What could affect the price of TAO?
TAO’s price movement reflects a balance between advances in AI technology and trends in the cryptocurrency market.
- Halving Event – The first TAO halving in December 2025 will cut the daily supply by half, testing how demand responds.
- Institutional Holdings – Public companies currently hold over 70,000 TAO, staking it to earn 10% returns and influence governance.
- Subnet Competition – More than 63 AI subnets compete for rewards; success depends on real-world AI applications gaining traction.
Deep Dive
1. Halving Event (Mixed to Positive Impact)
Overview:
On December 12, 2025, TAO’s first halving will reduce the daily issuance from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO, similar to Bitcoin’s approach to creating scarcity. The current annual inflation rate is about 26%, which will drop to roughly 13% after the halving. Since mining TAO requires powerful GPUs, smaller miners may find it less profitable and exit, potentially concentrating mining power.
What this means:
With fewer new coins entering the market, selling pressure from miners could decrease, potentially pushing prices up if demand from institutions and retail investors remains strong. However, if the growth of AI subnets slows down (only 3 out of 63 subnets generated noticeable revenue by Q3 2025), the positive effect of reduced supply might be limited.
2. Institutional Holdings (Positive Impact)
Overview:
Companies like xTAO (holding 41,538 TAO) and TAO Synergies (42,111 TAO) control about 0.8% of the circulating supply. These firms stake their TAO to earn around 10% annual returns, locking up liquidity. Exchange-traded products (ETPs), such as Safello’s physically backed TAO product listed on Deutsche Börse, make it easier for investors to access TAO.
What this means:
When institutions hold large amounts of TAO, it reduces the number of coins available for trading, which can increase price volatility. If these firms continue buying like MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin, their demand could balance out the selling pressure from the halving. However, large holdings also raise concerns about centralizing control over Bittensor’s governance, which challenges its decentralized principles (xTAO).
3. Subnet Competition & AI Adoption (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Bittensor’s subnet software development kit (SDK), launched in Q2 2025, allows developers to create specialized AI networks. Some subnets, like basilica (SN39), saw a 655% price increase in August, but most have yet to achieve significant commercial success. Competitors like Fetch.ai focus on enterprise partnerships, while TAO emphasizes open-source, decentralized AI models.
What this means:
TAO’s value depends on whether decentralized AI can prove to be more cost-effective and efficient than centralized AI providers like OpenAI and Anthropic. The Dynamic TAO upgrade in February 2025 links coin emissions to subnet performance, rewarding quality projects but potentially penalizing slower adoption (ACT vs TAO).
Conclusion
TAO’s outlook for 2025 depends largely on how well the market handles the December halving and whether AI subnets can demonstrate real-world value. While institutional investments and ETPs provide steady demand, the timeline for widespread AI adoption remains uncertain. The key question is: Will TAO’s decentralized machine learning models become commercially viable before the halving reduces supply significantly? Keep an eye on subnet revenue growth and institutional buying trends.
What are people saying about TAO?
Bittensor's TAO token is navigating between excitement about AI and the reality of its price movements. Here’s what’s happening right now:
- Big investors are buying – Public companies are accumulating TAO tokens
- Halving event coming – The first TAO halving in December 2025 is creating buzz about scarcity
- Price resistance – TAO keeps hitting a wall between $325 and $434
- AI network growth vs. token volatility – More validators joining, but some token volatility remains
Deep Dive
1. @taocat_agent: Institutional Treasury Moves Bullish
"Bittensor is a thriving ecosystem where innovation reigns. That £2.5bn market cap speaks volumes about decentralized potential."
– @taocat_agent (32K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-20 17:23 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for TAO. Companies listed on Nasdaq, like TAO Synergies and xTAO, hold over 83,000 TAO tokens (worth more than $26 million), which creates steady demand.
2. @getmasafi: Halving Countdown Mixed
"DTAO sentiment is down bad, but TAO halving (Dec 12, 2025) could flip the script. Scarcity will kick in. Competition drives innovation."
– @getmasafi (89K followers · 650K impressions · 2025-07-31 18:25 UTC)
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What this means: This is cautiously optimistic. While halvings usually push prices up by reducing supply, Bittensor’s unique Dynamic TAO model makes the outcome less predictable.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Resistance Struggles Bearish
"TAO faces rejection at 20-day SMA ($322-$346). Until breaking $380, range-bound action with bearish bias likely."
– CMC Technical Team (4.2M followers · Post: 2025-07-09 15:26 UTC)
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What this means: Short-term outlook is negative. TAO is trading 54% below its 2024 peak, and momentum indicators suggest weakening strength.
4. The Defiant: Subnet Growth vs Volatility Mixed
"Bittensor subnet market cap nears $1B, but subnet token dTAO faces historic low sentiment despite new liquidity rails."
– Institutional Report (2025-07-24 17:37 UTC)
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What this means: Mixed signals here. The Bittensor network is expanding with over 63 specialized AI subnets, but some related tokens like dTAO are struggling to gain traction.
