What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia (TIA) is making steady progress with several key updates planned:

1. Lotus Upgrade (Late July 2025) – Adds better cross-chain compatibility through Hyperlane and adjusts staking rewards.
2. Proof-of-Governance Model (Q4 2025) – Cuts token issuance from 5% to 0.25% to reduce inflation and better align incentives.
3. Blobstream on Ethereum (2026) – Brings Celestia’s data availability layer to Ethereum to help scale rollups.
4. Network Parameter Governance (Ongoing) – Community members vote on important settings like block size and rewards.

Deep Dive

1. Lotus Upgrade (Late July 2025)

What it is: The Lotus upgrade integrates Hyperlane, allowing TIA tokens to move between different blockchains more easily. It also lowers token inflation by about a third and changes staking so that rewards are locked based on how many tokens are vested.
Why it matters: This makes TIA more useful by expanding where it can be used. Lower inflation could make the token more valuable over time, but locking rewards might reduce how much users can trade in the short term.

2. Proof-of-Governance Model (Q4 2025)

What it is: Proposed by Celestia’s co-founder John Adler, this model drastically reduces new token creation from 5% annually to just 0.25%. The goal is to limit token dilution while keeping the network secure (CoinMarketCap).
Why it matters: This change could make TIA rarer and potentially more valuable in the long run. However, it depends on active community participation to work well, which carries some risk.

3. Blobstream on Ethereum (2026)

What it is: Blobstream will let Ethereum Layer 2 solutions use Celestia’s data availability services off-chain, helping these networks scale better. It competes with similar projects like EigenDA and Avail (CoinMarketCap).
Why it matters: If Ethereum rollups adopt Blobstream widely, it could boost demand for Celestia’s technology. But if Ethereum improves its own data availability, adoption might be slower.

4. Network Parameter Governance (Ongoing)

What it is: TIA token holders vote on important network settings such as block size (currently between 2 and 8 MB) and how community funds are spent. Recent votes focus on increasing transaction capacity.
Why it matters: This decentralized approach helps keep the community involved and aligned, but it can slow down decisions during urgent upgrades.

Conclusion

Celestia’s roadmap focuses on expanding its modular blockchain infrastructure, tightening token supply, and improving cross-chain capabilities. Near-term upgrades like Lotus aim to boost TIA’s practical use, while long-term success depends on how well Ethereum rollups adopt Celestia and how efficiently governance works. The big question: Can Hyperlane integration and lower inflation help TIA recover after losing over 90% of its value since its all-time high?

What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s recent software updates bring big improvements in scalability, cross-chain compatibility, and token economics.

1. Matcha Upgrade (October 2025) – Block size increased to 128MB and inflation lowered to 2.5%.
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Added cross-chain transfers with Hyperlane and cut TIA token issuance.

Deep Dive

1. Matcha Upgrade (October 2025)

Overview:
The Matcha upgrade allows much larger blocks—128MB, which is 16 times bigger than before—using a faster block propagation system targeting speeds of 1 GB per second. Inflation was also cut in half, from 5% to 2.5%, to make Celestia’s token (TIA) more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) uses.

Key Changes:

• Scalability: Block size limit raised to 128MB, data square size to 512, and max transaction size to 8MB.
• Tokenomics: Inflation reduced to 2.5% (CIP-41), and the minimum commission for validators increased to 10% to balance rewards.
• Cross-Chain: Removed restrictions on tokens for IBC and Hyperlane bridges, allowing any asset to move to Celestia (CIP-39).

What this means:
This is positive for TIA because bigger blocks can handle more applications and rollups, while lower inflation reduces token supply growth. The improved cross-chain support positions Celestia as a hub for assets moving across multiple blockchains.
(Source)

2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

Overview:
Lotus added Hyperlane to enable cross-chain transfers and changed staking rules to reduce TIA inflation by about a third.

Key Changes:

• Interoperability: Hyperlane SDK lets users transfer TIA tokens to Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum networks (CIP-34).
• Staking Rewards: Locked tokens now earn rewards proportional to their locked amount (CIP-31), and automatic reward claiming was turned off (CIP-30).
• Inflation: Annual token issuance dropped from 7.2% to roughly 5.0%, with a slower rate of inflation decrease (CIP-29).

What this means:
This update is neutral for TIA’s price: cross-chain features expand how TIA can be used, but locking rewards might reduce how much token holders trade in the short term. The lower inflation could help balance selling pressure from stakers.
(Source)

Conclusion

Celestia’s upgrades focus on improving scalability with Matcha and enhancing ecosystem connections with Lotus, supporting its vision as a modular blockchain platform. While cutting inflation aims to stabilize TIA’s value, the real impact depends on how developers use the new higher throughput and cross-chain capabilities. One key question remains: How will lower validator rewards affect network security as block sizes increase?

Why did the price of TIA fall?

Celestia (TIA) dropped 3.83% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.61%. The main reasons are selling pressure from token unlocks, weak technical signals, and a cautious market mood.

