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What could affect the price of SUI?

Sui is balancing strong ecosystem growth with uncertainty from the broader economy.

  1. ETF Approval (Positive Outlook) – The SEC’s upcoming decision on spot SUI ETFs could spark rallies similar to what Bitcoin and Ethereum saw in 2024.
  2. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts (Mixed Effects) – Lower interest rates might increase crypto investments, but SUI’s recent 27% drop over 60 days shows it’s sensitive to market risk.
  3. Ecosystem Expansion (Positive Outlook) – With over $2 billion in total value locked (TVL) and new DeFi projects like Suilend’s yield strategies, Sui is gaining real traction.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Spot ETF Prospects (Positive Impact)

Background:
The SEC is streamlining the ETF approval process starting September 2025, speeding up decisions. Companies like 21Shares and Canary Capital have filed for spot SUI ETFs. Historically, Bitcoin’s price rose 21% after ETF approvals, and Ethereum surged 76% in 2024 due to similar institutional interest.

What this means for SUI:
If approved, SUI would become accessible to traditional investors through regulated ETFs, likely increasing demand and price. If the SEC delays or rejects these ETFs, SUI’s recent 19% drop over the past week could continue, especially given current bearish technical indicators like MACD and RSI.
Source: CoinDesk

2. Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts (Mixed Effects)

Background:
On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%, the first cut since 2024. SUI initially jumped 9% but then lost ground as the overall crypto market weakened by 4.37% in 24 hours.

What this means for SUI:
Lower rates can encourage investors to take more risks, potentially benefiting crypto assets. However, since SUI’s price often moves alongside Bitcoin (which holds about 58% market dominance), Bitcoin’s performance will heavily influence SUI. The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 72, indicating that if Bitcoin stabilizes, investors might shift more funds into altcoins like SUI.

3. Ecosystem Growth and Competition (Positive Outlook)

Background:
Sui’s total value locked (TVL) reached $2.19 billion in July 2025, a 46% increase from the previous quarter. This growth is driven by DeFi platforms such as Suilend, which holds $675 million in TVL, and new Bitcoin DeFi integrations. However, competitors like Solana are upgrading their networks with faster technology, such as the Alpenglow upgrade, which is 100 times faster.

What this means for SUI:
Partnerships with real-world asset platforms like MMT Finance’s cross-chain decentralized exchange (DEX) and gaming adoption through devices like SuiPlay 0X1 could help SUI stand out. However, if SUI cannot maintain high transaction speeds (over 100,000 transactions per second), it risks losing ground to faster rivals.
Source: The Block

Conclusion

SUI’s price outlook depends largely on ETF approvals that could boost its growing DeFi ecosystem, while facing challenges from economic factors and competition among Layer 1 blockchains. The $3.12 support level held on September 25, but reclaiming the 50-day moving average at $3.49 is key for a bullish trend.

Key metric to watch: Keep an eye on weekly net inflows into U.S. SUI ETFs (if approved) alongside Federal Reserve policies. Institutional adoption will need to outpace increases in circulating supply from token unlocks to sustain price growth.


What are people saying about SUI?

The Sui (SUI) community is feeling a mix of excitement about the ecosystem’s growth and concern over upcoming token releases. Here’s what’s trending right now:

  1. A $7 price target driven by adoption from a Swiss bank and inflows from stablecoins
  2. A $77 million token unlock raising worries about short-term selling pressure
  3. A 54% increase in developer activity despite a recent market slowdown

Deep Dive

1. $7 SUI Price Target Backed by Swiss Bank Adoption (Positive Outlook)

John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) shared that SUI could reach $7 as AMINA Bank starts offering custody services for SUI and Swiss institutions begin using its technology.

2. $77 Million Token Unlock Could Cause Price Drop (Cautious Outlook)

CryptoLifer33 (@CryptoLifer33) warned that the release of 58 million SUI tokens this week could push prices below $2.56 if demand doesn’t keep up.

3. Developer Growth Surges Despite Market Challenges (Positive Outlook)

The official Sui Network account (@SuiNetwork) reported a 54% increase in developer activity, while the broader blockchain industry saw a 20% decline.

Conclusion

Opinions on SUI are mixed. On one hand, institutional adoption and strong developer growth point to a solid foundation. On the other hand, token unlocks and price pressure create uncertainty. Traders are closely watching the $2.90 support level—if SUI holds above $3.10 after the September 21 token unlock, it could spark a move toward the $4.20 breakout level.


What is the latest news about SUI?

Sui is gaining attention thanks to ETF speculation and growth in its ecosystem. Here’s a quick look at the latest developments:

  1. ETF Momentum (September 23, 2025) – A new SEC rule makes it easier for SUI to become an ETF candidate, following paths similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  2. DeFi Growth (September 19, 2025) – Total Value Locked (TVL) on Sui’s network surpassed $2 billion, driven by gaming and memecoin activity.
  3. Fed Rate Cut Impact (September 18, 2025) – SUI’s price jumped 9% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.

