A $71 million treasury-funded plan aims to improve Cardano’s scalability, but there are risks in delivering these upgrades on time.
3. Regulatory Clarity (Positive) – ADA being classified as a “commodity” under U.S. law reduces regulatory pressure from the SEC.

Deep Dive

1. ETF Approval Odds (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Grayscale has applied for a spot ADA ETF, with the SEC expected to decide by October 2025 (Bloomberg). Prediction markets suggest about a 79% chance of approval. If approved, this could attract investment similar to what Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen, potentially pushing ADA’s price to around $1.20–$1.30.

What this means:
ETFs make it easier for large investors like institutions to buy ADA, increasing liquidity and helping the market find a fair price. For example, a $1.2 billion inflow—similar to what Ethereum ETFs saw in 2024—could boost ADA’s price by 20–30% in the short term.

2. Protocol Upgrades & Treasury Funding (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Cardano’s community approved $71 million in funding for key projects: Hydra (to improve scalability), Leios (to enhance consensus), and Midnight (to add privacy features). These funds are released only when specific milestones are met, with oversight by Intersect (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
If these upgrades succeed, Cardano could handle up to 1 million transactions per second (TPS), which would encourage more decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. However, delays could hurt investor confidence. For context, the Alonzo upgrade took over six months after approval to fully roll out, showing that patience is needed.

3. Regulatory Tailwinds (Positive Impact)

Overview:
The upcoming 2025 Clarity Act is expected to officially classify ADA as a commodity, placing it under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) instead of the SEC. This shift should make it easier to launch ETFs. However, some legal challenges remain, such as staking-related lawsuits in California and New Jersey (Coinspeaker).

What this means:
Clearer regulations reduce the risk of sudden crackdowns, but ongoing state-level lawsuits could slow down features like staking on exchanges such as Coinbase.

Conclusion

Cardano’s outlook for 2025 depends heavily on whether ETFs get approved (which would be a big positive) and whether the network upgrades are delivered on time (which carries some risk). Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF decision expected by October 26 and the progress of Hydra’s mainnet launch. The big question: will institutional interest make up for slower retail adoption in the last quarter of the year?

What are people saying about ADA?

The Cardano (ADA) community is balancing hopeful optimism with careful caution. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Bullish chart patterns suggest a possible 155% price increase to $2.30
2. Large investors (“whales”) are alternating between buying big and taking profits
3. Excitement around an ADA ETF is building as SEC deadlines approach
4. Everyday investor sentiment is turning negative despite growing institutional interest
5. Network milestones like reaching 1 million monthly transactions are driving momentum

Deep Dive

1. Falling Wedge Breakout Points to $2.30 🚀 Bullish

John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) predicts a 155% rally toward $2.30 if ADA stays above $0.89 support.
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What this means: Technical analysts see Cardano breaking out of a downward price pattern called a “falling wedge,” which is usually a positive sign. However, some indicators show the price might be overbought, so holding the $0.89 level is key to this rally.

2. Whales’ Buying and Selling Creates Mixed Signals 🐋

Ali Charts (@ali_charts) reports that whales sold 30 million ADA in one week but bought $77 million worth just days later.
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What this means: Big investors are taking profits when prices near $0.92 but also buying more when prices dip to $0.75-$0.80. This back-and-forth causes price swings that can be tricky for short-term traders.

3. ADA ETF Decision by SEC Approaching ⏳ Bullish

Grayscale announced the SEC will decide on their spot ADA ETF application by October 26.
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What this means: There’s about a 75% chance the ETF will be approved, according to Polymarket. If approved, it could boost ADA’s price by 20-30%, pushing it to $1.10-$1.20, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs.

4. Retail Investor Sentiment Drops Sharply 😱 Bearish

Santiment reports that the ratio of positive to negative comments from everyday investors fell from 12:1 to 1.5:1 in just three weeks.
View analysis
What this means: When regular investors become very pessimistic, it often happens right before big investors start buying again, which can lead to price rallies.

