Why did the price of ADA fall?
Cardano (ADA) dropped 4.28% in the last 24 hours to $0.627, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.26%. The main reasons for this decline are:
- Large holders selling – Big investors sold 350 million ADA, causing panic among smaller traders.
- Technical breakdown – ADA fell below a key support level at $0.61, triggering automatic sell orders.
- Market-wide risk aversion – Investors pulled back from altcoins like ADA amid broader economic uncertainty.
Deep Dive
1. Large Holder Sell-Off (Negative Impact)
Overview:
In the past week, major ADA holders sold about 350 million ADA, worth roughly $220 million, reducing their share to 10% of all ADA available (U.Today). This selling increased after ADA dropped below $0.61 on October 17.
What this means:
When big investors sell, it increases the supply of ADA on the market and shakes confidence. This leads smaller traders to sell as well, causing a cycle of falling prices. ADA’s trading volume jumped 61% to $1.87 billion in 24 hours, showing high activity. Historically, ADA struggles to bounce back until these large holders stop selling.
What to watch:
Keep an eye on on-chain data like whale transaction counts. Continued large sales could keep prices down longer.
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)
Overview:
ADA broke below the $0.61 support level, entering a downward trend channel. The next possible price targets are $0.57 (the low from 2024) or even $0.50. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30.79, indicating the coin is oversold but hasn’t yet started to recover.
What this means:
Technical traders see this breakdown as a sign that prices may continue to fall. The MACD indicator shows weakening momentum, and the 200-day moving average at $0.7416 acts as a strong resistance level that ADA would need to overcome to recover.
Key level to watch:
If ADA closes above $0.64 daily, it could signal the end of the downtrend. However, to sustain a recovery, ADA needs to rise above $0.69, which is the 20-day exponential moving average.
3. Broader Market Liquidations (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
On October 17, the crypto market saw $1.23 billion in forced sell-offs (Cryptotimes), with ADA accounting for $27 million of that. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 28, signaling extreme fear among investors.
What this means:
Altcoins like ADA tend to be hit harder during market-wide sell-offs. However, since ADA is oversold (RSI below 30) and has gained 82% year-to-date, there is potential for a price bounce if Bitcoin stabilizes above $104,000.
Conclusion
ADA’s recent price drop is driven by large holders selling, technical breakdowns, and overall market sell-offs. Although oversold signals suggest a possible rebound, recovery depends on Bitcoin holding above $100,000 and whales stopping their sales.
Key point to watch: Can ADA hold the $0.60 support level, or will the 350 million ADA sold by whales push prices down to retest 2024 lows? Track exchange inflows on Santiment.
What could affect the price of ADA?
Cardano’s price is currently caught between downward pressure and positive developments.
- Protocol Upgrades (Positive) – Important updates like Ouroboros Leios aim to make the network faster and more efficient.
- Regulatory Risks (Negative) – The SEC’s decision on a Cardano ETF, expected on October 26, could impact big investors’ interest.
- Whale Activity (Mixed) – Large holders recently sold 350 million ADA, but technical indicators suggest a possible price bounce.
In-Depth Look
1. Protocol Upgrades & Ecosystem Growth (Positive Impact)
Overview:
In August 2025, Cardano’s community approved a $71 million treasury fund for major upgrades, including Ouroboros Leios (which improves scalability), Midnight Network (which enhances privacy), and Hydra (which supports small, fast transactions). These improvements aim to increase transaction speed, lower costs, and attract more developers to the platform.
What this means:
If these upgrades are successfully rolled out, they could boost Cardano’s usefulness and help drive the price up. For example, when Hydra was introduced in 2024, ADA’s price rose by 65%. However, any delays or technical problems could keep the price under pressure.
2. Regulatory Risks & ETF Decision (Negative or Mixed Impact)
Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide by October 26, 2025, whether to approve Grayscale’s Cardano ETF. Currently, there’s about an 87% chance of approval according to market predictions, but the SEC’s concerns about whether ADA is a security remain a challenge.