In-Depth Look

1. ETF Momentum (September 23, 2025)

What happened:
On September 18, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) updated its rules to speed up approval for crypto ETFs. This means exchanges can list ETFs that meet certain standards without waiting for individual reviews. Sui was specifically mentioned in pending ETF applications alongside other well-known coins like Solana and Cardano. These applications have been under review since early 2025.

Why it matters:
If SUI becomes an approved ETF, it could attract more institutional investors, similar to what happened with Bitcoin when its ETF launched and prices jumped 21%. However, the SEC has been cautious with altcoins, and historically only about 35% of similar ETF applications have been approved (CoinJar). So, while promising, there’s still some uncertainty.

2. DeFi Growth (September 19, 2025)

What happened:
Sui’s Total Value Locked (TVL) — a measure of how much money is invested in its decentralized finance (DeFi) projects — passed $2 billion. This growth is largely thanks to projects like Walrus Protocol (which offers decentralized storage), Sweet Player X1 (a gaming platform), and a booming memecoin market. The NAVI Protocol leads lending with $534 million locked, and Suilend’s new Strategies product attracted $27 million in just two weeks.

Why it matters:
This shows that developers and users are actively building and using applications on Sui, which is a positive sign for the network’s future. The increase in stablecoins (digital currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar) on Sui, now over $1 billion, helps keep liquidity strong. However, memecoins make up 40% of trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which could lead to price swings if speculative interest fades (MEXC).

3. Fed Rate Cut Impact (September 18, 2025)

What happened:
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%, SUI’s price jumped 9% to $3.45 — its biggest one-day gain since August. This outpaced Bitcoin’s 1.7% and Ethereum’s 3.1% gains. However, SUI later gave back about half of those gains.

Why it matters:
Lower interest rates generally encourage investors to take more risks, which can boost cryptocurrencies. But despite this short-term boost, SUI’s price dropped 19% over the week and has been down 27% since July. This suggests that broader economic factors and technical price trends are still weighing on SUI.

Conclusion

Sui’s potential ETF approval and strong DeFi growth offer reasons for optimism. Institutional interest, including partnerships like Google’s AP2 and Nasdaq-listed SUIG, adds credibility. However, SUI remains sensitive to overall market volatility and regulatory challenges. The big question is: Will SUI’s chances of SEC ETF approval exceed 50% by the end of the year, or will regulatory hurdles slow down institutional adoption?


What is expected in the development of SUI?

Sui is making steady progress with these key updates:

  1. SuiNS .move Service (2025) – Makes it easier and safer for developers to find and use packages.
  2. Native Bridge Expansion (Q4 2025) – Supports moving assets across more blockchains beyond just Ethereum.
  3. Move 2024 Finalization (Q1 2026) – Fully adopts new Move programming language features for better coding.

In-Depth Look

1. SuiNS .move Service (2025)

What it is:
This update improves the Sui Name Service (.sui), creating a decentralized directory that connects easy-to-remember names to blockchain items like smart contracts and NFTs. This helps developers work more smoothly and reduces the need to use confusing long addresses.

Why it matters:
This is good news for SUI because it lowers the barrier for developers and builds more trust for users interacting with decentralized apps (dApps). However, if wallets and explorers don’t quickly support it, adoption could be slower.

2. Native Bridge Expansion (Q4 2025)

What it is:
After launching a bridge between Ethereum and Sui earlier in 2025, Sui plans to add bridges for Bitcoin, Solana, and other EVM-compatible blockchains. The focus is on secure, efficient cross-chain communication with lower transaction costs.

Why it matters:
This could attract more users and funds to Sui by making it easier to move assets across different blockchains. The impact depends on how well it competes with other bridges like Axelar. A key indicator to watch is the total value locked (TVL) through these bridges after launch.

3. Move 2024 Finalization (Q1 2026)

What it is:
This update fully implements new features in the Move programming language, such as enums and macros, which improve code safety and reuse. It completes the upgrade from Sui’s original Move version.

Why it matters:
In the long run, this strengthens Sui’s appeal to developers by making coding easier and more reliable. However, some projects might face short-term challenges updating their existing code.

Conclusion

Sui’s roadmap focuses on making development easier and expanding cross-chain capabilities to grow its ecosystem. While there are risks in delivering these technical upgrades, they support Sui’s vision of becoming a leading platform for fast, high-performance decentralized apps. It will be interesting to see how Sui’s unique Move language features help it compete with chains dominated by Ethereum’s technology.


What updates are there in the SUI code base?

Sui’s latest updates focus on making the platform more scalable, secure, and easier for developers to use.