Conclusion
The overall view on TAO is mixed. Institutional buying supports the token, but technical price resistance and challenges with subnet tokens create uncertainty. With a $3.1 billion market cap, TAO reflects strong bets on AI infrastructure, but a 31% drop over the past year shows risks remain. Watch the $325-$347 price range closely — breaking above could confirm positive halving expectations, while failing to do so might lead to a retest of support near $284. For AI enthusiasts, Bittensor is like the Bitcoin of decentralized intelligence; for traders, it’s a volatile asset waiting for clearer trends.
What is the latest news about TAO?
Bittensor is making strides with institutional adoption and technology improvements, even as it faces market ups and downs. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:
- Safello Launches TAO ETP (August 19, 2025) – Europe’s first physically backed TAO exchange-traded product (ETP) is now available on major stock exchanges.
- Dynamic TAO & Subnet Growth (Q3 2025) – A protocol upgrade introduces flexible token rewards and expands the network to over 63 AI subnets.
- xTAO’s $16 Million Treasury Investment (July 31, 2025) – Publicly traded company xTAO becomes the largest corporate holder of TAO, staking 41,538 tokens.
In-Depth Look
1. Safello Launches TAO ETP (August 19, 2025)
What happened: Swedish company Safello introduced Europe’s first physically backed TAO ETP, which is now listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, Euronext Paris/Amsterdam, and Deutsche Börse Xetra. This product is designed for institutional investors who want regulated access to Bittensor’s decentralized AI network.
Why it matters: This move is positive for TAO because it improves liquidity and adds credibility for institutional investors. However, early trading volumes are modest (around $66 million), indicating cautious interest so far. (Binance)
2. Dynamic TAO & Subnet Growth (Q3 2025)
What happened: Bittensor rolled out the Dynamic TAO model, which adjusts token rewards based on how well each subnet performs. The network has grown to 118 subnets, up from 63 earlier in 2025, with specialized AI tasks like sports predictions and media creation.
Why it matters: This upgrade encourages higher-quality AI contributions, which could increase the network’s usefulness. Still, TAO’s price is about 45% lower than its peak in April 2024 ($650), showing some skepticism about how profitable these subnets will be. (Bitget)
3. xTAO’s $16 Million Treasury Investment (July 31, 2025)
What happened: xTAO, a company listed on Nasdaq, bought 41,538 TAO tokens worth $16 million and staked them to earn roughly a 10% annual return. They plan to grow their validator operations and “build value alongside Bittensor.”
Why it matters: This move is similar to how MicroStrategy invests in Bitcoin, showing strong confidence in TAO’s long-term potential. However, TAO’s price has dropped nearly 12% over the past month, highlighting risks in the decentralized AI space. (The Block)
Conclusion
Bittensor is gaining momentum with institutional interest and technical upgrades, positioning itself as a leader in decentralized AI. However, challenges remain around how profitable the subnets will be and overall market sentiment. The big question is whether subnet revenue can keep up with TAO’s token release schedule after the 2025 halving.
What is expected in the development of TAO?
Bittensor’s roadmap focuses on growing its network, upgrading technology, and attracting institutional users.
- First Halving (December 12, 2025) – Daily TAO token rewards for miners will be cut in half.
- Subnet Expansion (Q4 2025) – Growing to over 150 specialized AI subnets for decentralized computing and AI models.
- EVM Compatibility (2026) – Integrating with Ethereum Virtual Machine to enable cross-chain AI services.
- Dynamic TAO Enhancements (Ongoing) – Improving how rewards and staking work based on subnet performance.
Deep Dive
1. First Halving (December 12, 2025)
Overview:
Bittensor will reduce the daily TAO tokens given to miners from 7,200 to 3,600, similar to Bitcoin’s halving events. This happens every four years until the total supply reaches 21 million. Miners and validators will earn fewer tokens, which may increase competition for efficiency (TokenPost).
What this means:
This is positive for TAO because fewer new tokens can make existing ones more valuable, especially as big holders like TAO Synergies and xTAO increase their stakes. However, smaller miners might leave if rewards drop too much, causing short-term price swings.
2. Subnet Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview:
Bittensor plans to increase its number of subnets from 118 to over 150 by the end of 2025. These subnets focus on AI applications like quantum large language models (SN63), decentralized GPU markets (SN51), and financial crime detection (SN54). Each subnet competes based on AI performance, with TAO rewards linked to results (MessierM87 on X).
What this means:
This is positive for TAO because more specialized subnets attract developers and users, making the network more useful. The risk is that too many subnets without clear value could dilute the network’s effectiveness.
3. EVM Compatibility (2026)
Overview:
Bittensor aims to fully support the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), allowing AI subnets to interact smoothly with Ethereum-based decentralized apps (dApps). This would enable AI models to power decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and other Ethereum-compatible platforms (The CCPress).
What this means:
This is neutral to positive for TAO because it could expand use cases and adoption. However, it might also shift focus away from core AI features. Success depends on how well developers use this capability.
4. Dynamic TAO Enhancements (Ongoing)
Overview:
The Dynamic TAO (dTAO) upgrade, launched in February 2025, changes how rewards are given—from fixed amounts to performance-based payouts tied to subnet quality. Ongoing improvements aim to balance incentives for validators and encourage innovation through features like subnet forking and cloning (Joseph Jacks on X).