What this means:
If the ETF is approved, it could bring more money into ADA, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs, increasing its legitimacy and liquidity. If denied, ADA could see a sharp sell-off, similar to XRP’s 18% drop after the SEC lawsuit in 2023.
3. Whale Behavior & Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Large investors, known as whales, sold 350 million ADA (around $220 million) last week, contributing to a 24% drop in ADA’s price over the week. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30.79, indicating the coin is oversold—a level that has historically led to price rebounds (like the 40% rise in May 2025).
What this means:
If whales start buying ADA again, as they did in July 2025 when they purchased 200 million ADA, the price could bounce back to between $0.70 and $0.80. But if selling continues, ADA might fall toward the $0.55 support level.
Conclusion
Cardano’s price will depend on how well its technical upgrades perform against regulatory challenges. A successful ETF approval and the rollout of Ouroboros Leios could push ADA toward $1. On the other hand, regulatory setbacks or delayed upgrades might cause further declines. The big question is: Will the SEC’s October decision help turn the market sentiment positive?
What are people saying about ADA?
The Cardano community is divided between hope for a price breakout and fear of a drop. Here’s what’s making headlines:
- Big holders sold 350 million ADA – adding downward pressure
- Oversold RSI hints at a possible rebound – signs of a potential price bounce
- Midnight Network launch creates buzz – a privacy upgrade that could boost demand
In-Depth Look
1. Whale Sell-Off Raises Concerns 🐋
According to @ali_charts, large Cardano holders, known as whales, sold 350 million ADA (about $217 million) last week. Their total holdings are now just 10% of the total supply, the lowest since 2023.
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What this means: This is a bearish sign for ADA. When big investors reduce their holdings, it often leads to panic selling by smaller investors. The $0.60 price level is a key support point—if ADA falls below this, it could trigger a sharp sell-off.
2. Oversold Conditions Suggest a Bounce 📈
@Cardanians_io points out that ADA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of how oversold or overbought an asset is, dropped to 30. This level was last seen before a big 80% rally in March. Combined with upcoming network upgrades and rumors about an ETF, this could be a buying opportunity.
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What this means: This is a bullish signal. Historically, when ADA becomes oversold, it tends to bounce back quickly. Traders are watching $0.65 as the first resistance level, with $0.75 to $0.80 being critical zones to watch.
3. Midnight Network Launch Sparks Interest 🌑
@Fmkohn shares that Cardano’s privacy-focused Layer 2 solution, Midnight Network, will launch on November 1. Along with this, 24 billion $NIGHT tokens will be airdropped to 37 million wallets, which could increase demand for ADA.
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What this means: The impact is mixed. While the new privacy features could attract more users, some airdrop recipients might sell ADA to claim their free tokens. The success of this upgrade depends on how well Midnight is adopted after launch.
Conclusion
The general outlook for ADA is bearish in the short term but cautiously optimistic over the long term. Large holder sell-offs and broader market challenges are weighing on sentiment now, but upcoming developments in the fourth quarter offer potential catalysts:
- Key level to watch: Whether ADA closes above or below $0.60 daily
- Important event: Grayscale’s decision on a spot ETF, with a 75% chance of approval according to Polymarket
Despite a tough 25% drop in October, Cardano’s $21 billion market cap and 5.4 million wallets show it has staying power. As Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said, "Bear markets separate tourists from builders."
What is the latest news about ADA?
Cardano is navigating a challenging market with signs of being oversold and important upcoming upgrades. Here’s the latest update:
- Oversold RSI Signals Possible Bounce (October 17, 2025) – Cardano’s RSI dropped to 30.79, suggesting it might rebound from the $0.60 support level.
- Whales Sell 350 Million ADA (October 17, 2025) – Large holders sold about 10% of the circulating supply, adding to recent price drops.
- Midnight Network Launch Coming Soon (September 8, 2025) – A new privacy-focused sidechain and NIGHT token airdrop are planned for November.
In-Depth Look
1. Oversold RSI Signals Possible Bounce (October 17, 2025)
What happened?
