Why did the price of TIA go up?

Celestia (TIA) increased by 1.98% in the last 24 hours, standing out as the broader crypto market mostly stayed flat. Here’s why:

1. Renewed Interest in Modular Design – Focus is back on Celestia’s role in providing data availability for Ethereum Layer 2 solutions.
2. Big Changes in Token Supply – A governance proposal aims to cut TIA’s new token issuance by 95%, which could make the token more scarce.
3. Strategic Token Buybacks – The Celestia Foundation bought Polychain’s $62.5 million stake, reducing the chance of large token sales soon.

In-Depth Look

1. Growing Momentum for Modular Blockchains (Positive for TIA)

What’s happening: There’s renewed discussion about Ethereum’s challenges with data availability. Recent analysis shows that Layer 2 solutions on Ethereum are burning 87% less ETH than before. This opens the door for Celestia to take on more of this data storage work.

Why it matters: As Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem grows, projects that use Celestia for cheaper data storage could increase demand for TIA tokens. However, this is still early — only about 30 rollups currently use Celestia.

What to watch: Check Celestia’s weekly data usage on their dashboard. Consistent growth above 50,000 data blobs per week will show real adoption.

2. Major Changes to Token Supply (Positive for TIA)

What’s happening: A governance proposal is set to reduce TIA’s yearly new token issuance from 8% down to 0.25% starting in 2026, and add fee burning to reduce supply further.

Why it matters: Combined with the current staking rewards of about 0.98%, this could make TIA a deflationary token (meaning fewer tokens over time). Similar supply cuts in other cryptocurrencies, like Ethereum’s EIP-1559, have led to price increases. Still, TIA’s price is down 95% from its all-time high, so caution is needed.

What to watch: The governance vote is expected by November 1. Approval requires more than 60% support.

3. Token Buybacks and Supply Control (Mixed Impact)

What’s happening: On July 24, the Celestia Foundation purchased Polychain’s remaining 43.4 million TIA tokens (worth $62.5 million at $1.44 each). These tokens will be gradually released through mid-November.

Why it matters: This move prevents a large, sudden sell-off but daily token releases of about 344,000 TIA (around $351,000) continue. The foundation now controls over 15% of the total supply, which raises some concerns about centralization but helps stabilize the market in the short term.

Conclusion

TIA’s recent price increase is driven more by strategic changes in token supply and interest in modular blockchain technology than by widespread adoption. While cutting inflation and managing token supply could support prices, TIA is still trading 92% below its 2024 peak, and on-chain usage remains low.

What to watch next: Will Celestia attract over 50 active rollups by 2026 to justify its $800 million valuation? Keep an eye on partnership announcements in Q4 and trends in data blob volume.

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What could affect the price of TIA?

Celestia’s future price depends on balancing important protocol upgrades with a challenging market for altcoins.

1. Matcha Upgrade – Inflation cut to 2.5% plus new tools for cross-chain liquidity (positive)
2. Tokenomics Changes – Staking rewards locked up and a new governance proposal (mixed)
3. Market Challenges – Bitcoin dominance at 59% and a cautious altcoin market (negative)

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Inflation Control (Positive)

Overview:
The Matcha upgrade, which has been live since October 2025, cut Celestia’s (TIA) annual inflation rate from 5% down to 2.5%. There are plans to reduce it even further to 0.25% through a new Proof-of-Governance system. This update also follows CIP-41, which raises validator commission rates to balance the lower token issuance. Additionally, Celestia increased its blobspace capacity to 128MB blocks, making it more attractive for Ethereum Layer 2 projects looking for cheaper data storage (Celestia Blog).

What this means:
Lower inflation means TIA tokens become scarcer, which can increase their value over time. The expanded blobspace could generate more fees if more projects start using Celestia. A similar example is Ethereum’s EIP-1559 upgrade, which helped boost ETH’s value even during tough market conditions.

2. Staking Dynamics & Venture Capital Unlocks (Mixed)

Overview:
In July 2025, Polychain Capital sold its remaining $62.5 million stake in TIA to the Celestia Foundation. These tokens will unlock gradually through November. The upcoming Lotus upgrade will lock staking rewards in line with vesting schedules, which should reduce the pressure from early investors selling their tokens (The Block).

What this means:
While the large sale was managed to avoid flooding the market, TIA’s price remains sensitive to market sentiment. For example, it dropped 44% in 30 days during a broader decline in decentralized application tokens.

3. Market Challenges & Altcoin Weakness (Negative)

Overview:
Bitcoin currently holds about 59.13% market dominance (as of October 25, 2025), meaning investors are favoring Bitcoin over alternative cryptocurrencies like TIA. The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 32/100, indicating fear in the market. TIA has been hit hard, with an 83% drop over the past year and relatively low trading activity (turnover ratio of 7.2%).

What this means:
During periods when Bitcoin dominates, altcoins like TIA often underperform. Until Bitcoin’s dominance falls below 55%, demand for modular blockchain tokens like Celestia may stay low.

