Why did the price of XTZ fall?

Tezos (XTZ) dropped 3.06% to $0.574 in the past 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.4%. Here are the main reasons:

1. Weak Technical Signals – The price is stuck below important moving averages and facing resistance at key Fibonacci levels.
2. Market Caution – Bitcoin’s share of the market is rising (59.36%) as investors grow more cautious (Fear & Greed Index at 29).
3. Mixed Momentum in DeFi – Despite some growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) on Tezos, total value locked (TVL) remains low at $70 million compared to competitors.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Outlook)

Tezos is trading below major moving averages, including the 7-day simple moving average ($0.59) and the 200-day exponential moving average ($0.73). Indicators like the MACD histogram (-0.0018) and RSI (37.36) show weak buying momentum. The Fibonacci retracement points to resistance around $0.70, making it hard for the price to rise above this level.

What this means: Traders see limited chances for price gains above $0.70, leading to stop-loss orders and profit-taking. The 24-hour trading volume increased by 45.3%, but the price still dropped, indicating selling pressure.

Key level to watch: If Tezos closes below $0.57, the current support, it could fall further toward $0.55.

2. Altcoin Selling Pressure (Negative Outlook)

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how altcoins perform compared to Bitcoin, is at 25 out of 100, signaling a Bitcoin-dominated market. The market share of “other” altcoins dropped from 29.49% to 28.06% over the past month. Tezos’ price has fallen 17.74% in the last 30 days, reflecting a broader shift of funds from altcoins into Bitcoin and stablecoins.

What this means: Investors are moving away from riskier altcoins like Tezos due to economic uncertainty. Tezos’ low turnover ratio (5.68%) means its price can be more volatile during sell-offs.

3. Mixed Signals from the Tezos Ecosystem (Neutral Outlook)

On the positive side, Tezos’ DeFi platform Etherlink increased its TVL to $70 million, and Tezos partnered with Google Cloud to encourage developers. However, these gains are offset by a bearish technical forecast for July 2025, which suggests a continued downward price channel (CCN). Additionally, there have been no major protocol upgrades or significant institutional investments recently.

What this means: While there are some positive developments, they aren’t strong enough to overcome the overall negative market sentiment.

Conclusion

Tezos’ recent price drop is due to weak technical indicators, a shift of funds away from altcoins, and a lack of strong catalysts. Although Etherlink’s growth shows promise for the future, traders are currently focused on reducing risk.

Key watch: Will Tezos hold the $0.57 support level, or will Bitcoin’s growing dominance push it down to $0.55? Keep an eye on Etherlink’s TVL and changes in Bitcoin dominance.

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What could affect the price of XTZ?

Tezos’ price outlook reflects a balance between growing ecosystem activity and challenges from the broader market.

1. Etherlink Layer 2 Adoption – DeFi total value locked (TVL) rose 22.5% quarter-over-quarter, supported by a partnership with Google Cloud (CoinJournal)
2. Technical Weakness – Price stuck in a downward trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.58 indicating potential overselling
3. Regulatory Support – Tokenized uranium custody through Hex Trust adds credibility to real-world asset (RWA) projects (Cointelegraph)

Deep Dive

1. Etherlink Ecosystem Growth (Positive for Price)

Overview:
Tezos’ Layer 2 solution, Etherlink, which is compatible with Ethereum’s technology, reached $70 million in TVL as of October 2025. This growth is fueled by partnerships like Google Cloud, which provides $200,000 in credits to developers, and integrations with platforms such as Curve and Superlend. The Seoul protocol upgrade in September 2025 improved security with institutional-grade multisignature wallets and made the system 63 times more efficient.

What this means:
More activity in decentralized finance (DeFi) can increase demand for Tezos’ native token, XTZ, both for transaction fees (“gas”) and staking. With over 20.5 million transactions on Etherlink, its usefulness is growing. However, to confirm a strong upward trend, TVL needs to consistently exceed $100 million.