Cardano’s price fell 24% in one week, reaching $0.62. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool that measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, dropped to 30.79. This low level hasn’t been seen since a major sell-off in March 2025. Trading volume increased by 62% to $1.87 billion, showing heavy selling but also possible buying interest near the $0.60 mark. Experts like Ali Martinez point out that similar oversold conditions in the past have led to price rebounds, potentially pushing ADA back up to between $0.80 and $1.30—if Bitcoin remains stable.
Why it matters
An oversold RSI often signals a short-term price recovery. However, for Cardano to bounce back, Bitcoin needs to hold above $100,000, and large holders (whales) need to slow down their selling. The $0.60 price level is now a key test for traders’ confidence. (U.Today)
2. Whales Sell 350 Million ADA (October 17, 2025)
What happened?
Big Cardano holders, with wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA, sold 350 million tokens—worth about $217 million—over a week. This reduced their share to 10% of all ADA in circulation. This large sell-off caused panic among smaller investors, though ADA briefly bounced back to $0.63 before falling again. Data shows a 45% increase in ADA moving to exchanges, which could lead to more selling if liquidations continue.
Why it matters
This is a negative sign for Cardano in the short term because whale selling puts downward pressure on the price and shakes investor confidence. However, this redistribution might help clear out overleveraged positions, potentially setting the stage for healthier growth if demand picks up. (Cryptopotato)
3. Midnight Network Launch Coming Soon (September 8, 2025)
What happened?
Cardano is launching the Midnight Network in November, a sidechain focused on privacy. ADA holders will receive a free airdrop of the new NIGHT token. This network uses advanced technology called zero-knowledge proofs to keep smart contract details confidential, which is attractive for businesses. Google Cloud will support the infrastructure, and Franklin Templeton’s involvement shows growing institutional interest.
Why it matters
This is a positive development for Cardano’s long-term outlook. Midnight opens up new opportunities in regulated industries like finance and healthcare. The NIGHT token airdrop may encourage people to hold ADA, though short-term price movements will still depend on the overall crypto market. (Cardanians_io)
Conclusion
Cardano is facing short-term challenges from large holder sell-offs and a broader market downturn. However, important upgrades like the Midnight Network and oversold technical indicators offer hope for recovery. ADA’s future largely depends on Bitcoin’s stability, but its focus on building institutional-grade technology could help it bounce back when market conditions improve. The key question remains: Will the $0.60 support level hold long enough for positive factors to overcome selling pressure?
What is expected in the development of ADA?
Cardano’s upcoming plans focus on improving its technology, meeting regulatory standards, and growing its ecosystem.
- Grayscale ETF Decision (October 26, 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide whether to approve the first U.S. spot Cardano ETF.
- ISO 20022 Compliance (November 22, 2025) – Cardano will adopt a new global banking messaging standard to better connect with traditional finance.
- Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025) – A key update to improve transaction speed and efficiency on the network.
- Project Acropolis (Q1 2026) – A redesign of Cardano’s core software to make it easier for developers to build on the platform.
- Real-World Assets (RWA) Initiative (2025–2026) – A $10 million+ project to bring real-world assets onto Cardano’s blockchain.
Deep Dive
1. Grayscale ETF Decision (October 26, 2025)
What’s happening: The SEC will decide whether to approve Grayscale’s proposal for a Cardano ETF. If approved, this would allow Cardano (ADA) to be traded in a regulated U.S. market, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Why it matters: Approval could attract large institutional investors and increase liquidity for ADA, which is positive for its price and adoption. However, if the SEC delays or rejects the ETF, it could temporarily slow down enthusiasm around Cardano (CoinMarketCap).
2. ISO 20022 Compliance (November 22, 2025)
What’s happening: Cardano will adopt ISO 20022, a global messaging standard used by banks worldwide. This helps Cardano connect more smoothly with traditional financial systems.
Why it matters: This move could encourage banks and financial institutions to use Cardano’s blockchain, potentially increasing its adoption. The impact depends on how widely banks adopt this standard. Notably, large holders accumulated 140 million ADA in October 2025, showing confidence (Bitcoinist).