1. Token Unlock Pressure – $13.8 million worth of TIA tokens became available on October 5, with more scheduled to unlock this week.
2. Technical Weakness – The price hit resistance at $1.64 and is now trading below important moving averages.
3. Market Caution – Altcoins are generally weak as Bitcoin’s market share rises to 58.26%.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Sell Pressure (Negative Impact)

What happened:
On October 5, 9.62 million TIA tokens (valued at $13.8 million at $1.44 each) were released into the market as part of scheduled unlocks for investors and the team. Another 6.96 million TIA tokens (about $10 million) are set to unlock on October 12 (Tokenomist).

Why it matters:

• These unlocks increase the circulating supply by roughly 1.1% per month, putting downward pressure on the price.
• Early investors often sell unlocked tokens to take profits, especially since TIA’s price is down 72.6% compared to last year.
• The trading volume relative to market size is low (turnover ratio of 0.0885), meaning the market may struggle to absorb this extra supply without price drops.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on the October 12 unlock and wallet activity using blockchain explorers like MintScan to see if large sell-offs continue.

2. Technical Weakness (Negative Impact)

What happened:
TIA’s price couldn’t stay above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.50 or the Fibonacci retracement level at $1.47. The MACD indicator turned negative, showing weakening momentum.

Why it matters:

• The price was rejected at a key resistance level of $1.64, which was a previous high from July 9.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.06, which means the token isn’t oversold yet, so there’s room for the price to fall further.
• The next support level is at $1.34 (a low from September), while the longer-term 200-day SMA is much higher at $2.10.

Key level to watch:
If the price closes below $1.40 on a daily basis, it could trigger stop-loss orders and push the price down toward yearly lows.

3. Altcoin Weakness (Mixed Impact)

What happened:
The Altcoin Season Index dropped 12.9% this week to 54 out of 100, indicating money is moving from altcoins to Bitcoin. TIA’s 24-hour trading volume increased 15% to $103 million, which suggests panic selling rather than buying.

Why it matters:

• Traders are moving away from riskier altcoins like TIA as Bitcoin’s dominance grows (+0.12% to 58.26%).
• Negative funding rates on derivatives exchanges show traders are betting on price declines.
• However, if Bitcoin stabilizes, oversold altcoins like TIA might see a short-term bounce.

Conclusion

TIA’s recent price drop is driven by a combination of increased token supply from unlocks, weak technical signals, and a cautious market environment. While Celestia’s modular blockchain technology (such as Bullet’s Layer 2 using Celestia Data Availability) offers promising long-term potential, short-term challenges are weighing on the token.

What to watch next:
Can TIA hold the $1.34 support level before the October 12 token unlock? If it breaks below this, algorithmic traders may push the price down further toward the $1.20–$1.25 range, where more liquidity is available.

What could affect the price of TIA?

Celestia’s price depends on technology upgrades, token releases, and overall market trends.

1. Matcha Upgrade – Improves scalability and cuts inflation from 5% to 2.5%, potentially boosting TIA’s usefulness.
2. Token Unlocks – Over $13 million worth of TIA tokens will become available in October 2025, which could increase selling pressure.
3. Technical Indicators – Current signals like a low RSI (43) and weak moving averages suggest possible price swings soon.

In-Depth Look

1. Matcha Upgrade & Tokenomics (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening:
Celestia’s upcoming v6 “Matcha” upgrade, already live on the Arabica testnet (source), will increase block size by 15 times (to 128MB), reduce inflation to 2.5%, and remove restrictions on cross-chain bridges. These improvements aim to make TIA more valuable as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi) and as a key part of modular blockchain networks.

Why it matters:
Lower inflation means fewer new tokens flooding the market, which can make TIA more scarce and valuable. The bigger block size allows more data storage (“blobspace”), potentially increasing demand. If adoption picks up after the mainnet launch expected around late 2025, TIA’s price might become less tied to general market downturns.

2. Token Unlocks & Investor Activity (Negative Outlook)

What’s happening:

• More than $13 million worth of TIA tokens will be unlocked between October 5 and 12, 2025, adding about 0.9% more tokens into circulation (source).
• In July 2025, Polychain Capital sold its remaining $62.5 million stake in TIA back to the Celestia Foundation, which plans to redistribute these tokens gradually to new investors until November.

Why it matters:
Past experience shows that when large token unlocks happen, prices can drop sharply—as seen in 2024 when TIA’s supply doubled and its price fell 95%. Although the Foundation’s slow redistribution helps prevent sudden sell-offs, investor confidence remains fragile.

3. Technical & Market Sentiment (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating the token is neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD histogram is slightly positive (+0.010), hinting at a possible price reversal. However, TIA’s price is below key moving averages, including the 200-day average ($2.10 vs. current $1.44).
• The Fear & Greed Index sits at a neutral 55, and the altcoin season index is at 54, showing no strong market bias toward risk-taking.

Why it matters:
If TIA’s price breaks above the $1.71 resistance level, it could trigger a short-term rally as traders cover their positions. Still, broader market challenges, like Bitcoin’s dominance at 58.2%, may limit gains.