Conclusion

TIA’s price outlook depends on whether the benefits from the Matcha upgrade and growing adoption can outweigh the current market headwinds facing altcoins. Reduced inflation and Ethereum’s data availability challenges offer long-term potential, but short-term risks include low liquidity and strong Bitcoin dominance. The key question is: Will the number of daily active rollups on Celestia double before the next major token unlock in November 2025?

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What are people saying about TIA?

The Celestia (TIA) community is divided between optimism about modular blockchain technology and concerns based on recent price trends. Here’s what’s currently shaping the conversation:

1. “$TIA at $1 is ETH gas for data layers” – Excitement about modular blockchains vs. risks in adoption
2. New Ethereum-based decentralized exchange (DEX) launch boosts hopes for Celestia’s ecosystem – Positive outlook on interoperability
3. Polychain’s $62.5 million token sale approaching – Worries about token supply increase clash with plans to reduce inflation

Deep Dive

1. @MrMinNin: Quiet Strength in Modular Blockchains (Positive)

“At around $1, the market is overlooking Celestia – but the next wave of data-layer technology could change that.”
– @MrMinNin (21K followers · 287K impressions · Oct 22, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This view is optimistic for TIA, seeing it as an undervalued infrastructure token that could gain demand as rollup technologies grow. However, the broader adoption of modular blockchains like Celestia is still uncertain.

2. @checkmatexxxxxx: Ethereum’s Challenges Could Benefit Celestia (Positive)

“As Layer 2 solutions scale, Ethereum earns less from data blobs. Moving data availability to Celestia makes sense.”
– @checkmatexxxxxx (44K followers · 612K impressions · Oct 18, 2025)
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What this means: This is a positive long-term outlook if Ethereum’s network congestion pushes projects to use Celestia for data availability. Short-term gains depend on how quickly Layer 2 projects migrate.

3. CoinMarketCap: Price Support at $1 Under Pressure (Negative)

“TIA dropped nearly 8% on Friday, falling below the 20-day simple moving average. Resistance at $1.64 is key.”
– CoinMarketCap Analysis (3.2M followers · Jul 9, 2025)
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What this means: Technical indicators suggest continued price volatility. If TIA stays below $1.50, it could lead to more selling pressure and liquidations.

Conclusion

The overall sentiment around Celestia is mixed. There’s optimism about its role in modular blockchains and Ethereum’s scaling challenges, but concerns remain about token supply increases and weak price momentum. Keep an eye on the October 20 token unlock ($939,000 worth) to see if early investors hold or sell. For now, TIA’s future depends on whether the promise of new blockchain infrastructure can overcome broader market challenges.

What is the latest news about TIA?

Celestia is managing market challenges while growing its ecosystem. Here are the latest highlights:

1. Ethereal DEX Mainnet Launch (October 22, 2025) – The first Ethena-native decentralized exchange (DEX) is now live on Celestia’s data availability layer.
2. Market Crash Hits TIA (October 22, 2025) – TIA’s price dropped 10% following a $20 billion liquidation event and concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions.
3. Bunq Offers TIA Staking in Europe (October 21, 2025) – Dutch digital bank Bunq partners with Kraken to provide flexible staking options for TIA holders.

In-Depth Look

1. Ethereal DEX Mainnet Launch (October 22, 2025)

What happened:
Ethereal, a decentralized exchange approved by Ethena’s community, launched its early mainnet version on Celestia’s data availability layer. It runs trades on its own Ethereum-compatible blockchain (called Ethereal Chain), uses Celestia to store data blobs, and relies on Arbitrum for final transaction settlement.

Why it matters:
This launch strengthens Celestia’s role as a modular blockchain infrastructure provider. Projects like Ethereal paying to use Celestia’s data storage could increase demand for TIA tokens over time. However, wider adoption depends on growth in rollup technologies (layer-2 scaling solutions). (The Defiant)

2. Market Crash Hits TIA (October 22, 2025)

What happened:
TIA’s price fell 10% within a day as the crypto market faced a $20 billion liquidation event and worries about trade restrictions between the U.S. and China. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 29, indicating extreme fear among investors. Bitcoin’s market dominance increased to 59.13%, putting pressure on alternative coins like TIA.

Why it matters:
TIA’s price movement shows it is closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance and sensitive to market risk. Still, buyers purchased $5.49 million worth of TIA last week, suggesting some confidence in its support level around $1. (Crypto.news)

3. Bunq Offers TIA Staking in Europe (October 21, 2025)

What happened:
Bunq, the second-largest digital bank in Europe, launched flexible TIA staking through Kraken. Users can earn up to 8.25% annual percentage yield (APY) after fees, with no lockup period required. This service is designed for everyday users across the European Union.