3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q4 2025)
What’s happening: Cardano will roll out Ouroboros Leios, an important upgrade designed to increase the number of transactions the network can handle without sacrificing security or decentralization. This upgrade is part of a $71 million community-funded plan.
Why it matters: This upgrade addresses past concerns about Cardano’s transaction speed and scalability, making the network more competitive. Founder Charles Hoskinson described it as “competitively necessary” (Cardanians.io).
4. Project Acropolis (Q1 2026)
What’s happening: Cardano will redesign its node software to make it more modular and easier for developers to work with. This project is funded by treasury allocations made in August 2025.
Why it matters: Simplifying the development process helps attract more developers and speeds up future improvements. While this is positive for Cardano’s long-term growth, there is some risk of delays in execution (CoinMarketCap).
5. Real-World Assets (RWA) Initiative (2025–2026)
What’s happening: The Cardano Foundation is launching a $10 million+ initiative to bring real-world assets, like property or commodities, onto the blockchain.
Why it matters: Tokenizing real-world assets expands Cardano’s use cases beyond decentralized finance (DeFi), making it more practical for everyday applications. Success depends on forming strong partnerships and navigating regulatory requirements (Binance).
Conclusion
Cardano’s upcoming roadmap combines important technical upgrades with strategic moves to increase adoption and compliance. The SEC’s ETF decision and ISO 20022 integration could boost short-term interest, while upgrades like Ouroboros Leios and Project Acropolis aim to strengthen Cardano’s technology for the future. With growing interest from large investors and developers, how regulatory changes and competition will influence ADA’s path remains an important question.
What updates are there in the ADA code base?
Cardano’s technology is moving forward with important upgrades, new developer tools, and key community decisions.
- Core Protocol Funding Approved (August 4, 2025) – The community agreed to invest $71 million to improve scalability and interoperability.
- CNCLI v6.6.0 Released (August 4, 2025) – New tools for stake pool operators to help the network run more smoothly.
- Ouroboros Leios Speed-Up (September 8, 2025) – Fast-tracking a new consensus protocol to handle more transactions quickly.
Deep Dive
1. Core Protocol Funding Approved (August 4, 2025)
What happened: Cardano’s community voted to allocate $71 million from its treasury to support a year of core development. This includes work on Hydra, a Layer-2 solution that helps the network scale, and Ouroboros Leios, an upgrade to the system that confirms transactions.
This funding decision was made through Cardano’s on-chain governance, meaning the community directly controls how funds are spent. Payments will be made based on reaching specific goals, with a group called Intersect checking progress. This approach helps ensure the project stays on track and improves Cardano’s ability to grow and support developers.
Why it matters: This is good news for ADA holders because it supports ongoing innovation, which could lead to faster transactions and attract more developers to the platform. (Source)
2. CNCLI v6.6.0 Released (August 4, 2025)
What happened: CNCLI, a command-line tool used by stake pool operators (the people who help run the Cardano network), got an update. This version improves how blocks are produced and how the network stays in sync.
The update reduces delays in spreading new blocks and handles errors better, making the network more reliable as it grows.
Why it matters: While this doesn’t directly affect ADA’s price, it’s important for keeping the network stable and efficient for everyone using Cardano. (Source)
3. Ouroboros Leios Speed-Up (September 8, 2025)
What happened: Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, announced speeding up the rollout of Ouroboros Leios. This upgrade uses advanced cryptography (recursive SNARKs) to bundle transactions together, allowing the network to process thousands of transactions per second.
This helps Cardano compete with other blockchains by improving scalability without sacrificing decentralization.
Why it matters: This is positive for ADA because faster transaction processing could make Cardano more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and businesses. (Source)
Conclusion
Cardano is making steady progress through community-backed funding, better tools, and upgrades to its core technology. While short-term price changes are normal, these improvements aim to strengthen Cardano’s position in the blockchain space. The big question is how soon Hydra and Leios will lead to noticeable growth on the network.