Conclusion

Celestia’s price is caught between promising technology upgrades and ongoing token supply increases. The Matcha upgrade and growing use of modular blockchains offer long-term growth potential. However, the large token unlocks in October and weak technical indicators present short-term risks. Keep an eye on the $1.50 support level: falling below it could lead to retesting the 2025 lows near $1.32, while holding above might indicate buyers stepping in.

Will Celestia’s expanding modular ecosystem outweigh the pressure from token unlocks?

What are people saying about TIA?

Celestia’s community is divided between hopes for a price breakout and worries about token unlocks. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Breakout buzz – Traders are targeting $2.20 to $4.20 after a recent price channel breakout
2. Unlock anxiety – Daily token releases raise concerns about increased selling pressure
3. Insider moves – Polychain’s $62.5 million stake sale has sparked distrust

Deep Dive

1. @VipRoseTr: Channel Breakout Targets $4.20 🐃

"Breaking upper resistance at $6.20! Targets: $2.20 → $4.20"
– @VipRoseTr (15.2K followers · 284K impressions · 2025-09-10 15:19 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a bullish signal for Celestia (TIA). Technical traders see the breakout as a sign that momentum is shifting upward. However, the current price ($1.44) is still well below these target levels.

2. @kerimcalender: Token Unlock Concerns 😟

"995K TIA unlocked daily – down to 344K in 55 days. Vital for price!"
– @kerimcalender (8.7K followers · 167K impressions · 2025-09-06 13:17 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a bearish factor. Daily token unlocks increase the number of tokens available to sell by about 0.12%, which translates to roughly $1.43 million in potential selling pressure each day at current prices.

3. CoinMarketCap News: Polychain’s Strategic Exit 🚨

"Polychain sells remaining $62.5M TIA stake pre-staking changes"
– CoinMarketCap (Source · 2025-07-24 18:51 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This news has mixed implications. While the Celestia foundation buying the stake helps avoid a large sell-off on the open market, it also fuels concerns about insiders having an advantage in how tokens are distributed and managed.

Conclusion

The outlook for Celestia (TIA) is mixed. On one hand, technical analysis points to potential price gains, but on the other, fundamental issues like ongoing token unlocks create selling pressure. About 65.6% of the circulating supply is still locked and will be released over time, which is a key risk. Watch the $1.43 to $1.45 price range closely—if it breaks below this support, losses could accelerate. Holding above this level might encourage short-term buying. The upcoming Lotus upgrade, expected around late July 2025, could change staking rules and act as a major catalyst for price movement.

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia is managing token unlocks and growing its ecosystem while facing downward market pressures. Here are the key updates:

1. October Token Unlocks (October 5, 2025) – $9.6 million worth of TIA tokens were released, part of a larger $1 billion+ wave of token unlocks across the crypto market.
2. Bullet L2 Integration (September 29, 2025) – Bullet, a decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana, is using Celestia to improve data handling and scalability.
3. Sell Pressure Concerns (September 22, 2025) – TIA experienced volatility due to $13 million in weekly token unlocks.

In-Depth Look

1. October Token Unlocks (October 5, 2025)

What happened:
Celestia unlocked 9.62 million TIA tokens, worth about $13.8 million at the time of release. This was part of a larger trend, with over $1 billion in crypto tokens being unlocked across various projects like Aptos and Avalanche. When tokens are unlocked, it means more supply enters the market, which can lead to selling pressure if demand doesn’t keep up.

Why it matters:
This is generally seen as a negative (bearish) factor for TIA in the short term because early investors and team members might sell their tokens. However, since the unlocks are spread out over time rather than all at once, the immediate impact might be less severe. Traders are watching closely to see if buyers will step in to support the price.
(Source: Cointribune)

2. Bullet L2 Integration (September 29, 2025)

What happened:
Bullet, a decentralized exchange for perpetual contracts built on Solana, announced it will use Celestia’s technology to handle data availability in its Layer 2 (L2) solution. This integration aims to offer fast transaction speeds, with test networks showing latency as low as 1.2 milliseconds.

Why it matters:
This is a positive (bullish) development for TIA because it shows that Celestia’s modular blockchain technology is gaining real-world adoption. As more platforms like Bullet use Celestia, demand for TIA tokens—used for fees and staking—could increase over time.
(Source: Blockworks)

3. Sell Pressure Concerns (September 22, 2025)

What happened:
In late September, about $13 million worth of TIA tokens were unlocked, representing roughly 0.9% of the total supply. This contributed to a 7% drop in TIA’s price over the week. The token’s performance was weaker compared to other projects like Solana and Worldcoin during a broader market sell-off.

Why it matters:
This situation is somewhat negative for TIA because token unlocks can increase selling pressure, especially in a weak market. However, Celestia’s trading volume is relatively high, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 8.9% compared to the market average of around 5.8%. This suggests there is enough liquidity to handle the selling without causing extreme price swings.
(Source: Crypto.news)

Conclusion

Celestia is balancing its ecosystem growth with the challenges posed by ongoing token unlocks. While the integration with Bullet highlights Celestia’s technical strengths, investors remain cautious about the potential for increased token supply to weigh on prices. Watching daily trading volumes and staking activity will provide important clues about how well TIA can handle these pressures moving forward.