2. Technical Downtrend Risks (Negative for Price)

Overview:
XTZ is trading at $0.57 as of Q3 2025, down 35% for the quarter and below important moving averages like the 200-day EMA at $0.66. Since July 2025, the price has been moving within a descending channel, showing lower highs. Support at $0.55 is a key level, while the RSI at 38 suggests the token may be oversold but without clear signs of a rebound.

What this means:
Until XTZ can break above $0.70 (a key Fibonacci retracement level), sellers are likely in control. If the price falls below $0.55, automated selling could push it down further toward $0.43, consistent with recent 60-day losses of about 33%.

3. Real-World Asset Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Tezos is working with Uranium.io and Hex Trust to manage tokenized uranium (xU3O8), tapping into the $3.5 trillion real-world asset market. However, Ethereum and Polygon remain strong competitors in institutional asset tokenization.

What this means:
If Tezos can successfully grow its real-world asset projects, it could attract more conservative investors. Still, XTZ’s price impact depends on surpassing $100 million in verified tokenized assets.

Conclusion

Tezos’ price depends on Etherlink’s success in turning technical improvements into greater DeFi market share, while avoiding a drop below $0.55. The $0.70 to $0.75 range is critical—will real-world asset partnerships be enough to counteract bearish market trends favoring Bitcoin? Watch for October’s TVL growth and institutional inflows of tokenized uranium (xU3O8) to get a clearer picture.

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What are people saying about XTZ?

Talk around Tezos (XTZ) is swinging between excitement over big gains and concerns about the price being too high. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Etherlink’s DeFi growth is driving positive momentum
2. Traders are debating if the recent 60%+ price jumps can last
3. Data shows large investors (whales) are buying more
4. Technical indicators suggest the coin might be overbought – a price drop could be coming

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: Etherlink Layer 2 Adoption Looks Strong

"XTZ’s 39% price jump is linked to $11 million flowing into Midas on Etherlink. Moving averages turned positive for the first time since February."
– @johnmorganFL (89K followers · 210K impressions · 2025-07-20 03:07 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for Tezos because Etherlink’s advanced DeFi products show that Tezos’ Layer 2 solutions are scaling well. This is attracting serious investors.

2. @BRONDOR: Technical Breakout Excitement

"Price bounced from $0.90 to $1.13 – if it stays above $1.10, it could reach $1.40. This isn’t just hype; altcoins are really moving."
– @BRONDOR (12K followers · 84K impressions · 2025-07-20 09:34 UTC)
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What this means: The 64% rally shows strong technical momentum, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 91 signals the price might be too high and some profit-taking could happen near $1.20.

3. AMBCrypto: Risks from Derivatives-Driven Rally

Reports a 51.2% increase in open interest but notes a mismatch with actual buying: "The rally is mostly driven by futures trading, not real buying – RSI at 84 warns of a pullback to $0.75."
– AMBCrypto (Verified Publisher · 430K monthly readers · 2025-07-20)
What this means: Short-term outlook is cautious because leveraged trading dominates. If the price falls below $1.00, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced selling.

4. Tezos Team: Ecosystem Growth Steady

Announced live tracking of "scalability, decentralization, and developer activity" through Chainspect – Total Value Locked (TVL) rose 8% weekly to $45.4 million.
– @tezos (1.2M followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-10-16 13:02 UTC)
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What this means: Neutral outlook – infrastructure improvements support long-term growth but don’t provide immediate price boosts, especially with overall market caution (CMC Fear Index: 29/100).

Conclusion

The overall view on Tezos (XTZ) is mixed. Positive news about Etherlink’s growing TVL is balanced by concerns about the price being stretched and risks from derivatives trading. Watch the $1.04 Fibonacci level closely: closing above it daily could push the price toward $1.40, while failing here might lead to a 20-30% drop. Keep an eye on Etherlink’s TVL compared to XTZ funding rates for signs of divergence.

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What is the latest news about XTZ?