5. Cardano Hits 1 Million Transactions per Month ✅ Neutral

Input Output HK (@InputOutputHK), Cardano’s official team, announced the network processed 1 million transactions in a month despite price staying steady.
View update
What this means: While more people are using the network, the total value locked (TVL) in Cardano’s decentralized finance (DeFi) apps is still 72% below its all-time high ($400 million vs. $1.5 billion), showing a gap between real use and speculative interest.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for Cardano is cautiously optimistic. Technical signals and hopes for an ETF approval are balanced by the unpredictable moves of large investors and slower growth in DeFi activity. The $0.83-$0.85 price range is an important support zone. Traders are watching closely for the SEC’s decision on the Grayscale ADA ETF on October 26. If the ETF is rejected, ADA could drop back to $0.75. But if it’s approved, it might start its first sustained rise above $1 since 2021.

What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is gaining momentum thanks to recent regulatory approvals and positive market signals, but some broader economic risks remain. Here’s the latest update:

1. Coinbase Staking Launches in New York City (October 8, 2025) – ADA staking is now approved in New York, bringing access to 46 states across the U.S.
2. Hoskinson Highlights Privacy Coins (October 8, 2025) – Cardano’s founder predicts privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Midnight will lead the next altcoin boom.
3. Upcoming ADA ETF Decisions (October 8, 2025) – The SEC is expected to decide on two ADA exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this month.

In-Depth Look

1. Coinbase Staking Launches in New York City (October 8, 2025)

Summary:
Coinbase has received approval to offer ADA staking services in New York after addressing regulatory concerns related to a 2023 SEC lawsuit. This means ADA staking is now available in 46 U.S. states. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong encourages other states to drop legal challenges, emphasizing that staking should not be considered a security.

Why it matters:
This is a positive development for ADA because it allows more everyday investors to participate in staking, which currently involves about 70% of all ADA tokens. Approval from New York, a major financial hub, signals growing regulatory acceptance. This move aligns with industry trends, such as Grayscale adding staking options to its Ethereum ETF. (Coinspeaker)

2. Hoskinson Highlights Privacy Coins (October 8, 2025)

Summary:
Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, believes that privacy-focused blockchains like Midnight—a sidechain using zero-knowledge proofs—will drive the next wave of altcoin growth. This comes after Midnight’s integration with popular hardware wallets Ledger and Trezor, and ADA’s inclusion in Hashdex’s ETF.

Why it matters:
This positions Cardano as a leader in privacy technology, which could attract developers building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. However, competition from other privacy coins like Zcash and Monero remains strong, and regulators may increase scrutiny of privacy features. (U.Today)

3. Upcoming ADA ETF Decisions (October 8, 2025)

Summary:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make decisions on two ADA ETFs by the end of October: Grayscale’s trust conversion (deadline October 7) and Tuttle Capital’s proposal (deadline October 26). Market predictions give a 90% chance of approval, with analysts forecasting a 20-30% price increase if the ETFs are approved.

Why it matters:
Approval would open the door for ADA to enter regulated investment markets, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. On the other hand, rejection could cause ADA’s price to fall back to around $0.75. Currently, ADA is holding steady between $0.83 and $0.85, and Coinbase’s ADA holdings have increased by 462% in the last quarter. (Weex)

Conclusion

Cardano is showing strong signs of growth thanks to regulatory progress, ecosystem improvements, and potential ETF approvals. However, broader economic challenges—like possible U.S. government shutdowns and rising Treasury yields—could slow momentum. The big question remains: will privacy innovations and ETF inflows push ADA past the $1 mark, or will wider market pressures delay this breakthrough?

What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s development plan focuses on improving scalability, governance, and real-world use.

1. Midnight Glacier Drop (November 2025) – Airdrop of NIGHT tokens through the privacy-focused Midnight sidechain.
2. Core Protocol Upgrades (2025–2026) – $71 million from the treasury to boost scalability, interoperability, and node performance.
3. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – A self-custody debit card supporting ADA and major cryptocurrencies.
4. Account Enhancement CIP (2026) – Allows decentralized apps (dApps) to accept fees in any native token, not just ADA.