Why it matters:
Making TIA staking accessible to mainstream users could boost retail participation. However, Bunq charges a 25% fee on staking rewards, and only about half of the available TIA assets are currently staked, which might limit enthusiasm. Regulatory uncertainties also remain a factor. (Cointribune)

Conclusion

Celestia is facing challenges from overall market volatility and weakness in alternative cryptocurrencies but continues to build important partnerships like Ethereal DEX and Bunq to increase its utility. The key question is: Can growth in Celestia’s modular ecosystem balance out the broader market risks? Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s market share and Celestia’s data availability transaction numbers for insights.

What is expected in the development of TIA?

Celestia’s roadmap is focused on building the infrastructure needed to scale modular blockchains. Key upcoming milestones include:

1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2026) – Increasing data storage capacity for rollups.
2. Lazy Bridging (2026) – Making it easier to move liquidity between Celestia rollups and other blockchains.
3. Proof of Governance (2027) – Changing how staking rewards work to reduce token supply and lower node costs.

Deep Dive

1. Scaling Blobspace (2025–2026)

Overview: Celestia plans to expand its blobspace, which is the data storage area used by rollups (a type of blockchain scaling solution). This will help handle more data as demand grows, aiming to lead in data availability throughput. The team will improve data availability sampling (DAS) to manage bigger data blocks efficiently.

What this means:

• Positive: More data availability means rollups pay more fees, which burns more TIA tokens, potentially increasing their value.
• Risk: Competitors like EigenDA and NearDA might slow down Celestia’s adoption.

2. Lazy Bridging (2026)

Overview: This is a lightweight protocol designed to make it easier to transfer liquidity (funds) between Celestia rollups and other popular blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.

What this means:

• Positive: Simplifies multi-chain applications, increasing the usefulness of TIA as a currency for settling transactions.
• Risk: The feature’s success depends on many rollups adopting Celestia, which might be a challenge.

3. Proof of Governance (2027)

Overview: Celestia plans to overhaul its staking system by replacing inflation-based rewards with a system that burns fees, aiming to make TIA deflationary (reducing total supply). This would also lower the costs for running nodes.

What this means:

• Positive: Lower staking rewards (from 8% to 0.25%) could reduce selling pressure on TIA and shrink the overall supply, potentially increasing value.
• Risk: Validators (those who secure the network) might oppose lower rewards, which could impact network security.

Conclusion

Celestia is focusing on scaling its infrastructure and improving cross-chain compatibility to become a key player in modular blockchains. These upgrades could improve TIA’s value and usefulness, but success depends on developer support and competing effectively with rivals like EigenLayer. The big question remains: Will modular blockchains attract more builders than traditional all-in-one blockchains?

What updates are there in the TIA code base?

Celestia’s software recently got major upgrades that improve how it works with other blockchains and make its token system stronger.

1. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Added cross-chain transfers and cut inflation by a third.
2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 2025) – Suggested locking staking rewards to reduce selling pressure.
3. BitArray Fix (October 16, 2025) – Fixed a serious bug that affected block validation and network stability.

Deep Dive

1. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)

What happened: Celestia’s version 4 mainnet upgrade introduced a new feature called Hyperlane, which allows users to send Celestia’s native token, TIA, directly between Celestia and other blockchains like Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. At the same time, the upgrade lowered the token inflation rate from 7.2% to 5%, reducing how many new tokens are created each year. Also, staking rewards for locked tokens now follow the same schedule as token vesting, preventing early withdrawals.

Why it matters: This is good news for TIA holders. Cross-chain transfers can increase demand for Celestia’s “blobspace” (the data storage space on its network), while lower inflation means fewer new tokens flooding the market. Node operators need to update their software to keep running smoothly.
(Source)

2. Proof-of-Governance Proposal (June 24, 2025)

What happened: A governance proposal was introduced to cut TIA’s inflation even further—from 5% down to 0.25%. It also suggests locking staking rewards in proportion to how long tokens are vested (locked). This aims to stop a practice where early investors sell their staking rewards immediately, even though their original tokens are still locked.

Why it matters: This proposal could help reduce selling pressure on TIA, which is positive for the token’s value. However, it needs community approval to take effect. Stakers might have less access to rewards in the short term but could benefit from a scarcer token supply over time.
(Source)

3. BitArray Fix (October 16, 2025)

What happened: A critical bug was fixed that caused some nodes to reject valid blocks because of how validator votes were handled. This bug led to about 9 hours of network instability on October 14. The fix improved how vote signatures are verified, especially for accounts with locked or vested tokens.

Why it matters: This fix makes the Celestia network more stable and reliable, which is great for everyone using or running the network. Node operators should update to version 1.8.2 or higher to get this fix.
(Source)

Conclusion

Celestia is actively improving its technology to better connect with other blockchains, strengthen its token system, and keep the network stable. The Lotus upgrade and governance proposals aim to make TIA a key part of modular blockchain infrastructure, while recent bug fixes ensure smoother operation. It will be interesting to see how developer activity and community engagement evolve as these updates take hold.