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Why did the price of ADA fall?

Cardano (ADA) dropped 4.7% in the last 24 hours, performing worse than the overall crypto market, which fell 3.2%. This decline is driven by negative technical signals, weakness across altcoins, and large investors (whales) buying but not enough to offset general market caution.

  1. Technical Breakdown – ADA fell below important support levels.
  2. Altcoin Liquidity Crunch – Selling pressure is increasing across the altcoin market.
  3. Whale Activity – Big investors are buying, but it’s not enough to stop the downward trend.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview: ADA’s price dropped below a key pattern between $0.64 and $0.67, triggering automatic sell orders. Recent price movements show bearish signs:

What this means: Traders using technical analysis saw this breakdown as a signal to sell, increasing downward pressure. Lower trading volume (down 15% from the previous day) suggests fewer buyers stepping in to support the price.

2. Altcoin Liquidity Crunch (Negative Impact)

Overview: Altcoins like ADA are facing broader market challenges:

What this means: ADA’s bigger drop compared to Bitcoin reflects a wider sell-off in altcoins. Analysts say liquidity (the ease of buying and selling) in altcoins is as low as it was after the FTX crisis, with many retail investors stepping back. For more details, see this CoinMarketCap article.

3. Whale Accumulation vs. Retail Selling (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Large investors bought about 140 million ADA (around $90 million) over three days, but retail investors sold more in the short term:

What this means: While whales are buying strategically, it hasn’t been enough to stop the overall negative trend. The upcoming Midnight mainnet upgrade, which focuses on privacy features, is a positive long-term factor but hasn’t influenced prices recently.

Conclusion

ADA’s recent price drop is due to a combination of technical sell signals, weakness in the altcoin market, and cautious behavior from big investors. Although whales are buying, retail traders and automated trading systems have increased selling pressure.

Key to watch: Will ADA hold the $0.61 support level, or could it fall further to between $0.50 and $0.55? Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s stability and ADA’s daily closing price compared to its 200-day moving average ($0.7413).

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano is working to improve its technology while facing challenges in the broader altcoin market.

  1. $71M Network Upgrades – Important improvements to the Cardano network could increase its usefulness (positive sign)
  2. ETF Approval Decision – The SEC will decide by October 26, 2025, which could affect institutional interest (uncertain outcome)
  3. Altcoin Market Pressure – Overall weakness in altcoins is making it harder for Cardano to recover (negative sign)

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Treasury Funding (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
On August 3, 2025, Cardano’s community approved a $71 million budget (96 million ADA) to fund key upgrades like Hydra, which helps the network handle more transactions, and improvements to its consensus system called Ouroboros Leios. These funds will be released in stages, controlled by smart contracts, with monthly reports to keep things transparent (Cardano Community).

What this means:
These upgrades aim to fix Cardano’s past issues with scaling, making it more attractive for developers and decentralized apps (dApps). For example, the Alonzo upgrade in 2021, which introduced smart contracts, led to a 137% increase in ADA’s price. However, delays in the rollout of Leios (already postponed twice since 2023) could slow down progress and reduce enthusiasm.

2. ETF Prospects & Regulatory Changes (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
Grayscale’s application for a spot ADA ETF is awaiting a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by October 26, 2025. Current market odds suggest a 75% chance of approval. Recently, the SEC classified ADA as a commodity under the Clarity Act passed in July, which lowers some regulatory barriers (Bloomberg).

What this means:
If approved, the ETF could bring more institutional investors to ADA, similar to how Bitcoin’s price jumped 72% after its ETF approval in 2024. However, ADA’s recent 28% drop in a month shows some market skepticism. If the ETF is rejected, it could lead to further price declines, especially since ADA is already down 82% from its all-time high of $3.09.

3. Altcoin Market Challenges (Negative Outlook)

Overview:
Altcoins, including Cardano, are struggling as their share of the total crypto market dropped to a low of 28.24% on October 21, 2025. ADA’s price fell 4.2% last week, worse than Bitcoin’s 2.97% drop. The sector faces issues like lower valuations and massive liquidations of $1.56 trillion in derivatives in October (CryptoPotato).

What this means:
Cardano’s price is closely linked to other altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), which have also seen significant monthly losses (-20% and -15%, respectively). This makes ADA vulnerable as investors move money back into Bitcoin. Additionally, fewer active users (-40% since July) and lower trading volume (-15% year-over-year) suggest weakening interest from everyday investors.

Conclusion

Cardano’s future price depends on successfully rolling out its upgrades to stand out from other struggling altcoins. The upcoming ETF decision could help boost confidence, but if ADA falls below the $0.55 support level (based on Fibonacci retracement), it may trigger more selling. The big question is whether the $71 million upgrade plan will stabilize Cardano before the ETF verdict arrives in October.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What are people saying about ADA?