Deep Dive

1. Midnight Glacier Drop (November 2025)

Overview:
Cardano’s new privacy-focused Midnight sidechain will distribute NIGHT tokens via an airdrop to ADA holders and users of eight other blockchains, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Users will have 60 days to claim their tokens, after which any unclaimed tokens will be redistributed. Midnight lets developers pay transaction fees using various tokens like ETH or ADA and aims to become a hub for privacy across different blockchains.

What this means:
This is positive news for ADA holders because it encourages use across multiple blockchains and adds privacy features, which could attract institutional investors (InputOutputHK). However, privacy tools may face regulatory challenges, and there could be delays in rollout.

2. Core Protocol Upgrades (2025–2026)

Overview:
In August 2025, 74% of Cardano voters approved a $71 million budget for key upgrades:

• Ouroboros Leios: A consensus protocol upgrade designed to handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) in tests.
• Project Acropolis: A redesign of Cardano’s nodes to make it easier for developers to contribute.
• Mithril: A system for lightweight clients to sync faster with the network.

Funds will be released in stages, monitored by the Intersect platform and smart contracts (Bitcoinist).

What this means:
These upgrades could significantly improve Cardano’s speed and reduce transaction costs by about 40%, making it more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. While promising, there is always a risk of delays or technical challenges.

3. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Cardano plans to launch a self-custody debit card, available in both virtual and physical forms. This card will allow users to spend ADA, BTC, and stablecoins through Apple Pay and Google Pay, while also earning staking rewards. The card is being developed with fintech partners who have not yet been publicly named.

What this means:
This could boost ADA’s everyday use by making it easier for people to spend their crypto. However, crypto-linked cards often face regulatory hurdles, which could affect the launch timeline (Cardanians_io).

4. Account Enhancement CIP (2026)

Overview:
This proposal will let decentralized applications (dApps) accept transaction fees in any native token on Cardano, not just ADA. This change will simplify small payments and governance processes. The proposal is currently under review.

What this means:
This is good news for developers because it removes the current requirement to pay fees only in ADA, making Cardano more flexible and competitive with other platforms like Ethereum (Bitcoinist).

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap combines important technical upgrades (like Ouroboros Leios and Project Acropolis) with user-friendly products (Midnight sidechain and Cardano Card) and improvements in governance. The main risks include potential delays and regulatory scrutiny, especially around privacy features. With ADA’s price up 137% year-over-year, these developments will be crucial to maintaining momentum against competitors like Solana’s Firedancer.

What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano is making big strides with important upgrades and community-backed projects to improve its technology.

1. Ouroboros Leios Acceleration (June 2025) – A key update to speed up transactions and handle more users at once.
2. $71M Treasury Funding Approval (August 2025) – The community approved a $71 million budget to improve scaling and node performance.
3. Trezor Wallet Integration (September 2025) – Added support for Trezor hardware wallets to securely claim $NIGHT tokens.

Deep Dive

1. Ouroboros Leios Acceleration (June 2025)

What it is: Cardano’s core protocol, called Ouroboros Leios, is being launched earlier than planned to make the network faster and more scalable without losing its decentralized nature.
This upgrade will introduce new transaction fees based on usage tiers and make syncing the blockchain more efficient. Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, stressed that this update is crucial to keep Cardano competitive.
Why it matters: Faster transaction processing and higher capacity can attract more decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and institutional users to Cardano, which is good news for ADA holders. (Source)

2. $71M Treasury Funding Approval (August 2025)

What it is: Cardano’s community voted to allocate $71 million from its treasury to fund important upgrades like Hydra (a layer-2 scaling solution) and Project Acropolis (which improves node management).
Payments will be released based on milestones, with oversight to ensure progress. Hydra aims to lower transaction fees and support small payments, while Acropolis makes running nodes easier.
Why it matters: This funding shows strong community support and could speed up development, helping Cardano handle more users and transactions. However, success depends on timely delivery of these projects. (Source)