Tezos is showing mixed signals right now. New partnerships and growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) are positive signs, but technical indicators suggest some caution. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Ecosystem Growth & Google Cloud Partnership (October 22, 2025) – Total value locked (TVL) jumps as Etherlink joins Google’s Web3 Startup Program.
2. Positive Price Targets (October 22, 2025) – Experts see potential for Tezos (XTZ) to reach $1.50 if it stays above $0.70.
3. Risk of Price Drop (October 16, 2025) – Sellers are in control, and XTZ might test support at $0.55.

In-Depth Look

1. Ecosystem Growth & Google Cloud Partnership (October 22, 2025)

Summary:
The Tezos Foundation teamed up with the Museum of the Moving Image to highlight blockchain’s impact on digital art. Meanwhile, Etherlink, a layer 2 solution compatible with Ethereum on Tezos, joined Google Cloud’s Web3 Startup Program. This gives developers $200,000 in cloud credits, helping Etherlink’s TVL grow to $70.14 million—a 22.5% increase from last quarter.

Why it matters:
This partnership is a big plus for Tezos. It brings in strong infrastructure support and attracts developers, which helps Tezos grow in the business world. More activity on the network (over 20.5 million transactions) could help reduce price swings over time.
(Source: CoinJournal)

2. Positive Price Targets (October 22, 2025)

Summary:
XTZ’s price rose 4.4% to $0.60, with analysts spotting a possible breakout from a downward wedge pattern. If XTZ can stay above $0.70, it might rally to $1.50, based on past resistance levels.

Why it matters:
This hopeful outlook depends on Etherlink’s continued growth and more people using DeFi on Tezos. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.18 (on a 4-hour chart) shows the momentum is neutral, so we need to see strong trading volume to confirm a real upward move.
(Source: CoinJournal)

3. Risk of Price Drop (October 16, 2025)

Summary:
XTZ is stuck in a downward price channel, with sellers pushing back at $0.61. Indicators like the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) at -0.13 and RSI at 40 suggest demand is weakening. If the $0.55 support level breaks, the price could fall further.

Why it matters:
This is a short-term warning sign, reflecting overall fear in the crypto market (Fear & Greed Index at 29). A drop below $0.55 could cancel out the positive price setups, though the low RSI might attract buyers looking for a bargain.
(Source: CCN)

Conclusion

Tezos is at a crossroads. Its growing ecosystem and new partnerships, especially with Google Cloud and Etherlink, are promising. But technical signals show some risks ahead. The big question is whether the positive momentum can overcome the current downward pressure on the price.

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What is expected in the development of XTZ?

Tezos’ roadmap is focused on improving scalability, expanding decentralized finance (DeFi), and integrating real-world assets.

1. Etherlink Enhancements (Q4 2025) – Upgrades to a Layer 2 solution compatible with Ethereum, improving cross-chain liquidity.
2. Tezos X Rollout (2026) – Launch of a modular blockchain supporting popular programming languages.
3. Tokenized Uranium Expansion (2026) – Growing real-world asset adoption through uranium.io.
4. Liquidity Mining Program (TBD) – Community incentives to boost liquidity for XTZ/tzBTC pools.

Deep Dive

1. Etherlink Enhancements (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Etherlink is Tezos’ Layer 2 solution that works with Ethereum’s technology, aiming to make it easier and cheaper to move assets between blockchains. Partnerships with Curve Finance and Oku (a Uniswap v3 aggregator) have helped increase total value locked (TVL) to $47.7 million as of August 2025 (The Defiant).

What this means:
This is positive for Tezos (XTZ) adoption because it attracts Ethereum users looking for lower fees. However, some risks remain if incentive programs like the $3 million Apple Farm rewards end after 2025.

2. Tezos X Rollout (2026)

Overview:
Tezos X, announced at TezDev 2025, introduces a modular blockchain design that separates key functions like execution, settlement, and consensus. It supports mainstream programming languages like JavaScript and Python, and includes “Tezlink,” which allows developers to easily build on Etherlink (Arthur Breitman, TezDev 2025).