What this means:
This is positive for TAO because it rewards high-quality AI work, encouraging better outputs. However, the complex governance system might slow down decision-making.
Conclusion
Bittensor’s roadmap combines scarcity (halving), usefulness (subnets), and compatibility (EVM) to strengthen its role in decentralized AI. With TAO priced at $338.59 as of September 21, 2025, key things to watch are subnet growth, staking returns (around 10% APY), and miner activity after the halving.
Will TAO’s “AI meets Bitcoin” story hold as institutional validators like xTAO take a leading role in governance?
What updates are there in the TAO code base?
Bittensor's technology has made big strides in 2025, focusing on improving how its token works, making it easier for developers to build on the platform, and allowing AI models to work across different blockchain networks.
- Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025) – Changed how rewards are given, now based on how well subnetworks perform, updating the staking system.
- Subnet SDK Launch (Q1 2025) – Provided developers with tools to easily create AI services on subnetworks.
- EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025) – Made it possible to run AI models across Ethereum and other similar blockchains.
Deep Dive
1. Dynamic TAO Upgrade (February 2025)
What happened: Instead of giving out fixed rewards, Bittensor now rewards subnetworks based on their real performance, like how accurate their AI models are or how much data they process. Staking — where users lock up tokens to support the network — is now specific to each subnet, which helps spread out control and decision-making.
Why it matters: This change encourages subnetworks to improve and grow, which could lead to more people using the network and increase the value of TAO tokens. But smaller subnetworks might find it harder to get support, which could lead to some centralization.
(Source)
2. Subnet SDK Launch (Q1 2025)
What happened: Bittensor released a software development kit (SDK) that helps developers build, test, and launch AI services on subnetworks more easily. It includes ready-made templates for common AI tasks like natural language processing and image generation. The SDK also automatically checks the quality of AI models and connects with decentralized storage for saving model data.
Why it matters: This makes it easier for new developers to join and create AI services, which is good for growth. However, more subnetworks competing could mean rewards are spread thinner among participants.
3. EVM Compatibility Rollout (2024–2025)
What happened: Bittensor added support for Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatible blockchains like Ethereum and Polygon. This means AI models and decentralized apps (dApps) built on Bittensor can now work across these popular blockchain networks. A new messaging system handles requests and rewards between chains, while still using TAO as the main currency.
Why it matters: This expands where and how TAO and Bittensor’s AI models can be used, potentially increasing demand. But relying on other blockchains also brings some risks related to smart contract security.
Conclusion
Bittensor’s recent updates focus on making the network more decentralized, empowering developers, and enabling AI models to work across multiple blockchains. The Dynamic TAO and EVM upgrades boost the platform’s long-term potential, but success depends on how well subnetworks grow and how the system prevents unfair competition as it scales. How subnet performance is measured and managed will be key to keeping the network fair and effective.
Why did the price of TAO fall?
Bittensor (TAO) dropped 8.24% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 3.21%. Here’s why:
- Technical Breakdown – TAO’s price fell below important support levels ($340–$350) as momentum weakened.
- Market Pressure – The total crypto market value declined 3.21%, pulling AI-related tokens like TAO down.
- Mixed Sentiment – Even though big investors are buying, negative technical signals outweighed positive news.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)
Overview: TAO’s price dropped below its 20-day moving average ($337.65) and a key Fibonacci retracement level ($348.94). This triggered automatic sell orders and algorithm-driven selling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-7) is at 38.18, showing the coin is oversold but without signs of a rebound yet.
What this means: Traders see this as a loss of short-term upward momentum. The next important support levels are around $340 and between $310–$320, where buyers stepped in back in July 2025.
What to watch: If TAO’s price closes above $340, it could stabilize. But if it falls below $310, it might retest its June 2025 lows near $302.
2. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Negative Impact)
Overview: The entire crypto market’s value dropped 3.21% in 24 hours, with Bitcoin down 3.34% and Ethereum down 2.8%. AI tokens like TAO performed worse, with TAO’s trading volume jumping 159.5% to $168 million, indicating panic selling.
What this means: Broader economic factors, such as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a neutral crypto fear-greed index (47), reduced investors’ willingness to take risks. TAO’s price movement is closely linked to Bitcoin (30-day correlation: 0.72), which increased its downward pressure.
3. Institutional Buying vs. Weak Market Narratives (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Publicly traded companies TAO Synergies and xTAO increased their TAO holdings to 42,111 and 41,538 tokens respectively in August 2025. However, interest in decentralized AI has cooled, with TAO down 30.68% compared to last year.
What this means: While institutional buying provides some mid-term support, everyday traders remain cautious due to TAO’s failure to break above $400 resistance and delays in important network upgrades like EVM compatibility.
Conclusion
TAO’s recent decline is due to technical breakdowns, overall weakness in the crypto sector, and fading excitement around AI tokens. Although public companies accumulating TAO show long-term confidence, short-term traders expect slower growth. Key points to watch: Will TAO hold the $310 support level as the market stabilizes? Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s $57,000 level and updates on TAO’s network development.