3. Trezor Wallet Integration (September 2025)

What it is: Cardano’s Midnight project now supports Trezor and Ledger hardware wallets for claiming $NIGHT tokens. This replaces the older, less secure method of message signing with safer “null transactions.”
This update reduces phishing risks and aligns with Cardano’s goal of making security easy for users. The claim window closes 26 days after the announcement.
Why it matters: Adding hardware wallet support increases user confidence and adoption, especially for privacy-focused projects like Midnight. (Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is evolving through important protocol upgrades, better scaling solutions, and stronger wallet security—all driven by its decentralized community. While updates like Leios and Hydra aim to keep Cardano technically competitive, the community-funded projects show growing alignment among stakeholders. The big question is whether these faster upgrades will lead to lasting growth as competition among Layer-1 blockchains heats up.

Why did the price of ADA go up?

Cardano (ADA) increased by 1.63% in the past 24 hours, outperforming its 7-day decline of 0.88% and 30-day drop of 2.74%. This rise aligns with a general rebound in the cryptocurrency market, which saw a 1.51% increase in total market value, but ADA’s growth is also driven by factors specific to this coin.

1. Market Recovery (Mixed Effects) – Bitcoin’s rise above $124,000 helped lift other cryptocurrencies.
2. Coinbase Staking Expansion (Positive) – ADA staking became available in New York, making it easier for more people to participate.
3. ETF Speculation (Positive) – Investors are hopeful about upcoming SEC decisions on ADA-related ETFs by late October.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Market Recovery (Mixed Effects)

Summary: Bitcoin’s price bounced back from $121,000 to $124,000 (a 2.5% increase) in the last 24 hours, sparking a rally among alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). ADA followed this trend, recovering from a low of $0.83 earlier in the week.

What this means: ADA’s gains are notable compared to other altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), which dropped 3.8%, and Solana (SOL), which fell 3.7%. The Fear & Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, is at a neutral 55, indicating cautious optimism. This suggests that investors are rotating funds into altcoins like ADA after Bitcoin stabilized.

What to watch: Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $124,000 is important. If it falls below this level, ADA and other altcoins could face renewed selling pressure.

2. Coinbase Staking Expansion (Positive)

Summary: On October 8, Coinbase started offering ADA staking services in New York, expanding availability to 46 U.S. states. This follows similar moves by Grayscale, which added ADA staking to its Ethereum ETF, and eToro’s tiered staking program.

What this means: Staking encourages users to lock up their ADA tokens, reducing the number available for trading (currently, about 35.8 billion ADA are in circulation). This can support ADA’s price by promoting long-term holding. Coinbase’s launch in New York is significant because it required regulatory approval, overcoming previous licensing hurdles.

What to watch: Monitor how many users take advantage of staking on Coinbase and whether other platforms like Kraken expand their ADA staking options.

3. ETF Speculation (Positive)

Summary: Analysts estimate a 90% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve at least one ADA exchange-traded fund (ETF) by October 26. Grayscale’s decision on converting its Cardano Trust is expected by October 7, with Tuttle Capital’s ETF filing decision due on October 26.

What this means: Approval of an ADA ETF would make it easier for institutional investors to buy ADA, potentially increasing demand. ADA’s recent inclusion in the S&P Cryptocurrency Index and Hashdex’s existing ETF also support its growing acceptance in mainstream finance.

What to watch: Pay attention to any SEC announcements, especially during the U.S. government shutdown period, as delays could affect market sentiment.

Conclusion

ADA’s recent price increase reflects a combination of overall market recovery, improved staking access, and optimism about ETF approvals. Technical indicators show positive momentum, but the $0.94 price level remains a key resistance point.

Key question: Will ADA maintain its position above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.83 and break through the $0.95 to $1.02 resistance range before the ETF decisions?