What this means:
This could attract more developers and enterprise projects, such as gaming with titles like ReaperActualW3. Still, it faces challenges competing with Ethereum’s established network.

3. Tokenized Uranium Expansion (2026)

Overview:
After launching uranium.io in May 2025, Tezos plans to expand its real-world asset offerings by tokenizing uranium reserves. This project uses regulated custody services from Hex Trust and targets institutional investors (CryptoSlate).

What this means:
This is a high-risk, high-reward move. Success depends on demand for uranium—especially for AI energy needs—and navigating complex nuclear regulations.

4. Liquidity Mining Program (TBD)

Overview:
A governance proposal (TZIP-025) suggests minting 420,000 XTZ annually (about 0.05% of supply) to encourage liquidity in XTZ/tzBTC pools. The community is debating how to balance potential inflation with DeFi growth (Tezos Agora Forum).

What this means:
In the short term, this could put downward pressure on XTZ if supply increases too much. But if it attracts traders and stabilizes price swings, it could be positive long term.

Conclusion

Tezos is focusing on building a flexible infrastructure (Etherlink), making development easier (Tezos X), and exploring unique real-world assets (uranium). While these efforts align with broader crypto trends, challenges remain—especially around regulated assets. The success of these initiatives will depend on how quickly Tezos’ governance can adapt to stay competitive.

What updates are there in the XTZ code base?

Tezos (XTZ) keeps improving its technology through regular updates that make the network faster, safer, and easier to use.

1. Protocol-Native Multisigs (September 19, 2025) – Adds strong, built-in security for accounts that require multiple approvals.
2. Rio Upgrade (May 1, 2025) – Speeds up staking and improves scaling for Layer 2 solutions.
3. Fast Withdrawals (June 27, 2025) – Cuts withdrawal times on Etherlink from 15 days to about 1 minute.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol-Native Multisigs (September 19, 2025)

What it is: The Seoul upgrade introduced a new feature called protocol-native multisignatures (multisigs). This means accounts can now require multiple people to approve transactions directly on the Tezos blockchain, without needing outside tools.

It uses a technology called BLS signatures to combine multiple approvals into one, making the process faster and more secure. This is especially helpful for institutions managing large amounts of assets, as it reduces risks and makes following regulations easier.

Why it matters: This upgrade is great news for Tezos because it makes the platform more attractive to businesses and organizations that need strong security. It also lowers costs and complexity for users by removing the need for third-party services.
(Source)

2. Rio Upgrade (May 1, 2025)

What it is: The Rio upgrade is Tezos’ 18th major update. It shortened staking cycles to just one day and changed how rewards are given to encourage participation in the Data Availability Layer (DAL), which supports scaling solutions.

It also made the network more reliable by penalizing validators (called bakers) who don’t do their job properly, ensuring blocks are produced consistently.

Why it matters: In the short term, this upgrade doesn’t drastically change things, but it sets the stage for future growth. Faster staking cycles mean users can access their staked funds more quickly, and stricter rules for validators improve network stability. The focus on DAL helps Tezos scale Layer 2 solutions like Etherlink.
(Source)

3. Fast Withdrawals (June 27, 2025)

What it is: Etherlink, a Layer 2 solution on Tezos, introduced fast withdrawals using a decentralized liquidity bridge. This cut withdrawal times from 15 days down to about 1 minute.

Smart contracts now automatically provide liquidity, so users can access their funds instantly without relying on centralized intermediaries. This keeps the system decentralized and secure.

Why it matters: This is a big win for Tezos users, especially those involved in decentralized finance (DeFi). Faster withdrawals mean traders can move money between the main Tezos network and Layer 2 quickly, reducing risk from market changes.
(Source)

Conclusion

Tezos continues to focus on upgrades that improve speed, security, and user experience. The Seoul multisig feature and Etherlink’s fast withdrawals show a clear push toward attracting institutions and DeFi users. Meanwhile, the Rio upgrade lays the groundwork for future Layer 2 growth. The big question is whether Tezos can use these improvements to stand out and attract more developers in the competitive smart-contract space.