  1. Testnet Security & Party Objects (June 29, 2025) – Added TLS encryption and new transaction types for DeFi and gaming.
  2. Move 2024 Compiler Upgrades (May 2025) – Introduced enums and simpler method syntax to improve smart contract coding.
  3. RPC 2.0 Transition (Q2 2025) – Switched from JSON-RPC to GraphQL for faster and more reliable data queries.

Deep Dive

1. Testnet Security & Party Objects (June 29, 2025)

Overview: The v1.51.2 testnet update made TLS encryption mandatory for validator communications, boosting security. It also introduced experimental “Party” objects, which allow more complex transactions like multi-signature approvals—useful for DeFi and gaming applications.

Developers also benefit from faster project setups thanks to improved tools like regex support for Move tests and optimized Git dependencies. Node operators need to update their configurations to use requester-pays storage buckets for syncing.

What this means: This update is a positive step for Sui. Enhanced security lowers the risk of attacks, and Party objects open doors for advanced DeFi and gaming features. Faster setup times help developers work more efficiently. (Source)

2. Move 2024 Compiler Upgrades (May 2025)

Overview: The Move 2024 upgrade modernizes Sui’s smart contract language by adding enums (custom data types like game states) and a cleaner method syntax to simplify coding.

The Sui Framework has been updated to Move 2024 while keeping backward compatibility. A migration guide is available to help developers transition smoothly without breaking existing contracts.

What this means: This update is neutral for Sui in the short term. While it makes coding easier and more flexible, developers will need some time to adjust. Over time, it strengthens Sui’s appeal as a developer-friendly blockchain. (Source)

3. RPC 2.0 Transition (Q2 2025)

Overview: Sui is replacing the older JSON-RPC system with GraphQL, which allows faster data queries and real-time updates. The new REST API and better type-checking help reduce errors when building decentralized apps (dApps).

JSON-RPC will be phased out by Q3 2025. Developers can try the new system now through Sui’s interactive demo.

What this means: This is a strong positive for Sui. Faster and more reliable data access supports complex dApps like high-frequency decentralized exchanges (DEXs). The gradual rollout helps avoid disruptions. (Source)

Conclusion

Sui’s codebase improvements focus on speed (with Mysticeti v2’s 400ms finality) and security (TLS encryption and a $10 million audit fund). With the Move 2024 upgrade and RPC 2.0 transition, Sui is positioning itself to attract developers building the next generation of DeFi and gaming apps. The big question remains: how will these upgrades affect Sui’s competition with blockchains like Solana and Aptos?


Why did the price of SUI fall?

SUI dropped 7.6% in the last 24 hours, falling to $3.14, during a wider crypto market selloff where the total market value fell by 4.25%. The main reasons for this decline are:

  1. Profit-Taking – SUI had an 85.69% gain over the past year, but its momentum is slowing down (RSI14 at 43.35).
  2. Sector Rotation – Investors are moving their money to newer projects, as shown by a 9% weekly drop in the Altcoin Season Index.
  3. Technical Breakdown – The price fell below its 50-day moving average ($3.49) and is now testing an important support level at $3.12.

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Risk-Off (Negative Impact)

The overall crypto market value dropped 4.25% to $3.75 trillion in 24 hours. Bitcoin’s share of the market increased to 58.25% as investors moved toward safer assets. SUI’s 7.6% drop was sharper than the market average, indicating specific challenges for this coin.

What this means: Investors are pulling back from mid-sized coins like SUI, which has lost 27.47% over the past 60 days. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainty about Federal Reserve policies are making traders cautious. SUI’s low liquidity (turnover ratio of 0.175) makes its price more volatile.

2. Profit-Taking After Recent Gains (Negative Impact)

Before this drop, SUI had gained 15.02% in the last 90 days. On September 18, news about the SEC’s ETF rules sparked a 9% jump due to increased interest from institutional investors.

What this means: The 7-day RSI at 36.22 indicates SUI is now oversold after a 20.33% weekly decline. Large investors likely sold some of their holdings near the $3.55 resistance level, triggering a chain reaction of selling. Data from derivatives markets shows $6.1 million in long position liquidations compared to $2.9 million in shorts on July 18, 2025, suggesting similar selling pressure may be happening again.

3. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

SUI’s price fell below its 30-day moving average ($3.49) and is currently testing the $3.12 support level, which corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The MACD indicator at -0.0352 confirms bearish momentum.

What this means: Although the oversold RSI suggests a possible bounce back, if the price stays below $3.12, it could trigger stop-loss orders pushing the price toward the psychological $3.00 level. For the trend to reverse, buyers need to push the price back above the $3.35 pivot point.

Conclusion

SUI’s recent price drop reflects broader market caution, profit-taking after ETF-related gains, and technical weakness. However, the network’s fundamentals remain solid, with over $2 billion in total value locked (TVL) and ongoing institutional ETF filings.

Key point to watch: Can SUI maintain support at $3.12 as Bitcoin’s dominance rises to 58.25%? Also, keep an eye on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for clues on overall market risk sentiment.