The Cardano community is caught between hopeful patience and lively debate. Here’s what’s making waves right now:

  1. Breakout predictions – Experts are watching for ADA to hit $2.30 if it breaks through key resistance levels.
  2. Network growth – Over 110 million transactions have been processed, even as the price shows some weakness.
  3. Governance debates – Proposals to exchange ADA for stablecoins have sparked controversy among holders.

Deep Dive

1. @kanetrujillo: "Cardano isn’t dead. It’s just loading the next era" bullish

"⚙️ $ADA"
– @kanetjillo (12.4K followers · 38K impressions · 2025-10-18 16:11 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This shows strong confidence in Cardano’s steady development, even though the price has dropped about 28% in the past month. The community is optimistic about upcoming upgrades like Leios, which promises to speed up transactions by over 37 times.

2. @Cardanians_io: "1.3M staking addresses signal strength" mixed

"Decentralization vs ETF hype – community debates priorities"
– @Cardanians_io (89K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-05 11:16 UTC)
View original post
What this means: The sentiment is mixed. On one hand, a record 62% of ADA supply is staked, showing strong network participation. On the other hand, some proposals suggest moving ADA into Bitcoin or stablecoins, which some see as weakening Cardano’s value, while others view it as a smart way to diversify.

3. CoinMarketCap Community: "Falling wedge targets $2.30" bullish

Technical analysis points to a potential 155% price increase if ADA stays above $0.89. This is supported by a 72% rise in decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, now at $400 million, and strong open interest at $1.74 billion. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 76, indicating the asset might be overbought.
– Posted 2025-07-22 15:43 UTC · 1,240 votes
What this means: Traders are optimistic based on chart patterns, but broader market risks, like a nearly 10% monthly drop in total crypto market value, could delay a breakout.

Conclusion

The overall view on Cardano is mixed. People are positive about the technology and network growth but cautious about internal disagreements and wider economic challenges. The network now has 5.4 million wallets, growing by 100,000 each month, yet the price is still down about 4% daily. Keep an eye on the $0.62 resistance level this week — if ADA closes above it, that could confirm bullish trends. If not, the recent 28% monthly decline might continue. The big question remains: Is steady accumulation better than chasing hype? ADA’s next moves will provide the answer.


What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano is making progress with technology upgrades and hopes for clearer regulations, even as challenges persist for alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). Here are the key updates:

  1. Hydra Throughput Breakthrough (October 9, 2025) – Cardano’s network handled over 1 million transactions per second during testing, showing a big step forward in speed.
  2. Grayscale ETF Decision Coming (October 26, 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on a new Cardano-focused investment fund, which could bring more institutional investors.
  3. Wanchain Cross-Chain Expansion (October 7, 2025) – Wanchain connected Bitcoin and Ethereum to Cardano, helping increase liquidity for Cardano’s decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.

Deep Dive

1. Hydra Throughput Breakthrough (October 9, 2025)

What happened:
Cardano’s Hydra, a technology designed to speed up transactions, successfully processed over 1 million transactions per second during a stress test, handling 14 billion transactions in total. This is a major improvement in Cardano’s ability to scale and compete with other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum.

Why it matters:
This upgrade could make Cardano more attractive to developers building decentralized apps (dApps) that need fast and reliable networks. However, the real test will be whether more users and projects start using Cardano after this upgrade, which can be measured by metrics like total value locked (TVL) and active users.
(CoinDesk)

2. Grayscale ETF Decision Coming (October 26, 2025)

What happened:
The SEC is set to decide on Grayscale’s proposal for a Cardano spot ETF (exchange-traded fund) by October 26. Current market predictions show an 87% chance of approval, up from 60% in August, partly because Cardano was recently recognized as a “mature blockchain” under new regulations.

Why it matters:
If approved, this ETF could bring more institutional money into Cardano, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. On the other hand, if the SEC rejects it, Cardano’s price could face further declines. Right now, Cardano’s price is down 35% from its peak earlier this year, reflecting a tough market for altcoins.
(CryptoPotato)

3. Wanchain Cross-Chain Expansion (October 7, 2025)

What happened:
Wanchain, a platform that connects different blockchains, added Cardano to its network. This allows over $90 million worth of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC tokens to move onto Cardano’s network. Wanchain supports 14 blockchains and aims to increase liquidity for Cardano’s DeFi platforms like Minswap.

Why it matters:
This development improves Cardano’s ability to work with other blockchains, reducing the need for wrapped tokens or centralized exchanges. However, Cardano still faces competition from other bridge technologies and has a smaller amount of locked value ($1.4 billion) compared to Ethereum’s $48 billion, which could slow adoption.
(Wanchain)

Conclusion

Cardano is advancing with important technology upgrades and potential regulatory approvals, but it faces a challenging environment for altcoins overall. The Hydra upgrade and the upcoming ETF decision could be key drivers for Cardano’s growth. The big question remains whether the SEC’s decision on October 26 will help renew interest in Cardano as a “digital commodity.”


What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s development plan focuses on improving scalability, practical use cases, and community-driven governance.

  1. Midnight Glacier Drop (Nov 2025) – A cross-chain airdrop distributing NIGHT tokens to over 37 million wallets.
  2. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – A crypto debit card supporting ADA, Bitcoin, and stablecoins.
  3. Core Protocol Upgrades (2025-2026) – Updates including Leios consensus, Hydra scaling, and more decentralized governance.
  4. RWA Expansion (2026) – Tokenizing $10 million in real-world assets through a partnership with MembersCap.

Deep Dive

1. Midnight Glacier Drop (Nov 2025)

Overview:
Cardano’s privacy-focused Midnight sidechain will distribute NIGHT (governance) and DUST (privacy) tokens to more than 37 million wallets across eight blockchains, including Solana and Bitcoin (Cardanians_io). The claim window closes 26 days after launch.

What this means:
This is positive for ADA because it increases exposure across different blockchains and encourages new users to join. However, privacy features and the airdrop process may attract regulatory attention.

2. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Cardano will introduce a physical and virtual debit card that lets users spend crypto through Apple Pay and Google Pay while keeping control of their funds. It will support ADA, Bitcoin, USDC, and Solana (Cardanians_io).

What this means:
This move could boost adoption by making it easier to use crypto for everyday purchases. Its success depends on how many merchants accept the card and regulatory approval for use worldwide.

3. Core Protocol Upgrades (2025-2026)

Overview:
With $71 million approved by the community, Cardano will fund key upgrades:

What this means:
These upgrades are promising for Cardano’s future, though delays could affect market sentiment. The milestone-based funding approach promotes accountability but might slow progress.

4. RWA Expansion (2026)

Overview:
The Cardano Foundation plans to tokenize $10 million worth of real-world assets like commodities through MembersCap, using programmable token standards CIP-0113 and CIP-0143 (Binance News).

What this means:
This is encouraging for attracting institutional investors but depends on clear regulations around tokenized real-world assets. Early efforts will focus on emerging markets, such as India’s granite industry.

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap carefully balances technical improvements (Leios, Hydra) with practical applications (real-world assets, payment cards) and evolving governance. The upcoming Midnight airdrop and the ETF decision deadline on October 26 could cause short-term market swings. Will Cardano’s cross-chain capabilities through Midnight outperform Ethereum’s modular ecosystem competition?


What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano is making important updates focused on improving scalability, governance, and tools for developers.

  1. Core Protocol Funding Approved (August 4, 2025) – $71 million from Cardano’s treasury will fund upgrades like Hydra, Leios, and node improvements.
  2. Ouroboros Leios Speed-Up (September 8, 2025) – The new consensus protocol will be launched on the mainnet by 2026, earlier than planned.
  3. Hydra Layer-2 Scaling Live (July 11, 2025) – This upgrade increases transaction speed and lowers costs.

Deep Dive

1. Core Protocol Funding Approved (August 4, 2025)

Overview:
Cardano’s community voted to release $71 million from its treasury to support a year of core development work.

Key projects include:

Why it matters:
This funding is a positive sign for ADA because it speeds up important upgrades that could help Cardano grow, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi). The funds are released only after milestones are met, ensuring responsible use (Source).

2. Ouroboros Leios Speed-Up (September 8, 2025)

Overview:
Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, announced that Ouroboros Leios will be launched on the mainnet by 2026, two years earlier than originally planned.

This upgrade will:

Why it matters:
This is generally good news for ADA because it tackles long-standing issues with scaling. However, rushing the release carries some risks. If successful, Cardano could become a leading platform for large-scale decentralized applications (Source).

3. Hydra Layer-2 Scaling Live (July 11, 2025)

Overview:
Hydra is now live on the mainnet, enabling faster and cheaper transactions by processing them off the main blockchain.

Key stats:

Why it matters:
This is a strong positive for ADA because it supports use cases that require fast, low-cost payments, like gaming and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, improving overall user experience (Source).

Conclusion

Cardano is undergoing its biggest upgrade since the Shelley era, with community-backed projects focused on making the network faster and easier for developers. While price changes may be slow in the short term, these improvements set the stage for long-term growth. The big question remains: will the faster rollout of Ouroboros Leios meet expectations?